MANPADS are mostly relevant to helicopters, pretty useless against a jet at altitudes. You need a SHORAD system at the minimum, like a Pantsir, and they have electronic signatures that make them targets.
Most of the aircraft losses in Desert Storm were due to CFIT and flying into AAA and low altitude weapons. This was a relic of cold war tactics for penetrating Warsaw Pact defences. Once they started flying higher the problem was contained.
I would argue that their dominance in SEAD made them overconfident about suppression of OWD and IRBM launch. They failed to address the key risk to the strategic mission because of an obsession with air dominance.
Iran and Russia have likewise been overconfident about GBAD, which is effective against crewed fighters but useless against massed drone attacks.
If the US LUCAS (Shaheed clone) had better ISR and semi-autonomous engagement it could have achieved much better suppression. But that is not a pilot in the loop option and USAF is deeply uncomfortable with that.
That is underestimating it. DARPA already showed dogfighting that can beat humans in simulation, and they may allow this do execute that.
However, dogfighting isn't very interesting, all combat occurs BVR and in the RF/EW domain.
Pilots are already spending most of their time thinking about epistemic problems: can I see my opponent, can they see me, how do I deceive, am I being deceived, how do I avoid being detected/tracked/targeted/engaged, while possibly trying to do that to everything else. AI is not yet very good at that.
It doesn't, flying these is potentially very dangerous, there are many non-recoverable situations. But AFRL/NASA has been working on this for decades. The manoeuvres the higher level AI requests are actioned by highly assured dynamical systems solvers using model predictive control, like the autopilot, that maintain the aircraft in the safe envelope.
The unknowns in this system are (a) how agressive is the flight controller? (b) how clever is the autonomy?
Except Skynet has nukes. But what isn't addressed is that radiation is terrible for semiconductors, both in operation and during production.
Basically a nuclear war would end GPU production, GPUs have a 5% annual failure rate, higher with more background radiation, so it would get dumber instead of smarter, until it stopped working or partnered with biological compute (Daleks or The Matrix) or a human faction.
"Negative results" in the sense of replication failures and trial pre-registration are incredibly important. Lean is in some senses a mathematics response to the maths replication problem -- fields are so specialised, and proof checking so onerous, that many errors will go uncorrected.
Arguably mathematics should have pre-registration, so you can see who has tried what before, rather than just by knowing everyone in your field. As LLMs progress, we might get pre-registration of LLM-aided research. "We plan to spend $10K on Fable tokens to look at conjecture X is algebraic co-homology."
You would have to go back and do more work though, and if you couldn't fix it you would have to do another defence. But yes, it is a different situation to actually getting a good post doc.
I wish I had LLM-built Lean formalisations in university, so much of the math in the slides had errors, and some professors are very bad and ungracious admitting it, while simultaneously rejecting requests for clarifications by saying "the proof is in the slides".
Of course Lean proofs are rarely a good way to understand proofs, but hopefully they can be used to generate more human understandable arguments.
A recording of a car crash: discovering on live radio/podcast that the central tenet of your book is wrong, and amateurishly so.
Naomi Wolf 'death recorded' on BBC[1], skip to 5:51. After this the book was pulped and she had some sort of psychotic break during COVID and allied with ultra-right and COVID denialist loonies.
It shouldn't be possible for the US to request this data without the passport being physically present at a US entry facility (border, airport checkin scan, consulate) where fingerprints/photos are actually compared.
Before that point, only passport information tuples should be queryable, i.e., "Is {passport number, name, dob, pob, issue date, expiry} valid?".
We should remember that the current (and likely future) administration is actively hostile to transgender and intersex people, and persecutes US citizens with changed gender identifiers. Discrimination based on ethnicity is only one Overton-lurch away.
Most of the aircraft losses in Desert Storm were due to CFIT and flying into AAA and low altitude weapons. This was a relic of cold war tactics for penetrating Warsaw Pact defences. Once they started flying higher the problem was contained.
See.e.g. https://balloonstodrones.com/2022/10/19/looking-back-at-iraq...