The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-19/the-near-future-of-electric-cars-many-models-few-buyers
193 comments
Historically, there have been a variety of reasons why electric cars did not take substantial market share. You likely know what they are: Range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure, poor performance, funky styling, 'general dorkiness', .... The current independents have focused on these issues and in many cases, clearly eliminated them. Moreover, the market itself has evolved with the US in particular finally starting to wake up to environmental issues (T notwithstanding), and China making strident environmental policy out of pure desperation.
Add to the situation that a popular figurehead with a superhero alter-ego is leading the way with awe-inspiring (crash inducing) feats of science and technology, and I think we'll all be surprised at how fast electric vehicles become mainstream.
Add to the situation that a popular figurehead with a superhero alter-ego is leading the way with awe-inspiring (crash inducing) feats of science and technology, and I think we'll all be surprised at how fast electric vehicles become mainstream.
To offer a slightly anecdotal counterpoint, if you discard ideological reasons and generous subsidies available in a few markets, I have no idea why anyone would buy an electric car right now. The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't live in California. The performance of most electric cars is abysmal (straight line speed may be all right, but cornering with the extra weight is just inferior) compared to traditional performance cars and while styling is subjective, the only electric car I've seen that wasn't outright ugly was the BMW i8, and that's a hybrid. That's not to mention the fact that they still carry a severe price premium in most markets.
I realize my opinion will be highly controversial in the HN bubble, but I find it to be very common in real life, particularly outside the U.S. Like any future prediction, I'm probably way off, but to me it looks like on the list of vastly overhyped car trends pure electric cars are second only to self-driving cars. I'm sure they'll find specific markets (taxis, urban deliveries, etc.), but I don't see myself switching to an electric car for at least a decade, probably more.
I realize my opinion will be highly controversial in the HN bubble, but I find it to be very common in real life, particularly outside the U.S. Like any future prediction, I'm probably way off, but to me it looks like on the list of vastly overhyped car trends pure electric cars are second only to self-driving cars. I'm sure they'll find specific markets (taxis, urban deliveries, etc.), but I don't see myself switching to an electric car for at least a decade, probably more.
Electric cars are baller. They are fun to drive.
My Tesla Roadster does not corner like a Porsche 911, it's true, but it does not matter for everyday driving, because it is so effortlessly faster than anything else on the road, when I pull away from a stoplight, whoever I want to cut in front of is 50 feet behind me.
Instant acceleration is worth a lot, too.
For comparison: My previous car was a BMW M3. I would much, much rather drive my 2010 Tesla Roadster, and that is an old car at this point ... 2020 Tesla Roadster is going to be amazing.
> The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't live in California.
My roadster goes 340 miles on one charge. The upcoming 2020 Roadster goes 620 miles on one charge.
Admittedly, battery capacity costs money. Price-sensitivity is the reason most of these newly-announced cars don't have as much range. It is not a technical limitation.
And as with any such technology component, battery costs will continue to drop over time.
My Tesla Roadster does not corner like a Porsche 911, it's true, but it does not matter for everyday driving, because it is so effortlessly faster than anything else on the road, when I pull away from a stoplight, whoever I want to cut in front of is 50 feet behind me.
Instant acceleration is worth a lot, too.
For comparison: My previous car was a BMW M3. I would much, much rather drive my 2010 Tesla Roadster, and that is an old car at this point ... 2020 Tesla Roadster is going to be amazing.
> The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't live in California.
My roadster goes 340 miles on one charge. The upcoming 2020 Roadster goes 620 miles on one charge.
Admittedly, battery capacity costs money. Price-sensitivity is the reason most of these newly-announced cars don't have as much range. It is not a technical limitation.
And as with any such technology component, battery costs will continue to drop over time.
Your Roadster was a $100k vehicle when it's new (almost 2x as much as a M3 of the same year), the next Roadster starts at $200k.
For a six-figure vehicle, they better be ballers!
Where is my performance EV that's a competitor to the Miata or the Camero for $30k?
For a six-figure vehicle, they better be ballers!
Where is my performance EV that's a competitor to the Miata or the Camero for $30k?
It's nearing the end of the first inning of the electric car shift. The first inning is the introduction and infection of the idea that it's possible and then probable. Musk mostly took care of that. Since it's starting from expensive and moving down, your performance full-EV for a real $30k (non-tax credit dependent), is still at least ten years out. For now they're going to keep selling higher-end vehicles to wealthier people (Tesla etc) and smaller ugly vehicles to environmental buyers (Leaf, Bolt, etc).
The new Leaf isn't ugly at all, it looks quite good. Decent performance too.
>Electric cars are baller. They are fun to drive.
My Tesla Roadster does not corner like a Porsche 911, it's true, but it does not matter for everyday driving, because it is so effortlessly faster than anything else on the road, when I pull away from a stoplight, whoever I want to cut in front of is 50 feet behind me.
See I drive a Miata and there is nothing like it in the electric car world. The way you zoom from corner to corner without slowing. It’s interesting that people say electric cars and fun , then quantify it by saying it’s really fast but saying nothing about the handling. The good thing about a balanced and good handling car is that you can enjoy it all the time whereas straight line speed is becoming increasing irrelevant due to traffic and zealous speeding enforcement.
Put it this way how many seconds of full throttle will get you banned?*
*in the UK where a speeding ticket of 100mph plus is a ban.
See I drive a Miata and there is nothing like it in the electric car world. The way you zoom from corner to corner without slowing. It’s interesting that people say electric cars and fun , then quantify it by saying it’s really fast but saying nothing about the handling. The good thing about a balanced and good handling car is that you can enjoy it all the time whereas straight line speed is becoming increasing irrelevant due to traffic and zealous speeding enforcement.
Put it this way how many seconds of full throttle will get you banned?*
*in the UK where a speeding ticket of 100mph plus is a ban.
My last ICE car was a Mini Cooper JCW 6-speed. Still have it.
I love it for it's power-to-weight ratio and it's "go kart handling".
Besides being a daily driver it's been autocrossed and tracked plenty of times.
I have Miata friends and listen to the way they describe how tossable their cars are with a glimmer in their eye. I've driven their Miatas and I'd take my Mini's handling any day.
My current daily driver is a Model S 100D (not the P100D) and it is insanely fun to drive.
As far as daily drivers go I'd choose the Model S over the Mini 99 days out of 100.
It's over TWICE AS HEAVY as the Mini but that weight is about a foot off the ground, the suspension is more than up to the job of handling 2.5 tons, and it has a near 50/50 weight distribution.
The Mini might corner like a go kart, but the Model S corners like its on rails. I have just as much "fun" driving the Model S around town as the Mini but the effort put in to doing so is a mere fraction.
You present your Miata as a "balanced and good handling car", and I assure you; a competent electric car is 100% both of those things while also being effortless in traffic.
I grew up as a "driver" which is why the Mini is never going anywhere and other enthusiast ICE cars have made their way through my stable over the years. It's why I still choose a manual transmission car where I have to spool up the motor 1 day out of 100. And I don't foresee electric cars being realistic choices for a track day any time in the next 10-15 years.
But anybody who truly believes they aren't already sufficient for 99% of the car-buying public's needs* because they aren't "fun" either hasn't given one a shot or is in irrational denial.
* - Trucks are a different matter, but Musk hopes to change that soon, as well...
Besides being a daily driver it's been autocrossed and tracked plenty of times.
I have Miata friends and listen to the way they describe how tossable their cars are with a glimmer in their eye. I've driven their Miatas and I'd take my Mini's handling any day.
My current daily driver is a Model S 100D (not the P100D) and it is insanely fun to drive.
As far as daily drivers go I'd choose the Model S over the Mini 99 days out of 100.
It's over TWICE AS HEAVY as the Mini but that weight is about a foot off the ground, the suspension is more than up to the job of handling 2.5 tons, and it has a near 50/50 weight distribution.
The Mini might corner like a go kart, but the Model S corners like its on rails. I have just as much "fun" driving the Model S around town as the Mini but the effort put in to doing so is a mere fraction.
You present your Miata as a "balanced and good handling car", and I assure you; a competent electric car is 100% both of those things while also being effortless in traffic.
I grew up as a "driver" which is why the Mini is never going anywhere and other enthusiast ICE cars have made their way through my stable over the years. It's why I still choose a manual transmission car where I have to spool up the motor 1 day out of 100. And I don't foresee electric cars being realistic choices for a track day any time in the next 10-15 years.
But anybody who truly believes they aren't already sufficient for 99% of the car-buying public's needs* because they aren't "fun" either hasn't given one a shot or is in irrational denial.
* - Trucks are a different matter, but Musk hopes to change that soon, as well...
> And I don't foresee electric cars being realistic choices for a track day any time in the next 10-15 years.
Why not? People are already taking Teslas to track days, and doing quite well with them. They're faster than the majority of random cars that people are already bringing to track days. That's why track days have performance classes, so you don't have Civics competing directly against (and getting trounced by) Ferraris.
Why not? People are already taking Teslas to track days, and doing quite well with them. They're faster than the majority of random cars that people are already bringing to track days. That's why track days have performance classes, so you don't have Civics competing directly against (and getting trounced by) Ferraris.
>Put it this way how many seconds of full throttle will get you banned?
So your argument in favor of gas cars is that they are slow? Ok.
I had two Miatas, including one that I modified for autocross (SCCA CSP) and later turbo'ed. A Miata with 1.2 bar of boost is almost too much fun. Great cars! So I know what you are talking about.
About 4 years ago I leased a Chevy Spark EV, one of the most basic of tiny econo-hatches. I assume the gas one is pretty sad to drive. The electric one is brilliant. Instant silent thrust! One pedal driving! It was a revelation. I'm never going to buy another ICE car, they just don't drive right.
Try something like a Chevy Bolt or a Tesla and see for yourself.
So your argument in favor of gas cars is that they are slow? Ok.
I had two Miatas, including one that I modified for autocross (SCCA CSP) and later turbo'ed. A Miata with 1.2 bar of boost is almost too much fun. Great cars! So I know what you are talking about.
About 4 years ago I leased a Chevy Spark EV, one of the most basic of tiny econo-hatches. I assume the gas one is pretty sad to drive. The electric one is brilliant. Instant silent thrust! One pedal driving! It was a revelation. I'm never going to buy another ICE car, they just don't drive right.
Try something like a Chevy Bolt or a Tesla and see for yourself.
I can't help but feel that this conversation is missing the forest for the trees. The vast majority of people need cars to get them from point A to point B. They are not automobile racing enthusiasts who demand extreme cornering performance. If this were the only thing holding electric cars back, then electric cars could easily get to 99.X% market share, at which point there are an insignificant number of ICE cars remaining.
> Admittedly, battery capacity costs money. Price-sensitivity is the reason most of these newly-announced cars don't have as much range. It is not a technical limitation.
I disagree. The costs will drop, sure, but that's not particularly relevant for performance cars. The weight, on the other hand, will only increase with every bit of range you add. While electric cars can easily produce enough torque to still accelerate quickly (though how much range you'll really have driving that way is another question...), even with adaptive suspensions using magnetorheological dampers you can't cheat basic physics in corners.
And that's why I'd much rather have a BMW M3 (well, I'd prefer one of the AWD 911s, a V10 R8 or even an Audi RS4, but YMMV) than any electric car. Even if you value raw straight line acceleration that much, do note that the Tesla Roadster doesn't really compete with the BMW M3. You can get ICE vehicles with much better acceleration than an M3 that are still vastly superior in terms of handling to any Tesla.
I disagree. The costs will drop, sure, but that's not particularly relevant for performance cars. The weight, on the other hand, will only increase with every bit of range you add. While electric cars can easily produce enough torque to still accelerate quickly (though how much range you'll really have driving that way is another question...), even with adaptive suspensions using magnetorheological dampers you can't cheat basic physics in corners.
And that's why I'd much rather have a BMW M3 (well, I'd prefer one of the AWD 911s, a V10 R8 or even an Audi RS4, but YMMV) than any electric car. Even if you value raw straight line acceleration that much, do note that the Tesla Roadster doesn't really compete with the BMW M3. You can get ICE vehicles with much better acceleration than an M3 that are still vastly superior in terms of handling to any Tesla.
> The costs will drop, sure, but that's not particularly relevant for performance cars.
Conversely, cost is highly relevant for non performance cars, which, from the perspective of displacing transportation petroleum use, are far more important.
Once the typical EV range reaches the limit that a person can comfortably drive without taking a long break (~300 miles?), range anxiety becomes a non-issue.
Conversely, cost is highly relevant for non performance cars, which, from the perspective of displacing transportation petroleum use, are far more important.
Once the typical EV range reaches the limit that a person can comfortably drive without taking a long break (~300 miles?), range anxiety becomes a non-issue.
> Conversely, cost is highly relevant for non performance cars, which, from the perspective of displacing transportation petroleum use, are far more important.
Absolutely. I was responding to a post about performance cars, so I stuck to that.
> Once the typical EV range reaches the limit that a person can comfortably drive without taking a long break (~300 miles?), range anxiety becomes a non-issue.
I don't entirely buy the argument that range anxiety just goes away after some magic number. Charging times still impose constraints and require planning ahead, especially for longer trips. Even people who spend 99% of their time in short city commutes don't necessarily like the idea that they might not be free to just jump in their car and set off when they please.
Ultimately, no matter how far battery and charging tech advances, range and charging times will always be an objective disadvantage of electric cars vs ICE. When electric cars can actually outcompete ICE vehicles in price and other factors it may turn out to be a tradeoff most people are okay with, but we're not there yet.
Absolutely. I was responding to a post about performance cars, so I stuck to that.
> Once the typical EV range reaches the limit that a person can comfortably drive without taking a long break (~300 miles?), range anxiety becomes a non-issue.
I don't entirely buy the argument that range anxiety just goes away after some magic number. Charging times still impose constraints and require planning ahead, especially for longer trips. Even people who spend 99% of their time in short city commutes don't necessarily like the idea that they might not be free to just jump in their car and set off when they please.
Ultimately, no matter how far battery and charging tech advances, range and charging times will always be an objective disadvantage of electric cars vs ICE. When electric cars can actually outcompete ICE vehicles in price and other factors it may turn out to be a tradeoff most people are okay with, but we're not there yet.
For me, the biggest reason is not wanting to pollute the air in the city contributing to thousands of cancer deaths. Perhaps you think that's an "ideological reason". I find that rather sad, as to me it's clearly an ethical reason, which shouldn't be tied to a specific ideology. Unless you think if you're conservative, poisoning your fellow citizens is OK. I hope most conservatives don't think like that.
Anyway, other reasons are that electric cars accelerate more, won't be banned from cities like Paris, etc. any time soon, won't be affected by possible spikes in oil prices. Range and charging times are of course the biggest drawback, but it's getting better rather fast.
Anyway, other reasons are that electric cars accelerate more, won't be banned from cities like Paris, etc. any time soon, won't be affected by possible spikes in oil prices. Range and charging times are of course the biggest drawback, but it's getting better rather fast.
I wasn't making an argument about ideology or ethics, merely pointing out that my post was focused on the immediately measurable objective characteristics of cars - price and performance. I do recognize that people often buy electric cars due to ethical or philosophical preferences, and that's fine. Personally, I'm not a conservative and am generally concerned about air pollution in cities, though I don't think new non-diesel ICE vehicles are a primary issue in that regard in most cities in the world (there are exceptions, as always).
Actually most new (<5 year old) petrol cars use direct injection which emits much more fine soot particles than diesel with particle filter. In EU particle filter for petrol cars is only mandatory from 2017. Also worrysome that most of the particles are of the ultrafine type which is the most dangerous in terms of cancer-risk etc. https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/new-petrol-engine...
Modern petrol cars exhaust water vapor and carbon dioxide anyway.
In the cities I've lived in over the last 15 years, probably 90% of the taxis have been hybrid. I've seen FedEx, and even Coca-Cola running electric delivery trucks in urban areas.
I think a wholesale shift from gas/diesel to electric is a long way off, but certainly it seems that electric/hybrid is the end of compressed natural gas vehicles.
I think a wholesale shift from gas/diesel to electric is a long way off, but certainly it seems that electric/hybrid is the end of compressed natural gas vehicles.
Shenzhen just converted their entire bus fleet, 30,000 buses, to all electric.
Seattle, Vancouver, and other cities with abundant hydroelectric power have had electric bus fleets since at least the 1960's. Probably earlier. The only difference now is that instead of running wires overhead, you have to install charging stations.
> The performance of most electric cars is abysmal
The Leaf is the only car I have driven where the wife has said, "owe! stop doing that! my eyeballs hurt!"
I sense you may be bullshitting us.
The Leaf is the only car I have driven where the wife has said, "owe! stop doing that! my eyeballs hurt!"
I sense you may be bullshitting us.
Yes. Nobody doubts the future is electric (or partially fuel cell-based). But at least for the next half decade or so, we'll still see lots of internal combustion engines being produced. There will also still be some progress in making those engines cleaner and more efficient.
As a sidenote: that's why I liked platinum and rhodium as speculative investments in 2017 and I like them again for 2018. Platinum especially has been declared dead, exactly because of this "future is imminent" sentiment and nobody will supposedly need catalytic converters anymore. Platinum has been comatose for years on end now, despite production shortages and the supply side risk coming from South Africa's politics. Most platinum mines are operating at a loss.
As a sidenote: that's why I liked platinum and rhodium as speculative investments in 2017 and I like them again for 2018. Platinum especially has been declared dead, exactly because of this "future is imminent" sentiment and nobody will supposedly need catalytic converters anymore. Platinum has been comatose for years on end now, despite production shortages and the supply side risk coming from South Africa's politics. Most platinum mines are operating at a loss.
Most non-car folk synonymize performance with acceleration, when in fact acceleration is arguably less important than braking and cornering.
After all, what good is being able to go fast in a straight line if you can't brake or carry that speed through the corners?
After all, what good is being able to go fast in a straight line if you can't brake or carry that speed through the corners?
Exactly. And, with very few and very expensive exceptions, electric cars are useless at this. Electric cars have objective selling points, but I cringe every time I hear someone describe them as having "good performance".
Most mid priced ICE cars are also terrible at performance. Comparing a Leaf to a performance car like a BMW or Audi is nonsensical. They are targeted at completely different market segments.
Performance can also be relative, subjectively. My daily driver, a 2004 model 2.5L turbo diesel long wheelbase six-speed auto T5 Transporter, is at the workshop waiting to have a short length of wire that runs to the starter motor replaced. I'd do it myself, but talk about an inconveniently layed out engine bay. I digress. As far as vans go, it's fun to drive and has a bed in the back!
A friend loaned me her 1999 Vectra B[1] wagon, five-speed manual 2.2L 108 kW. Compared to the van, it corners like it's on rails! With myself behind the wheel of the Vectra I reckon I'd eat the E90 320i 115 kW[2] auto she replaced it with.
So, neither of these three vehicles are performance cars, but they're all quite fun to drive. Though I do toy with the idea of getting a Miata.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opel_Vectra#Vectra_B_(1995–200...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_3_Series_(E90)#Petrol
A friend loaned me her 1999 Vectra B[1] wagon, five-speed manual 2.2L 108 kW. Compared to the van, it corners like it's on rails! With myself behind the wheel of the Vectra I reckon I'd eat the E90 320i 115 kW[2] auto she replaced it with.
So, neither of these three vehicles are performance cars, but they're all quite fun to drive. Though I do toy with the idea of getting a Miata.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opel_Vectra#Vectra_B_(1995–200...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_3_Series_(E90)#Petrol
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Thirty five million people live in Florida, where the roads were laid out using graph paper, yet they still buy, and pay good money for, sports cars where the focus is on handling. The best bang for the buck here is acceleration.
To expand on something you stated, range is still very much an issue. How even "two hundred miles" became acceptable I will never know, apparently that is what marketing was told to push but the general public isn't buying into that.
Worse, that two hundred mile range is only good in mild to warm conditions. throw in winter conditions and it plummets. plus until automakers all adopt a higher voltage charging system similar to where Porsche is going adding range will just exaggerate how long it takes to charge.
Higher voltage charging is easier than higher amperage from both the size of cables internal and external as well as cooling. a trip in even the fastest available charging cars requires an hour diversion/stop per two hundred miles on average. this needs to get down to fifteen minutes with a range pushing beyond three hundred in winter.
instead of trying to encourage employers to install chargers at work more effort should be made toward the electrification of school and city bus lines. everyone who has ever been caught behind one knows the pollution factories they appear to be. initial up front costs will be high but it will keep districts insulated from volatile gasoline and diesel prices. delivery trucks already might be headed there but government investment into this area should be by example and where better than to have children on electric buses to tell mommy and daddy
Worse, that two hundred mile range is only good in mild to warm conditions. throw in winter conditions and it plummets. plus until automakers all adopt a higher voltage charging system similar to where Porsche is going adding range will just exaggerate how long it takes to charge.
Higher voltage charging is easier than higher amperage from both the size of cables internal and external as well as cooling. a trip in even the fastest available charging cars requires an hour diversion/stop per two hundred miles on average. this needs to get down to fifteen minutes with a range pushing beyond three hundred in winter.
instead of trying to encourage employers to install chargers at work more effort should be made toward the electrification of school and city bus lines. everyone who has ever been caught behind one knows the pollution factories they appear to be. initial up front costs will be high but it will keep districts insulated from volatile gasoline and diesel prices. delivery trucks already might be headed there but government investment into this area should be by example and where better than to have children on electric buses to tell mommy and daddy
I'll take 200 miles of range and the ease of plugging in every evening at home over 1,000 miles of range and the necessity of going to a gas station.
That works as long as you never need to drive more than 100 miles from home.
If I am doing that I probably want extra cargo capacity and will want to rent a van
I think you will be right, until there is another oil price shock. Then people will flip quickly, as electricity comes from domestic sources.
In the US, much of oil can be domestic, too. In Europe, things are pretty different (except maybe Norway).
But the price of oil is tied to the global market, regardless of whether it is produced in the US.
Only consumers in Western Europe pay ~2.5 to 3 times as much for fuel due to differences in taxation.[0][1]
[0] https://www.touring.be/nl/artikels/benzineprijzen-europa [1] https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
[0] https://www.touring.be/nl/artikels/benzineprijzen-europa [1] https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
Agreed. I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think. Nonetheless its an interesting article despite its slightly sniffy attitude to electrics because it highlights the scary predicament that the big automakers find themselves in.
Yeah. I've got a couple of good old fashioned regular performance cars here in the SF bay area. I'd love to have the excuse (read: carpool lane access, long commute, whatever) to buy an electric but there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle.
That said, the penetration rate of electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles here is staggering. The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. And I can see why -- if you want to plunk down all this cash for a new car, why not get something truly new, not something outdated?
My uncle is very frugal and has spent years looking at buying a new car and then up and ordered a (very base) Model S with the reasoning, if I'm spending all this money, I want to spend the money on future tech, not old tech.
Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.
That said, the penetration rate of electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles here is staggering. The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. And I can see why -- if you want to plunk down all this cash for a new car, why not get something truly new, not something outdated?
My uncle is very frugal and has spent years looking at buying a new car and then up and ordered a (very base) Model S with the reasoning, if I'm spending all this money, I want to spend the money on future tech, not old tech.
Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.
It already feels out of date
More than that, after six years of Leaf ownership it feels downright primitive. In our ‘81 VW it’s acceptable because, hey, it’s an old vehicle. You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. But in a modern $50K car? Turning mechanical gears to get that rattling contraption of an ICE going, gawd, I’m surprised you didn’t make me crank it by hand. To refuel it, I have to go out of my way to a specialist vendor? Not just plug it in when I get home?
Sounds silly unless you’ve owned an EV, but it truly represents my feelings even when driving our smooth, reliable Scion. But as the old canard goes, if I have to explain then you wouldn’t understand.
More than that, after six years of Leaf ownership it feels downright primitive. In our ‘81 VW it’s acceptable because, hey, it’s an old vehicle. You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. But in a modern $50K car? Turning mechanical gears to get that rattling contraption of an ICE going, gawd, I’m surprised you didn’t make me crank it by hand. To refuel it, I have to go out of my way to a specialist vendor? Not just plug it in when I get home?
Sounds silly unless you’ve owned an EV, but it truly represents my feelings even when driving our smooth, reliable Scion. But as the old canard goes, if I have to explain then you wouldn’t understand.
> You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah.
There is an argument to be made for this. In most new cars, whether ICE or electric, electric power steering racks have almost removed all feedback through the wheel.
Feedback is good, it communicates what the wheels are doing, what the road surface is like, what traction is like, etc... and I'd argue that good steering feedback is important for safe driving.
There is an argument to be made for this. In most new cars, whether ICE or electric, electric power steering racks have almost removed all feedback through the wheel.
Feedback is good, it communicates what the wheels are doing, what the road surface is like, what traction is like, etc... and I'd argue that good steering feedback is important for safe driving.
There is an argument to be made for this.
There most certainly is, for a tiny, tiny minority of people who buy cars. That’s why I used it as example. Picture the older middle-aged guy going on about how “cars back then..” until your eyes glaze (and if you’ve met me, you’ll have a working example). Yeah, nobody cares, old man, my ‘08 Corolla was cheap.
I already typed this before you deleted, so I’m putting it here. :-)
In summary, I think “feel” matters to a small number of people. To those that notice (I count myself amongst them), it’s pretty important. To the vast majority of drivers I think that as long as the car gets them to work it’s good enough.
The reason I used it as an example is because the ones I find that will argue the importance of “feel” are old, rambling guys like me. IOW, I was originally making of myself to some degree.
There most certainly is, for a tiny, tiny minority of people who buy cars. That’s why I used it as example. Picture the older middle-aged guy going on about how “cars back then..” until your eyes glaze (and if you’ve met me, you’ll have a working example). Yeah, nobody cares, old man, my ‘08 Corolla was cheap.
I already typed this before you deleted, so I’m putting it here. :-)
In summary, I think “feel” matters to a small number of people. To those that notice (I count myself amongst them), it’s pretty important. To the vast majority of drivers I think that as long as the car gets them to work it’s good enough.
The reason I used it as an example is because the ones I find that will argue the importance of “feel” are old, rambling guys like me. IOW, I was originally making of myself to some degree.
You could argue that it’s not that drivers don’t care for good steering feedback, but most drivers never get to experience good steering feedback and therefore don’t know what it is and how much it improves the driving experience. It’s kind of a Catch 22.
You've hit the nail on the head. I'm a performance fan who pulls his car apart to make it exactly the way I want. However, I recommend the 3 (once the price comes down a bit) to friends. If you want a car that makes transportation easy, Tesla is winning that race. I'd love to see other electrics catch up.
I bought an E46 M3 for mostly this reason (feel), and also because it's old enough I can still wrench on it. There's nothing like feeling the road in a car built for it.
I'm looking at getting an E46 330Ci and converting it to a track car. I found a fantastic example for £2,250.
[deleted]
Hmm, should I sell my ICE now before it becomes worthless?
Just got it last year too, ah well.
Just got it last year too, ah well.
'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'
http://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED...
http://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED...
You might enjoy this tongue-in-cheek 'Test Drive of a Petrol Car' written by a Swedish Tesla owner back in 2015
http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
That is fabulous!
> Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.
The way we northerners deal with that is to have a remote starter installed in our car. By the time we're done putting on our coats and shoes, kissing our wives, and brushing the accumulated snow off the car, the heater is blowing hot and it is fairly comfortable inside. I will grant that this does burn some gas, but how much range in comparison does an electric car sacrifice by heating the cabin off battery power over your entire commute?
The way we northerners deal with that is to have a remote starter installed in our car. By the time we're done putting on our coats and shoes, kissing our wives, and brushing the accumulated snow off the car, the heater is blowing hot and it is fairly comfortable inside. I will grant that this does burn some gas, but how much range in comparison does an electric car sacrifice by heating the cabin off battery power over your entire commute?
If your car is plugged in it can use wall power to pre-heat before your commute, similar to remote start.
Pre-heating is great, but if your commute is very long it can't make much difference. Traditionally, vehicles are very poorly insulated and it isn't a big problem because their heat is a free waste product. Electric vehicles really need a level of insulation they haven't even considered yet.
> The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers.
In the US, Tesla's home market, yes. But if you go to Europe, it changes completely - those three models you listed average a combined annual European sales volume north of 300 000, which is more than the global total of all Tesla cars ever sold.
The only way Tesla will be anything but an SV-hype-fueled anecdote is if they can actually deliver on the Model 3 next year, and it ain't looking too peachy. I mean, GM's outselling them on chargeable vehicles in the US this year.
In the US, Tesla's home market, yes. But if you go to Europe, it changes completely - those three models you listed average a combined annual European sales volume north of 300 000, which is more than the global total of all Tesla cars ever sold.
The only way Tesla will be anything but an SV-hype-fueled anecdote is if they can actually deliver on the Model 3 next year, and it ain't looking too peachy. I mean, GM's outselling them on chargeable vehicles in the US this year.
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ says Tesla 40812, GM 38699. That's with only 712 Model 3s sold. If the 3 ramps at all, it will not be close.
Edit: GM 38699. I initially missed the 179 CT6s, 21 Spark EVs, and 17 ELRs at the bottom of the table.
Edit: GM 38699. I initially missed the 179 CT6s, 21 Spark EVs, and 17 ELRs at the bottom of the table.
If you just repeat the November numbers in December, you get GM higher. The Bolt and Volt is actually ramping up, while Tesla is flat.
December numbers will be available in a couple of weeks, and then we'll know for sure. Model 3 numbers have ramped up in December. In 2018, unless Tesla has serious unfixable production problems, it won't be close. I don't know how many Model 3s Tesla can make next year, but I know they can sell them all...
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
December: Tesla 9335, GM 5173
December: Tesla 9335, GM 5173
[deleted]
> all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning
but the cold-start is the best part!
reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o
but the cold-start is the best part!
reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o
how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot
[EDIT: extended quote to full clause]
You need not wait longer than 15 seconds or so to put 'er in gear and go. This isn't Buffalo.
Does that make it less silly? I'm talking about the principles involved, not my lived experience. If it was merely a matter of being cold, you'd just say "put on another coat".
For your information, yes, I fire the car up, put on my seatbelt, close the garage door, put it in gear and go. But even in the mild bay area (it's been around 33-35 most mornings on the peninsula), I'm all the way across town before the coolant temp even comes off the low mark which is 124f, at which point SOME warm air starts coming out of the vents. But again, it's not a comfort complaint, it's a "electric cars make ICE cars seem dated" observation.
For your information, yes, I fire the car up, put on my seatbelt, close the garage door, put it in gear and go. But even in the mild bay area (it's been around 33-35 most mornings on the peninsula), I'm all the way across town before the coolant temp even comes off the low mark which is 124f, at which point SOME warm air starts coming out of the vents. But again, it's not a comfort complaint, it's a "electric cars make ICE cars seem dated" observation.
... the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot
You conveniently truncated the quote to change the issue. If they wanted heat, they have to wait longer than 15s.
You conveniently truncated the quote to change the issue. If they wanted heat, they have to wait longer than 15s.
I changed the quote to include the entire clause, but the concept still makes no sense to me in a Bay Area context (heck, I'm wearing shorts today).
How many EVs produce passenger heat in meaningful amounts immediately (even ignoring the added battery drain), and how much of a burden is 50+-degree in-car temperatures for a few minutes while you're already in outdoor clothing?
How many EVs produce passenger heat in meaningful amounts immediately (even ignoring the added battery drain), and how much of a burden is 50+-degree in-car temperatures for a few minutes while you're already in outdoor clothing?
Sure, in some areas. But it's a pretty annoying drawback when temperatures hover around 0F and the car can't even start defrosting the windshield for 10-15 minutes.
Few - Many electric cars use inefficient electric heat that draws as much battery power as the traction motors. Some have more efficient heat pumps, but not all. Regardless, heat is no more instant in an EV than a conventional vehicle.
Not to be technically correct, but electric heat is 100% efficient.
A heat pump can be more than 100% efficient in the sense you seem to be talking about. It transfers heat from one area to another, and can bring in more heat to a space than the energy used could produce in heat through a resistive heating element.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump
I think you were looking for this, http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/heatpump.h...
The world isn't SF. Some of us do live in NY, and I can assure you, it does get actually cold here. It's snowing right now for instance.
The parent commenter did specifically write that s/he is "here in the SF bay area."
So? The majority of Teslas aren't sold in SF. Having access to instant-on heat, rather than having to wait several minutes for the engine to warm up, is absolutely a benefit in places with cold winters.
I'm trying to redirect the conversation back to things that matter. The weather in SF last night doesn't matter, not really; it's just some ephemeral fact, and not even worth arguing about whether someone "needed" instant-on heat for it or not. What matters is electric vehicle models and sales worldwide, which is what the top-level article is about. Tesla is the most popular car manufacturer in Norway. You better believe that they appreciate instant-on heat there (as well as remote start), and that Teslas having these features gives them a competitive advantage.
I'm trying to redirect the conversation back to things that matter. The weather in SF last night doesn't matter, not really; it's just some ephemeral fact, and not even worth arguing about whether someone "needed" instant-on heat for it or not. What matters is electric vehicle models and sales worldwide, which is what the top-level article is about. Tesla is the most popular car manufacturer in Norway. You better believe that they appreciate instant-on heat there (as well as remote start), and that Teslas having these features gives them a competitive advantage.
I thought the killer feature of electric cars is recuperative braking. So I suppose that a reasonably lightweight electric car should be perfect for city commute with constant start / stop on traffic lights, and for congested roads of SV.
Long commute, OTOH, seems favorable for a well-built ICE car.
Long commute, OTOH, seems favorable for a well-built ICE car.
"there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle"
You mean no need in your life besides our shared need to reduce atmospheric carbon, oil extraction, and other automobile pollutants, to keep climate change to a level merely devastating rather than catastrophic, and to preserve a habitable planet for the generations to come?
You mean no need in your life besides our shared need to reduce atmospheric carbon, oil extraction, and other automobile pollutants, to keep climate change to a level merely devastating rather than catastrophic, and to preserve a habitable planet for the generations to come?
I'm pretty sure your old car would have to be especially awful to make buying a new car — electric or not — the environmentally friendly option.
Junking an older car with a newer electric car won't decrease your carbon footprint but increase it. But if you are in the market to buy a car going electric or hybrid should be the way to go. Obama fuel efficiency rules were good but didn't go far enough by now car manufacturer should not be allowed to sell non hybrid fuel cars at all.
I travel about 400 miles per month by car in a vehicle that gets 25mpg. That's 16 gallons/month or 281.6lb of CO2 per month.
What's the break-even on how many lbs of CO2 I'd have to pump into the atmosphere before it was more environmentally friendly to produce an entire new automobile with 800lbs of batteries?
What's the break-even on how many lbs of CO2 I'd have to pump into the atmosphere before it was more environmentally friendly to produce an entire new automobile with 800lbs of batteries?
I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think
Yes. That's the other thing: the best argument for an electric car is driving one—particularly a Tesla. The minute most of the population has access to one (from a friend, family, whatever), they're going to want one.
Yes. That's the other thing: the best argument for an electric car is driving one—particularly a Tesla. The minute most of the population has access to one (from a friend, family, whatever), they're going to want one.
I'm not sure how that would work. So far I see these obstacles/concerns:
1. Range. Right now I can drive ~400 miles on a fill. Can I get even close to that in EV?
2. Refills. I am pretty sure wherever I go, there would be a gas station within tens of miles. And I'm pretty sure most maps or GPS devices I would have would be able to point me to it. With electric car, not only I have to worry about finding charging station (or even plan the trip around its presence) but I'm not even sure how to find one. Would my GPS device show it? Would it work with my car (Tesla ones e.g. work only with Teslas)? Would I need some kind of subscription/registration to access it? I imagine being anxious about these things would be pretty annoying (unless it's already solved somehow - I have no idea).
3. Do I need to have charging station at home? What if I move - would I need to get a new one or pay to move it? What if I need to go somewhere at night and the car isn't charged yet? Would I need to buy special "fast charge" station? What if one day I'm too tired at the evening and forget to plug in the car for the night?
4. With ICE car, I am sure any competent mechanic would be able to take care of the most problems with my car. Electric cars are new, most mechanics had no training for them and no experience with them, and manufacturing solutions and practices would be very non-uniform - how I find the good service and how I make sure he doesn't use relative scarcity on the market to fleece me?
5. If I want to sell this car, what would the resale value be? Would I be able to resell it at all, or would it be the analogue of 5 year old smartphone, worth tiny fraction of the premium price it fetched only recently?
6. Wouldn't buying now, when the technology is still developing, lock me in with inferior first-try technology while superior one will show up in 5 years and make my car not only look like Flintstone's carriage but also drive its resale value down and maybe make it unusable due to chargers switching to newer superior standard of something?
I'd like to hear how these concerns are resolved.
1. Range. Right now I can drive ~400 miles on a fill. Can I get even close to that in EV?
2. Refills. I am pretty sure wherever I go, there would be a gas station within tens of miles. And I'm pretty sure most maps or GPS devices I would have would be able to point me to it. With electric car, not only I have to worry about finding charging station (or even plan the trip around its presence) but I'm not even sure how to find one. Would my GPS device show it? Would it work with my car (Tesla ones e.g. work only with Teslas)? Would I need some kind of subscription/registration to access it? I imagine being anxious about these things would be pretty annoying (unless it's already solved somehow - I have no idea).
3. Do I need to have charging station at home? What if I move - would I need to get a new one or pay to move it? What if I need to go somewhere at night and the car isn't charged yet? Would I need to buy special "fast charge" station? What if one day I'm too tired at the evening and forget to plug in the car for the night?
4. With ICE car, I am sure any competent mechanic would be able to take care of the most problems with my car. Electric cars are new, most mechanics had no training for them and no experience with them, and manufacturing solutions and practices would be very non-uniform - how I find the good service and how I make sure he doesn't use relative scarcity on the market to fleece me?
5. If I want to sell this car, what would the resale value be? Would I be able to resell it at all, or would it be the analogue of 5 year old smartphone, worth tiny fraction of the premium price it fetched only recently?
6. Wouldn't buying now, when the technology is still developing, lock me in with inferior first-try technology while superior one will show up in 5 years and make my car not only look like Flintstone's carriage but also drive its resale value down and maybe make it unusable due to chargers switching to newer superior standard of something?
I'd like to hear how these concerns are resolved.
1. My EV (Tesla Roadster, updated battery) goes 340 miles on one charge. Admittedly it is a small car. The new Tesla Roadster slated for 2020 goes 620 miles on one charge. Admittedly that is an expensive car. But you should be able to get good range in a less-expensive car at that point.
2. Newer Teslas (Model S, Model X, Model 3) have charger planning built into their standard map program. About other EVs, if I were an EV manufacturer I would do a license deal with Tesla to allow my cars to use their charging network. But maybe they'll build their own. The one Tesla built is pretty good ... if a small company can do that, GM can do way more, and do it faster. So even though "there's no infrastructure" has been raised as this huge problem for years, it does not in actuality look like much of a problem.
3. Good electric cars have their own charging circuitry built in, so you just plug it into the wall. You can even charge off 110 volts, though it takes a long time. A dryer socket is much more reasonable. Just being able to plug in your car, in your garage, is much more convenient than going to a gas station. (This presumes you have a garage to park in. If you park on the street, different story.)
4. Electric motors and drivetrains are much simpler and much more robust than mechanical engines and drivetrains. Electric cars just do not tend to need repair in the same way. (I have had my car for over 7 years and it has never yet needed a repair of this kind).
5. Tesla Roadsters still hold their value very well, considering. But this may be in part due to the fact that it's a rare car. I am not sure about the Leaf, etc.
6. Maybe, yeah.
2. Newer Teslas (Model S, Model X, Model 3) have charger planning built into their standard map program. About other EVs, if I were an EV manufacturer I would do a license deal with Tesla to allow my cars to use their charging network. But maybe they'll build their own. The one Tesla built is pretty good ... if a small company can do that, GM can do way more, and do it faster. So even though "there's no infrastructure" has been raised as this huge problem for years, it does not in actuality look like much of a problem.
3. Good electric cars have their own charging circuitry built in, so you just plug it into the wall. You can even charge off 110 volts, though it takes a long time. A dryer socket is much more reasonable. Just being able to plug in your car, in your garage, is much more convenient than going to a gas station. (This presumes you have a garage to park in. If you park on the street, different story.)
4. Electric motors and drivetrains are much simpler and much more robust than mechanical engines and drivetrains. Electric cars just do not tend to need repair in the same way. (I have had my car for over 7 years and it has never yet needed a repair of this kind).
5. Tesla Roadsters still hold their value very well, considering. But this may be in part due to the fact that it's a rare car. I am not sure about the Leaf, etc.
6. Maybe, yeah.
1. Tesla Roadster is a luxury car. It is literally order of magnitude more expensive than a common middle-class car. There's no possibility it can ever be considered as a replacement for common cars. As a toy for rich people with money to burn - sure, why not. But if we're talking about people not spending 200-250K on a car - which is vast majority of drivers - there's no point in considering such cars.
2. Again, Tesla is a luxury car, so describing it when talking about replacing common cars is pointless. Even the cheapest one is sitting on very top of what common middle-class car could cost, and it's not even released. If you want to replace common cars, you can't have cheapest model to cost $35K. There's literally no possibility most people would be able to afford that.
3. Charging from 110V would require whole night and even more. My house has one (1) dryer socket, which surprisingly is occupied by the dryer. Which leads one to think to have such car one has to undertake a costly (min. hourly rate in CA is about $100) project requiring a contractor, licensed electrician, permits, etc. And if one lives in an apartment which doesn't have built-in charging station - no chance.
4. Great to hear it, but again that was Tesla, as I understand. Can I expect the same from a car that doesn't cost six figures? I don't know. And the fact that it's simpler doesn't help much if the mechanic doesn't know it. Well, maybe it'll break down less, but we need to find out if that's still true for cheap models used in mass-driving conditions.
5. That's exactly my point - there's no developed market, so very little can be said about how it would look like. Sure, luxuries are always valued by people who are into luxuries and have money to spend. But about non-luxury market, that's different.
2. Again, Tesla is a luxury car, so describing it when talking about replacing common cars is pointless. Even the cheapest one is sitting on very top of what common middle-class car could cost, and it's not even released. If you want to replace common cars, you can't have cheapest model to cost $35K. There's literally no possibility most people would be able to afford that.
3. Charging from 110V would require whole night and even more. My house has one (1) dryer socket, which surprisingly is occupied by the dryer. Which leads one to think to have such car one has to undertake a costly (min. hourly rate in CA is about $100) project requiring a contractor, licensed electrician, permits, etc. And if one lives in an apartment which doesn't have built-in charging station - no chance.
4. Great to hear it, but again that was Tesla, as I understand. Can I expect the same from a car that doesn't cost six figures? I don't know. And the fact that it's simpler doesn't help much if the mechanic doesn't know it. Well, maybe it'll break down less, but we need to find out if that's still true for cheap models used in mass-driving conditions.
5. That's exactly my point - there's no developed market, so very little can be said about how it would look like. Sure, luxuries are always valued by people who are into luxuries and have money to spend. But about non-luxury market, that's different.
1. Sure, Tesla's whole plan, since the foundation of the company, was to start out making expensive cars and then to continually make them cheaper until they are completely mass-market. They have consistently followed this plan. So I don't see why you think they'd suddenly stop?
2. See 1.
3. Actually charging from 110v would take more than overnight -- several days at least if you are empty! It's very slow (it's a lot slower than half a 220v because a certain amount of power goes to overhead like cooling the batteries during charging). Even so, I got by on 110v for years. As for having (1) dryer socket ... buy a splitter cord for 5 bucks? I am not sure why you think you need a contractor and permits, unless you are just trying to fabricate reasons why electric cars are a problem.
4. See 1.
5. The market today is tremendously more developed than it was in 2008 when Tesla started selling their first car, and everyone thought electric cars were just golf carts that were completely infeasible. Why do you think this trend would stop now? On the luxury point ... see 1.
2. See 1.
3. Actually charging from 110v would take more than overnight -- several days at least if you are empty! It's very slow (it's a lot slower than half a 220v because a certain amount of power goes to overhead like cooling the batteries during charging). Even so, I got by on 110v for years. As for having (1) dryer socket ... buy a splitter cord for 5 bucks? I am not sure why you think you need a contractor and permits, unless you are just trying to fabricate reasons why electric cars are a problem.
4. See 1.
5. The market today is tremendously more developed than it was in 2008 when Tesla started selling their first car, and everyone thought electric cars were just golf carts that were completely infeasible. Why do you think this trend would stop now? On the luxury point ... see 1.
1. Surely, and if they ever have a $15K model, or even $20K model, my estimate about how soon the transition would happen would change. As of now, I think the pricing points are such that only rich (and rich by SV standards, which are significantly higher then the rest of the country) people can afford it. So the transition has no way of happening. I am not saying it will never happen - I am saying it's not nearly close now.
3. I am speaking from experience of what doing non-trivial stuff takes. E.g., installing AC requires permits. Maybe installing proper (not "more than overnight") charger does not, if it's just using a splitter cord then it's good news.
5. I do not think it will stop now. I think it's still far from where we could see mass transition from ICE to electrical cars. In 10 years? Sure, why not. Right now? Don't see it.
3. I am speaking from experience of what doing non-trivial stuff takes. E.g., installing AC requires permits. Maybe installing proper (not "more than overnight") charger does not, if it's just using a splitter cord then it's good news.
5. I do not think it will stop now. I think it's still far from where we could see mass transition from ICE to electrical cars. In 10 years? Sure, why not. Right now? Don't see it.
There are a lot of electrics that aren't luxury cars and have range in 100-200 mile range. Most gas cars I've seen have a 300 mile range befor refueling..
The thing about an electric if you park at home the tank is always full in the morning. No more stopping for gas in the daily commute. Long road trips are a different story.
The thing about an electric if you park at home the tank is always full in the morning. No more stopping for gas in the daily commute. Long road trips are a different story.
So these things you mention are the reason why it hasn't happened already. There's quite wide agreement that the changeover to electric is going to happen, which implicitly means these things will be addressed. The question is whether it will take 5 years, 10 years or 20 years.
1. Range: There are cars on the market now for $35k that have 200+ mile range. Range will continue to go up and price will continue to come down for the next few decades. Whether 200 miles is enough depends on your point no. 2 so...
2. Generally, you plug your car in at night and start each day with 100% range. For most European lifestyles 200 miles in a day will deal with 95% of days. Granted, the US is more spread out so people drive further. But the crucial point is that 'going to the gas station' doesn't really have an equivalent with electric. On a long journey you recharge at highway stops, but the rest of the time you just charge at night. Highway chargers are fast and charge times are generally 20 to 40min to get to 80% range. I generally find that by the time I've got the kids out the car, had a wee, had a snack, the car is ready to go.
3. Yes ideally you need a charging station at home. In my country you get a 500 GBP grant from the government which covers the cost of installation in most cases. chargers are fairly simple to install. Granted, houses with no off-street parking are tricky.
4. Generally there are a lot fewer moving parts and less to go wrong but yes we will need mechanics. As more electric cars are sold, I expect more electric mechanics will appear.
5. True, resell for say Nissan Leaf is not that good, due to rate of improvement of new models over the old ones. Teslas hold their value quite well I hear, it remains to be seen how the Tesla model 3 will go. A lot of people buy their cars on 3 year PCP contracts in which the manufacturer offers to re-buy the car at 50% price after 3 years, I guess a lot of people might do that?
6. Yeah a bit, e.g. my 2016 Leaf isn't as good as the 2017 or 2018 one. But now that we've cracked 200 mile range (Bolt and Tesla Model 3) I think we're in the 'good enough' space. Chargers are fairly settled, there are 2 or 3 standards that are widely supported and are not expected to change that much over the next few years. Adapters are generaly available to make most cars fit most chargers. Speeds and power of chargers will increase but the existing standards allow for that.
1. Range: There are cars on the market now for $35k that have 200+ mile range. Range will continue to go up and price will continue to come down for the next few decades. Whether 200 miles is enough depends on your point no. 2 so...
2. Generally, you plug your car in at night and start each day with 100% range. For most European lifestyles 200 miles in a day will deal with 95% of days. Granted, the US is more spread out so people drive further. But the crucial point is that 'going to the gas station' doesn't really have an equivalent with electric. On a long journey you recharge at highway stops, but the rest of the time you just charge at night. Highway chargers are fast and charge times are generally 20 to 40min to get to 80% range. I generally find that by the time I've got the kids out the car, had a wee, had a snack, the car is ready to go.
3. Yes ideally you need a charging station at home. In my country you get a 500 GBP grant from the government which covers the cost of installation in most cases. chargers are fairly simple to install. Granted, houses with no off-street parking are tricky.
4. Generally there are a lot fewer moving parts and less to go wrong but yes we will need mechanics. As more electric cars are sold, I expect more electric mechanics will appear.
5. True, resell for say Nissan Leaf is not that good, due to rate of improvement of new models over the old ones. Teslas hold their value quite well I hear, it remains to be seen how the Tesla model 3 will go. A lot of people buy their cars on 3 year PCP contracts in which the manufacturer offers to re-buy the car at 50% price after 3 years, I guess a lot of people might do that?
6. Yeah a bit, e.g. my 2016 Leaf isn't as good as the 2017 or 2018 one. But now that we've cracked 200 mile range (Bolt and Tesla Model 3) I think we're in the 'good enough' space. Chargers are fairly settled, there are 2 or 3 standards that are widely supported and are not expected to change that much over the next few years. Adapters are generaly available to make most cars fit most chargers. Speeds and power of chargers will increase but the existing standards allow for that.
I think gasoline engines will stick around much longer than most people expect. They are a known commodity and many people have invested time and money into learning how to operate and maintain them. For example it's been brutally cold where I live lately and I know my gasoline engine works just fine in these conditions. If it fails to crank I know how to jump start it. I know to let it warm up a bit before turning high RPMs. I don't know anything about how electric cars would fare in these cold conditions. They may work just fine too but I have no experience to back that up. I'll learn at some point but a lot of people never will.
I agree, I think we have at least another one, perhaps two decades with gasoline engines. The sad news is that displacement will continue to get smaller, even in sports cars. The transition from the Porsche 981 to 718 is a great example of how to ruin the perfect sports car.
FYI, in cold weather this is what you need to do with an electric car:
1. Turn it on
2. Drive off
Optionally, step 0: Use the app on your phone to tell the car to warm up, defrost the windscreen etc while you are in the house having breakfast.
Range does suffer in cold temperatures; similarly ICE engines are less efficient in cold temperatures.
1. Turn it on
2. Drive off
Optionally, step 0: Use the app on your phone to tell the car to warm up, defrost the windscreen etc while you are in the house having breakfast.
Range does suffer in cold temperatures; similarly ICE engines are less efficient in cold temperatures.
Building on your "lack of charging infrastructure," I think it's worth noting that there has been a huge shift from owning to renting in the last decade or so. It's easy to add an electric charger to a house you own, but if you rent the house or apartment, it's not going to happen.
If you live in a newer apartment building, you might get lucky and they'll have chargers in the parking garage. But when I lived in such a building in Chicago, the chargers were ALWAYS full. It was a large building, and there were probably 40 or 50 of them across a five-story garage.
If you live in a newer apartment building, you might get lucky and they'll have chargers in the parking garage. But when I lived in such a building in Chicago, the chargers were ALWAYS full. It was a large building, and there were probably 40 or 50 of them across a five-story garage.
Both California and Illinois mandate by law rentals allowing you to install a charger (at your cost). Other states have similar legislation pending.
That doesn't seem like a very good deal, though. You have to pay a sizable chunk of cash to improve somebody else's property and insure it for a million dollars. That is a much worse proposition than installing a charger in your house. I'm not sure how useful it is to your average renter who is just looking to buy a car.
Installing a home charging station costs around $2000 these days. If you're buying a $30-60k car and move infrequently it won't be that huge of a portion of the total cost of ownership of the car.
Since I had room in the panel for an additional breaker installing a level 2 EVSE (charger) on the driveway side of the house was only $350. I paid $550 for the charger itself. Total cost $900.
Offsetting that:
- $500 rebate/credit from GM for buying a Chevy Spark EV and a charger.
- $500 cash from PG&E
- $150 or so federal tax credit
- Increased value of my house with EV charger.
Overall, I think I made about $500 on this install.
Best part, I haven't been to a gas station more than a dozen times in the last four years. I love not going to gas stations.
Overall, I think I made about $500 on this install.
Best part, I haven't been to a gas station more than a dozen times in the last four years. I love not going to gas stations.
>I haven't been to a gas station more than a dozen times in the last four years.
Where do you buy your Andy Capp Hot Fries?
Where do you buy your Andy Capp Hot Fries?
And a dryer outlet, which is plenty for home charging, is just a fraction of that much.
It’s a happy medium until we can improve on the situation.
I thought it was interesting that the article focussed on trends in the US market, which seems the least EV-friendly (from what I hear, fuel prices are half what they are in the EU).
I think cost is a big one too. Nearly all electric cars in the US could be considered 'Luxury' by price tag. The Leaf is an exception, but it also scores high on the factors you've listed so its lukewarm reception is understandable.
See also: Chevvy Bolt, Tesla Model 3
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Soon their biggest problem won't even be "making a good EV", because they all seem to have started working on EV platforms from scratch - which, let's not kid ourselves - they would've never done if not for Tesla. They would've just dragged their feet re-purposing old ICE cars into EVs, which has significant drawbacks in terms of overall battery efficiency as well as maximum range.
So now that this is (almost) out of the way, their biggest problem will be making batteries fast enough. I predict that once there are enough models on the market and the prices are much more competitive compared to ICE cars, which should happen around 2022, there will be an explosion in demand. And it's going to take them off-guard because they won't have enough battery supply planned out for the short 1-2 year term. They'll have to "drop everything" and start building battery factories like crazy. I'm talking a total demand of close to 1 TWh year, by 2025, for EVs alone (which should be maybe around 15-20 million EVs a year, globally).
The only one that will sale through smoothly will be Tesla at that point, which by 2023 will likely have a second gigafactory close to finished, and even Tesla may struggle a bit to keep up with the demand, because they'll have not only their customers, but the customers of all the other carmakers that failed to supply enough EVs to their loyal base.
Chinese manufacturers may also have a better time, because China is already seeing an explosion in EV demand, backed by the government, so they will have a much better feel for the EV demand by then.
Meanwhile, most European and Japanese carmakers will be left wondering why no one is coming to check out their latest "breakthrough in diesel technology" at trade shows anymore.
So now that this is (almost) out of the way, their biggest problem will be making batteries fast enough. I predict that once there are enough models on the market and the prices are much more competitive compared to ICE cars, which should happen around 2022, there will be an explosion in demand. And it's going to take them off-guard because they won't have enough battery supply planned out for the short 1-2 year term. They'll have to "drop everything" and start building battery factories like crazy. I'm talking a total demand of close to 1 TWh year, by 2025, for EVs alone (which should be maybe around 15-20 million EVs a year, globally).
The only one that will sale through smoothly will be Tesla at that point, which by 2023 will likely have a second gigafactory close to finished, and even Tesla may struggle a bit to keep up with the demand, because they'll have not only their customers, but the customers of all the other carmakers that failed to supply enough EVs to their loyal base.
Chinese manufacturers may also have a better time, because China is already seeing an explosion in EV demand, backed by the government, so they will have a much better feel for the EV demand by then.
Meanwhile, most European and Japanese carmakers will be left wondering why no one is coming to check out their latest "breakthrough in diesel technology" at trade shows anymore.
I don’t think companies like Toyota are scared of Tesla. I think they’re skeptical of American consumers’ sudden shift in willingness to buy electric, after decades of mixed signals (to put it lightly). The Prius was a huge hit, and every automaker wants to hit that sweet spot next. It’s not about technology alone. You need to read the buyers, and America vacillates wildly between being eager to ditch ice, and stubbornly anti-green.
This is not (only) about being green. Electric cars are a pleasure to drive, they are less costly to maintain and repair (far less moving pieces), they are cheaper to run (at least in Europe, don't know in the US), and you can charge them at home (this is more of an advantage in the US than in Europe).
Even the most anti-green buyers will prefer electric vehicles in ~10 years (if no sooner)
Even the most anti-green buyers will prefer electric vehicles in ~10 years (if no sooner)
After test driving a Tesla, and seeing how much better the simple driving experience will be in a decent electric car (one pedal driving, heating and cooling divorced from a running and wasteful/toxic engine, a car that gets software updates for more than 6 months...), I don’t think I can ever consider buying another ICE. If I still commuted, I’d find some way to justify a Bolt, Leaf, or Model 3.
Lithium ion batteries are both toxic in production and disposal.
[deleted]
The first version of your post said that lithium ion batteries were toxic in production and disposal (both claims entirely false). You've now changed the entire comment to CO2 output for battery production (even though battery production will continue to decline in CO2 impact as grid energy sources continue to tilt towards renewables).
> Therefore, the study has calculated that a fossil fuel vehicle can currently drive for more than eight years before it reaches the same environmental impact of a Tesla. For the Nissan Leaf, with its smaller capacity battery, this figure comes in at three years.
Both Teslas and Leafs will be on the road beyond the eight and three years you quoted, putting their production at a net positive even before the above mentioned improvements take place.
> Therefore, the study has calculated that a fossil fuel vehicle can currently drive for more than eight years before it reaches the same environmental impact of a Tesla. For the Nissan Leaf, with its smaller capacity battery, this figure comes in at three years.
Both Teslas and Leafs will be on the road beyond the eight and three years you quoted, putting their production at a net positive even before the above mentioned improvements take place.
Apologies, I thought I’d edit a useless, incorrect comment into something useful and contributive to the discussion. It wasn’t an act of manipulation or deception.
I have restored the original comment.
I have restored the original comment.
If you do that, it's common on HN to include a note regarding how you changed it, particularly if the edit is substantive.
I’ve removed the offending sentence from my comment as well regarding intent. My apologies for not assuming positive intent.
What? I had a 2002 RAV4 I just sold, I never spent anything significant on maintenance. Besides tires and a single battery replacement, I spent nearly zero. I neglected most oil changes—probably got a total of 4 since 2002. Never got a tuneup, never changed the breaks...hell I think I washed it two times total. The mechanic that inspected it before the sale said it was in great condition and would run forever.
You are severely underestimating the cost of replacing the batteries for an electric car. Batteries are still the most expensive part of electronic cars—and are a consumable.
You are severely underestimating the cost of replacing the batteries for an electric car. Batteries are still the most expensive part of electronic cars—and are a consumable.
Our 1998 Camry is going strong. ~24mpg
And, last year we bought a new ICE Civic for $22k it averages 33mpg according to its computer.
I have friend who bought a Leaf in Seattle. She was always jonesing for a charge because her apartment didn't have access to power in the parking lot. Nor did her workplace. Not sure what she was thinking.
And, last year we bought a new ICE Civic for $22k it averages 33mpg according to its computer.
I have friend who bought a Leaf in Seattle. She was always jonesing for a charge because her apartment didn't have access to power in the parking lot. Nor did her workplace. Not sure what she was thinking.
Haha...hopefully she lives in Seattle proper and gets electricity from Seattle City Light which is almost all hydro. If she lives in the grater metropolitan area and is on Puget Sound Energy, her Leaf is mostly coal powered.
Out of curiosity did you do regular oil changes for the first 40-60k miles? In my experience once the engine is broken in there's little harm in changing oil only as needed. I've gone 60k between oil changes before. As long as the oil in the engine isn't filthy I just top it to meet levels. Never had any problems.
I didn't, I did feel guilty about it, well until the mechanic said it was in great condition. I mean maybe when I first bought it I did a few I don't remember...but I seriously can't recall specifics about more that four times—two of which were when my mom was visiting an saw I was like 20k past the window decal from the last oil change.
I agree, but there is a very sizable constituency in the US that will only relinquish their ICE over their dead body. In fact, that was pretty much the mainstream sentiment, nurtured no doubt by oil interests and a kind of nostalgia for America’s glory days that seems thankfully to be giving way to a hope for new glory days under the banner of Tesla. From Toyota’s perspective, the nationalist undercurrent must be a concern. Interesting then that Toyota is, I believe, still in the top ten most “American” automakers, based on domestic assembly. Honda is even higher on that list, last I checked.
Haven't GM and Nissan both shipped more "mass market" electric cars than Tesla?
Nissan had, at some point, sold more Leafs than Tesla ahad sold Model S's, because Tesla didn't really start selling cars in large numbers till 2013 so Nissan had a bit of a head start. I don't think GM have sold that many pure electrics although the Bolt is out-producing the Model 3 right at this moment.
But if you factor in Tesla's plans for the next 24 months or so, which they seem capable of pulling off, then no-one else is going to be able to catch up with them for five years or so.
But if you factor in Tesla's plans for the next 24 months or so, which they seem capable of pulling off, then no-one else is going to be able to catch up with them for five years or so.
When I say "mass market" I'm talking about cars that start less than $50,000 (and then it's still sarcastic).
If Tesla are moving faster than everyone else backwards looking metrics should pick up on it soon enough.
If Tesla are moving faster than everyone else backwards looking metrics should pick up on it soon enough.
Well OK, yes, I kindof missed your "mass market" specifier. Tesla have only shipped a few thousand Model 3's so far. But they have 400,000 reservations that they intend to fulfil in the next 24 months or so. And that's a big challenge to everyone else.
> Tesla has the rest of the industry scared, so they're all rushing to announce electric models so they don't get left behind.
And that for me is the real risk. Too much herd mentality, too little thinking. There is likely just one chance in our lifetime to get such a big transition right. It’s still an open discussion if electric cars really do provide the needed environmental breakthrough (even if they are fueled with green energy). I believe there should have been, e.g., more investment in alternatives such as hydrogen before committing the world to electric cars
And that for me is the real risk. Too much herd mentality, too little thinking. There is likely just one chance in our lifetime to get such a big transition right. It’s still an open discussion if electric cars really do provide the needed environmental breakthrough (even if they are fueled with green energy). I believe there should have been, e.g., more investment in alternatives such as hydrogen before committing the world to electric cars
About a month ago I bought a used electric car as complement to our gasoline-powered family car. We live deep in the French countryside and virtually all our day-to-day rides are within 25km of home, and we drive about 1500km/month, not including long drives.
By my calculations we're saving about 150€/month on fuel, while the car itself costs 230€ including insurance and charging, so we basically get a second car for 80€/month, and lower the maintenance costs and depreciation on the gas guzzler. Other benefits are near-zero maintenance (no oil change, less brake wear), zero registration cost, a quiet and fun ride, and zero pollution!
For our situation an electric makes perfect sense! I'm actually looking forward to trading our first car for an electric, once it becomes economically viable.
By my calculations we're saving about 150€/month on fuel, while the car itself costs 230€ including insurance and charging, so we basically get a second car for 80€/month, and lower the maintenance costs and depreciation on the gas guzzler. Other benefits are near-zero maintenance (no oil change, less brake wear), zero registration cost, a quiet and fun ride, and zero pollution!
For our situation an electric makes perfect sense! I'm actually looking forward to trading our first car for an electric, once it becomes economically viable.
Plus the electricity in France is enviably green:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media...
enviably, I'm not so sure...
Most of the plants are quite old, and will cost a ton to renovate (~50B euros for the "Grand Carenage") or close.
They also represent a growing risk as they get older.
There is also the well known issue of waste management.
Right now, it's actually more expensive per kWh produced.
Also as it's backed by a well established nuclear industry, there is an important nuclear lobby which slows down renewable energy sources development.
This industry is slowly dying (Areva had to be bailed-out basically a few years ago, and abroad, the bankruptcy of Westinghouse comes to mind), not the best horse to bet on.
Is it better than coal plants? probably, but it's far from a silver bullet.
To go back to electric car (and electric transport in general). One thing I rarely see discussed is the necessary increase in electricity production that a full switch to EV would require. How much bigger the output of electricity will have to be? 30%, 50%? Right now, given the really small proportion of EV, it's just a blip, but on a massive scale?
Most of the plants are quite old, and will cost a ton to renovate (~50B euros for the "Grand Carenage") or close.
They also represent a growing risk as they get older.
There is also the well known issue of waste management.
Right now, it's actually more expensive per kWh produced.
Also as it's backed by a well established nuclear industry, there is an important nuclear lobby which slows down renewable energy sources development.
This industry is slowly dying (Areva had to be bailed-out basically a few years ago, and abroad, the bankruptcy of Westinghouse comes to mind), not the best horse to bet on.
Is it better than coal plants? probably, but it's far from a silver bullet.
To go back to electric car (and electric transport in general). One thing I rarely see discussed is the necessary increase in electricity production that a full switch to EV would require. How much bigger the output of electricity will have to be? 30%, 50%? Right now, given the really small proportion of EV, it's just a blip, but on a massive scale?
In addition some electricity providers will sell you "green electricity", meaning they'll commit to buying the amount you consume from renewable sources.
Or even better: commit to build renewable capacity to cover their customers to avoid that the “green” energy is simply taken away from the power mix of everyone else
The fuel price is the difference between Europe and the US. I don't think I've ever spent 150€/month on fuel in the car I commute in, despite it getting terrible mileage (~12L/100km) due to its age.
while my fuel costs are nothing close to the poster you responded too, in the US my commute is 54 miles and my Volt in mild to warm weather gets this easily on one charge. I have not added gasoline to the car since I bought it in March 2017.
While I do work at home a lot I have saved a tank of gas every other week while never having to worry about range anxiety as the range extender will cover me.
While I do work at home a lot I have saved a tank of gas every other week while never having to worry about range anxiety as the range extender will cover me.
Is there special maintenance on plug-in hybrids? I thought gasoline had a shelf life of something like 6-12 months?
Our family car does 7l/100km on country roads, which is about 10€/100km at current prices.
Tangent, but how do you enjoy living in the French countryside? Are you a native to the area? What is life like there?
Is there a specific reason you bought a second car? Because the real zero pollution option here is not buying another car.
Given that it's a used car, and under the assumption that every electric km driven is displacing a fuel km driven, why would this be true?
Depends on the likelihood that had OP not purchased the vehicle, that the person who would would be using it to replace their own end of life car.
Also depends on how likely the OP will drive their gasoline car to completion.
Basically all comes down to how much the energy/carbon/pollution cost of the gasoline vehicle will be amortized over its useful life.
Also depends on how likely the OP will drive their gasoline car to completion.
Basically all comes down to how much the energy/carbon/pollution cost of the gasoline vehicle will be amortized over its useful life.
Are you married? Have kids? Good luck with one car.
If you don’t, you won’t be living in an urban environment when you do, because you’ll want your kids to have a good education. You also won’t have money to waste on Uber.
If you don’t, you won’t be living in an urban environment when you do, because you’ll want your kids to have a good education. You also won’t have money to waste on Uber.
We live in a rural area with one car, kids got a fantastic education, there is no Uber within 75 miles, not everywhere is so car dependent as America.
We have an SW car and an e-powered cargo bike, and that’s enough. 2 little kids, and I play in a band. And we do live in an area where you have to have a vehicle. It’s doable. I mostly use one of the bikes to commute (either to the train, 4km away, or 2nd office, 3km away).
The real point here: “Although today’s drivers aren’t too excited about battery cars, tougher regulations in places like China and the power-thirsty needs of driverless features could help speed the transition along”
It’s all about China. They have proven far more willing to impose their will on the market than any other country. China could very well ban all fossil fuel vehicles in one act and make king of whatever companies can supply them with electric cars.
Too much of the article is spent hand wringing over the US Market. The US Market is mature, stable, boring, and midsized. The real action is China and India.
It’s all about China. They have proven far more willing to impose their will on the market than any other country. China could very well ban all fossil fuel vehicles in one act and make king of whatever companies can supply them with electric cars.
Too much of the article is spent hand wringing over the US Market. The US Market is mature, stable, boring, and midsized. The real action is China and India.
It’s appropriate to compare a sudden change in a stable, mature market to a much less developed market that might not make a change at all. China has built entire cities without people moving to them. Just because a government demonstrates a strong imposement of will does not ensure wide adoption. Anything that dramatically changes a mature, replacement-driven market will materialize quicker and more profitably in the immediate.
Two things this article leaves out, both relating to China.
First, China has mandated that its domestic automakers sell 12% of their vehicles as all-electric or hybrid by 2020. There's your jumpstart for demand, as artificial as it may be. Policies in parts of Europe will help as well.
Second, China has several dozen domestic automakers, which must account for a fairly large share of these 127 battery-electric models mentioned in the article. Though the article also says 75 models have been announced that will sell in the US, and as far as I know none of the purely domestic Chinese automakers are in the US market today.
First, China has mandated that its domestic automakers sell 12% of their vehicles as all-electric or hybrid by 2020. There's your jumpstart for demand, as artificial as it may be. Policies in parts of Europe will help as well.
Second, China has several dozen domestic automakers, which must account for a fairly large share of these 127 battery-electric models mentioned in the article. Though the article also says 75 models have been announced that will sell in the US, and as far as I know none of the purely domestic Chinese automakers are in the US market today.
There was a huge scandal in the last year with more than a few Chinese car companies taking advantage of EV subsidies with bogus projects, so they basically had to do a reset on their plans with the quota instead.
https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29
https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-ch...
BYD has done well enough, I've ridden in an E5 taxi more than a few times. This and the Model S were the only electric passenger cars I saw in Beijing circa late 2016.
https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29
https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-ch...
BYD has done well enough, I've ridden in an E5 taxi more than a few times. This and the Model S were the only electric passenger cars I saw in Beijing circa late 2016.
China smells the disruption here. The US and Japanese automakers are delusionally living in the 1900s and when it comes down to it they will be playing catchup.
Earlier this week I was at a mall with a Tesla shop and about 5 supercharger in the parking lot. Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots. Street parking will need the same as will office and residential parking lots.
What happens currently is a multiplication of private charging network, which is good, except that you need to pay a monthly fee for access, then a fee per connection and finally a fee per minute or kWh. It costs 10 GBP extra fee if you haven't a monthly registration. So if you need to charge your Tesla (let's assume 60 kWh) on a network you are not registered that's going to cost you: 31.80 GBP ! OK it is still less expensive than petrol, but that's not longer an order of magnitude under.
I'm a bit afraid that in parallel to the legislation terminating the sales of ICE cars, there isn't any kind of legislation for the charging networks being put in place. Those private network will have to fight to install point on the public road, meaning the competition will be to win the local authorities, not on the consumer side. Failure to do something will lead to a situation quite similar to broadband in the US, with car driver required to pay several monthly fees to various network in order to make sure they can top up their car.
It is a bit offtopic, but until that day it never occurred to me that the golden age of electric car ownership is today! With lots of free goodies thrown your way, but all of that will dry up by the time the common folk get their EV and the future will look much like the present in term of cost of driving hidden in a few extra monthly fees tacked to your account. At least it's a win for the environment.
What happens currently is a multiplication of private charging network, which is good, except that you need to pay a monthly fee for access, then a fee per connection and finally a fee per minute or kWh. It costs 10 GBP extra fee if you haven't a monthly registration. So if you need to charge your Tesla (let's assume 60 kWh) on a network you are not registered that's going to cost you: 31.80 GBP ! OK it is still less expensive than petrol, but that's not longer an order of magnitude under.
I'm a bit afraid that in parallel to the legislation terminating the sales of ICE cars, there isn't any kind of legislation for the charging networks being put in place. Those private network will have to fight to install point on the public road, meaning the competition will be to win the local authorities, not on the consumer side. Failure to do something will lead to a situation quite similar to broadband in the US, with car driver required to pay several monthly fees to various network in order to make sure they can top up their car.
It is a bit offtopic, but until that day it never occurred to me that the golden age of electric car ownership is today! With lots of free goodies thrown your way, but all of that will dry up by the time the common folk get their EV and the future will look much like the present in term of cost of driving hidden in a few extra monthly fees tacked to your account. At least it's a win for the environment.
As a Tesla owner this logic seems very strange to me. I hardly ever use the superchargers at a location like a mall unless I'm stopping at the mall specifically for the charging station. So it's clear to me that the mall has the supercharger to drive traffic to the mall, not because people at the mall need to charge their cars. When I'm just doing day-to-day driving I always charge at home, and don't even do so every day.
In fact, the beauty of owning an electric car for me has been the fact that my home acts as the "gas station" and I almost never need to think about charging my car elsewhere.
I think the focus, instead of being the mall or on-street parking, would be apartment buildings/multi-family homes. Having a parking spot per unit with a charger, or at least some equitable way of sharing chargers within a building, will be a necessary step to electrification.
In fact, the beauty of owning an electric car for me has been the fact that my home acts as the "gas station" and I almost never need to think about charging my car elsewhere.
I think the focus, instead of being the mall or on-street parking, would be apartment buildings/multi-family homes. Having a parking spot per unit with a charger, or at least some equitable way of sharing chargers within a building, will be a necessary step to electrification.
The economics in Europe are very different from the USA. In the US, the retailer would bite the electricity/infrastructure cost to drive traffic to their stores. In the UK, they wouldn't do that...heck, why would they even provide free parking? Instead, there would be a charge for everything, and it wouldn't be cheap (because nothing is). The same with scoring an off street parking spot, you are probably going to pay a lot for that already...
In the UK, they wouldn't do that...heck, why would they even provide free parking?
Nearly all out of town stores and supermarkets in the UK provide free parking.
Nearly all out of town stores and supermarkets in the UK provide free parking.
Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots.
Not really. You plug your electric car in at home overnight, you start every day on 100%. You only need to re-charge at the mall or somewhere if you are driving beyond your car's range. That happens sometimes but not enough to need half a car park of chargers. Also, range will improve a lot in the next few years as battery prices/weights drop.
Cities where people don't have off-street parking at night (e.g. London) are a bit of an issue though. I suspect that can be solved though.
Not really. You plug your electric car in at home overnight, you start every day on 100%. You only need to re-charge at the mall or somewhere if you are driving beyond your car's range. That happens sometimes but not enough to need half a car park of chargers. Also, range will improve a lot in the next few years as battery prices/weights drop.
Cities where people don't have off-street parking at night (e.g. London) are a bit of an issue though. I suspect that can be solved though.
erm How? the density of car owners in London isn't that high as well
The car has no future in high density cities like London anyway. London needs its roads for buses and taxis, maybe bicycle infrastructure, not car commuters.
Are there cities where the majority of the people has off-street parking at night? I would be surprised if that were the case, at least here in Germany.
Planning regulations in the UK mandate minimum parking with a few exceptions so most new development has spaces. Visit anywhere built in the fifties though, when car use was lower and you find cars parked all over the place.
Smaller American cities, maybe?
And governments wont want to lose the tax revenue that's going to have to be replaced.
I am sure that government will want to be able to track these smart cars and trucks you know "think of the children" and possibly to disable them to reduce the risk of another Truck based suicide attack as happened in France
I am sure that government will want to be able to track these smart cars and trucks you know "think of the children" and possibly to disable them to reduce the risk of another Truck based suicide attack as happened in France
> Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots. Street parking will need the same as will office and residential parking lots.
I think self-driving taxis will have replaced car ownership for most people by then. Parking lots will probably shrink or disappear entirely.
I think self-driving taxis will have replaced car ownership for most people by then. Parking lots will probably shrink or disappear entirely.
The cars don't quite seem 'there' yet.
Tesla is the leader here, but I've heard many horror stories about owners' cars needing minor repairs being unusable for months due to parts availibity [1]. They seem also to have the best charging network as the rest of the industry was split between CHAdeMO and CCS.
Nissan got the jump in America with the Leafs and CHAdeMO, but they don't have the range to be the only vehicle for most people.
I learned about the Bolt EV and went to the dealer, money in hand, to trade in my SUV for one, until I saw it up close and drove it. It's just not quite there yet. The car is $37,000 and doesn't have power seats. I'm not spoiled in that I can't use a manual seat, but for long distance driving, position is important and the seat only had the typical manual seat adjustments. No tilt, no height adjustments. The amount of space in the rear is quite small, and there is no frunk.
Charging and cost of charging was another problem. There are not quite enough CCS chargers in my area yet. And public chargers are bit pricey. The ones I found were $0.30+ per kwh. That price exceeds the cost of fueling a newer gasoline car that cost half as much. 3.5mi per KWh works out to about $0.086/mile. A car that gets 40mpg at $2.50/gal costs $0.063 per mile in fuel.
The Model 3 may change some of this, and of course, home charging is cheaper. But the numbers just didn't quite add up for me. I'm looking at a Volt now. The plug in range can handle about 60% of my driving, and I have an efficient gas engine that is cheaper to run on long trips than the equivalent electric cost. There is plenty of trunk space and I don't have to wait an hour for it to charge for every 3 hours of driving.
Not to mention that the Bolt EV is just ugly.
[1] https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&...
Tesla is the leader here, but I've heard many horror stories about owners' cars needing minor repairs being unusable for months due to parts availibity [1]. They seem also to have the best charging network as the rest of the industry was split between CHAdeMO and CCS.
Nissan got the jump in America with the Leafs and CHAdeMO, but they don't have the range to be the only vehicle for most people.
I learned about the Bolt EV and went to the dealer, money in hand, to trade in my SUV for one, until I saw it up close and drove it. It's just not quite there yet. The car is $37,000 and doesn't have power seats. I'm not spoiled in that I can't use a manual seat, but for long distance driving, position is important and the seat only had the typical manual seat adjustments. No tilt, no height adjustments. The amount of space in the rear is quite small, and there is no frunk.
Charging and cost of charging was another problem. There are not quite enough CCS chargers in my area yet. And public chargers are bit pricey. The ones I found were $0.30+ per kwh. That price exceeds the cost of fueling a newer gasoline car that cost half as much. 3.5mi per KWh works out to about $0.086/mile. A car that gets 40mpg at $2.50/gal costs $0.063 per mile in fuel.
The Model 3 may change some of this, and of course, home charging is cheaper. But the numbers just didn't quite add up for me. I'm looking at a Volt now. The plug in range can handle about 60% of my driving, and I have an efficient gas engine that is cheaper to run on long trips than the equivalent electric cost. There is plenty of trunk space and I don't have to wait an hour for it to charge for every 3 hours of driving.
Not to mention that the Bolt EV is just ugly.
[1] https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&...
The EV market is increasing. First half of 2016 was 64,736 and first half of 2017 was 90,302 [1]. That's about 1% of the market. That there are Many Models tells you car companies think there are More Buyers rather than Few Buyers.
I drive a 2013 Leaf so I know about range anxiety. My next car will be an S.
My only complaint about the Leaf is that if I put $6000 worth of new batter I don't get 2018 technology. It doesn't get better. I get the exact same battery.
[1] https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-sta...
I drive a 2013 Leaf so I know about range anxiety. My next car will be an S.
My only complaint about the Leaf is that if I put $6000 worth of new batter I don't get 2018 technology. It doesn't get better. I get the exact same battery.
[1] https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-sta...
I wonder if we will see third party battery replacement services offering better performance, it seems there could be a commercial opportunity there.
I think the answer for the Leaf is no. Nissan doesn't have an incentive to allow this. It is, I'll grant you, more difficult than replacing a 12V. There are heat issues and apparently charger compatibility issues.
However, Nissan is in the business of selling cars just as Apple is in the business of selling computers. Repairing and improving old cars+computers is an expense and competes with sales of new cars+computers.
In principle, it could happen. In practice, it won't. I'll probably get the batter replaced and keep the car. But I wouldn't buy/recommend a Leaf at this point as there are better alternatives available.
A similar issue is right to repair.
However, Nissan is in the business of selling cars just as Apple is in the business of selling computers. Repairing and improving old cars+computers is an expense and competes with sales of new cars+computers.
In principle, it could happen. In practice, it won't. I'll probably get the batter replaced and keep the car. But I wouldn't buy/recommend a Leaf at this point as there are better alternatives available.
A similar issue is right to repair.
Developing a new car model is not done in a few months, they take years. So it's understandable that car companies start to plan the future now.
They also don't know if the demand will follow an S-curve and when. Disruptive changes are difficult to predict (probably predictions 11-12 years ago said Nokia would still dominate mobile phone market in 2017 :D)
The demand will grow as battery prices go down, and range of electric cars increases. When an electric car has the same price and range than a petrol car (and probably before, as maintenance costs for an electric car are lower), there will be no rational reason to buy a combustion car. It's only a matter of time
They also don't know if the demand will follow an S-curve and when. Disruptive changes are difficult to predict (probably predictions 11-12 years ago said Nokia would still dominate mobile phone market in 2017 :D)
The demand will grow as battery prices go down, and range of electric cars increases. When an electric car has the same price and range than a petrol car (and probably before, as maintenance costs for an electric car are lower), there will be no rational reason to buy a combustion car. It's only a matter of time
ICE will be around for a long time in the US market. If I had to put a number on it, probably 30 years. This article is about demand, but even with robust demand there's massive infrastructural inertia behind ICE. Tens of thousands of trained mechanics. Oil and gas pipelines and tankers. A national network of gas stations with better coverage than any cell network.
About half of car sales are used vehicles - how long until there's a large market of used EVs? Or even reliable statistics on their depreciation?
People don't demand a certain type of propulsion technology, they demand reliable and cheap transportation. Sure, rich technophiles and environmentalists will be willing to pay a premium for a Tesla or a Leaf, but my guess is that market is close to saturated. Once Teslas are sustainably priced and their luster has worn a bit, they'll probably be most comparable to Cadillacs. Eye-catching styling and powerful, but lacking in the attention to detail that goes into German luxury cars.
About half of car sales are used vehicles - how long until there's a large market of used EVs? Or even reliable statistics on their depreciation?
People don't demand a certain type of propulsion technology, they demand reliable and cheap transportation. Sure, rich technophiles and environmentalists will be willing to pay a premium for a Tesla or a Leaf, but my guess is that market is close to saturated. Once Teslas are sustainably priced and their luster has worn a bit, they'll probably be most comparable to Cadillacs. Eye-catching styling and powerful, but lacking in the attention to detail that goes into German luxury cars.
Electric cars is not the differentiator. The attraction is self driving, and Tesla knows this and so they market that. That is really how they garnered the clout and leading the market.
A friend of mine just got a Tesla Model X. He also owns exotic cars and races cares. He is a true car guy and gear head.
If people like him are starting to switch to electric so will everyone else.
If people like him are starting to switch to electric so will everyone else.
Obviously, because the vast majority of people are gear heads who own and race exotic cars.
I've been itching to buy an electric car, but my current hybrid is still fine and gets ~45mpg. Additionally, the heavy incentives and constant model improvements have caused resale values to continuously plummet [1], so there's no rush for me to buy. I can get a lot more electric car for a lot less money just by waiting a bit.
[1] A cursory craigslist search lists Nissan Leafs for $5.5k @26k miles, and 2014 BMW i3s ~$13k @45k miles. Electric cars seem to hold their values very poorly.
[1] A cursory craigslist search lists Nissan Leafs for $5.5k @26k miles, and 2014 BMW i3s ~$13k @45k miles. Electric cars seem to hold their values very poorly.
You, as the first owner, get to keep the incentive, so why does it matter if it reduces the resale value?
Well, reduced resale values increase the total cost of ownership, so it matters to anyone looking to spend less by going electric. A Nissan leaf fairs particularly poorly, especially compared to its ICE counterpart, the Versa [1]. The resale values are plummeting more than the incentives given.
It also matters to anyone looking at buying a used electric car (Me), since the rapid depreciation makes me hesitant to jump in, as patience can get me more features for the same price (range etc), or save me a lot of money.
[1] https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-t... vs https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-...
It also matters to anyone looking at buying a used electric car (Me), since the rapid depreciation makes me hesitant to jump in, as patience can get me more features for the same price (range etc), or save me a lot of money.
[1] https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-t... vs https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-...
For me, the big barriers are cost and body style. (We just replaced a pickup truck with a luxury ICE pickup). I get 14 MPG on a 10 mile, 60 minute bay area commute (it does better driving up a mountain, FWIW).
Clearly, if Ford’s electric F-150 existed for ~$60k and could make occasional long distance trips (like Teslas) I would have bought one instead.
The only Tesla big enough to start to make sense for us is the model X, and those cost twice what we paid.
Clearly, if Ford’s electric F-150 existed for ~$60k and could make occasional long distance trips (like Teslas) I would have bought one instead.
The only Tesla big enough to start to make sense for us is the model X, and those cost twice what we paid.
Would it be possible to have a manual transmission electric car? I’ve been thinking about getting a new car with a stick because I think it would be fun (and I need a new car), but if electric cars are right around the corner maybe I should wait for those?
How much of this can be explained by regulations by CA and other states that require (or strongly incentivize) manufacturers to have electric models?
I recall reading that Fiat loses $10k in every electric Fiat they sell, but that they do so to appease CA regulators.
I recall reading that Fiat loses $10k in every electric Fiat they sell, but that they do so to appease CA regulators.
Some SoCal dealers have offered Fiat 500e electrics on lease for $99/month inclusive (dealer/mfr keeps the incentives).
Curious why this comment would be downvoted — if you have a response, or evidence in support/against what I mentioned, feel free to share. We don't downvote whenever we disagree; this is used to indicate that someone is not productively adding to the conversation.
Personally, I would love an electric car but they all seem to be too expensive (I'm in Europe).
I bought a 2005 Opel Corsa that I use to drive ~3000km/mo. and it runs great. Paid 3,500 for it.
I bought a 2005 Opel Corsa that I use to drive ~3000km/mo. and it runs great. Paid 3,500 for it.
They are expensive because of the batteries, but battery price per kWh is dropping in a moores-law kind of way. Give it a few more years and there wont be any compelling reason to buy a dinosaur juice car.
I suppose the cheap second hand car market might take a bit longer.
Based on an estimate from another Bloomberg article (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-bu...), the price will halve by 2025. That's 7 years, not quite Moore territory, and we're still talking about mid range or more expensive cars. I'd imagine a $3500 second hand electric car to be 2030+ territory, not quite "a few more years" :)
Currently I could import a crashed Leaf from US auction to my homecountry in Europe and have it fixed and registered for a total of about 8000€, many people do just that. I imagine this will fall to about 6000€ for the first year Leaf imports in the coming couple of year or two.
Its not price per KWh its the slow increase in energy density that's the real stumbling block.
Yeah, but then after the first year if you let the battery get down to 40% it shuts off. Unless you get the manufacturer's firmware update which limits you to 55MPH.
/sarcasm
/sarcasm
I used to drive from Fort Worth to San Antonio once a month, 300 miles. I can do that on a single full tank of gas. I cannot do that on a single charge and recharging takes forever. The technology simply isn’t comparable.
Perhaps this explains why traditional auto manufacturers seem to be constantly announcing exciting electric models that are still 3 to 5 years away - they can appear to be staying in the game without doing too much.