The world is facing a coffee deficit(bloombergquint.com)
bloombergquint.com
The world is facing a coffee deficit
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/coffee-trade-reeling-from-virus-faces-nightmare-freight-snags
207 comments
For anyone looking to read more on the container shortage problem, NYT recently published a great piece on it:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business/global-shipping....
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business/global-shipping....
> I am still amazed we can still buy stuff from amazon with 2 day delivery.
Depends on what you are buying I suppose. I was burned by some purchases early on in the pandemic (most notably a printer, something that has been in short stock nearly everywhere) and haven't used amazon or any other online delivery service since.
At least with stores I know it is there in front of me, even if there are shortages.
Depends on what you are buying I suppose. I was burned by some purchases early on in the pandemic (most notably a printer, something that has been in short stock nearly everywhere) and haven't used amazon or any other online delivery service since.
At least with stores I know it is there in front of me, even if there are shortages.
This was highly regional. A year ago, Amazon's delivery broke down entirely where I was living. (Rural community about an hour outside Seattle.)
For several months, Amazon prime delivery was in the 7-10 days range. Seattle quickly recovered, but it wasn't until August or September 2020 that normal prime delivery times returned for us.
For several months, Amazon prime delivery was in the 7-10 days range. Seattle quickly recovered, but it wasn't until August or September 2020 that normal prime delivery times returned for us.
What carrier do they use for delivery out there?
Just taking a wild guess from "rural" that Amazon may be handing off the delivery (or at least the last mile) to USPS. The issues may have been more USPS-related than Amazon stock issues or anything.
Just taking a wild guess from "rural" that Amazon may be handing off the delivery (or at least the last mile) to USPS. The issues may have been more USPS-related than Amazon stock issues or anything.
Mostly UPS. Occasionally FedEx.
You also have to add the inherent instability and fragility of the JIT supply chain system.
Most JIT supply chains can't be deviated more than about 5%-10% variance of volume without becoming abruptly nonlinear. Normal JIT is dependent on being within a narrow range of linear operation. Add positive and negative feedback loops and you have a super fragile system that can be easily disrupted.
Most JIT supply chains can't be deviated more than about 5%-10% variance of volume without becoming abruptly nonlinear. Normal JIT is dependent on being within a narrow range of linear operation. Add positive and negative feedback loops and you have a super fragile system that can be easily disrupted.
Certainly. I dont think any government has been forward thinking enough to build some slack resiliency into the supply chain.
You see some of this at the federal level with food (US) or temporary safeguards by states , to make healthcare delivery during covid simpler (several states abolishing certain licensing rules etc) but I'm not aware of anything meaningfully impacting resilience of supply chain by any actor.
You could argue that spot and forward pricea help, but when you pay x and your stuff ia sitting at port idle with no prospect of moving, then you wonder whats the point of prices anyway.
When i pay for an uber, i know im being picked up when the time estimate tells me, especially if im paying surge pricing. That relationship was broken for shipping, for a big part of 2020 ,well into golden week
You see some of this at the federal level with food (US) or temporary safeguards by states , to make healthcare delivery during covid simpler (several states abolishing certain licensing rules etc) but I'm not aware of anything meaningfully impacting resilience of supply chain by any actor.
You could argue that spot and forward pricea help, but when you pay x and your stuff ia sitting at port idle with no prospect of moving, then you wonder whats the point of prices anyway.
When i pay for an uber, i know im being picked up when the time estimate tells me, especially if im paying surge pricing. That relationship was broken for shipping, for a big part of 2020 ,well into golden week
`To wit` is more of an `id est` rather than an `albeit`, which is how it has incorrectly been used here.
(I'm writing this for the benefit of the ESL folks, not so much as an admonishment)
(I'm writing this for the benefit of the ESL folks, not so much as an admonishment)
So "to wit" ="namely" = "viz" but "ie"(id est) is appropriate when giving a simple example (vs a primary example) or an alternative wording? Albeit= nevertheless=however=on the other hand?
Sorry, these shouldn't be equal signs— no words are truly equal.
Sorry, these shouldn't be equal signs— no words are truly equal.
"i.e." is for giving clarification, not examples
e.g. is for giving examples
there are plenty of resources on the Internet to further explain this
e.g. is for giving examples
there are plenty of resources on the Internet to further explain this
Generally you should be able to replace “i.e.” with “that is” and have your sentence make sense and follow grammar rules. Similarly you should be able to replace “e.g.” with “for example.”
It’s generally ok to write “namely” or “to wit” where you might write “that is [to say]” although “to wit” isn’t very common. For example:
> We use a primitive programming language, namely C++.
> We use a primitive programming language, that is to say C++.
> we mainly use a primitive programming language. C++, that is.
> we mainly use a primitive programming language, to wit C++
It’s generally ok to write “namely” or “to wit” where you might write “that is [to say]” although “to wit” isn’t very common. For example:
> We use a primitive programming language, namely C++.
> We use a primitive programming language, that is to say C++.
> we mainly use a primitive programming language. C++, that is.
> we mainly use a primitive programming language, to wit C++
"i.e." abbreviates "id est", which transliterates from Latin to "that is"; "e.g.", "exempli gratia", "for (the sake of) example". Most other such abbreviations found in English originate and function similarly, such as "cf." ("conferatur", "compare"), "nb." ("nota bene", "note well"), "etc." ("et cetera", "and so on"), etc.
Most people don’t know enough Latin for such translations to help with writing sentences that conform to standard grammar.
True, but looking up abbreviations like these seems often to lead first to the Latin expansion, and figuring out what that means in English provides the necessary grammatical clue. Also, I'm enough of a linguistics nerd to like the way abbreviations like these work for their own sake, so I thought I'd share in case anyone else might be interested too.
TIL, thanks!
There's probably a lot of money to be made solving these problems.
That's just commodities futures. All the fat has been shaved off. Very little to get without highly specialized knowledge - like you're the guy about to block coffee shipments or something.
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Also I think climate change will be a increasing player in events with global disruptions in food, commodities, and industrial goods. Global capitalism has relentlessly optimized for lowest cost, but with minimal to no margin for risks or resiliency.
Having a vast surplus is a very useful form of resiliency. For commodities surplus is equivalent to low prices.
How so? Low prices drive alternate suppliers out of business as well as cutting margin for players in the market from having buffers to deal with mitigations possibly needing capital cost investments to keep bringing commodities to market. e.g. if you have a temporary drought, does the farmer have enough profit such that they have savings or capital lines to buy temporary water supply to get your crop through the dry period, or money to access getting your customs setup for new markets that have had a shortage in the regular markets. Or access to buy or rent new containers in this case possibly.
Demand is price dependent, if the supply drops by say 10% the prices rise aka price X = Supply Y. But, the other way of looking at this if you’re lowering the price below X you need a supply larger than Y.
Sure, economies get used to lower prices. However the excess annual food supply is plenty should some country have a 50% drop in agricultural output you don’t end up with famine just noticeably higher prices. That’s the slack inherent in very low prices and it extends to everything from industrial steel to phosphorus.
Sure, economies get used to lower prices. However the excess annual food supply is plenty should some country have a 50% drop in agricultural output you don’t end up with famine just noticeably higher prices. That’s the slack inherent in very low prices and it extends to everything from industrial steel to phosphorus.
At stable equilibriums maybe you can follow the curve up and down, but if the system has maximized profit then the equilibrium isn’t stable against variation - especially as climate change increases variations.
Farms are subsidized, they are supposed to overproduce and throw anything we don't need away. If that excess produce was used for afforestation it could even become positive sum.
What's the better alternative?
Well, a much better algorithm for actually considering risk chains in logistics (though I suspect there are many to choose from already). But also likely including financial regulation to formally add risks stemming from supply and climate to accounting sheets - akin goodwill (which has it's problems), but making it a much for formalized first class entry into public company accounting is probably the only way to make a shift meaningful.
Proper use of import/export tariffs to incentivize local production and use of commodities.
Also to account for negative externalities such as worker rights, pollution and carbon emissions. Why encourage capital to move production overseas to escape how the community wants its goods to be produced?
To give some hope to some of you: I stopped drinking coffee back in December. I was a heavy drinker before. I stopped because my stomach wouldn’t stop being upset permanently, and I had a sore throat all the time. And no, I didn’t drink cheap shit coffee, quite the opposite.
It all vanished after I stopped drinking coffee. The first day was brutal, the second a bit better. A week later, I was fine. Now I drink green tea all day and feel quite good from a stomach perspective.
And, I truly hope green tea is not transported on the same ships as coffee!
It all vanished after I stopped drinking coffee. The first day was brutal, the second a bit better. A week later, I was fine. Now I drink green tea all day and feel quite good from a stomach perspective.
And, I truly hope green tea is not transported on the same ships as coffee!
I am quite addicted to coffee, but I've given it up multiple times for 1-2 months. What I've found is that I can get off of coffee easily by substituting tea for coffee and then ween myself off tea. I can skip coffee or other forms of caffeine, but I'll get headaches on day 2.
What always brings me back to coffee is that I find myself in a generally mild depressive state when I'm not drinking it. Coffee makes me feel happy.
What always brings me back to coffee is that I find myself in a generally mild depressive state when I'm not drinking it. Coffee makes me feel happy.
I have been drinking coffee for decades and usually drink about 6 - 8 oz cups a day though sometimes I drink more. That is less than the amount I drank while in college. Back then I would drink 2 or 3 12-cup carafes a day.
I like my coffee black and full of flavor. Working in the oilfield, I discovered Community Coffee's New Orleans blend of coffee with chicory. Chicory was used as a coffee substitute back in the day though it has no caffeine. It does have flavor. You can buy that from Community Coffee company and give it a taste.
If you live in the US and want to try something domestic that you may be able to grow yourself then go to your garden supply and buy a yaupon holly. Don't get the dwarf yaupon unless you want to landscape. Get the standard yaupon bush/tree.
It is the only plant native to North America that produces caffeine. It is dead simple to dry the leaves and make a caffeinated tea. It is also evergreen so you can have fresh tea leaves year round though after this year's hard freeze, the trees I have are setting new leaves since the old ones were frozen and dead.
There also vendors selling yaupon tea leaves online if you wanted to try before you buy.
I sometimes trade my cuppa Joe for a cuppa Joe-Bob (the natural name for a coffee substitute that grows in the southern US along the Gulf Coast.)
I like my coffee black and full of flavor. Working in the oilfield, I discovered Community Coffee's New Orleans blend of coffee with chicory. Chicory was used as a coffee substitute back in the day though it has no caffeine. It does have flavor. You can buy that from Community Coffee company and give it a taste.
If you live in the US and want to try something domestic that you may be able to grow yourself then go to your garden supply and buy a yaupon holly. Don't get the dwarf yaupon unless you want to landscape. Get the standard yaupon bush/tree.
It is the only plant native to North America that produces caffeine. It is dead simple to dry the leaves and make a caffeinated tea. It is also evergreen so you can have fresh tea leaves year round though after this year's hard freeze, the trees I have are setting new leaves since the old ones were frozen and dead.
There also vendors selling yaupon tea leaves online if you wanted to try before you buy.
I sometimes trade my cuppa Joe for a cuppa Joe-Bob (the natural name for a coffee substitute that grows in the southern US along the Gulf Coast.)
Hmm, tea isn't strong enough for me. Perhaps I could replace coffee with methamphetamine, if it comes down to it. Sticking with coffee — for now.
Tea has fractions of the mg caffeine that coffee does. It makes sense pharmacologically that you have a higher tolerance than only tea drinkers. I wouldn't recommend using methamphetamine, it is a prescription for ADHD, taking it lightly is not advisable. You can use tea as a tolerance reducer instead, take it on off days instead of coffee.
Methamphetamine is not a prescription for ADHD. Dextroamphetamine, amphetamine, and Methylphenidate are.
They also have controlled release mechanisms and are available in therapeutic doses.
It is not the same thing as buying however much you want of a significantly stronger stimulant and taking and instant hit.
And to anyone not prescribed those medications that are obtaining them for recreational usage, you make an already difficult life of ADHDers much worse, as some are denied an effective, life-changing treatment because of this.
They also have controlled release mechanisms and are available in therapeutic doses.
It is not the same thing as buying however much you want of a significantly stronger stimulant and taking and instant hit.
And to anyone not prescribed those medications that are obtaining them for recreational usage, you make an already difficult life of ADHDers much worse, as some are denied an effective, life-changing treatment because of this.
It also has the unfortunate side effect of being neurotoxic, which is why only the other amphetamines are used therapeutically.
Neurotoxic at high doses that is. Meth is FDA approved for ADHD and used therapeutically, I take it. It’s certainly the cleanest smoothest gentlest and most effective thing I’ve tried and I’ve tried it all.
Can you name a concrete brand or something to this extend?
Because it's certainly far easier to get in pure form on the black market compared to other amphetamines.
Because it's certainly far easier to get in pure form on the black market compared to other amphetamines.
Methamphetamine is sometimes prescribed for ADHD under the name "Desoxyn". While medical professionals appear hesitant to do so, patients who are prescribed Desoxyn rate it much higher than other ADHD drugs.
Yes, I have tried them all. Meth is the best, and most gentle/natural feeling. No question.
Actually (green) tea leaves have more caffeine per gram than coffee beans do, but in general you use more coffee (~60 g/l) for your cup than tea leaves (~12 g/l) and hotter water, so more caffeine is released.
However, tea leaves are safe for consumption, so you could eat them instead (for example as a salad).
However, tea leaves are safe for consumption, so you could eat them instead (for example as a salad).
Or for likely the most common form - Matcha, which is green tea leaves ground to a powder.
Matcha is not terribly common in the US. You can find it, but you have to go out of your way to
I drink Yerba Mate tea as a substitute. It contains more caffeine than other teas, plus you can drink it out of a cool gourd. Might be worth giving a try!
Lose doses of methamphetamine are much smoother and cleaner than coffee
I recently noticed the same thing about depression and coffee after trying to quit several times over the past several years. Even months after the headaches ceased, I generally felt more depressive. Upon resumption of drinking, I started feeling more elevated in mood.
I had a similar experience but I eventually found that sticking to a consistent 8hr sleep schedule and doing a quick 20-30 minute physical warm up first thing in the morning fixed the problem.
My first hypothesis was like the others here - that it somehow screws with my brain chemistry to make me permanently dependent on it for my mood.
Another possibility is that coffee enforces some level of ritual and regularity into my mornings. Since I have a physical dependency on it, I'll go out of my way each morning to get caffeine and usually induce some tangential benefit, whether that be by brewing some coffee (benefit - I usually make breakfast while waiting on it to brew), by going to a coffee shop (benefit - I go for a walk), or by taking preworkout (benefit - I get a workout in).
So I guess if I was able to be super consistent about some alternative positive morning ritual (like a physical warm up) maybe it would fix the problem of feeling more depressed when not drinking it.
Another possibility is that coffee enforces some level of ritual and regularity into my mornings. Since I have a physical dependency on it, I'll go out of my way each morning to get caffeine and usually induce some tangential benefit, whether that be by brewing some coffee (benefit - I usually make breakfast while waiting on it to brew), by going to a coffee shop (benefit - I go for a walk), or by taking preworkout (benefit - I get a workout in).
So I guess if I was able to be super consistent about some alternative positive morning ritual (like a physical warm up) maybe it would fix the problem of feeling more depressed when not drinking it.
I'm totally with you. I drink 1 (sometimes, but rarely, 2) espresso drinks every morning, and it's just joyful. I'd say 80% is the routine/experience, 20% is the actual caffeine. It's just a nice way to start the day.
You could even say it’s the best part of waking up...
Mild depression w/o it for me too. The other reason I tend to get back on it is if I'm hungover. But, I don't drink alcohol often. Tea doesn't seem to help with hangovers.
I've considered experimenting more with matcha and yerba mate.
I've considered experimenting more with matcha and yerba mate.
Black tea with milk is a saviour for hangovers. Mind you, I guess this could be conditioning based on my environment (I'm Irish).
I dropped coffee about two weeks ago, but still drink about a pot of (flavored) decaf a day. Maybe you could get the same mental benefits from the warmth + taste?
Just bear in mind that "decaf" coffee does still contain caffeine—roughly 5-10% of the amount in regular coffee, as I understand it.
I go totally cold turkey every year for ~2 months and have for years (more than a decade). It's a fascinating experience each time, as close to a reset as I think you can get without hard drugs. I sleep better but feel more weary and tired without coffee. I no longer get serious withdrawal when I stop drinking it.
The happy medium for me, and YMMV, but I find now that half-caf is quite satisfying and less sleep-disruptive.
The happy medium for me, and YMMV, but I find now that half-caf is quite satisfying and less sleep-disruptive.
I've been drinking a large cup when I wake up and another cup at 3pm for 6 years straight. I fear it's already too late for me.
I feel the same way with coffee. As far as caffeinated beverages go, coffee is probably the least worrisome.
Coffee is fairly oily and IIRC some of those oils are not good for your heart (although caffeine itself isn't bad for it.) You can make up for this with thicker paper filters but tea is a little healthier.
Any paper filter is fine. The lack of one is what will really do you in.
Following the irreparable failure of my poorly designed and manufactured drip coffee machine, I tried the French press and kettle I'd bought for a camping trip years back and, after that trip fell through, never found occasion to use. The coffee was much better, with a creamy taste and mouthfeel that I'd never experienced before in the beverage, so I didn't bother replacing the drip machine. About a month later, I had my first gallstone.
Since then, I've been using a paper filter - the same cheap recycled ones I used in the drip machine - along with the mesh and plate filters that come with the press. It cost me the creaminess that came with the oils which a paper filter removes, but that first gallstone has also so far been my last, so it's a trade I'm happy to make. Kidney stones are much worse, as I have also had the misfortune to learn, but that doesn't make gallstones pleasant.
That said, even with the paper filter, the coffee's still quite a bit better. Between that, my newfound mistrust of drip machine engineering, and the pleasant physicality that assembling, using, and cleaning the press provides in my morning routine, I expect to stick with it indefinitely.
(You can see the difference between filtered and unfiltered coffee. Unfiltered, it has a deep golden sheen caused by light reflecting from tiny droplets of oil emulsified throughout the liquid. Quite lovely to look at, and very pleasant to drink - until one or another of your organs packs up under the load. Given how easy it would seem for oils already so dispersed to enter the bloodstream, I suppose I'm lucky it was just my gallbladder complaining, and not my heart...)
Following the irreparable failure of my poorly designed and manufactured drip coffee machine, I tried the French press and kettle I'd bought for a camping trip years back and, after that trip fell through, never found occasion to use. The coffee was much better, with a creamy taste and mouthfeel that I'd never experienced before in the beverage, so I didn't bother replacing the drip machine. About a month later, I had my first gallstone.
Since then, I've been using a paper filter - the same cheap recycled ones I used in the drip machine - along with the mesh and plate filters that come with the press. It cost me the creaminess that came with the oils which a paper filter removes, but that first gallstone has also so far been my last, so it's a trade I'm happy to make. Kidney stones are much worse, as I have also had the misfortune to learn, but that doesn't make gallstones pleasant.
That said, even with the paper filter, the coffee's still quite a bit better. Between that, my newfound mistrust of drip machine engineering, and the pleasant physicality that assembling, using, and cleaning the press provides in my morning routine, I expect to stick with it indefinitely.
(You can see the difference between filtered and unfiltered coffee. Unfiltered, it has a deep golden sheen caused by light reflecting from tiny droplets of oil emulsified throughout the liquid. Quite lovely to look at, and very pleasant to drink - until one or another of your organs packs up under the load. Given how easy it would seem for oils already so dispersed to enter the bloodstream, I suppose I'm lucky it was just my gallbladder complaining, and not my heart...)
Id recommend you get yourself an aeropress. It uses a paper filter, and the coffee tastes magnificent, similar to french press for the dark roasts I love. And it leaves itself open to experimenting with different steep times and brewing techniques. Its quite fun to play around with.
After a decade of drinking turkish (I live in the Balkans) I recently switched to a v60 filter pour-over and I'm not coming back.
My gf drinks french press but it's too weak for me.
My gf drinks french press but it's too weak for me.
Regular drip-machine filters work fine in a French press, you just sandwich one into the parts stackup at the plunger's business end. An Aeropress sounds like
fun for coffee experimentalists, but all I require is that my two morning cups be delivered with maximum reliability and minimal fuss, so I'm all set with what I have.
Not to discourage your French press setup (as it sounds lovely!) but I've never encountered "maximum reliability and minimal fuss" better than with an Aeropress. If you're looking for something to try be sure to give it a go!
I mean, the French press makes two cups' worth in one go, which by happy coincidence is exactly as much as I permit myself per day. Having to go through the setup and teardown twice, as the Aeropress's one-cup capacity would appear to require, lacks appeal by comparison. But I'm glad to see that so many Aeropress evangelists have found something that seems to really work well for them!
Yeah, you have to make each serving one-at-a-time, which is a bit of a downside. It's not the best fit if you're hosting and want to brew for guests after a meal. I keep a larger French press for those occasions.
This is super subjective, but I think what "sold" me on the Aeropress was how no-fuss the teardown is compared to anything else I've tried or researched. Everything gets compressed into a dry little puck and it only takes a moment to "pop" into the compost bin. It's nice not to have to worry about the extra work anymore.
This is super subjective, but I think what "sold" me on the Aeropress was how no-fuss the teardown is compared to anything else I've tried or researched. Everything gets compressed into a dry little puck and it only takes a moment to "pop" into the compost bin. It's nice not to have to worry about the extra work anymore.
Aeropress is really the best thing ever. Try it, you don't know what you're missing.
I actually noticed this because I was using an aeropress and thought it'd be more environmentally friendly to get a metal filter. But then my coffee got oilier.
People are so different. Coffee and even a cup of tea will turn me into a raging asshole.
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Buy caffiene pills (Caffiene only nodoz or equivalent) and wean yourself off by lowering your dosage down over a few weeks (“titrate yourself off”). Breaking the pills into smaller amounts during the last week is annoying, but the technique prevents headaches and other symptoms.
And beware that some bags of coffee beans have residual amounts of pesticides/fungicides etcetera which is possibly a cause of your problem. I sometimes get a mild allergic reaction to a coffee supplier, so I have to change suppliers until I find one I am not allergic to. I am pretty sure it is pesticides or another treatment... I am a fairly scientific person who loathes unscientific hypochondriacs: I have reasons to believe it is something in the beans and prior experiences suggest a treatment product.
And beware that some bags of coffee beans have residual amounts of pesticides/fungicides etcetera which is possibly a cause of your problem. I sometimes get a mild allergic reaction to a coffee supplier, so I have to change suppliers until I find one I am not allergic to. I am pretty sure it is pesticides or another treatment... I am a fairly scientific person who loathes unscientific hypochondriacs: I have reasons to believe it is something in the beans and prior experiences suggest a treatment product.
I quit caffeine over a year ago after drinking a lot of coffee (coffee = coffee, espresso, latte, etc). By a lot I mean easily 1-2 coffees before work, 3-4 coffees during work, and another 1-3 after work, every single day, for years and years. This was just because I enjoyed the flavor, not for energy. Eventually I just got tired of how much time I was spending on coffee: if I wasn't drinking coffee, I was basically waiting for the next time I felt like drinking coffee.
Quitting was no issue. I had some light headaches for a day or two but otherwise just went cold turkey overnight. However the relief from just disallowing myself to drink coffee has been incredibly liberating. For me it's been equivalent to sugar or dairy: I really enjoy consuming these things and get no bad effects from them, but quitting is beneficial from the sheer time savings I get.
Anyway, the point is coffee isn't necessary for energy anymore than rice is necessary for a meal. It's all cultural. I spent a long time waking up at 4 am, going through a full day of work, exercise, socializing, etc and having no problems staying awake or going to sleep. Western culture places a high cultural emphasis on coffee (like other things) so we think it's important, just like some hispanic and asian cultures tend to place a high emphasis on rice and so people from those cultures think it's critical.
It's all just habits and it's almost always possible to break habits or learn different ones. If you feel like coffee has a net negative impact on your life, try quitting. It's not necessary at all, and you might enjoy life without it
Quitting was no issue. I had some light headaches for a day or two but otherwise just went cold turkey overnight. However the relief from just disallowing myself to drink coffee has been incredibly liberating. For me it's been equivalent to sugar or dairy: I really enjoy consuming these things and get no bad effects from them, but quitting is beneficial from the sheer time savings I get.
Anyway, the point is coffee isn't necessary for energy anymore than rice is necessary for a meal. It's all cultural. I spent a long time waking up at 4 am, going through a full day of work, exercise, socializing, etc and having no problems staying awake or going to sleep. Western culture places a high cultural emphasis on coffee (like other things) so we think it's important, just like some hispanic and asian cultures tend to place a high emphasis on rice and so people from those cultures think it's critical.
It's all just habits and it's almost always possible to break habits or learn different ones. If you feel like coffee has a net negative impact on your life, try quitting. It's not necessary at all, and you might enjoy life without it
To give another perspective... I drink about 3 cups of coffee a day.
When I quit cold turkey I have a headache so bad I can't do anything at all for 3 days or so, and on day 2 I am bedridden with flu like symptoms(ive tried quitting multiple times).
My reaction to stopping is so severe, but I notice no issues while regularly consuming coffee other than I need it 1 or so hours max after I wake or I will have a headache all day.
I also feel low energy for weeks after stopping coffee.
When I quit cold turkey I have a headache so bad I can't do anything at all for 3 days or so, and on day 2 I am bedridden with flu like symptoms(ive tried quitting multiple times).
My reaction to stopping is so severe, but I notice no issues while regularly consuming coffee other than I need it 1 or so hours max after I wake or I will have a headache all day.
I also feel low energy for weeks after stopping coffee.
Of course, don't go cold turkey, that's just stupid. You're taking a vasoconstrictor (something that makes blood vessels narrower), which results in a widening of the blood vessels as a compensation. If the vasoconstriction disappears suddenly then your vessels become too wide suddenly (this is what causes the headaches as far as I understand it). If you ease off slowly the compensation will also reduce slowly.
Last year I was getting really run down and lethargic over the course of a couple months. At one point I tried going for a jog, but couldn't go more than 20-30 seconds without having to walk. I was naturally drinking a lot of coffee to try and compensate for the apparent lack of energy. I was also experiencing anxiety bordering on feelings of panic, and for a while I thought it could have been caused by too much coffee. I tried taking a break for a week, but it didn't help. At one point I even tried to play a level of Tomb Raider and had to stop after 10 minutes because it made me feel anxious and panicked like I was going to pass out.
It turned out that my heart rate had progressively slowed down over a couple months, dropping as low as 21 beats per minute. I was acclimated to it at rest, but my heart wouldn't beat faster regardless of activity level. I had to get a pacemaker that instantly jumped my rate up to 110 bpm. My blood pressure also shot up to something like 160/110. I had the worst "caffeine" headache I can remember from that. It was a long few days until everything balanced out.
I cherish my morning ritual pour-over or aero-press.
It turned out that my heart rate had progressively slowed down over a couple months, dropping as low as 21 beats per minute. I was acclimated to it at rest, but my heart wouldn't beat faster regardless of activity level. I had to get a pacemaker that instantly jumped my rate up to 110 bpm. My blood pressure also shot up to something like 160/110. I had the worst "caffeine" headache I can remember from that. It was a long few days until everything balanced out.
I cherish my morning ritual pour-over or aero-press.
21, wow...
Lol, yeah. I realized something was wrong when my resting heart rate was in the low 50s, but the cardiologist I talked to wasn't too concerned about it being an emergency, so just scheduled an echocardiogram and a treadmill test. When I went into the hospital for that, I was at 34bpm, but the echocardiogram technician kept a straight face and said, "all I do is take the pictures". When I went to the next room for the treadmill test, I gave the nurse practitioner a warning that I would most certainly black out after 20 seconds. She hooked me up to a 12-lead ECG, looked at the waveforms, then stepped out of the room nervously. She came back and said they were sending me to the ER on a stretcher! Being capable of walking, I negotiated down to a wheelchair. While I waited in the triage area with a portable ECG monitor on my lap, as various paramedics came in and out they glanced down at the display, got excited in disbelief about how I was upright and smiling rather than unconscious, then asked if they could glance through my chart for the learning experience.
21 bpm was measured while I was bundled up like a burrito in a microwave for a cardiac MRI. The machine has to synchronize to your pulse to only collect data between beats. Since my rate was so low, each scan pass took about 4x longer than usual, while having to hold my breath. That was a very long hour of my life.
For a while it was a bit of a Dr. House episode, between the root cause being unknown, and the pacemaker having a reliability issue that needed debugging. I estimate about a dozen cardiologists poked and prodded me. They even had a "conference" with something like 30 people, and it being a teaching hospital, they also did a case study.
I'm doing a lot better now, thanks to smart doctors and the marvels of modern medical technology.
21 bpm was measured while I was bundled up like a burrito in a microwave for a cardiac MRI. The machine has to synchronize to your pulse to only collect data between beats. Since my rate was so low, each scan pass took about 4x longer than usual, while having to hold my breath. That was a very long hour of my life.
For a while it was a bit of a Dr. House episode, between the root cause being unknown, and the pacemaker having a reliability issue that needed debugging. I estimate about a dozen cardiologists poked and prodded me. They even had a "conference" with something like 30 people, and it being a teaching hospital, they also did a case study.
I'm doing a lot better now, thanks to smart doctors and the marvels of modern medical technology.
I don't understand why people have to go cold turkey. That's brutal. When I need to wean off caffeine, I keep Excedrin handy. Yes, it has caffeine. That's the point. I take it when the headache cranks up, it knocks it down, I don't take it again until the next headache. I never get a truly bad headache that way, and it only takes a few days to be completely weaned.
I tapered off of energy drinks at the beginning of the pandemic (I didn't want to be dependent on them, just in case). I simply drank 1 fluid ounce (about 28g by weight) less per day until it was 0. I'm sure I could have cut down faster, but I didn't need to and it was easy enough that way.
Speaking of Excedrin, I chatted with a doctor online once, and he said he knew of people who were addicted to Excedrin and it was dangerous (presumably because of the acetaminophen, which can kill you if overdone) and people should throw it away. I can see his point since that medicine combines an addictive drug (caffeine) with a dangerous one. Probably a fringe opinion, but thought that was interesting.
Speaking of Excedrin, I chatted with a doctor online once, and he said he knew of people who were addicted to Excedrin and it was dangerous (presumably because of the acetaminophen, which can kill you if overdone) and people should throw it away. I can see his point since that medicine combines an addictive drug (caffeine) with a dangerous one. Probably a fringe opinion, but thought that was interesting.
That is interesting, I've never heard of anyone becoming addicted to it. It is hands-down the most effective headache pill for me (even though I have been completely off caffeine for years now). I would hate it if they outlawed it; though reconstructing an equivalent would be pretty straightforward.
I feel like people are slowly waking up to how insane our collective addiction to (and glorification of) caffeine actually is.
I feel that addictions are only a problem if they are a problem. As far as we can tell, non-crazy-quantity coffee drinking isn't bad for you, might be helpful for some things, and tastes delicious.
The only downside is that I have to be slightly prepared if I am not going to be able to easily consume my regular doses of caffeine. And if I want to cut/stop, it takes about a week or so to do so comfortably.
As for the glorification, I think it's really a glorification of workaholics, and 'needing coffee to get through yet another pile of TPS Reports' is more a badge of honor than anything else.
The only downside is that I have to be slightly prepared if I am not going to be able to easily consume my regular doses of caffeine. And if I want to cut/stop, it takes about a week or so to do so comfortably.
As for the glorification, I think it's really a glorification of workaholics, and 'needing coffee to get through yet another pile of TPS Reports' is more a badge of honor than anything else.
I think that many addictions can be ok, so long as you understand how much power they have over you and keep a wary eye on them.
An addiction can work well in some environment but completely destroy you if your environment changes.
Also, I'm not convinced that caffeine addiction is completely overcome in the week or so it takes for the physical withdrawal. Even for myself when I decide to go through long periods of decaffeination, I find that my energy and motivation is significantly deteriorated from when I regularly caffeinate. Sometimes I wonder if my regular use as a college student permanently altered my brain chemistry. On the flip side, maybe this use set me up for the early career success that I might not otherwise have achieved.
An addiction can work well in some environment but completely destroy you if your environment changes.
Also, I'm not convinced that caffeine addiction is completely overcome in the week or so it takes for the physical withdrawal. Even for myself when I decide to go through long periods of decaffeination, I find that my energy and motivation is significantly deteriorated from when I regularly caffeinate. Sometimes I wonder if my regular use as a college student permanently altered my brain chemistry. On the flip side, maybe this use set me up for the early career success that I might not otherwise have achieved.
Another option is that you have one of a handful of atypical neurologies for which caffeine is a form of self-medication.
Again, the problem is availability, and we've decided in this country (and most countries) that caffeine should be widely available. So it's not a significant problem, and is easy if slightly time-consuming if you need to update your context.
It's probably worth tying this discussion into applications to e.g. the war on drugs, but the language there tends to be so hyped up that it's too hard to have a good discussion about it.
Again, the problem is availability, and we've decided in this country (and most countries) that caffeine should be widely available. So it's not a significant problem, and is easy if slightly time-consuming if you need to update your context.
It's probably worth tying this discussion into applications to e.g. the war on drugs, but the language there tends to be so hyped up that it's too hard to have a good discussion about it.
Caffeine is a drug that generally increases energy and motivation so it makes sense that those levels wouldn’t be as high without consuming it.
Isn't that the primary difference between an addiction and a dependency? Something can be done/used regularly that would be considered a dependency (e.g., coffee), but only elevates to addiction-level severity when said behaviour becomes problematic.
Yes. E.g. https://www.hss.edu/conditions_understanding-addiction-versu...
Which makes you wonder how much drug use would be merely 'dependence' if we had free and easy access. I suspect it is a drug-by-drug case, depending on length of trip, relative incapacitation, physical dependencies (/withdrawal), rate of tolerance increase, etc.
Which makes you wonder how much drug use would be merely 'dependence' if we had free and easy access. I suspect it is a drug-by-drug case, depending on length of trip, relative incapacitation, physical dependencies (/withdrawal), rate of tolerance increase, etc.
I'm addicted to coffee, but I am never gonna stop drinking coffee.
Coffee is just too delicious, especially a well-made cappuccino. I think coffee as a guilty pleasure is not that bad to be honest. There are worse things to be addicted to.
The best way to enjoy a good cup of coffee, for me, is staying at a nice sea view condo.
And then early in the morning sit outside on the balcony, slowly sipping, enjoying the taste of coffee in my mouth, listening to the waves crashing on the beach, feeling the sun on my skin all while looking at the sea.
For me, there's no better way to start a day.
Coffee is just too delicious, especially a well-made cappuccino. I think coffee as a guilty pleasure is not that bad to be honest. There are worse things to be addicted to.
The best way to enjoy a good cup of coffee, for me, is staying at a nice sea view condo.
And then early in the morning sit outside on the balcony, slowly sipping, enjoying the taste of coffee in my mouth, listening to the waves crashing on the beach, feeling the sun on my skin all while looking at the sea.
For me, there's no better way to start a day.
I drink a lot of coffee. 8 to 15 cups a day. I always have. I have an insane caffeine tolerance.
One day (I was about 20 at the time) I wondered "am I addicted"? So as an experiment I quite cold turkey. I didn't drink any coffee or tea for a week. I didn't get any headaches, and I didn't feel any kind of withdrawal syndrome. Yes on the first day I really felt like some coffee in the morning, but after not drinking it my body just accepted it. And I went on with my day.
After about a week of literally no changes, I concluded that I cannot be addicted. I went back to drinking coffee at the same rate and never stopped. It doesn't provide me much benefit (like concentration or energy) due to my very high tolerance. But I just really like coffee so I'm going to carry on drinking it.
I wonder if I am a weird exception, or if there are many others like me. We really like coffee but we are not actually addicted to it.
I suppose the same could be said about alcohol. Some people react very differently towards it and get easily addicted, while others don't even though they drink a lot and just do it for enjoyments sake.
One day (I was about 20 at the time) I wondered "am I addicted"? So as an experiment I quite cold turkey. I didn't drink any coffee or tea for a week. I didn't get any headaches, and I didn't feel any kind of withdrawal syndrome. Yes on the first day I really felt like some coffee in the morning, but after not drinking it my body just accepted it. And I went on with my day.
After about a week of literally no changes, I concluded that I cannot be addicted. I went back to drinking coffee at the same rate and never stopped. It doesn't provide me much benefit (like concentration or energy) due to my very high tolerance. But I just really like coffee so I'm going to carry on drinking it.
I wonder if I am a weird exception, or if there are many others like me. We really like coffee but we are not actually addicted to it.
I suppose the same could be said about alcohol. Some people react very differently towards it and get easily addicted, while others don't even though they drink a lot and just do it for enjoyments sake.
At least with cigarettes, it takes 2 - 4 years to really cement your addiction.
Plenty of younger people (well I guess it's with juuls now) tell themselves they can quit whenever they want, and take break during a week of family vacation. No problem, so they keep on smoking.
5 years later when they try to quit they realize that maybe they weren't as bulletproof as they thought. I know for sure it happened to me.
Of course caffeine could be totally different addiction wise, and thankfully not nearly as deadly, but just some food for thought.
Plenty of younger people (well I guess it's with juuls now) tell themselves they can quit whenever they want, and take break during a week of family vacation. No problem, so they keep on smoking.
5 years later when they try to quit they realize that maybe they weren't as bulletproof as they thought. I know for sure it happened to me.
Of course caffeine could be totally different addiction wise, and thankfully not nearly as deadly, but just some food for thought.
I had already been drinking coffee for at least 6 years by that time.
But I was actually thinking of trying it again for a longer period of time (~ 6 months) and seeing what happens.
But I was actually thinking of trying it again for a longer period of time (~ 6 months) and seeing what happens.
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Replace caffeine with the name of many other drugs and in this thread you'd hardly notice a difference.
Caffeine is a highly socially acceptable drug. Doesn't mean it's all that different from them.
Caffeine is a highly socially acceptable drug. Doesn't mean it's all that different from them.
Yeah, debilitating headache is a classic caffeine withdrawal symptom. Nevertheless it's a walk in the park compared to getting off from other legal drugs like SSRIs, alcohol or benzos ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Benzodiazepines are such cursed drugs. Their withdrawal symptoms can be so severe, I don't understand why they would be used for anything other than a last resort.
People clear caffeine at different rates, which has some impact on quitting stories.
I drink like 50 fluid ounces of strong black coffee a day and don't really have a problem on days I drink a lot less. One thing I do is avoid consuming significant amounts of caffeine after noon. That way it's a normal thing for my body to have cleared most of the caffeine.
Do you drink the 3 cups throughout the day?
I drink like 50 fluid ounces of strong black coffee a day and don't really have a problem on days I drink a lot less. One thing I do is avoid consuming significant amounts of caffeine after noon. That way it's a normal thing for my body to have cleared most of the caffeine.
Do you drink the 3 cups throughout the day?
I had a similar experience. 3 drinks of coffee is what I and my family can go through in a meal, let alone a day. A typical day for me was easily 8 cups of _strong_ coffee, morning to night, daily. But I also quit coffee cold turkey when I got tired of how much time I was spending on coffee (brewing, cleaning, drinking, etc). No issues besides a slight headache for a day.
Yeah I normally drink two in the morning and one in the afternoon
I also recommend switching from coffee to tea if you consume a lot of it. I used to drink gallons of coffee a day. Basically from late highschool to a few years into my career (so like 10 years), I didn't drink anything but coffee (with milk). No water, even at night I was drinking coffee. I quit cold turkey a few times and I basically passed out for a few days from the headaches and feeling dizzy. When I quit I would sleep like 16 hours a day for a couple of days and in a weird way it felt great because I wouldn't be conscious for the worst of the withdrawal symptoms.
As I got older it became clear that this was probably both unhealthy and unsustainable so I switched to drinking black tea (with milk) all day instead. I make a giant batch every few days. I feel much better now and the headaches are not nearly as bad in the morning, I just feel slightly tired if I don't drink tea. I may have undiagnosed ADHD or something because I basically can't concentrate without a stimulant (this was true even before I started drinking coffee), but once I take it I find it much easier to focus. I also drink matcha sometimes, but don't like the taste as much. There's something about the bitter taste of strong tea or coffee plus milk to smooth it out that is irresistible to my brain.
As I got older it became clear that this was probably both unhealthy and unsustainable so I switched to drinking black tea (with milk) all day instead. I make a giant batch every few days. I feel much better now and the headaches are not nearly as bad in the morning, I just feel slightly tired if I don't drink tea. I may have undiagnosed ADHD or something because I basically can't concentrate without a stimulant (this was true even before I started drinking coffee), but once I take it I find it much easier to focus. I also drink matcha sometimes, but don't like the taste as much. There's something about the bitter taste of strong tea or coffee plus milk to smooth it out that is irresistible to my brain.
I used to drink about a litre of RedBull a day, sometimes more. I got diagnosed with ADHD a year ago. I'm on Methylphenidate now, and the caffeine, though it helped, didn't come close to the positive impact the right treatment has had. Changed my life.
If Driven To Distraction, How To ADHD, and r/ADHD resonate deeply, then it's worth getting evaluated.
Statistically speaking untreated ADHD shaves 13 years off expected life span due to high rates of comorbid health problems, fatal accidents, drug/alcohol/gambling addiction, and higher suicide rates from the depression that goes with severely fucking your life up.
If Driven To Distraction, How To ADHD, and r/ADHD resonate deeply, then it's worth getting evaluated.
Statistically speaking untreated ADHD shaves 13 years off expected life span due to high rates of comorbid health problems, fatal accidents, drug/alcohol/gambling addiction, and higher suicide rates from the depression that goes with severely fucking your life up.
Thanks, I didn't know about those statistics. Every time I read about ADHD I definitely think I have it given a bunch of problems I've had throughout my life. Luckily I've managed to get a really good job as a software engineer that is pretty flexible time-wise which has been a life saver since one of the biggest issues is my inability to sleep on a schedule. That led to me dropping out of high school once as well as college once even though I was acing all the tests. I've also found ways to organize my life in a way that makes things more manageable.
The main thing that keeps me from getting treatment is that I don't want to become dependent on a controlled substance. I tend to move around and travel a lot and depending on medication makes me feel very uneasy. I'm also worried about side effects or worse withdrawal problems compared to caffeine. I already know very well how caffeine affects me and I know I can quit and be ok other than the lack of focus. From what I've read, the dependence that can be formed with ADHD drugs can be much more serious.
The main thing that keeps me from getting treatment is that I don't want to become dependent on a controlled substance. I tend to move around and travel a lot and depending on medication makes me feel very uneasy. I'm also worried about side effects or worse withdrawal problems compared to caffeine. I already know very well how caffeine affects me and I know I can quit and be ok other than the lack of focus. From what I've read, the dependence that can be formed with ADHD drugs can be much more serious.
Do you have a link regarding these 13 years?
Coffee shouldn't taste bitter. Bitterness generally indicates that the grind is too fine for the brew time. Short brew times work with finer grinds, long brew times with coarser.
As an example, I'd used an Aeropress for years with a rather fine grind (finer that typical drip, but not as fine as espresso) and short brew time. (For Aeropress aficionados, I was using the regular method, not inverted.) The coffee was always smooth and never bitter.
Then I got a Clever Dripper (highly recommended!) which typically uses a much longer brew time. I started with the same fine grind and it was coming out bitter. So I increased the grind size to more of a typical drip grind (and slightly on the coarse side of that), and it fixed that problem.
The Clever Dripper also uses much less coffee (again because of the longer brew time), and it pretty much replaced the Aeropress for me.
As an example, I'd used an Aeropress for years with a rather fine grind (finer that typical drip, but not as fine as espresso) and short brew time. (For Aeropress aficionados, I was using the regular method, not inverted.) The coffee was always smooth and never bitter.
Then I got a Clever Dripper (highly recommended!) which typically uses a much longer brew time. I started with the same fine grind and it was coming out bitter. So I increased the grind size to more of a typical drip grind (and slightly on the coarse side of that), and it fixed that problem.
The Clever Dripper also uses much less coffee (again because of the longer brew time), and it pretty much replaced the Aeropress for me.
Matcha. Smooth constant rush of caffeine and theanine as your body digests the powder. Pu-erh is another favorite though.
Ph-erg really is the path of righteousness; it’s not for everyone though and there is such minutia involved in this type of tea that it’s very easy to get a bit.. obsessive..
I mean, it’s normal to have separate yixing teapots depending on the age of your sheng right? ;)
I mean, it’s normal to have separate yixing teapots depending on the age of your sheng right? ;)
Heretic! You need separate teapot for each variety of sheng.
What do you think of younger sheng? I’ve had a few from Mei leaf that have been fantastic (tub highness especially) — but generally I find it difficult to find decently aged stuff..
I am not fan of sheng, honestly. So, I only drink truly aged stuff. It happens not so often, because it is pricey, but I don't want to pay :)
Matcha gives me an initial kick but then I get so relaxed it’s hard to stay awake.
I went to a doctor for this, he told me that caffeine slows down how fast a part of your esophagus responds that is responsible for keeping the acid in your stomach.
Interesting. Did you find a remedy?
Omeprazole for a little, otherwise I stopped drinking coffee and keep in mind the regular recommendations for gerd.
I often wean myself off of coffee so that my sensitivity to it returns.
One tip for those trying to reduce or stop their coffee in-take: you don't have to go cold turkey.
Just gradually reduce. I'm always surprised at the amount of people who put themselves through misery trying to abruptly stop. You could even go as gradual as reducing your coffee intake by 25% a day. After a few days it'll be a gentle let down.
One tip for those trying to reduce or stop their coffee in-take: you don't have to go cold turkey.
Just gradually reduce. I'm always surprised at the amount of people who put themselves through misery trying to abruptly stop. You could even go as gradual as reducing your coffee intake by 25% a day. After a few days it'll be a gentle let down.
Before the pandemic I'd have 2-3 cups of espresso a day. Once we started working from home though, I went down basically immediately to 1 cup of regular coffee with an occasional second cup if the post lunch nap vibes hit too hard.
I just normally try to go one random day a week without coffee. Seems to really help with the addiction
Funny story my manager told me when I joined. "I tried to quit coffee one time. Didn't get anything done for an entire year"
LOL! anyways that just kind of made me think, like its not that bad for me, helps me get stuff done, and I love making and drinking it. No reason to stop now!
LOL! anyways that just kind of made me think, like its not that bad for me, helps me get stuff done, and I love making and drinking it. No reason to stop now!
My stomach also stopped tolerating coffee. Decaf is fine for me so I think it's the caffeine. However, I can tolerate a caffeinated cup every now and then, just not daily or twice daily as I had been before.
Would be curious if anyone has ever been able to regain their tolerance. I really loved coffee.
Would be curious if anyone has ever been able to regain their tolerance. I really loved coffee.
I don't think this really answers your question since I never had the symptoms you or the OP did, but I did have caffeine-antagonized panic attacks that (mostly) subsided after I quit caffeine entirely. I think I went something like 13 years without having any substantial amount of caffeine outside whatever was present in decaf tea or coffee (and often avoiding coffee entirely).
Recently, within the last 10 months or so, I've gone back to drinking it without much effect. The only significant difference in my case was that I started a regular and fairly intense exercise regimen after my exgf dumped me. The way she did it was horrible, it was stressful, and made me lose a bunch of weight (for me, ~10 pounds) in less than a week, but the end result was that I recognized the benefits and decided to work to lose more and keep it off. I wasn't hugely over my ideal weight (25-30 over) but losing most of it helped with a bunch of different things, including this.
I don't know if this changed my ability to metabolize caffeine somewhat faster (I think it did; or minimized the effects), but before this I could feel my heart starting to act a bit funny within minutes of drinking anything with caffeine to the extent I'd wind up with a full blown panic attack. Now, I can drink it without noticing much other than the jitters (normal for me). Doesn't affect my heart rate unless I drink too much.
That said, I very slowly ramped up my caffeine intake over a few weeks starting with regular black teas. Maybe try switching up your exercise routine and slowly reintroduce it? The first couple cups I had over a week definitely upset my stomach slightly but it got better. Though, I noticed even decaf would do that as well. Doesn't now for whatever reason.
Did you normally drink it by itself or with something to eat?
Recently, within the last 10 months or so, I've gone back to drinking it without much effect. The only significant difference in my case was that I started a regular and fairly intense exercise regimen after my exgf dumped me. The way she did it was horrible, it was stressful, and made me lose a bunch of weight (for me, ~10 pounds) in less than a week, but the end result was that I recognized the benefits and decided to work to lose more and keep it off. I wasn't hugely over my ideal weight (25-30 over) but losing most of it helped with a bunch of different things, including this.
I don't know if this changed my ability to metabolize caffeine somewhat faster (I think it did; or minimized the effects), but before this I could feel my heart starting to act a bit funny within minutes of drinking anything with caffeine to the extent I'd wind up with a full blown panic attack. Now, I can drink it without noticing much other than the jitters (normal for me). Doesn't affect my heart rate unless I drink too much.
That said, I very slowly ramped up my caffeine intake over a few weeks starting with regular black teas. Maybe try switching up your exercise routine and slowly reintroduce it? The first couple cups I had over a week definitely upset my stomach slightly but it got better. Though, I noticed even decaf would do that as well. Doesn't now for whatever reason.
Did you normally drink it by itself or with something to eat?
I can give that a try - willing to try anything at this point haha :) Mixing caffeine and decaf beans to make a low-caff actually tastes decent.
I always drink it with food. Glad you were able to reintroduce it!
I always drink it with food. Glad you were able to reintroduce it!
I get the majority of my caffeine from Ito En Sencha Shot. Canned japanese green tea, unsweetened and vitamin c is the only preservative. I much prefer chilled green tea, but am too lazy to make it all of the time - works great for me.
Another data point. Trying to quit coffee led to massive headaches in my 20s and 30s. In my 50s and 60s, not so.
i just periodically switch to decaf for a few days (usually gradually). but these days, making 60%-caff coffees instead of full strength allows me to still drink 2-3 cups a day without getting too much caffeine while also not trading off too much of the taste (decaf tends to taste “dry”, or more astringent).
I have been wondering what's the root cause of this sudden container shortage.
Found this blog post with an explanation: https://www.hillebrand.com/media/publication/where-are-all-t...
Found this blog post with an explanation: https://www.hillebrand.com/media/publication/where-are-all-t...
I wish the article would actually go into _what_ is causing the container shortage
Are they not manufacturing them? Prioritizing them elsewhere? Is it political?
Anyone know what’s going on?
Are they not manufacturing them? Prioritizing them elsewhere? Is it political?
Anyone know what’s going on?
There's no shortage of containers per se. The problem is more complex because due to the pandemic the whole logistics line isn't functioning the way it used to. Ports are understaffed because of lockdowns, factories close down so the goods at ports can't get delivered to manufacturing, shipping carriers reduce the number of vessels at sea to avoid a drop in ocean rates so there are ships sitting at ports and no one around to move the containers where they're needed, and so on and so forth.
Well for starters, there are lines of cargo ships outside of LA, 20-30 off the coast of LA right now. Typically it would be 1-2. That’s something like 100,000 sitting idle right there. Then many of the storage facilities are also jam packed with containers too.
Apparently we’ve all gone on a spending spree during COVID so more containers are simply out there filled with crap we’ve ordered and waiting for shipment, unloading, and return to the ports.
Apparently we’ve all gone on a spending spree during COVID so more containers are simply out there filled with crap we’ve ordered and waiting for shipment, unloading, and return to the ports.
For a start, a whole bunch of containers ended up stuck in locations where they wouldn't normally be and there's not enough return goods, and for some reason shipping companies aren't interested in carrying empty containers back on their return trips?
There's another Hackernews discussion about just that: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26574077
The graphs are horrible. By showing changes between 5.5 and 7.5M you have a rollercoaster. When you show the same graph between 0 and 7.5M, it gets flatter and the huge changes maybe do not mean that much.
This would get a 10/20 mark at my lecture.
This would get a 10/20 mark at my lecture.
By the same logic we should print charts of heart rates and body temperature from starting from 0. Regional temperature over time plots should always start from 0 kelvin, Google's stock price should displayed from 0 to 3000, etc.
I don't know about you but I would be annoyed if my smart watch app displayed BPM starting at 0 making my changing heart rate an ignoreable fuzz.
The idea that "charts should start at 0" is an absurd dogma that is immediately recognizable as such by anyone that has ever worked with data visualization to make decisions.
A better guideline is to display a reasonable range that lets you see historically what has been possible with a bit of buffer. For relatively Guassian changes a few standard deviations is good.
In general your limits should not be outside of the bounds of what is reasonably possible. Coffee trade is not going to 0 anytime soon, and suggesting that visually is dishonest.
I don't know about you but I would be annoyed if my smart watch app displayed BPM starting at 0 making my changing heart rate an ignoreable fuzz.
The idea that "charts should start at 0" is an absurd dogma that is immediately recognizable as such by anyone that has ever worked with data visualization to make decisions.
A better guideline is to display a reasonable range that lets you see historically what has been possible with a bit of buffer. For relatively Guassian changes a few standard deviations is good.
In general your limits should not be outside of the bounds of what is reasonably possible. Coffee trade is not going to 0 anytime soon, and suggesting that visually is dishonest.
> By the same logic we should print charts of heart rates and body temperature from starting from 0
No. We do not want to prove anything here. The trend can be only within a range so that range should be used.
> Regional temperature over time plots should always start from 0 kelvin
If you discuss how wide the changes are - yes. But thi si not what you are looking at - you are looking at temperatures between -50C and +50C (taking the extremes) and this is also the reason why thermometers are scaled like that.
> The idea that "charts should start at 0" is an absurd dogma that is immediately recognizable as such by anyone that has ever worked with data visualization to make decisions.
Certainly. I believe that physicists and engineers who did actual research on actual data can be dismissed.
> A better guideline is to display a reasonable range that lets you see historically what has been possible with a bit of buffer.
It depends on what you want to show. If you want to show relative changes then plot relative changes. If you want to discuss absolute changes (which in the article do not make any sense) then you have to address the whole range. We are talking about millions of something, and that something can drop to zero.
> For relatively Gaussian changes a few standard deviations is good.
On what basis do you assume that you have a gaussian distribution? (I assume - of changes, form your comment)
> In general your limits should not be outside of the bounds of what is reasonably possible
A data scientist making a real analysis will look at what is reasonably possible, but possible full stop. This sets the ranges of observation. To take your first example, the only possible temperatures when dealing with a live body in ambient temperature is from, say, 17C to about 44C. Thi is the range that should be used when discussing "wild changes in temperature. And not a graph that goes from 36.5 to 37 and showing valleys and mountains and drawing conclusions from there.
> Coffee trade is not going to 0 anytime soon, and suggesting that visually is dishonest
What is visually dishonest is to show absolute changes and make any kind of comments on how important they are by not taking the possible values, especially when talking about values going down.
No. We do not want to prove anything here. The trend can be only within a range so that range should be used.
> Regional temperature over time plots should always start from 0 kelvin
If you discuss how wide the changes are - yes. But thi si not what you are looking at - you are looking at temperatures between -50C and +50C (taking the extremes) and this is also the reason why thermometers are scaled like that.
> The idea that "charts should start at 0" is an absurd dogma that is immediately recognizable as such by anyone that has ever worked with data visualization to make decisions.
Certainly. I believe that physicists and engineers who did actual research on actual data can be dismissed.
> A better guideline is to display a reasonable range that lets you see historically what has been possible with a bit of buffer.
It depends on what you want to show. If you want to show relative changes then plot relative changes. If you want to discuss absolute changes (which in the article do not make any sense) then you have to address the whole range. We are talking about millions of something, and that something can drop to zero.
> For relatively Gaussian changes a few standard deviations is good.
On what basis do you assume that you have a gaussian distribution? (I assume - of changes, form your comment)
> In general your limits should not be outside of the bounds of what is reasonably possible
A data scientist making a real analysis will look at what is reasonably possible, but possible full stop. This sets the ranges of observation. To take your first example, the only possible temperatures when dealing with a live body in ambient temperature is from, say, 17C to about 44C. Thi is the range that should be used when discussing "wild changes in temperature. And not a graph that goes from 36.5 to 37 and showing valleys and mountains and drawing conclusions from there.
> Coffee trade is not going to 0 anytime soon, and suggesting that visually is dishonest
What is visually dishonest is to show absolute changes and make any kind of comments on how important they are by not taking the possible values, especially when talking about values going down.
For those that can't be bothered to read beyond the headline.
"global shortage of shipping containers that’s upended the food trade."
Shipping container shortage.
"global shortage of shipping containers that’s upended the food trade."
Shipping container shortage.
This confuses me, as shipping containers seem... really easy to produce. They're not CPUs; you don't need a special fab. They're corrugated boxes made of welded cold-rolled steel. Pretty much every country — every industry in every country! — should be able to scrape together the natural resources to make their own shipping containers. There should never be a shortage of supply of shipping containers, any more than there could have been a shortage in supply of, say, the hemp sacks used in bulk shipping in the 1700s. You need one? You make one!
From the article:
> Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest shipping company, said containers and charter vessels are temporarily unavailable for purchase or lease
I have a feeling it's more about the ships. Shipbuilding is a pretty CapEx-intensive pursuit. Container production, not so much.
From the article:
> Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest shipping company, said containers and charter vessels are temporarily unavailable for purchase or lease
I have a feeling it's more about the ships. Shipbuilding is a pretty CapEx-intensive pursuit. Container production, not so much.
It could be the same reason why toilet paper struggled so much.
Sure it's super easy to produce, but do you want to be on the hook for whatever you spent ramping up production when the shortage disappears between 1 month and 1 year from now?
Sure it's super easy to produce, but do you want to be on the hook for whatever you spent ramping up production when the shortage disappears between 1 month and 1 year from now?
That feeling is the same thing with railcar shortages. They are super easy to produce. But no one wants to be stuck with them if there is a glut, only a few manufacturers of railcars and they don't scale like servers. They make a normal amount of railcars, and when they need more they can make what 10-20% more? And then since they are "easy" to produce they still might take weeks to months to finish because of parts they rely on all being strained as well.
> And then since they are "easy" to produce they still might take weeks to months to finish because of parts they rely on all being strained as well.
I feel like a container factory would be a sensible thing to be vertically integrated: raw steel (or iron and carbon!) in; containers out; screws and bolts and any other needed stuff getting made during the process out of the same raw inputs. A lot like how IKEA's operation works (i.e. basically a vertically-integrated sawmill), but with metals.
That approach doesn't vertically scale very well, but the techniques from it could be horizontally scaled pretty easily across a number of industries if well-known. This is what I was on about with the hemp sacks: every industry did used to make their own hemp sacks. It was easy, and the techniques and requirements were well-known, so every business that needed sacks just did what was necessary to make them, comparative advantage be damned. (Sort of like how every large factory today has its own machine shop, or how every modern building has its own internal water-treatment+recycling system.)
I feel like a container factory would be a sensible thing to be vertically integrated: raw steel (or iron and carbon!) in; containers out; screws and bolts and any other needed stuff getting made during the process out of the same raw inputs. A lot like how IKEA's operation works (i.e. basically a vertically-integrated sawmill), but with metals.
That approach doesn't vertically scale very well, but the techniques from it could be horizontally scaled pretty easily across a number of industries if well-known. This is what I was on about with the hemp sacks: every industry did used to make their own hemp sacks. It was easy, and the techniques and requirements were well-known, so every business that needed sacks just did what was necessary to make them, comparative advantage be damned. (Sort of like how every large factory today has its own machine shop, or how every modern building has its own internal water-treatment+recycling system.)
What do they ship raw steel in?
Usually, refineries are located very close to mines, such that raw ore doesn't spend much time being shipped around — because most of it's going to be slag, anyway, and it's a waste of money to ship that. Often ore is delivered into a refinery "directly" on a minecart; or, if not, then on a railcar loaded from buffer hoppers at the mine; but either way using point-to-point rail service between the two sites (i.e. not part of the rail network.)
Ports are congested too, which leaves ships (and their containers) stuck out at anchorages waiting to get in. Port of LA, for instance, has been bottlenecked for months.
https://www.marketplace.org/2021/01/29/record-port-backups-h...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/retailers-pay-more-to-fly-bi...
https://www.marketplace.org/2021/01/29/record-port-backups-h...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/retailers-pay-more-to-fly-bi...
They are easy to produce but they are also needed in tremendous numbers, because a bunch got stuck in the USA (which tends to export less stuff) rather than in Asia (which tends to export more stuff, especially to the USA, where all the containers are).
There is not so much a shortage but instead the empty containers are in the wrong place. With the US stimulus coupled with the lack of ability of American consumers to consume services like travel, imports to the US have surged. They've started adding an extra layer of containers on ships coming from China and a bunch of them have fallen off. In the past we would fill some of the containers going back to China with agricultural goods, but now empty containers are essentially more valuable than filled containers. Here's a marketplace article on the situation: https://www.marketplace.org/2021/03/17/inflation-shipping-co...
Plus crop problems in Brazil:
Arabica-coffee futures in New York have risen about 24% since the end of October following the damage to Brazilian groves.
Arabica-coffee futures in New York have risen about 24% since the end of October following the damage to Brazilian groves.
they've known of this for a long time. The logistics folks have data for very accurate predictions:
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/inside-californias-colossa...
(from a few months ago)
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/inside-californias-colossa...
(from a few months ago)
This website’s ad network is delivering browser hijacking ads. I haven’t seen one of those for a long time.
Am I the only “lucky apple user” where I was randomly redirected to a cheezy malware site from 20 years ago?
Nope, I also got some sort of browser hijacking redirect from their ad network. It’s been a while since I’ve seen those.
Is this something in your phone, or its an ad on the website?
hmm
* "highest shipping costs since 2019"
* "lowest inventory since 2016"
* Record harvest in Brazil
It doesn't seem like a big crisis. I smell sensationalism.
* "highest shipping costs since 2019"
* "lowest inventory since 2016"
* Record harvest in Brazil
It doesn't seem like a big crisis. I smell sensationalism.
I was thinking the exact same thing. Does everyone else remember The Great Coffee Shortage of 2016? Because I don't. This smells like a PR story funded by commodities traders that are long on coffee. Better stock up now!!!!!!!!!
Hahaha, maybe they got me. I bought a ton of vacuum sealed coffee in different formats -- even Ogawa's camp packets -- after reading this article.
I've been looking for a decent alternative for years as I expect the climate crisis will basically decimate our ability to yield crops by the end of this decade or the middle of the next.
Any suggestions out there?
Any suggestions out there?
If you're that concerned, what's your plan for the rest of your food?
I changed my diet years ago to be mostly vegan (occasional eggs/cheese/honey). We buy local as much as possible, during the growing season we try to buy direct from local farmers and supplement with our own perma-culture garden in growing season and share with local community gardens.
I really enjoy coffee, as much as the next programmer, but if there's an alternative I'd be down.
I really enjoy coffee, as much as the next programmer, but if there's an alternative I'd be down.
>In the facilities of Dinamo, one of Brazil’s largest coffee warehouses operators, there’s a lot of product stuck waiting for containers
Can anyone comment on the cost difference to ship something from Brazil to US in containers vs as air cargo? Also, isn't shipping via trucks or trains an option?
Can anyone comment on the cost difference to ship something from Brazil to US in containers vs as air cargo? Also, isn't shipping via trucks or trains an option?
You can't really ship from Brazil to the US (or vice versa) by train or truck because there isn't a continuous land route between the Americas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darién_Gap
In this age of remakes, this calls for a movie about the dangerous overland trip taken to deliver coffee through the Darien Gap, in the style of Sorcerer (1977): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0076740/ (which is already a third remake or so.)
Also reminds me of this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitzcarraldo
Shipping efficiency generally:
Boats > trains > trucks > planes
Aircraft are only used in time-sensitive situations. The standardized cargo container improved shipping efficiency, but in its absence boats are still the best method of transportation.
The fact that they're waiting for the cargo containers means that it's costing them less to wait than other options. I imagine if they were desperate they could hire out some cruise liners and stuff them with coffee. They'd have to be loaded and unloaded by dockworkers though, not sure if any port would support that anymore...
Aircraft are only used in time-sensitive situations. The standardized cargo container improved shipping efficiency, but in its absence boats are still the best method of transportation.
The fact that they're waiting for the cargo containers means that it's costing them less to wait than other options. I imagine if they were desperate they could hire out some cruise liners and stuff them with coffee. They'd have to be loaded and unloaded by dockworkers though, not sure if any port would support that anymore...
The only even remotely break-bulk pier I know of here in Baltimore, unless you count stuff that's too big to containerize, is the one at the Domino Sugar plant down at Locust Point. That one might actually be pretty well suited for unloading raw coffee beans with the same bucket lift gear they already use for raw sugar.
Probably have it shipped in the same often ill maintained freighters, too - a few years ago I watched an osprey pull a three-foot length of steel wire out of a crane cable on one of those boats. Impressive that the bird could do it, less so that the line was in such a state that a loose wire was there to be pulled out of it. But you could fill their holds with loose beans, no problem.
Doing break-bulk with sacks of beans in a cruise liner could work, but you'd probably end up paying eighty or a hundred bucks a pound for the coffee - I don't get the sense that either cruise ships or longshoremen work cheap. Better just to lay in a supply now, before the shortage shows up in prices at places like restaurant supply stores, and wait it out.
(That's what I just got done doing, anyway. Not like I won't drink it in any case...)
Probably have it shipped in the same often ill maintained freighters, too - a few years ago I watched an osprey pull a three-foot length of steel wire out of a crane cable on one of those boats. Impressive that the bird could do it, less so that the line was in such a state that a loose wire was there to be pulled out of it. But you could fill their holds with loose beans, no problem.
Doing break-bulk with sacks of beans in a cruise liner could work, but you'd probably end up paying eighty or a hundred bucks a pound for the coffee - I don't get the sense that either cruise ships or longshoremen work cheap. Better just to lay in a supply now, before the shortage shows up in prices at places like restaurant supply stores, and wait it out.
(That's what I just got done doing, anyway. Not like I won't drink it in any case...)
There is a breakbulk in Norfolk, VA at Norfolk Southern's Lambert's Point. There's breakbulk at Portsmouth and Newport News Marine Terminals.
Others have commented on the Darien Gap, but generally speaking, maritime shipping is roughly 1/3 the cost of overland by rail.
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/comparing-mari...
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/comparing-mari...
The Darien gap might be an issue there.
Brazilian here. Most of the coffee production is in the south and south-east (São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná). To get the coffee in bulk to where it can cross the gap, it has to travel thru shitty roads that have more craters than the far side of the Moon and some that aren't paved at all.
Then it gets to the Amazonas river. It's so wide, some Portuguese navigator tought it was a fresh water Sea. There's only one bridge conencting the city os Manaus in the north bank to south and sone ferries scattered all over.
Then you have to cross half the Amazon jungle to get to a port in Colombia (Venezuela is not an option for obvious reasons).
Tl;dr, the Darian Gap is the least of your problems if you want to move coffee by land from here to the US.
Then it gets to the Amazonas river. It's so wide, some Portuguese navigator tought it was a fresh water Sea. There's only one bridge conencting the city os Manaus in the north bank to south and sone ferries scattered all over.
Then you have to cross half the Amazon jungle to get to a port in Colombia (Venezuela is not an option for obvious reasons).
Tl;dr, the Darian Gap is the least of your problems if you want to move coffee by land from here to the US.
Pipelines are cheaper than roads. A not-quite-totally-silly idea would be to send brewed coffee concentrate up a pipeline. After you stop laughing, you kinda want to run some numbers...
Also Brazilian here, wouldn't an alternative path be to go even further southwest, leave the country, and only then move north more or less following the Pacific coast? That would both avoid all these shitty roads and remove the need to cross the Amazonas.
Looking at google maps, it sort of looks like it goes from the jungle to the Andes to the Atacama dessert.
I'm genuinely surprised at how impassible this all seems. especially the Andes.
I'm genuinely surprised at how impassible this all seems. especially the Andes.
The Andes rival the Himalayas in all respects.
Shipping freight by road to the Pacific means going through Argentina and Chile. I don't think Peru and Bolivia have the maintained roads to do it.
As far as I know, there are only four paved mountain passes between Argentina and Chile. Paso Paso de Jama is probably the most practical, and I think the one carrying the most freight currently.
The other three-- Cardenal Antonio Samoré, Paso Libertadores, and Pino Hachado-- are much farther south.
None of these routes would be cost effective for the international coffee trade at any scale. Take a look at some photos of Paso Libertadores to see what I mean.
Shipping freight by road to the Pacific means going through Argentina and Chile. I don't think Peru and Bolivia have the maintained roads to do it.
As far as I know, there are only four paved mountain passes between Argentina and Chile. Paso Paso de Jama is probably the most practical, and I think the one carrying the most freight currently.
The other three-- Cardenal Antonio Samoré, Paso Libertadores, and Pino Hachado-- are much farther south.
None of these routes would be cost effective for the international coffee trade at any scale. Take a look at some photos of Paso Libertadores to see what I mean.
This would be tough. Out of many things caffeine seems to be hardest to quit. I quit alcohol, smoking but coffee seems impossible.
I think it would be fair to say we’re facing a deficit in everything ?
Food, water, safe places to live?
Food, water, safe places to live?
If I lost access to coffee I can still have tea, guarana or yerba mate.
I’m sorry. I really like coffee.
This is how the end looks...
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Oh no
too much cash, not enough stuff.
inflation is coming.
inflation is coming.
Uh no people dont doubke their coffee consumption because they have more money
But if people have more money, wouldn't that mean producers could raise their prices and people would still be willing to pay it?
Only if they coordinate and act like a cartel. Otherwise it's a prisoner's dilemma situation where the party that doesn't raise prices gains market share.
That's where the supply shortage comes in. If lots of people have money but there's excess capacity in the market, nobody will raise prices because the firm that doesn't ramps up capacity and captures the excess market share. If lots of people have money but there's a supply shortage, the firm that refuses to raise prices lacks the excess capacity to capitalize on their consumer demand, and fails to gain market share.
No coordination needed in a supply limited scenario with sufficiently inelastic demand. That's not a prisoner's dilemma. In that case every single bag has multiple potential interested buyers, which means each supplier can individually have buyers bid against each other and see the sale price go up. Organization of course might let them do even better, but it's not necessary. There is no market share to be gained from the supplier point of view (though as the article says, those higher up the chain may have different motives and margins) because supply just can't be ramped up instantly with a good like coffee. It doesn't matter if a farmer would in principle like to have 10x as much to sell, they have what they grew, and could only respond to demand by increasing supply slowly (and there is the risk of overshoot). If they don't raise prices they're just leaving money on the table, since every bag will get bought.
I'm not talking about coffee, I'm talking about the missing pieces in the supply chain. There's too much cash, i.e. Bitcoin the moon, and not enough stuff (i.e. we are short the needed shipping containers to reboot the post COVID economy). It's gonna be like the years immediately after WW2. Everyone wants a car, but the factories have not fully moved back to making consumer goods.
Inflation is not happening. There are a lot of relative price increases because everyone being stuck at home changed demand severely, and people stopped traveling so many better-off families increased savings a lot. The money printers are going to debt service and savings more than spending, which wouldn't increase inflation.
One reason people might think it's going up is that it makes you look cool and wise to say it is; another is that SV is expensive so you might think the rest of the world is too. But much of the world has negative interest rates, that's deflation.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/your-local-price-changes-a...
One reason people might think it's going up is that it makes you look cool and wise to say it is; another is that SV is expensive so you might think the rest of the world is too. But much of the world has negative interest rates, that's deflation.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/your-local-price-changes-a...
I don't claim inflation has been happening yet - people have been crying wolf for a long time.
But something has changed. The fed is determined not to raise interest rates until there is serious inflation, and a lot of politically minded people are looking at trillions in stimulus and seriously saying the idea that we have to pay for spending with tax revenue was always a lie that we should now be free of.
It's easy to view inertia as evidence nothing is changing.
But something has changed. The fed is determined not to raise interest rates until there is serious inflation, and a lot of politically minded people are looking at trillions in stimulus and seriously saying the idea that we have to pay for spending with tax revenue was always a lie that we should now be free of.
It's easy to view inertia as evidence nothing is changing.
One thing making it okay is that it's not really stimulus, it's disaster relief. A lot of it is going to repay debt, which instantly destroys it, and more is going to savings.
If it was spent it would cause inflation, but that's fine because we've been under our target forever, not that there was ever a real reason 2% was a target.
If it was spent it would cause inflation, but that's fine because we've been under our target forever, not that there was ever a real reason 2% was a target.
too much cash, not enough stuff.
jobs are coming.
jobs are coming.
So cue the US telling developing countries "hey you can grow coffee instead of coca/opium and make a good living", a large number of farmers growing coffee, the supply gets flooded, prices drop and the farmers switch back to the coca/opium harvests that no doubt made them much more money anyway.
The circle of life.
The circle of life.
According to TFA, sourcing coffee isn’t the problem. It was in the first paragraph in case you missed it on your first reading.
> Marex Spectron this month increased its estimate for a global coffee deficit to 10.7 million bags in 2021-22, compared with its previous projection of 8 million bags, citing lower Brazilian arabica output after adverse weather damaged crops. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report that if production in Central America doesn’t improve in coming years, the market will enter a structural deficit given the rebound in demand
Doesn't matter. If they can't export/ship/sell it, then they don't make money, so they go back to growing drugs.
There's a shortage of shipping containers for the cocaine and opium, too.
How often are those shipped in containers as opposed to DIY submarines?
Oh all the time. But global freight is so huge, only a tiny portion can be checked. It has to make its way to a shipping source before it can enter the legitimate supply chain though.
Although 3D x-rays are used extensively for scanning freight, it it still easy to smuggle high value product.
Although 3D x-rays are used extensively for scanning freight, it it still easy to smuggle high value product.
I would have thought that artificial opioids like fentanyl would have wrecked the poppy market already.
I recall reading it's several orders of magnitude more potent and its typical use is elephant tranquilizer. Far higher potency means it's easy for a small mistake in measurement to result in a really high dose. I would imagine that seems risky even to people accustomed to heroin.
I don't think heroin users get a choice. My understanding is a lot of the street supply is already cut with fentanyl.
Recovering addict here, couple decades clean: yes, that's been true for years. If you are in touch with the using-addict population, for instance you're in recovery and participate in meetings, you'd be certain of this.
It's weird when maybe a double-digit percentage of the people you know, wind up dead (and this is before covid). When you include people you know, upset because people THEY know have overdosed and died, then yeah: the effects of fentanyl are pretty damn apparent. People will not be addicts cautiously. Even if they think that's what they're being, they're mistaken.
It's weird when maybe a double-digit percentage of the people you know, wind up dead (and this is before covid). When you include people you know, upset because people THEY know have overdosed and died, then yeah: the effects of fentanyl are pretty damn apparent. People will not be addicts cautiously. Even if they think that's what they're being, they're mistaken.
> its typical use is elephant tranquilizer
Which leads me to ask: how many flippin’ elephants are being tranquilized, that we need so much of this stuff being manufactured?! Poor creatures.
Which leads me to ask: how many flippin’ elephants are being tranquilized, that we need so much of this stuff being manufactured?! Poor creatures.
With terminal cancer, the progression I've seen is first oxycontin pills, then fentanyl patches, and then liquid morphine.
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Supply chains continue to be disrupted due to myriad of reasons. Its not only missing containers, you can argue they are still somewhat misplaces but its not just that - changing rules (COVID), changing borders (UK) , unstable financing (try to get money from any factor or revolver that is not a bank, good luck now), changing market tastes , changes even related to humans (unemployed disruptions along the supply chain workflow).
There has been many unsung heroes from the pandemic but at least as far as USA is concerned, I am still amazed we can still buy stuff from amazon with 2 day delivery.
(To wit - amazon also is not helping by limiting FBA inbound capacity to sellers)
Spot prices are all over the place. It will be like this for a while.