Groupon Sliding(thenextweb.com)
thenextweb.com
Groupon Sliding
http://thenextweb.com/insider/2012/04/20/groupon-falling-down-market-valuation-approaching-old-google-buyout-offer-price/?awesm=tnw.to_1E7Ly&utm_campaign=social%20media&utm_medium=share%20button&utm_source=Twitter&utm_content=Groupon%20falling%20down:%20Market%20valuation%20approaching%20old%20Google%20buyout%20offer%20price
35 comments
Those outcomes are likely. Although it's also possible that:
* next-quarter results are "less bad" than expected, and the large band of short sellers have to start buying to cover
* insiders feel that the stock is unfairly priced and are willing to hold on until it improves
* Facebook's IPO is a roaring success and generates a rising tide for all internet stocks
I think the first one has the most chance of happening. The stock is heavily shorted right now, any news that's not negative has the chance of sparking a rally.
* next-quarter results are "less bad" than expected, and the large band of short sellers have to start buying to cover
* insiders feel that the stock is unfairly priced and are willing to hold on until it improves
* Facebook's IPO is a roaring success and generates a rising tide for all internet stocks
I think the first one has the most chance of happening. The stock is heavily shorted right now, any news that's not negative has the chance of sparking a rally.
i just hope that the company goes bust before the lock-up expires. i'd rather see VCs write-off another bad investment rather than seeing that stock be dumped to pension funds.
Groupon isn't in any major index.
Groupon doesn't pay any form of dividend.
There is no major positive event to trade it around.
Given that, I'm curious to know what pension fund you think would invest in Groupon?
Groupon doesn't pay any form of dividend.
There is no major positive event to trade it around.
Given that, I'm curious to know what pension fund you think would invest in Groupon?
pension funds' investment scope are not restricted by any of the above, where did you get that information from?
> pension funds' investment scope are not restricted by any of the above,
Agreed, they aren't restirited to buying stocks that fit that criteria, but that is how they invest.
> where did you get that information from?
Hedgie here. Almost all pension funds don't invest in stocks unless: a) they are part of an index and the fund just buys the index b) the stock pays out some sort of income that the fund can use to fund its liabilities to the pension holders. c) the fund has some advantage that the rest of the market doesn't have that can make it money off of hte stock.
I can't really see any of the above applying globally to pension funds that would cause them to be a net buyer of groupon.
Now those funds, typically hedgies, will get in and trade groupon, ie by and short the stock between chosen intervals.
you might not believe it from all the negative press groupon has gotten here but there has been some strong buying happening from the hedgies, accompanied by even stronger shorting.
The borrow has been the largest reason why shorting hasn't been stronger.
As to the original point of Groupon being "dumped on pension funds". You'd be surprised but the quality of many of the investment professionals working at pension funds, there are some really smart people working there.
They won't just buy groupon like complete idiots, they are typically very intelligent investors. The only case I can see them being net buyers are the points I originally listed.
1) they are forced to as they have to own certain indexes 2) the stock starts paying out a large and consistent revenue stream the fund can use to cover it's monthly liabilities. 3) they do a deal with groupon to put more money into it that gets them a value well below what the current mkt value is.
Agreed, they aren't restirited to buying stocks that fit that criteria, but that is how they invest.
> where did you get that information from?
Hedgie here. Almost all pension funds don't invest in stocks unless: a) they are part of an index and the fund just buys the index b) the stock pays out some sort of income that the fund can use to fund its liabilities to the pension holders. c) the fund has some advantage that the rest of the market doesn't have that can make it money off of hte stock.
I can't really see any of the above applying globally to pension funds that would cause them to be a net buyer of groupon.
Now those funds, typically hedgies, will get in and trade groupon, ie by and short the stock between chosen intervals.
you might not believe it from all the negative press groupon has gotten here but there has been some strong buying happening from the hedgies, accompanied by even stronger shorting.
The borrow has been the largest reason why shorting hasn't been stronger.
As to the original point of Groupon being "dumped on pension funds". You'd be surprised but the quality of many of the investment professionals working at pension funds, there are some really smart people working there.
They won't just buy groupon like complete idiots, they are typically very intelligent investors. The only case I can see them being net buyers are the points I originally listed.
1) they are forced to as they have to own certain indexes 2) the stock starts paying out a large and consistent revenue stream the fund can use to cover it's monthly liabilities. 3) they do a deal with groupon to put more money into it that gets them a value well below what the current mkt value is.
however, many pension funds do invest in VC funds.
This article editorializes "The company’s deflation has thrown something of a pall over tech companies, and could introduce chop into the IPO waters". Groupon is a special case. Much of their current woes is a new set of questions about their accounting. Ie: http://retheauditors.com/2012/04/07/groupon-you-must-have-fa...
I treat it as an instant credibility demerit against journalists and headline-writers who casually group Groupon with other completely different, more tech-heavy, more honest companies.
I hope this signals the end of that bubble.
I was recently talking to a friend working at a hedge fund, and the Groupon topic came up. They say that, after some deep analysis/valuation, Groupon ain't worth more than $1.5bn (max). He also said that many investors don't see Groupon as tech, so other companies thinking of IPOing anytime soon should be save from this disastrous company.
Yes! I believe it.
We are experiencing the same here in Sri Lanka.
We had a great war of GroupOn like sites in past 6 months. But only one is working on it greatly.
It is a FAD for me.
We had a great war of GroupOn like sites in past 6 months. But only one is working on it greatly.
It is a FAD for me.
I doubt its even that, and I question the due diligence of the People at said Hedge Fund as Groupon has been using shadow banking and nefarious accounting to hide massive loses since its inception.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/groupon-inc-grpn-accounting...
There is no accurate way to place a (positive) estimate/valuation of the operation or its profitability, personally I doubt they even have operating capital since it took that dive earlier this month. It looked to me like the tail end of a significant short selling position finally came to fruition by insiders who got in early.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/groupon-inc-grpn-accounting...
There is no accurate way to place a (positive) estimate/valuation of the operation or its profitability, personally I doubt they even have operating capital since it took that dive earlier this month. It looked to me like the tail end of a significant short selling position finally came to fruition by insiders who got in early.
Clearly Groupon is going to fail, that seems fairly certain now (right?).
But the real question is what the long term fall out from that will be?
But the real question is what the long term fall out from that will be?
[deleted]
Dunno about their business prospects but as a consumer I've found myself using them and LivingSocial more and more. Not restaurants, but things like yoga classes, massage, museum exhibits etc.
Using Groupon at a restaurant is like telling the waitstaff, "Hi I'd like you to treat me like shit tonight."
Or, you have two more realistic options:
- Present the coupon when settling the bill - Let your server know upfront that you will tip against the price before the coupon. And then do it.
- Present the coupon when settling the bill - Let your server know upfront that you will tip against the price before the coupon. And then do it.
The coupons I bought from Groupon a while back required me to present the coupons before being seated...
I haven't really noticed the pall. LinkedIn and Jive are doing very, very well on the public markets. As far as the private markets, valuations and acquisition prices don't seem to be, ahem, slipping too much.
Off-topic, but does anybody else find the Groupon stock "chart" on that page infuriating?! It looks as if it's interactive, suggesting that you can use the control at the top to zoom in on a particular time range, or use the slider at the bottom to go back in time. And the "hand" cursor on mouse-over suggests that you can interact with it. But clicking anywhere just serves to reload the page! Maybe it's just me but it took me two full-page reloads to realize I was being conned.
@thenextweb.com: please embed the real, functional widget; or, failing that, embed a chart that doesn't look like a widget. If you really, really must embed a functional-looking but non-functional picture of a widget, at least link it to the real widget.
And if for some reason none of the above is possible, and you really have to include a picture of something that looks like you can interact with it, don't make it clickable because doing so will confuse the hell out of people like me.
@thenextweb.com: please embed the real, functional widget; or, failing that, embed a chart that doesn't look like a widget. If you really, really must embed a functional-looking but non-functional picture of a widget, at least link it to the real widget.
And if for some reason none of the above is possible, and you really have to include a picture of something that looks like you can interact with it, don't make it clickable because doing so will confuse the hell out of people like me.
>"But clicking anywhere just serves to reload the page! Maybe it's just me but it took me two full-page reloads to realize I was being conned."
Yeah, it looks like they just took a screen shot of the Google Finance chart:
https://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:GRPN
Kind of weird.
Yeah, it looks like they just took a screen shot of the Google Finance chart:
https://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:GRPN
Kind of weird.
No i think it's fine. After you click it once you'll know. Takes about 3 seconds.
Agreed! Very unprofessional to take screenshots with interactive components and leave them there.
I spent a few seconds trying to drag the dang scroll bar!
I spent a few seconds trying to drag the dang scroll bar!
This is exactly what I was and is expecting.
They are in a tough spot.
I think the article overstates the impact of their stock performance on the overall tech market. If they underperform, it might keep sanity in the market. And most tech firms don't follow their business model. It may hurt coupon site fast followers, but that's not a big loss. The Facebook IPO will erase any bad memories of Groupon.
I think the article overstates the impact of their stock performance on the overall tech market. If they underperform, it might keep sanity in the market. And most tech firms don't follow their business model. It may hurt coupon site fast followers, but that's not a big loss. The Facebook IPO will erase any bad memories of Groupon.
This company is about Andrew Mason.
From a former employee quoted on TC - "For all the shit he takes, you should especially worry if Andrew isn’t running Groupon."
I loved this.
Mason in the press gets an undercurrent of "not from the valley" or "former music major from northwestern" or "eccentric".
As a result the tilt of stories about Groupon suggest that it was built on "won the lottery" luck, not "when preparation meets opportunity" luck.
The guy built the fastest-to-a-billion in REVENUE ever online.
I get the inherent problems @ Groupon, but can't help remembering when Steve Jobs was dismissed as a has-been that was lucky to ride on the coattails of Woz, and thrown to the wolves by the board.
From a former employee quoted on TC - "For all the shit he takes, you should especially worry if Andrew isn’t running Groupon."
I loved this.
Mason in the press gets an undercurrent of "not from the valley" or "former music major from northwestern" or "eccentric".
As a result the tilt of stories about Groupon suggest that it was built on "won the lottery" luck, not "when preparation meets opportunity" luck.
The guy built the fastest-to-a-billion in REVENUE ever online.
I get the inherent problems @ Groupon, but can't help remembering when Steve Jobs was dismissed as a has-been that was lucky to ride on the coattails of Woz, and thrown to the wolves by the board.
We need a corollary to Godwin's law for references to Steve Jobs.
Together they would constitute the 'gambler's ruin' of online discussion forums.
Together they would constitute the 'gambler's ruin' of online discussion forums.
• they have to report their next-quarter results, the first reporting after they belatedly recharacterized a profit as a loss. They'll be watched like a hawk, and even if they report good results many will have doubts.
• the 6-month lockup on many insiders selling their shares expires
• Facebook goes public. Contrasted against Facebook and other newly-public real-profits, non-deceptive-accounting tech companies, GRPN will stick out as the shifty exception. It won't have the halo of being mentally grouped with other more solid companies much longer.