North Korea declares war on South Korea - full declaration(live.reuters.com)
live.reuters.com
North Korea declares war on South Korea - full declaration
http://live.reuters.com/Event/North_Korea/70001409
15 comments
> 2) North Korea will not engage in a mainland war before receiving authorization or warning China, at which point Chinese tourists will be recalled from Seoul and Jeju. China will not allow North Korea to threaten the affluent Chinese tourists that frequent those area, and should North Korea attempt to do so it will be facing an invasion from the Chinese border, and most likely Russian border.
Are you Chinese? The PRC government is not very paternalistic on any tourists abroad, who are basically on their own; China is not going to sacrifice any intelligence advantages to protect a few tourists (and neither would the US).
The DPRK is also not close enough to the PRC to ask for permission, though I'm sure they know what the PRC desires in terms of this.
Are you Chinese? The PRC government is not very paternalistic on any tourists abroad, who are basically on their own; China is not going to sacrifice any intelligence advantages to protect a few tourists (and neither would the US).
The DPRK is also not close enough to the PRC to ask for permission, though I'm sure they know what the PRC desires in terms of this.
1) Any government is paternalistic about their citizens abroad, especially one's with money/connections/influence.
And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government. You believe that the US government would say "Oh yeah, well, they just killed many of our citizens but lets wait to attack because..." Because what? Preserve what intelligence?
You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government. You believe that the US government would say "Oh yeah, well, they just killed many of our citizens but lets wait to attack because..." Because what? Preserve what intelligence?
You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
> And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government.
It wouldn't be what we are thinking. Generally, just having the country invaded is enough for us to be involved, actually.
> You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
I live in Beijing and pay attention. I don't think you are really informed very well; if the DPRK bothered to warn China, it would just give them some extra time to get some troops from Liaoning across the Yalu to stop their plans cold. Their first thought wouldn't be: let's save our tourists!
It wouldn't be what we are thinking. Generally, just having the country invaded is enough for us to be involved, actually.
> You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
I live in Beijing and pay attention. I don't think you are really informed very well; if the DPRK bothered to warn China, it would just give them some extra time to get some troops from Liaoning across the Yalu to stop their plans cold. Their first thought wouldn't be: let's save our tourists!
I never said that would be their first thought. It is simply another consideration and part of the reason that China would not tolerate an escalation into a real war with South Korea.
The only way for North Korea to "get away" with crossing the DMZ is if it, at the very least, gives China advanced warning of their actions to placate some of these concerns. Yes, protecting rich Chinese citizens in South Korea is not the only concern, but it is any important one.
Besides that, I never said the warning would come from official diplomatic channels within the DPRK. I just said "warning". What this could mean is a warning from asset China has within the government and country. And believe me, they have plenty of assets within the DPRK government that will tip them off.
I'm not even sure what your argument here is: That China wouldn't care? That they would care but they wouldn't care about their overseas citizens? That they have no oversight or control or assets in North Korea?
The only way for North Korea to "get away" with crossing the DMZ is if it, at the very least, gives China advanced warning of their actions to placate some of these concerns. Yes, protecting rich Chinese citizens in South Korea is not the only concern, but it is any important one.
Besides that, I never said the warning would come from official diplomatic channels within the DPRK. I just said "warning". What this could mean is a warning from asset China has within the government and country. And believe me, they have plenty of assets within the DPRK government that will tip them off.
I'm not even sure what your argument here is: That China wouldn't care? That they would care but they wouldn't care about their overseas citizens? That they have no oversight or control or assets in North Korea?
You have a great deal of faith in China's ability to control the DPRK. Given that China is now part of the international community behind the latest sanctions (which this action is at least partly a response to), why do you think the DPRK leadership will require Beijing's approval for their actions?
Have you visited the North? When I was there last year the Juche philosophy was as much a part of everyone as the casual references to the Great Leader being the Sun of the World; the attitude amongst the people I spoke to was that China was, whilst a friendly neighbour, not necessary to the wellbeing of the DPRK (no comment on how true that actually is - just on what I gathered of people's attitudes).
As it is, I do agree this is just more sabre-rattling and it is to be taken as seriously as all the previous sabre-rattling. The real announcement of continuing the war will be troop movements and the like, which will be very easily seen in advance.
Have you visited the North? When I was there last year the Juche philosophy was as much a part of everyone as the casual references to the Great Leader being the Sun of the World; the attitude amongst the people I spoke to was that China was, whilst a friendly neighbour, not necessary to the wellbeing of the DPRK (no comment on how true that actually is - just on what I gathered of people's attitudes).
As it is, I do agree this is just more sabre-rattling and it is to be taken as seriously as all the previous sabre-rattling. The real announcement of continuing the war will be troop movements and the like, which will be very easily seen in advance.
China has a huge number of affluent tourists in Seoul and Jeju island. If NK crosses the DMZ, it will put those tourists at risk - And if North Korea kills any Chinese tourists, you can rest assured China will breaze into the country through the undefended Northern border, dismantle NK's military, and select a new puppet regime from within the government.
North Korea knows this, so will not act without China's blessing or at least giving China time to recall Chinese citizens from Seoul. Otherwise, North Korea has to fight a war with the Chinese in the North and NATO/South Korea in the South. This is an obvious recipe for swift and utter defeat.
The alternate scenario is that China uses it's stooges in the NK government and military to stage a coup d'etat.
Doesn't really matter what the North Korean people think, they will believe whatever nonsense their government feeds them, and there is no lack of Il-Sung descendants to pick from to be the figurehead of whatever puppet regime they choose to back.
You should probably know that Kim Jong Un is entirely a figure head and all decisions are made by a faction within his government led by his uncle-in-law Chang. Not even the NK government itself is unified behind Kim Jong Un/Chang, and its likely that there will be plenty of factions happy to take the job of China's lapdog as soon as they decide NK is threatening rich Chinese citizens.
North Korea knows this, so will not act without China's blessing or at least giving China time to recall Chinese citizens from Seoul. Otherwise, North Korea has to fight a war with the Chinese in the North and NATO/South Korea in the South. This is an obvious recipe for swift and utter defeat.
The alternate scenario is that China uses it's stooges in the NK government and military to stage a coup d'etat.
Doesn't really matter what the North Korean people think, they will believe whatever nonsense their government feeds them, and there is no lack of Il-Sung descendants to pick from to be the figurehead of whatever puppet regime they choose to back.
You should probably know that Kim Jong Un is entirely a figure head and all decisions are made by a faction within his government led by his uncle-in-law Chang. Not even the NK government itself is unified behind Kim Jong Un/Chang, and its likely that there will be plenty of factions happy to take the job of China's lapdog as soon as they decide NK is threatening rich Chinese citizens.
Is China really so big on tourists? I must say I find it odd that this comes across so strongly. Nothing about upsetting the political and military balance in the region, no inherent fear of what happens when US troops start running around the DPRK literally on the Chinese border. It's all about the the tourists.
Of course there are larger geopolitical issues at play... Economically, China has no reason to defend the DPRK and every reason to maintain trade relations with South Korea and the US.
And, China obviously does not want the US to have even more of a foothold, and they obviously do not want the burden of absorbing North Korea into China... Which is why I said the end-game for Chinese interference would be installation of a new puppet regime.
But yes, rich tourists are very very important. There is no better rallying cry for interference than affluent citizens being killed. Do you honestly think that the Chinese government would be able to brush off the hundreds, if not thousands of Chinese casualties in Korea?
And, China obviously does not want the US to have even more of a foothold, and they obviously do not want the burden of absorbing North Korea into China... Which is why I said the end-game for Chinese interference would be installation of a new puppet regime.
But yes, rich tourists are very very important. There is no better rallying cry for interference than affluent citizens being killed. Do you honestly think that the Chinese government would be able to brush off the hundreds, if not thousands of Chinese casualties in Korea?
Every rational country has a big problem with their citizens getting murdered.
Killing just 1,000 Chinese in Seoul would be enough reason for China to permanently end North Korea's current regime.
Killing just 1,000 Chinese in Seoul would be enough reason for China to permanently end North Korea's current regime.
>>Is China really so big on tourists?
I doubt that too. but as he mentioned >>rich Chinese citizens. this might be a catch because rich and influential people wield more clout in communist China than in pure capitalist nations like USA.
Given that they don't have real nukes or ways to deliver them the real worry is what happens when NK is run down and then China enters the stage, says NK was my cousin - I will take over of the family and house.
I doubt that too. but as he mentioned >>rich Chinese citizens. this might be a catch because rich and influential people wield more clout in communist China than in pure capitalist nations like USA.
Given that they don't have real nukes or ways to deliver them the real worry is what happens when NK is run down and then China enters the stage, says NK was my cousin - I will take over of the family and house.
Yes, the qualifier was important. As I stated elsewhere, with affluence comes influence. If we were talking about factory labourers, China would obviously care much less about their fate. When you are talking about people that make up the upper echelons of government and industry - the people in control of the decision making apparatus - their fate becomes much more important.
>>why do you think the DPRK leadership will require Beijing's approval for their actions?
Well, food is one reason. China, NK being almost cut-off from most of world, practically feeds NK and some other nations keep sending ration in aid from time to time.
>>no comment on how true that actually is
China was one support that helped North Korean Kim family rule NK for so long and strategically keep the nation cut-off from rest of the world, effectively pushing it into a modern stone-age. Now, it's up to everyone to debate what was China's ulterior motive behind this. Maybe they wanted a loose cannon or a time bomb in the neighbourhood under their (virtual) control. But now, it seems the pumpkin prince has actually lost it and if China is true in its demonstration and expression that NK really doesn't listen to it anymore, it is a matter of grave concern.
You were there. Can you comment the lifestyle and standard of living of common people, middle class(if there's one) and the ruling elite(i.e. military elite)? Or in what conditions the majority of people live? I see one reason to keep the nation cut off from the world is that the ruling elite (other than the Kims) can retain their status and aristocrat like clout in the country while their kids studies overseas(current Kim probably studied in Switzerland/Europe) and prospers.
Well, food is one reason. China, NK being almost cut-off from most of world, practically feeds NK and some other nations keep sending ration in aid from time to time.
>>no comment on how true that actually is
China was one support that helped North Korean Kim family rule NK for so long and strategically keep the nation cut-off from rest of the world, effectively pushing it into a modern stone-age. Now, it's up to everyone to debate what was China's ulterior motive behind this. Maybe they wanted a loose cannon or a time bomb in the neighbourhood under their (virtual) control. But now, it seems the pumpkin prince has actually lost it and if China is true in its demonstration and expression that NK really doesn't listen to it anymore, it is a matter of grave concern.
You were there. Can you comment the lifestyle and standard of living of common people, middle class(if there's one) and the ruling elite(i.e. military elite)? Or in what conditions the majority of people live? I see one reason to keep the nation cut off from the world is that the ruling elite (other than the Kims) can retain their status and aristocrat like clout in the country while their kids studies overseas(current Kim probably studied in Switzerland/Europe) and prospers.
"middle class(if there's one)"
Whilst Western definitions of middle-class tend to involve our economy in some way, the best I could manage would be those living in the cities and towns. They get (not brilliantly reliable) electricity, access to healthcare, housing that varied from buildings genuinely I thought were abandoned up to blocks of flats that weren't in too horrific shape. In the cities there was some (overcrowded and often dark) public transport. Towns relied on bicycles and lots of walking.
The majority of people were those living in villages. I passed these over and over again on the roads (by which I mean, I could see them from the road - they were usually NOT on the road network themselves, presumably by design). Buildings were of brick or other such material. Vehicles extremely rare. Oxen extremely rare (and clearly prized as ploughing tools). Three-person ploughing teams depressing common (looked like a shovel and two ropes tied to the head - one person jams it into the field, everyone lifts it and turns the earth, everyone takes one step forwards and repeats, over and over and over again). I didn't see much evidence of electricity in these villages. They're effectively cut off; there's no way for Kim Citizen to decide to wander over to the next village. Rivers used for washing clothes. People walking a long, long way to the fields they were working. The number of people engaged in working the land was enormous. For someone from the West used to the idea that a very small percentage of the population need be engaged in actually growing the food, it's a shock to see people in the 21st century farming effectively by hand. The evidence of the famine and also massive deforestation is clear if you look. Every scrap of land that someone can can reach and might support crops is being farmed. There are vast, vast numbers of saplings with little white stone circles around them (presumably to mark it). In the last decade, they were clearly in a very bad way for solid fuel.
I agree that keeping the population in the dark is a very effective means of control. The locals I met were very keen to flick through what magazines etc I'd brought with me and wanted to know simple things about my life.
There was a famine before, and it didn't end the regime. There is a persistent myth that if a people gets hungry enough, they have a revolution, but it didn't happen in China and it didn't happen in the DPRK. I would be hesitant to think that simply cutting off the food would be so effective in quickly changing the DPRK foreign policy.
Whilst Western definitions of middle-class tend to involve our economy in some way, the best I could manage would be those living in the cities and towns. They get (not brilliantly reliable) electricity, access to healthcare, housing that varied from buildings genuinely I thought were abandoned up to blocks of flats that weren't in too horrific shape. In the cities there was some (overcrowded and often dark) public transport. Towns relied on bicycles and lots of walking.
The majority of people were those living in villages. I passed these over and over again on the roads (by which I mean, I could see them from the road - they were usually NOT on the road network themselves, presumably by design). Buildings were of brick or other such material. Vehicles extremely rare. Oxen extremely rare (and clearly prized as ploughing tools). Three-person ploughing teams depressing common (looked like a shovel and two ropes tied to the head - one person jams it into the field, everyone lifts it and turns the earth, everyone takes one step forwards and repeats, over and over and over again). I didn't see much evidence of electricity in these villages. They're effectively cut off; there's no way for Kim Citizen to decide to wander over to the next village. Rivers used for washing clothes. People walking a long, long way to the fields they were working. The number of people engaged in working the land was enormous. For someone from the West used to the idea that a very small percentage of the population need be engaged in actually growing the food, it's a shock to see people in the 21st century farming effectively by hand. The evidence of the famine and also massive deforestation is clear if you look. Every scrap of land that someone can can reach and might support crops is being farmed. There are vast, vast numbers of saplings with little white stone circles around them (presumably to mark it). In the last decade, they were clearly in a very bad way for solid fuel.
I agree that keeping the population in the dark is a very effective means of control. The locals I met were very keen to flick through what magazines etc I'd brought with me and wanted to know simple things about my life.
There was a famine before, and it didn't end the regime. There is a persistent myth that if a people gets hungry enough, they have a revolution, but it didn't happen in China and it didn't happen in the DPRK. I would be hesitant to think that simply cutting off the food would be so effective in quickly changing the DPRK foreign policy.
Oh dear. Everywhere I read the horror stories and every person who has been there says the same. The people their have actually no choice. That's the reason they won't even have their Korean spring. In comparison Africa and Arab is luxury then.
I guess the big emancipators ought to rather emancipate them first!
I guess the big emancipators ought to rather emancipate them first!
It's done in a number of small ways. I passed through military checkpoints every time I left a town, and every time I arrived at one. In one, we had a police escort to the hotel (although, to be honest, I suspect the policeman just really wanted to turn on his siren and ride in front clearing the pedestrians off the road - exciting day for him). If you don't have a mandated reason to visit another town (or even leave your own town), you aren't doing it. There will be no underground network of revolutionaries without the ability to find each other or communicate.
Food; food was allocated (in the towns, at least - I don't know about villages) by your official food distribution centre, which often seemed to be the ground floor of the building you were living on. You got a few days in advance at a time. If you ever decided to try something (be it make a run for the border or have a revolution), you'd have three days' worth of food to make it work. Speaking of running for the (north) border, you'd better be able to make it on foot within a few days. You'll have to stay clear of the roads (what roads there are) so it'll be yomping over fields.
The media is the state media. There are a number of smuggled radios etc on the country. It's very hard to get figures on this; they seem to be clustered towards the north border where they drift in from China, and in the cities. The government control of the airwaves is not absolute, but they do engage in jamming and so forth.
It is as people say. The country is to a large extent a prison camp. Some of it is an "open" prison, some of it is working three generations of a family to death, sentencing children alongside their grandparents because they upset someone with power (or had something the powerful person wanted - many Japanese of Korean origin who foolishly moved there found themselves stripped of all the wealth they brought with them and reduced to poverty or simply dispatched to a labour camp) or maybe just said the wrong thing (turning each other in does not seem to be uncommon).
A DPRK spring in the style of the Arab spring is not, in my opinion, on the cards.
Food; food was allocated (in the towns, at least - I don't know about villages) by your official food distribution centre, which often seemed to be the ground floor of the building you were living on. You got a few days in advance at a time. If you ever decided to try something (be it make a run for the border or have a revolution), you'd have three days' worth of food to make it work. Speaking of running for the (north) border, you'd better be able to make it on foot within a few days. You'll have to stay clear of the roads (what roads there are) so it'll be yomping over fields.
The media is the state media. There are a number of smuggled radios etc on the country. It's very hard to get figures on this; they seem to be clustered towards the north border where they drift in from China, and in the cities. The government control of the airwaves is not absolute, but they do engage in jamming and so forth.
It is as people say. The country is to a large extent a prison camp. Some of it is an "open" prison, some of it is working three generations of a family to death, sentencing children alongside their grandparents because they upset someone with power (or had something the powerful person wanted - many Japanese of Korean origin who foolishly moved there found themselves stripped of all the wealth they brought with them and reduced to poverty or simply dispatched to a labour camp) or maybe just said the wrong thing (turning each other in does not seem to be uncommon).
A DPRK spring in the style of the Arab spring is not, in my opinion, on the cards.
> Well, food is one reason. China, NK being almost cut-off from most of world, practically feeds NK and some other nations keep sending ration in aid from time to time.
Even the DPRK has enough food reserves to last a few weeks, which is how long the war would last before they were destroyed from one side or the other.
> China was one support that helped North Korean Kim family rule NK for so long and strategically keep the nation cut-off from rest of the world, effectively pushing it into a modern stone-age.
That was all set by Mao and Stalin, who weren't exactly the most well meaning cookies in the jar. Recently the relationship between the PRC and DPRK has been less happy.
Even the DPRK has enough food reserves to last a few weeks, which is how long the war would last before they were destroyed from one side or the other.
> China was one support that helped North Korean Kim family rule NK for so long and strategically keep the nation cut-off from rest of the world, effectively pushing it into a modern stone-age.
That was all set by Mao and Stalin, who weren't exactly the most well meaning cookies in the jar. Recently the relationship between the PRC and DPRK has been less happy.
It's interesting how every other story on HN's frontpage right now seems to dwarf in relevance, compared to this. The full weight of a declaration of war simply stated like this stopped me in my tracks. And coming from a completely unpredictable and strongly armed regime, it's the stuff of legend, and a sorry situation that the world has to see it become real.
I hope South Korea has a plan to minimize civilian casualties, if it comes to that, and I wish the people didn't have to go through this; not the tension, much less actual damage. South Korea is a modern country full of technology, in those ways a peer to the US and other first world countries. Which makes it even easier to put yourself in the south koreans' shoes. Gives you some perspective.
I hope South Korea has a plan to minimize civilian casualties, if it comes to that, and I wish the people didn't have to go through this; not the tension, much less actual damage. South Korea is a modern country full of technology, in those ways a peer to the US and other first world countries. Which makes it even easier to put yourself in the south koreans' shoes. Gives you some perspective.
Nobody is taking this seriously in the press. The DPRK says crap like this all the time, its hard to tell if they are serious this time; it seems like they probably aren't. Now that could change as we get more information, but for now...its just the same-old-same-old. But us expats who live relatively near the DPRK (in the PRC or ROK) will always pay attention to stuff like this.
Well, if it is as you say, in a way it worries me more. Maybe they have declared all-out war in these terms before, I wouldn't know. In any case, if it isn't this time, for how long more? If nobody takes them seriously, the defenses will be lowered when they finally strike. I have little doubt NK is a country which could put all to risk because of it's dictator's crazy whims. It's a high risk the world is taking by dismissing it.
Everyone takes them seriously, just no one pays attention to what they say anymore, which is basically not useful information. We can only go by what they actually do.
The unfunny thing about this is that North Korea is virtually declaring war, and South Korea and its allies have to ignore it because of very valid threats.
In any open conflict, thousands of South Koreans in Seoul would die within hours because of artillery on the border. Any war activity in North Korea, together with weaker border enforcement would send hundreds of thousands of Fugitives north and south.
In a lot of ways, Kim can afford the provocation more than every one else can afford to take the bluff.
In any open conflict, thousands of South Koreans in Seoul would die within hours because of artillery on the border. Any war activity in North Korea, together with weaker border enforcement would send hundreds of thousands of Fugitives north and south.
In a lot of ways, Kim can afford the provocation more than every one else can afford to take the bluff.
Right. This is one of the realities a lot of people unfamiliar with the geography of Korea fail to understand. The North has just a ton of rockets pointed at, and within range of, Seoul.
The North declares war and we are all forced to treat it as a joke because taking it seriously and actually letting the hot war start would be devastating.
This is China's mess. China really needs to step in here and do something. It's fence-sat with the North for too long. It has understandable concerns about North Korean refugees flooding across its borders, but its tolerance of bad behavior and resistance to taking stronger action to influence it's unruly charge is leading to it losing face at best, and at worse being seen as contributing to a needless conflict with great loss of life should it occur.
The North declares war and we are all forced to treat it as a joke because taking it seriously and actually letting the hot war start would be devastating.
This is China's mess. China really needs to step in here and do something. It's fence-sat with the North for too long. It has understandable concerns about North Korean refugees flooding across its borders, but its tolerance of bad behavior and resistance to taking stronger action to influence it's unruly charge is leading to it losing face at best, and at worse being seen as contributing to a needless conflict with great loss of life should it occur.
What can China do? Damned if they do and damned if they don't. China doesn't want war, but they don't want change either. They don't want DPRK to implode, they like the status quo as it is. They don't want refugees flooding in to Liaoning, and they don't want the Americans to cross that parallel in any case. But if war comes, the PLA might just strike first across the Yalu and end it quickly. The DPRK is extremely aware of this, it makes them more weary to start anything because they have no real friends.
Do not think for a second that China has some sort of dictator that can decide what side of the fence they want to be on. You have a lot of diversity in thought on what to do about the DPRK in the PRC. Many of them still don't trust the US, and its more important to check us than to preserve trade relationships.
Do not think for a second that China has some sort of dictator that can decide what side of the fence they want to be on. You have a lot of diversity in thought on what to do about the DPRK in the PRC. Many of them still don't trust the US, and its more important to check us than to preserve trade relationships.
China doesn't want war. Period. I don't think you realize how many affluent Chinese tourists there are in Seoul. The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime. I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics.
> I don't think you realize how many affluent Chinese tourists there are in Seoul.
The PRC government could give a shit about a few tourists. Its more about the trade relations they have with the ROK (and PSY is really popular here).
> The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime.
Reread my post, this is exactly what I said. If you didn't know, the Yalu river forms the border between Liaoning and DPRK.
> I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics.
Now that is a weird statement to make. First of all, they are more concerned with trade relations, think of all the PRC citizens that will starve to death if the export factories have to close down because the PRC is in it bad with the US?
The PRC government could give a shit about a few tourists. Its more about the trade relations they have with the ROK (and PSY is really popular here).
> The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime.
Reread my post, this is exactly what I said. If you didn't know, the Yalu river forms the border between Liaoning and DPRK.
> I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics.
Now that is a weird statement to make. First of all, they are more concerned with trade relations, think of all the PRC citizens that will starve to death if the export factories have to close down because the PRC is in it bad with the US?
You are incorrect that "they could [sic] give a shit" (you probably meant couldn't) about wealthy Chinese citizens. With affluence comes influence. Maybe if we were talking about factory labourers they would not care, but when a country's wealthiest citizens are in mortal peril you can bet your ass there will a swift response.
You are correct that trade relations are key here, and I omitted this 800 pound gorilla. Thank you for the addition.
You are correct that trade relations are key here, and I omitted this 800 pound gorilla. Thank you for the addition.
When its war, they aren't going to sacrifice any intelligence/surprise advantage to preserve a few tourists, that is true for either side (PRC, ROK, DPRK, USA). It doesn't matter who these citizens are actually, and its probably not the "country's wealthiest citizens," those are either safely at home or in Hong Kong. We are talking just about a few rich business men at most.
The situation is not so delicate that China would be able to brush off these deaths for strategic reasons. I'm not even sure what you think a strategic reason for China biding it's time would be. A vague reference to intelligence/surprise attack doesn't really mean anything. A rapid response from the north is an automatic loss for North Korea, there will be no waiting.
There would be no wait actually. If DPRK warned the PRC that they were really going to attack, the PRC would just invade DPRK immediately, they might warn their tourists but this is only a secondary thought.
The moment that North Korea crosses the line China will simply roll through the undefended Northern border, dismantle NK's military, and install a new puppet regime from within the current government. Simple as that.
>hundreds of thousands of Fugitives
Damn. Somebody better call the US Marshals!
Damn. Somebody better call the US Marshals!
Here's the Korean version, in case the North Korean website goes down, or for South Koreans whose country is blocking it: (apologies if I've damaged the formatting)
https://gist.github.com/anonymous/5276280/raw/4ce722bf2f5cc4...
The English version seems to be a North Korean translation. The KCNA site published it in 5 languages. It's on page 2 of the main list of articles (page NaN actually, but it's second in navigation).
No copyright infringement intended.
https://gist.github.com/anonymous/5276280/raw/4ce722bf2f5cc4...
The English version seems to be a North Korean translation. The KCNA site published it in 5 languages. It's on page 2 of the main list of articles (page NaN actually, but it's second in navigation).
No copyright infringement intended.
And yet the World Food Programme continues shipping food and other basic supplies to North Korea to avoid further famines.
Surely such famines would not be particularly nice, but on the other hand, recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated yet again that no government can establish itself permanently without the support of its people; hence rendering the North Korean people responsible for these nuclear threats just as much as their government.
Surely such famines would not be particularly nice, but on the other hand, recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated yet again that no government can establish itself permanently without the support of its people; hence rendering the North Korean people responsible for these nuclear threats just as much as their government.
Have you been there? It seems a stretch to hold people responsible for the actions of their government when they are born and die in the same village, need permission to leave that village (and "wanting to go on a trip" doesn't count), have no way to communicate with anyone outside the village, have effectively no way to influence their government whatsoever, and the only source of information they have is the official government version of everything. You have as much influence over the DPRK government as they do.
Lack of freedom is maybe a reason to reject responsibility for one’s own society, but neither a justification nor an excuse. Being allowed to reject such responsibility on the basis of a lack of freedom would make it too easy for the general public to blame a select few for crimes committed by the state whilst enjoying their results just as well.
Lack of freedom is maybe a reason to reject responsibility for one’s own society, but neither a justification nor an excuse.
They're not rejecting responsibility. It's not as if they used to be fully in control and one day decided that they'd have a go instead at being prisoners of the state, utterly powerless, to see how that went. Nobody allowed them to reject responsibility.
Being allowed to reject such responsibility on the basis of a lack of freedom would make it too easy for the general public to blame a select few for crimes
Are you serious? You want to hold people responsible for something they didn't do and had absolutely no control over? If that's how it is, then YOU are also to be held responsible.
They're not rejecting responsibility. It's not as if they used to be fully in control and one day decided that they'd have a go instead at being prisoners of the state, utterly powerless, to see how that went. Nobody allowed them to reject responsibility.
Being allowed to reject such responsibility on the basis of a lack of freedom would make it too easy for the general public to blame a select few for crimes
Are you serious? You want to hold people responsible for something they didn't do and had absolutely no control over? If that's how it is, then YOU are also to be held responsible.
Unfortunately, there is nothing further South Korea can do until North Korea actually launches a full attack. Seoul can't be moved. South Korea can't attack preemptively unless North appears to be preparing a nuclear launch. Death in tens of thousands within first three days of war is expected and accepted. Horrible, yes. But years of threats have tempered reactions and people must go on with their lives.
Chances are NK will launch a restrained attack on one of the islands near border, inviting a response which I'm told will be measured yet quite strong. What they want is a stage to put on a display of thuggery because all they're getting is a busy signal, ruining their Gangbook style.
Anyway, IMO and all that.
Chances are NK will launch a restrained attack on one of the islands near border, inviting a response which I'm told will be measured yet quite strong. What they want is a stage to put on a display of thuggery because all they're getting is a busy signal, ruining their Gangbook style.
Anyway, IMO and all that.
I don't know why they even think they'd get away with this. All strategic targets will be flattened in 30 minutes flat and the rest of the country will just starve to death or die from the fallout. I assume they know this will happen?
I genuinely feel sorry for the people on both sides Of this conflict as they're all going to suffer if it kicks off.
If the international community gets involved as well, its going to drag out even longer than Afghanistan or Iraq.
Its ugly whatever happens.
I genuinely feel sorry for the people on both sides Of this conflict as they're all going to suffer if it kicks off.
If the international community gets involved as well, its going to drag out even longer than Afghanistan or Iraq.
Its ugly whatever happens.
They have a better chance of getting away with this than anyone else has had in recent past.
- The North Korean military is a serious conventional force.
- Their army is considered to be highly motivated, given the years of indoctrination and virtually no access to a real news channel. They will probably fight to death.
- They have an over-sized, capable special ops team.
- Nukes. It may or may not work well, but the rest of the world can't take this chance. We (rest of the world) are also just guessing how many they have.
- Seoul is within range of artillery fire. Also will be the first thing to get flattened. About 24 million people live in and around it.
- I doubt if their strategic targets will be sitting ducks for aerial bombing. Given that war and military is the only thing that country thinks about.
So yeah, the truth is that the rest of the world is just very scared. South Korean defense personnel have been repeated targeted in recent years; and nothing could be done. :(
- The North Korean military is a serious conventional force.
- Their army is considered to be highly motivated, given the years of indoctrination and virtually no access to a real news channel. They will probably fight to death.
- They have an over-sized, capable special ops team.
- Nukes. It may or may not work well, but the rest of the world can't take this chance. We (rest of the world) are also just guessing how many they have.
- Seoul is within range of artillery fire. Also will be the first thing to get flattened. About 24 million people live in and around it.
- I doubt if their strategic targets will be sitting ducks for aerial bombing. Given that war and military is the only thing that country thinks about.
So yeah, the truth is that the rest of the world is just very scared. South Korean defense personnel have been repeated targeted in recent years; and nothing could be done. :(
It takes a lot of artillery to flattern a city, and the DPRK doesn't have that many guns that can reach that far, or many artillery positions within 55km of Seoul. While they also probably have nuclear weapons, it's unlikely they have any means of delivering them yet.
The DPRK could potentially cause a lot of damage to civilians, but they cannot win an offensive war. The question is whether they're crazy enough to try.
The DPRK could potentially cause a lot of damage to civilians, but they cannot win an offensive war. The question is whether they're crazy enough to try.
Why doesn't Russia make a devil's deal with China to backstab NK, launch a surprise attack, and carve up the territory between them? With some nebulous hand-waving about their rhetoric leading to "global nuclear destabilization" or somesuch (even if it's clear from the lack of troop movements that the rhetoric is just rhetoric). They wouldn't have to deal with a popular rebellion in Iraq/Afghanistan, just send the people a little bit of food and start modernizing the countryside and they will be hailed as liberators.
Best to do it now, before they have to deal with another nuke club member in their backyard that's a total wild card...
And if Seoul gets demolished, South Korea isn't their ally, so that's Somebody Else's Problem.
Best to do it now, before they have to deal with another nuke club member in their backyard that's a total wild card...
And if Seoul gets demolished, South Korea isn't their ally, so that's Somebody Else's Problem.
There is something I don't get in this move. What's the purpose of Kim Yung-un? Is he mad enough to believe he can underdog the rest of the world with his dilapidated army? Does he believe that China will support him vs South Korea allies even if he launches an attack? Is it just a means to make the media of the rest of the world focus on him? Why? Does he want to be in position to negotiate an opening and say to his people: look and they are afraid of us and ready to talk? I rather believe in the latter option. Otherwise the only solution is to send him a sniper with a syringe of antipsychotics to pacify him.
The word "nuclear" appears 9 times in the text. This is scary.
This is pure speculation, but I'd be very surprised if US and South Korea didn't have a secret joint plan of disabling all possible locations of N.K.'s nuclear weapons in a minimal time. This wouldn't help Seoul itself in any way of course. But there have to be some national and military plans prepared for such situation for years...
Right. Nuclear in the context of regime with a history of irrational behavior that's been insulated from the consequences of its actions for so long it may actually believe some of the nonsense its official communications machinery puts out.
>Nuclear in the context of regime with a history of irrational behavior that's been insulated from the consequences of its actions for so long it may actually believe some of the nonsense its official communications machinery puts out.
Funny how all this could also translate directly to the US.
Funny how all this could also translate directly to the US.
Only the powerless public. The guys at the top seem to behave very rationally in their looting of the country.
North Korea doesn't have a way to deliver the nuclear bomb beyond its borders. It's hardly even conceivable they could smuggle one abroad by more pedestrian means like cargo ships...
I think what you say is right, but as you point out in your other comment, accurately, they can do a ton of damage with their insanely oversized conventional arsenal, and in a desperate moment who knows what an irrational actor might do with a nuclear device, even in their own country near the border with the South.
That has always been the assumption anyway. Currently nobody actually knows the condition of their conventional artillery or how much ammo they really have. We don't even really know their soldiers' or military command's willingness to fight a prolonged war. Kim of course doesn't run the country, there's no mythology surrounding him for the military leadership, and they're not going to fight a battle to the death for him.
I agree that North Korea can outlay a large amount of artillery fire immediately, but I think South Korea + the US can wipe out 90% of it within the first week of combat. After that it becomes strictly a ground war for the north. I also believe a lot less people will die in the south than typically proclaimed, and South Korea can rebuild quickly - meanwhile, the North Korean regime will be finished forever.
I agree that North Korea can outlay a large amount of artillery fire immediately, but I think South Korea + the US can wipe out 90% of it within the first week of combat. After that it becomes strictly a ground war for the north. I also believe a lot less people will die in the south than typically proclaimed, and South Korea can rebuild quickly - meanwhile, the North Korean regime will be finished forever.
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Serious question, because everyone seems to be talking about how NK doesn't have means to deliver a nuclear device over to SK. If they can hit Seoul with conventional weapons, why couldn't they retrofit some of that tech to carry a nuclear bomb?
From an article on NPR (http://www.npr.org/2013/01/28/170473476/north-koreas-rhetori...):
"The toughest technology in the nuclear world is to shrink a nuclear weapon down to something that is light enough to fit on a warhead and that can detonate at the right place and so forth."
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Is the war declaration as in actually a war where North Korea has already started firing guns, shells, rockets, charging with bayonets or whatever; or this is just a declaration "declaration" of war against South Korea?
Because this:
>>From this moment, the north-south relations will be put at the state of war ....
speaks of the latter it seems.
Because this:
>>From this moment, the north-south relations will be put at the state of war ....
speaks of the latter it seems.
So I think this situation merits some attention.
While I am sure it's mostly bluster, it's still a rather disturbing escalation of rhetoric from an unpredictable and dangerous regime, unlikely to be the most reliable of rational actors in times of high tension.
In case Reuters is down again - the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21979127
While I am sure it's mostly bluster, it's still a rather disturbing escalation of rhetoric from an unpredictable and dangerous regime, unlikely to be the most reliable of rational actors in times of high tension.
In case Reuters is down again - the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21979127
1) Most of NK's artillery is not in range of Seoul, the few that are in range of Seoul are in range of the northern part of Greater Seoul (essentially suburbs), which are nowhere near as populated as Seoul proper. NK has a very small amount mobile artillery which could be repositioned, but US/SK artillery and reconnaissance will be able to hit mobile artillery attempted to move within range of Seoul before it can get close enough to do any damage. Our missiles go further, hit harder, hit more accurately, than theirs do.
2) North Korea will not engage in a mainland war before receiving authorization or warning China, at which point Chinese tourists will be recalled from Seoul and Jeju. China will not allow North Korea to threaten the affluent Chinese tourists that frequent those area, and should North Korea attempt to do so it will be facing an invasion from the Chinese border, and most likely Russian border.
3) North Korea will likely try to hit a few small islands as part of their saber rattling in order to receive aid and will not escalate any further without North Korea losing everything in a matter of moments.
4) I'm in South Korea right now (Seoul actually) and I can tell you there is no tension in the air over this issue on the part of Koreans.
5) North Korea has no way to remotely deliver a nuclear device. The only countries that have developed miniturized nukes that the North Koreans could "carry" into the country are the US, Soviet Union, and possibly Israel. They have no "suitcase nuke" nor the technology to develop one. The only way they could "nuke" Seoul is if they build one within Seoul.