Wanted to add a preface: Thank you for your time on this article, I appreciate your perspective and experience, hoping you can help refine and reign in my bull case.
Where do you expect NVDA's forward and current eps to land? What revenue drop off are you expecting in late 2025/2026. Part of my bull case for NVDA, continuing, is it's very reasonable multiple on insane revenue. An leveling off can be expected, but I still feel bullish on it hitting $200+ (5 Trillion market cap? on ~195B revenue for Fiscal year 2026 (calendar 2025) at 33 EPS) based on this years revenue according to their guidance and the guidance of the hyperscalers spending. Finding a sell point is a whole different matter to being actively short. I can see the case to take some profits, hard for me to go short, especially in an inflationary environment (tariffs, electric energy, bullying for lower US interest rates).
The scale of production of Grace Hopper and Blackwell amaze me, 800k units of Blackwell coming out this quarter, is there even production room for AMD to get their chips made? (Looking at the new chip factories in Arizona)
R1 might be nice for reducing llm inferencing costs, unsure about the local llama one's accuracy (couldnt get it to correctly spit out the NFL teams and their associated conferences, kept mixing NFL with Euro Football) but I still want to train YOLO vision models on faster chips like A100's vs T4 (4-5x multiples in speed for me).
Lastly, if the Robot/Autonomous vehicle ML wave hits within the next year, (First drones and cars -> factories -> humanoids) I think this compute demand can sustain NVDA compute demand.
The real mystery is how we power all this within 2 years...
* This is not financial advice and some of my numbers might be a little off, still refining my model and verifying sources and numbers
I don’t know about you but exercise is one of my most enjoyable parts of my day. Yoga, walking, biking, dancing, swimming are all really enjoyable. Don’t push yourself hard, just go through the motions.
What does an individual humans intelligence look like without the wisdom of institutions like family, extended family and community, schools, academys and conservatories, the public sphere, and their interpretations of the world.
I know a lot of my ability to organize the world and characterize objects comes from the organizational structures refined and propagated by these institutions
Its hard to enlighten your way into happiness when you have an infection. I think alot of “happiness” is based in health, physical, emotional, and the health of those you interact with. Atleast those are somewhat quantifiable ways to avoid needless suffering.
I dont think that is true, society can create value from trade and good organization providing more resources to everyone for collectively the same amount of work.
Apple is getting into health care and thats where I see the growth and value generation over the next decade. I love apple right now, they are worth their premium and Im decking out my parents and grandparents in watches, phones, and computers so that They can stay connected, clear, and access all these new health focused features in their older age. Alot of the work of caretakers is being automated by apple’s platform and people will be able to stay independent longer because of it.
Do people actually want to maintain a home or is it an idealism of financial security. Homes and handy work are getting very expensive. Are there unfair externalities for people to try and maintain homes far from cities? Especially the ones that sit unused most of the year.
Where do you expect NVDA's forward and current eps to land? What revenue drop off are you expecting in late 2025/2026. Part of my bull case for NVDA, continuing, is it's very reasonable multiple on insane revenue. An leveling off can be expected, but I still feel bullish on it hitting $200+ (5 Trillion market cap? on ~195B revenue for Fiscal year 2026 (calendar 2025) at 33 EPS) based on this years revenue according to their guidance and the guidance of the hyperscalers spending. Finding a sell point is a whole different matter to being actively short. I can see the case to take some profits, hard for me to go short, especially in an inflationary environment (tariffs, electric energy, bullying for lower US interest rates).
The scale of production of Grace Hopper and Blackwell amaze me, 800k units of Blackwell coming out this quarter, is there even production room for AMD to get their chips made? (Looking at the new chip factories in Arizona)
R1 might be nice for reducing llm inferencing costs, unsure about the local llama one's accuracy (couldnt get it to correctly spit out the NFL teams and their associated conferences, kept mixing NFL with Euro Football) but I still want to train YOLO vision models on faster chips like A100's vs T4 (4-5x multiples in speed for me).
Lastly, if the Robot/Autonomous vehicle ML wave hits within the next year, (First drones and cars -> factories -> humanoids) I think this compute demand can sustain NVDA compute demand.
The real mystery is how we power all this within 2 years...
* This is not financial advice and some of my numbers might be a little off, still refining my model and verifying sources and numbers