The Backdoor That Keeps Russian Oil Flowing into Europe(bloombergquint.com)
bloombergquint.com
The Backdoor That Keeps Russian Oil Flowing into Europe
https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/ukraine-war-this-backdoor-keeps-russian-oil-flowing-into-europe
18 comments
I can't speak for the Ukrainians, but stopping the war is probably more important than the transit royalties.
As an immediate goal – maybe, but how connected these things are? It's not like Ukraine getting paid their transit tariffs actively funds the war.
Also, would the war stop if Ukraine takes a nuclear option and blows up the pipeline? Unlikely, I'd say. But that's a good way to jeopardize the future in N years, throwing away economic and political leverage like that. The war would go away – but so would the income and power.
Also, would the war stop if Ukraine takes a nuclear option and blows up the pipeline? Unlikely, I'd say. But that's a good way to jeopardize the future in N years, throwing away economic and political leverage like that. The war would go away – but so would the income and power.
But it's a tariff on revenue that goes to Russian oil companies--all of whom have close ties to Putin's administration.
Again, I can't speak for Ukraine, but I think their policy position is clear. It's not like the Ukrainians are saying, "Russian oil is great! Everybody buy it now!"
Again, I can't speak for Ukraine, but I think their policy position is clear. It's not like the Ukrainians are saying, "Russian oil is great! Everybody buy it now!"
> I can't speak for the Ukrainians, but stopping the war is probably more important than the transit royalties.
If it was so, then Ukranians themselves would have stopped the very profitable gas transit.
If it was so, then Ukranians themselves would have stopped the very profitable gas transit.
The EU just told Zelensky not to touch the pipelines, otherwise Ukraine would loose support of many European countries.
Since the start of Putin's criminal invasion of Ukraine, the EU has paid 35 billion euros to Russia and send about 1 billion € of weapons.
The UK sent plenty of weapons, certainly because the Tories had to prove that they have not been corrupted by Russian oligarchs' money - which they were. London has been nicknamed "the Laundry" by Russian oligarchs.
The US has sent plenty as well.
Stopping the imports of oil and gas would be a huge blow for the Russian economy. The EU is working on it, but the dependency is very high.
So the EU ought to act more decently towards Ukraine and provide all the weapons and training they need. I consider that volunteers among professional soldiers should be allowed to take a sabbatical and go - by their owns means and without weapons - to Ukraine. In the end, they will retrieve the weapons they are used to.
We need to do more for Ukraine. The dependency on the Russian has and oil makes that need even more pressing.
Tens of thousand professional soldiers from the EU would make a difference.
Note: The volunteers going on their own, it implies that they won't be paid. So private citizens would have to compensate them: they have families to sustain. I'm pretty sure that money wouldn't be a problem. But it has to remain a private decision, nothing involving the states.
By the way, OTAN is a defensive alliance. It doesn't forbid a member to decide to send troops on the Ukrainian front. The US won't and shouldn't. That's an European war. Having the US support (weapons, logistics, intelligence) is already a huge help.
As a French citizen, I feel that our duty as a democracy is to officially sends troops to Ukraine. Putin needs to be stopped.
I don't believe in a second of a nuclear escalation, escape on one matter: Crimea. It's an Ukrainian territory but Russians may go bersek if we retake it. But let's kick Putin out of Dombass and Transnistria.
But, if reelected, Macron is far too concerned by French large investments in Russia ; and its far-right opponent, Le Pen, share many views with Putin (and has yet to reimburse 12 millions of euros lent by a Russian bank for her 2017 campaign).
Since the start of Putin's criminal invasion of Ukraine, the EU has paid 35 billion euros to Russia and send about 1 billion € of weapons.
The UK sent plenty of weapons, certainly because the Tories had to prove that they have not been corrupted by Russian oligarchs' money - which they were. London has been nicknamed "the Laundry" by Russian oligarchs.
The US has sent plenty as well.
Stopping the imports of oil and gas would be a huge blow for the Russian economy. The EU is working on it, but the dependency is very high.
So the EU ought to act more decently towards Ukraine and provide all the weapons and training they need. I consider that volunteers among professional soldiers should be allowed to take a sabbatical and go - by their owns means and without weapons - to Ukraine. In the end, they will retrieve the weapons they are used to.
We need to do more for Ukraine. The dependency on the Russian has and oil makes that need even more pressing.
Tens of thousand professional soldiers from the EU would make a difference.
Note: The volunteers going on their own, it implies that they won't be paid. So private citizens would have to compensate them: they have families to sustain. I'm pretty sure that money wouldn't be a problem. But it has to remain a private decision, nothing involving the states.
By the way, OTAN is a defensive alliance. It doesn't forbid a member to decide to send troops on the Ukrainian front. The US won't and shouldn't. That's an European war. Having the US support (weapons, logistics, intelligence) is already a huge help.
As a French citizen, I feel that our duty as a democracy is to officially sends troops to Ukraine. Putin needs to be stopped.
I don't believe in a second of a nuclear escalation, escape on one matter: Crimea. It's an Ukrainian territory but Russians may go bersek if we retake it. But let's kick Putin out of Dombass and Transnistria.
But, if reelected, Macron is far too concerned by French large investments in Russia ; and its far-right opponent, Le Pen, share many views with Putin (and has yet to reimburse 12 millions of euros lent by a Russian bank for her 2017 campaign).
> By the way, OTAN is a defensive alliance.
Small useless nitpick, it's called NATO in English.
> I don't believe in a second of a nuclear escalation, escape on one matter: Crimea. It's an Ukrainian territory but Russians may go bersek if we retake it. But let's kick Putin out of Dombass and Transnistria.
It's a matter of water - strategic access to the Black sea, and actually having water in Crimea for food and drinking.
I don't think "leave Putin with just Crimea" works either, it's long term unsustainable. Potable water access issues are always ugly, and often lead to instability, like the conflicts that happen in the Palestine region (most of them, at least partially water related), or the current issues plaging Egypt and Ethiopia (disputes over the use of the Nile's water). Russia is not a rich country and can't do the equivalent of the Berlin airlift to relive Crimea of water issues if, say, the North Crimean Canal closes again.
Small useless nitpick, it's called NATO in English.
> I don't believe in a second of a nuclear escalation, escape on one matter: Crimea. It's an Ukrainian territory but Russians may go bersek if we retake it. But let's kick Putin out of Dombass and Transnistria.
It's a matter of water - strategic access to the Black sea, and actually having water in Crimea for food and drinking.
I don't think "leave Putin with just Crimea" works either, it's long term unsustainable. Potable water access issues are always ugly, and often lead to instability, like the conflicts that happen in the Palestine region (most of them, at least partially water related), or the current issues plaging Egypt and Ethiopia (disputes over the use of the Nile's water). Russia is not a rich country and can't do the equivalent of the Berlin airlift to relive Crimea of water issues if, say, the North Crimean Canal closes again.
Yes, NATO of course, I often get lost between my languages.
I had no idea of the water dimension of the Crimean issue. Btw, just to be clear, I'm not at all at ease with the very idea of leaving Crimea to Putin: it's an Ukrainian territory.
Indeed, the water issue would inevitably lead to a new conflict later.
I'm very afraid of the possibility that the democracies have not sent enough weapons to Ukraine for the coming operations. I doubt Russians will make the same mistakes again. Obviously, they are taking their time to reorganize ; I guess that also give time to Ukrainians to prepare and to move the newly delivered weapons to the front.
I also brace for a very possible victory of the far-right candidate to the French throne - since we French basically elect a temporary monarch with very large powers without the decent level of checks and balance. That candidate would a new Orban among the EU and NATO. She is a typical populist, but Macron is, to be fair, the lesson-giving super bright guy which policies favor the bourgeoisie and the wealthy.
It's a nightmare, really.
I had no idea of the water dimension of the Crimean issue. Btw, just to be clear, I'm not at all at ease with the very idea of leaving Crimea to Putin: it's an Ukrainian territory.
Indeed, the water issue would inevitably lead to a new conflict later.
I'm very afraid of the possibility that the democracies have not sent enough weapons to Ukraine for the coming operations. I doubt Russians will make the same mistakes again. Obviously, they are taking their time to reorganize ; I guess that also give time to Ukrainians to prepare and to move the newly delivered weapons to the front.
I also brace for a very possible victory of the far-right candidate to the French throne - since we French basically elect a temporary monarch with very large powers without the decent level of checks and balance. That candidate would a new Orban among the EU and NATO. She is a typical populist, but Macron is, to be fair, the lesson-giving super bright guy which policies favor the bourgeoisie and the wealthy.
It's a nightmare, really.
How about a ramping up tarriff so there's no shock?
it doesn't matter
what about USA stop importing oil from Russia?
they increased their imports since the crisis
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1257500.shtml
what about USA stop importing oil from Russia?
they increased their imports since the crisis
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1257500.shtml
What's new? Why are we all pretend acting as if corporates finding and exploiting loopholes is something new? Or that some loopholes are deliberately introduced by the government on behest of some corporate lobbying?
While western propaganda may hype about all the crippling sanctions against Russia, and Russian propaganda might to try to reassure everyone that the sanctions do not hurt because of the counter measures they have taken, the political reality in between is that Europe does not currently want Russia as a failed state next door. It is simply not prepared right now to deal with the repercussions. And the US also knows that sanctions cannot achieve their full goals of totally crippling the Russian economy while Russia has support from China and India and other smaller emerging economies. If the US sanctions China and India, as they are legally required to, it would lead to the consolidation of the world's largest market (China and India) with Russia. That is something that both Russia and China really want (something like BRICS, but not just on paper) but what US & Europe do fear.
While western propaganda may hype about all the crippling sanctions against Russia, and Russian propaganda might to try to reassure everyone that the sanctions do not hurt because of the counter measures they have taken, the political reality in between is that Europe does not currently want Russia as a failed state next door. It is simply not prepared right now to deal with the repercussions. And the US also knows that sanctions cannot achieve their full goals of totally crippling the Russian economy while Russia has support from China and India and other smaller emerging economies. If the US sanctions China and India, as they are legally required to, it would lead to the consolidation of the world's largest market (China and India) with Russia. That is something that both Russia and China really want (something like BRICS, but not just on paper) but what US & Europe do fear.
> corporates finding and exploiting loopholes
Not sure how preventing half of Europe's economy grinding to a halt and Joe citizen freezing their butt off because of natural gas supply running out can be characterized as "corporates finding loopholes"
Not sure how preventing half of Europe's economy grinding to a halt and Joe citizen freezing their butt off because of natural gas supply running out can be characterized as "corporates finding loopholes"
I addressed that later - governments deliberately introducing loopholes (though I omitted to add, "to protect their own interests") and Europe not wanting Russia to be a failed state.
That's a complicated matter.
Without oil and gas Europe's economy will take a massive hit, same with poorer countries that can't afford the higher prices.
This money is missing then to help Ukraine.
On the other hand what can russia do with the money? If they need components from other countries they are largely cut off from access. If they don't need foreign components then they don't need money they can print it.
I think certain sanctions will hit others harder than russia and will actually put leverage in the hand of russia. Without gas steel and glass producer risk of losing their melting tanks, ehat will directly effect weapons production.
On the other hand what can russia do with the money? If they need components from other countries they are largely cut off from access. If they don't need foreign components then they don't need money they can print it.
I think certain sanctions will hit others harder than russia and will actually put leverage in the hand of russia. Without gas steel and glass producer risk of losing their melting tanks, ehat will directly effect weapons production.
Since hydrocarbons are used a lot in heating, and so demand is much lower in summer, there might be an opportunity here : hit Russia as strongly as possible with sanctions, going as far as to break the supply contracts (including for coal !), and hope for a quick capitulation before next winter. (Going to depend on the state of strategic reserves of course, AFAIK they're not in their best shape right now, but still...)
A strong strike also makes it less likely for Russia to be able to adapt fast enough using loopholes like these.
https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/natural-gas-dem...
A strong strike also makes it less likely for Russia to be able to adapt fast enough using loopholes like these.
https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/natural-gas-dem...
> and hope for a quick capitulation before next winter.
Sure, Russia will capitulate in a matter of months in the face of economic sanctions. Just like Iraq, Iran, Cuba and North Korea did. Oh, wait.
Sure, Russia will capitulate in a matter of months in the face of economic sanctions. Just like Iraq, Iran, Cuba and North Korea did. Oh, wait.
They all started from a much less developed and connected economy. The average Russian has a smartphone, access to Internet, uses YouTube, etc. It's part of their daily lives and it's no longer there ( or severely restricted). Contrast that with the average Iranian or North Korean, who had limited interactions with "western" products that matter.
And that's just for the people and the hope they'll rise up. The Russian economy is also very dependent on imports of high quality stuffs they can't replace. Including their main income source, natural resources ( they use Western tech for sensors and whatnot around extracting and transporting oil, gas, etc.).
And that's just for the people and the hope they'll rise up. The Russian economy is also very dependent on imports of high quality stuffs they can't replace. Including their main income source, natural resources ( they use Western tech for sensors and whatnot around extracting and transporting oil, gas, etc.).
Russia can import all the Western consumer products it wants from China in exchange for natural resources.
The idea that Russians will rise up because they can't access YouTube is wishful thinking. Stalin was objectively worse. But he still managed to die in office without ever having to face a real uprising.
While there might be a degradation in efficiency, it's not like Russia will be unable to keep extracting natural resources without Western assistance. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was able to keep selling oil despite the sanctions.
The idea that Russians will rise up because they can't access YouTube is wishful thinking. Stalin was objectively worse. But he still managed to die in office without ever having to face a real uprising.
While there might be a degradation in efficiency, it's not like Russia will be unable to keep extracting natural resources without Western assistance. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was able to keep selling oil despite the sanctions.
I'd like to see them import airliners, iPhones or high precision sensors from China.
I specifically said consumer products. But fine:
Russian aircraft industry still remains very capable. It's not unimaginable that they'll be able to keep the planes they stole flying for a while. Sure, there might be crashes like with Iran. But it's not like Russian regime particular cares about the lives of Russian citizens.
Last I checked iPhones were made in China. Sure, Apple might decide not to sell them in Russia but that still leaves perfectly serviceable smartphones from the likes of Xaomi, Huawei and Oppo.
Iran somehow manages to keep pumping oil and gas despite the sanctions.
While there will be obvious loss of productivity, let's stop pretending that the sanctions will somehow grind the Russian economy to a halt or that they will induce regime change.
Russian aircraft industry still remains very capable. It's not unimaginable that they'll be able to keep the planes they stole flying for a while. Sure, there might be crashes like with Iran. But it's not like Russian regime particular cares about the lives of Russian citizens.
Last I checked iPhones were made in China. Sure, Apple might decide not to sell them in Russia but that still leaves perfectly serviceable smartphones from the likes of Xaomi, Huawei and Oppo.
Iran somehow manages to keep pumping oil and gas despite the sanctions.
While there will be obvious loss of productivity, let's stop pretending that the sanctions will somehow grind the Russian economy to a halt or that they will induce regime change.
> It's not unimaginable that they'll be able to keep the planes they stole flying for a while.
The funny thing is, they can't even attept to give them back, the airspace of "the rightfull owners" is closed to Russia.
And accepting any sort of materials/capital from Russia is frowned upon now.
The funny thing is, they can't even attept to give them back, the airspace of "the rightfull owners" is closed to Russia.
And accepting any sort of materials/capital from Russia is frowned upon now.
Engaging in war takes a massive amount of economic production. Especially when your burning resources like Russia is currently. If Russia wants to replace its technology losses in a relatively quick manner it absolutely will take a large portion of their economy to do so.
> I'd like to see them import airliners
They build their own.
> iPhones or high precision sensors from China.
China itself won't do it, but I forsee that less savoury third parties are probably very interested in partaking this potential highly profitable triangular trade route.
They build their own.
> iPhones or high precision sensors from China.
China itself won't do it, but I forsee that less savoury third parties are probably very interested in partaking this potential highly profitable triangular trade route.
> They build their own.
No they don't. The only airliner they build is the small Sukhoi SSJ-10, which uses French engines and a ton of Western avionics and systems.
No they don't. The only airliner they build is the small Sukhoi SSJ-10, which uses French engines and a ton of Western avionics and systems.
Tu-204? It's performance and efficiency are horrible by Western standards, but it's by no mean bad enough to be unusable.
Irkut MC-21? Most of the actual aircraft don't need to be big to be effective. Russia actually has a small population for it's size.
They actually (well, not anymore) build a substantial ammount of Ukranian aircraft as well, most of the Ukraine Antonov aircraft was more or less actually manufactured in Russia.
Irkut MC-21? Most of the actual aircraft don't need to be big to be effective. Russia actually has a small population for it's size.
They actually (well, not anymore) build a substantial ammount of Ukranian aircraft as well, most of the Ukraine Antonov aircraft was more or less actually manufactured in Russia.
North Korea, Cuba, and Iran didn’t get sanctioned for staging an invasion against another country. Iran invaded another country and didn’t have nukes…
The question at hand is the practical impacts of economic sanctions against Russia. Imagining Russia will capitulate by next winter when much weaker regimes managed to hold out for decades is pure fantasy.
You mean Iraq invaded another country, after they failed invading Iran with western support.
Probably, but the "stop invading Ukraine" goal is much more achievable too.
You have ingested too much propaganda (no insult, just a cheery consideration): living in France, if the government change from the actual cleptocratic one to a democratic one perhaps re-nationalizing EDF and pushin nuclear enough a small cohort of people who live in homes insulated enough to been able to cool and heat with electricity, owning EVs, can survive without much more issues than a big rise in expenses for anything, food and goods in particular.
BUT those who live in classic badly/non insulated homes (vast majority of the population, and vast majority of those who can afford new homes and EVs, have no choice than revolt in a new French Revolution, hoping to do better than the first witch means avoiding putting a new élite in chief like the old one, or exactly the old one with different puppets/public face or starve to death. That not counting a "small" fact like the industry energy needs, since even with nuclear not everything is electric and not everything can be electric in a short time period.
The strike of sanctions actually is AGAINST EU interest, far less against Russian interest. The USA/UK want to destroy EU since they know EU was approaching Russia, since that's our best interest [1], and they know the next war in Asia will impede them to keep EU under their boots. A small suggestion: read Klaus Schwab, Mark Carney books for knowing their agenda and Antony Sutton's books to know a bit of history. You'll discovering that you fight/cheering for your own enemy, even if you are from USA. I'm not joking, really.
[1] we have the tech but not space nor natural resources, Russia have natural resources, space and a solid enough country to be a fair partner not a dictatorial one like the USA/UK (together since these days are not two countries but a similar élite that act with equal targets against any population, their one included) and a near partner, Europe by nature till the Urals.
BUT those who live in classic badly/non insulated homes (vast majority of the population, and vast majority of those who can afford new homes and EVs, have no choice than revolt in a new French Revolution, hoping to do better than the first witch means avoiding putting a new élite in chief like the old one, or exactly the old one with different puppets/public face or starve to death. That not counting a "small" fact like the industry energy needs, since even with nuclear not everything is electric and not everything can be electric in a short time period.
The strike of sanctions actually is AGAINST EU interest, far less against Russian interest. The USA/UK want to destroy EU since they know EU was approaching Russia, since that's our best interest [1], and they know the next war in Asia will impede them to keep EU under their boots. A small suggestion: read Klaus Schwab, Mark Carney books for knowing their agenda and Antony Sutton's books to know a bit of history. You'll discovering that you fight/cheering for your own enemy, even if you are from USA. I'm not joking, really.
[1] we have the tech but not space nor natural resources, Russia have natural resources, space and a solid enough country to be a fair partner not a dictatorial one like the USA/UK (together since these days are not two countries but a similar élite that act with equal targets against any population, their one included) and a near partner, Europe by nature till the Urals.
I only see here lots of words and no numbers that would actually provide criticism of my plan. Even though I left an opening with the mention of strategic reserves !
What numbers you have and what numbers you want? I imaging you did know that most cars, trucks, ships, airplanes, many industries run on oil. Cheap oil is obviously a nice thing to have also to build the Green New Deal. I imaging you have seen the food provisioning issues. The skyrocketing prices sold as "caused by the war" but skyrocketed before the war and caused by financial speculation not by the evil Russian bear and so on.
What's your plan? Produce fertilizers without gas + without animals since the Green New deal dislike meat? Produce the electric revolution without energy? BTW strategic reserves are for emergencies, using them without a plan to replenish them means consume anything and remain without anything and no plan.
I've built my new house few years ago, well insulated, with p.v. etc I do not own EVs because so far a far from being a good idea but when neoliberals will push, because they'll do, gasoline to 4 euros/liter than an EV will be needed and I can recharge it, but industries can't and I do not produce such systems in my garage. While vast majority of population can't even afford a new home.
What's your plan? Produce fertilizers without gas + without animals since the Green New deal dislike meat? Produce the electric revolution without energy? BTW strategic reserves are for emergencies, using them without a plan to replenish them means consume anything and remain without anything and no plan.
I've built my new house few years ago, well insulated, with p.v. etc I do not own EVs because so far a far from being a good idea but when neoliberals will push, because they'll do, gasoline to 4 euros/liter than an EV will be needed and I can recharge it, but industries can't and I do not produce such systems in my garage. While vast majority of population can't even afford a new home.
And this isn't an emergency ?
When I posted my first comment, numbers in the link, I expected at least some of the answers to be in the vein of "lol no, we've been caught with our pants down, see this [source], we would have horrible shortages of X Y months before even the next winter", or maybe "ok, looks like we'll make it up to Z date[source], but that's quite the risk to take !"
But nope, it's mostly been what looks like posturing about how I'm in denial of how the economy needs energy to run or something, even though I've explicitly based my first post on those considerations ! Really disappointed about HN here... (Jancovici, anyone ?)
When I posted my first comment, numbers in the link, I expected at least some of the answers to be in the vein of "lol no, we've been caught with our pants down, see this [source], we would have horrible shortages of X Y months before even the next winter", or maybe "ok, looks like we'll make it up to Z date[source], but that's quite the risk to take !"
But nope, it's mostly been what looks like posturing about how I'm in denial of how the economy needs energy to run or something, even though I've explicitly based my first post on those considerations ! Really disappointed about HN here... (Jancovici, anyone ?)
Numbers in modern managerial-driven society are consider The Absolute Truth while reality is "just a defective instance of our model", they are not. You can't have real tangible numbers, just generic approximations that might be more or less true.
Climate change is evidently an emergency and evidently the Green New Deal public answers are not answers, their green color is dollar green not spring-grass ones. Actual shortage are probably 30% due to climate change, the rest due to artificial speculations and maneuvers to push "World Government" [1] green deal/great reset. But try to analyze it: from what they published so far if you want a realistic scenario you need to kill around 4 billion of humans, pushing too many more in extreme poverty. Did you really want numbers?
[1] https://www.worldgovernmentsummit.org
Climate change is evidently an emergency and evidently the Green New Deal public answers are not answers, their green color is dollar green not spring-grass ones. Actual shortage are probably 30% due to climate change, the rest due to artificial speculations and maneuvers to push "World Government" [1] green deal/great reset. But try to analyze it: from what they published so far if you want a realistic scenario you need to kill around 4 billion of humans, pushing too many more in extreme poverty. Did you really want numbers?
[1] https://www.worldgovernmentsummit.org
> Numbers in modern managerial-driven society are consider The Absolute Truth while reality is "just a defective instance of our model", they are not. You can't have real tangible numbers, just generic approximations that might be more or less true.
Yet again, why do you assume that I'm guilty of this ? I didn't ask for precise numbers, and you're throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
I'm talking about the (new) Russian invasion of Ukraine being an emergency.
(And the issues of overpopulation/pollution/depletion of natural resources aren't new - King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970 - and it did in 1970 - and it's not like he pulled those numbers out of his ass, but he based them on known numbers about production rates and discovery trends. And these topics were discussed quite extensively in the 70's, before we decided that we didn't care about the future - if anything, a forced reduction of EU reliance on hydrocarbons is also a good way to finally prepare us to the inevitable shortages that we're going to face anyway in the next decades.)
Yet again, why do you assume that I'm guilty of this ? I didn't ask for precise numbers, and you're throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
I'm talking about the (new) Russian invasion of Ukraine being an emergency.
(And the issues of overpopulation/pollution/depletion of natural resources aren't new - King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970 - and it did in 1970 - and it's not like he pulled those numbers out of his ass, but he based them on known numbers about production rates and discovery trends. And these topics were discussed quite extensively in the 70's, before we decided that we didn't care about the future - if anything, a forced reduction of EU reliance on hydrocarbons is also a good way to finally prepare us to the inevitable shortages that we're going to face anyway in the next decades.)
It's not something to be guilty :-) it's just a common way of thinking. Like when you read "that's X temperature outside" thinking that's a real temperature not a local and punctual measure witch give some insight but just at a short distance it can be really different.
Ukrainian war for instance is an emergency in certain terms:
- first for the people living there, on both sides, and that's more a tragedy than an emergency but not a new tragedy, it's start formally in 2013-14;
- secondly for countries that depend on Ukrainian and Russian's grains and poultry like Turkey, Middle-est in general, large part of Africa etc, that's new, but that's not a thing can be solved without ANNIHILATING NATO witch means that the EU en-mass say: we are out, we are interesting in entering CSTO and EAEU as partners, something not going to happen seen actual élites and mean population;
- an emergency because it's the first start of WWIII, witch is a tragedy by itself, and a special one since we have nukes and some in the NATO area think they can be used as offensive means not just as a last resort suicide since the '60s. Again the sole way to stop that is erasing neoliberals, not something going to happen;
- climate change is another tragedy, but not something can be changes by us in little time, we can only adapt, and Green New Deal is not really a way to adapt, it's just a way to replicate a Chinese society in the west, some tech aspects are good of course, but they can't work on scale and more important they can't work if not managed by States NOT by public-private criminal associations, pardon, partnerships, another things that can't be politically fixed soon;
- resources are a big issue that will bring all to war, as always, again not something solvable.
So what? So the sole rational choice I see, seen the mean population, is try to protect ourselves individually, hoping the new "20+years nazi-fasists regimes at war" will not last more than the old ones and that at the end when enough population revolt we still have means not only to revolt but to live correcting the errors of WWII revolts witch means annihilating not just the public puppets but the puppet masters.
Oh, BTW there is NO EU preparation to reduce the reliance on fossils, there is just a push toward impoverishing again and destroying again Europe switching from Russian sold resources to USA sold ones. If you really read the actual state of thing and you try very simple mental calculus that's the sole conclusion you can draw. Even if we start to put all industrial power in p.v. and eolic now we can't really reduce reliance on fossils for decades. We can't really run on p.v. or eolic for industry so without nuclear only fossils remain. As they remain for aviation. The logic path for EU is keeping buying Russian fossils (as it happen) but with a public trial and lifetime sentences to those in EU Energy and EU Commission who choose to transform an inter-State public market in a financial one in Holland, with Dutch TTf etc. clearly saying that now energy sector is back to the public and all managers and politicians involved will discover how hard Democratic justice can be. In the practical side pushing renewables, relocalization, etc BUT nothing done by the private under public-private partnerships. And pushing fusion research with ONLY public bodies involved.
I can't really know how terrible is the actual situations but in any case the sole hope for humans is changing capitalism, not in the Schwab-ian way but in a classic European democratic way, with so hard actions against neoliberals that no one for a century will even though a night to imitate them again.
Ukrainian war for instance is an emergency in certain terms:
- first for the people living there, on both sides, and that's more a tragedy than an emergency but not a new tragedy, it's start formally in 2013-14;
- secondly for countries that depend on Ukrainian and Russian's grains and poultry like Turkey, Middle-est in general, large part of Africa etc, that's new, but that's not a thing can be solved without ANNIHILATING NATO witch means that the EU en-mass say: we are out, we are interesting in entering CSTO and EAEU as partners, something not going to happen seen actual élites and mean population;
- an emergency because it's the first start of WWIII, witch is a tragedy by itself, and a special one since we have nukes and some in the NATO area think they can be used as offensive means not just as a last resort suicide since the '60s. Again the sole way to stop that is erasing neoliberals, not something going to happen;
- climate change is another tragedy, but not something can be changes by us in little time, we can only adapt, and Green New Deal is not really a way to adapt, it's just a way to replicate a Chinese society in the west, some tech aspects are good of course, but they can't work on scale and more important they can't work if not managed by States NOT by public-private criminal associations, pardon, partnerships, another things that can't be politically fixed soon;
- resources are a big issue that will bring all to war, as always, again not something solvable.
So what? So the sole rational choice I see, seen the mean population, is try to protect ourselves individually, hoping the new "20+years nazi-fasists regimes at war" will not last more than the old ones and that at the end when enough population revolt we still have means not only to revolt but to live correcting the errors of WWII revolts witch means annihilating not just the public puppets but the puppet masters.
Oh, BTW there is NO EU preparation to reduce the reliance on fossils, there is just a push toward impoverishing again and destroying again Europe switching from Russian sold resources to USA sold ones. If you really read the actual state of thing and you try very simple mental calculus that's the sole conclusion you can draw. Even if we start to put all industrial power in p.v. and eolic now we can't really reduce reliance on fossils for decades. We can't really run on p.v. or eolic for industry so without nuclear only fossils remain. As they remain for aviation. The logic path for EU is keeping buying Russian fossils (as it happen) but with a public trial and lifetime sentences to those in EU Energy and EU Commission who choose to transform an inter-State public market in a financial one in Holland, with Dutch TTf etc. clearly saying that now energy sector is back to the public and all managers and politicians involved will discover how hard Democratic justice can be. In the practical side pushing renewables, relocalization, etc BUT nothing done by the private under public-private partnerships. And pushing fusion research with ONLY public bodies involved.
I can't really know how terrible is the actual situations but in any case the sole hope for humans is changing capitalism, not in the Schwab-ian way but in a classic European democratic way, with so hard actions against neoliberals that no one for a century will even though a night to imitate them again.
This is near conspiratorial thinking...
...The US forced RU to attack Ukraine because EU might get a benefit from RU resources...
Let's just ignore Russian media and actions showing they are executing a full on genocide in Ukraine.
...The US forced RU to attack Ukraine because EU might get a benefit from RU resources...
Let's just ignore Russian media and actions showing they are executing a full on genocide in Ukraine.
It's definitively not, see the past: after WWII "the ally" promise not to expand to the est Europe, they breach the agreement with Berlin since the start, and they keep going. They have, it's now history, planned invasion and destruction of "Russia" since WWII [1], when they start putting nukes near Soviet Union the Soviets rightly respond putting nukes in Cuba and you know the history. You know what neoliberals (western, mostly but not only anglophone ideology + some Russians in that case) have done after URSS collapse. What you call that? Oh, just to corroborate with USA neoliberal official sources https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
About EU: we do have the most advanced tech of the world, but we do not have natural resources, the nearest, developed and vast potential partner is the Russian Federation, witch is geographically Europe till the Urals (so Moscow and most developed areas included) and we share a vast border, so no third party geopolitical tension can endanger our supply chain. In the last decades Russian Federation have try to offer the olive branch few times [2] but NATO (USA/UK) pressures stop them. In the meantime Russians have made the EuroAsiatic Union (EAEU) and we can complete it, commerce was flourishing etc.
Now? Just for Ukraine read the OSCE report about who have started the war, who are the criminal (well the most criminal, at least) and where arms came from: https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf also if you really follow the news you'll easy discover that vast majority of war crime reported on medias are classify as fake in few days, by western sources, like Italian TV showing a cut-scene from the game War Thunder stating that's the bombardment of Kiev, crying mothers sold as Ukrainian (true) omitting that's not a 2022 picture but one from 2014 of Russian-speaking Ukrainians mothers after Euromaidan nazi massacre so "one the other side" or the pregnant influencer "forced to live the maternity by the bomb" that declare just few days after that Azov nazis force her and other to leave because they took the hospital for military reasons etc. Oh, I've no doubt that there are crimes on both sides, that happen in all wars, but definitively the genocide I see is of Russian-speaking Ukrainians by nazi militia armed by NATO, and no I'm not a Putin fan. BTW just demand yourself why bomb a hospital, a theater etc if that's not used for military reasons, missiles have a price, an error can always happen, a systematic bombing means wasted gears so a nonsense.
I'm a nephew of decorated Italian Partisans from WWII I was trained from my childhood to spot nazis with and without uniforms, and these days I realize that Putin is a dictator, but the USA and UK are worst dictatorship then him, also against their own people interests, and being European my interest is on the opposite side of the front because my interest if form a real EU, not just a monetary one, a Democratic one, not a Barnum circle, having cheap and abundant Russian resources not skyrocketing prices before the war because EU neoliberals, son of those who have created original nazi and fascist regimes, want big profits against their own people interests, my interest is a Russian Federation detached from China because China need a war just to have food for it's enormous population and USA/UK need a war to counter China because loosing South America and the see dominance for them means being destroyed and unable to continue their cleptocratic policies so my interest is left the hitting each others while EU+EAEU remain aside an profit.
No conspiracy theory there just history, geopolitics and basic simple reasoning instead of slavishly and acritical trust of propaganda, from all sides.
[1] for instance
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/cold... https://www.thehistorypress.co.uk/articles/operation-unthink...
then
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Dropshot http://www.allworldwars.com/Dropshot%20-%20American%20Plan%2... https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2268796/a-declassified-milit...
[2] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65899 then https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-urges-vladimir... then https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210625-eu-leaders-rejec... followed by https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/25/kremlin-regrets-eu... and slightly before https://tass.com/politics/1342189
About EU: we do have the most advanced tech of the world, but we do not have natural resources, the nearest, developed and vast potential partner is the Russian Federation, witch is geographically Europe till the Urals (so Moscow and most developed areas included) and we share a vast border, so no third party geopolitical tension can endanger our supply chain. In the last decades Russian Federation have try to offer the olive branch few times [2] but NATO (USA/UK) pressures stop them. In the meantime Russians have made the EuroAsiatic Union (EAEU) and we can complete it, commerce was flourishing etc.
Now? Just for Ukraine read the OSCE report about who have started the war, who are the criminal (well the most criminal, at least) and where arms came from: https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf also if you really follow the news you'll easy discover that vast majority of war crime reported on medias are classify as fake in few days, by western sources, like Italian TV showing a cut-scene from the game War Thunder stating that's the bombardment of Kiev, crying mothers sold as Ukrainian (true) omitting that's not a 2022 picture but one from 2014 of Russian-speaking Ukrainians mothers after Euromaidan nazi massacre so "one the other side" or the pregnant influencer "forced to live the maternity by the bomb" that declare just few days after that Azov nazis force her and other to leave because they took the hospital for military reasons etc. Oh, I've no doubt that there are crimes on both sides, that happen in all wars, but definitively the genocide I see is of Russian-speaking Ukrainians by nazi militia armed by NATO, and no I'm not a Putin fan. BTW just demand yourself why bomb a hospital, a theater etc if that's not used for military reasons, missiles have a price, an error can always happen, a systematic bombing means wasted gears so a nonsense.
I'm a nephew of decorated Italian Partisans from WWII I was trained from my childhood to spot nazis with and without uniforms, and these days I realize that Putin is a dictator, but the USA and UK are worst dictatorship then him, also against their own people interests, and being European my interest is on the opposite side of the front because my interest if form a real EU, not just a monetary one, a Democratic one, not a Barnum circle, having cheap and abundant Russian resources not skyrocketing prices before the war because EU neoliberals, son of those who have created original nazi and fascist regimes, want big profits against their own people interests, my interest is a Russian Federation detached from China because China need a war just to have food for it's enormous population and USA/UK need a war to counter China because loosing South America and the see dominance for them means being destroyed and unable to continue their cleptocratic policies so my interest is left the hitting each others while EU+EAEU remain aside an profit.
No conspiracy theory there just history, geopolitics and basic simple reasoning instead of slavishly and acritical trust of propaganda, from all sides.
[1] for instance
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/cold... https://www.thehistorypress.co.uk/articles/operation-unthink...
then
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Dropshot http://www.allworldwars.com/Dropshot%20-%20American%20Plan%2... https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2268796/a-declassified-milit...
[2] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65899 then https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-urges-vladimir... then https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210625-eu-leaders-rejec... followed by https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/25/kremlin-regrets-eu... and slightly before https://tass.com/politics/1342189
I'm still trying to figure out how is it possible to be wary about USA propaganda yet also, even now, still buy Russian propaganda hook line and sinker !
Even though we rarely had a war where the side that is in the wrong was so clear cut ! And it's not like this war hasn't been ongoing for the last 8 years ! (And we still don't have any concrete proof that, say, the CIA was (directly) behind the Maidan massacre - in an age of WikiLeaks/Snowden (!!) - I mean, if Macron had ordered to open fire on the Gilet Jaunes manifestations killing a hundred, I would hope that a coup would have shortly followed, regardless of whether a significant fraction of the protesters were CIA agents !)
I guess it's some combination of "the enemy of my enemy of my friend", and the sheer lack of interest in most (?) EU media (but especially the French one?) in the ex-URSS, resulting in a lack of competent specialists, resulting in an astounding lack of understanding of the situation, after which Russian propaganda was quick to fill the resulting void (especially noticeable in the "alternative" medias like Agoravox since 2014).
Even though we rarely had a war where the side that is in the wrong was so clear cut ! And it's not like this war hasn't been ongoing for the last 8 years ! (And we still don't have any concrete proof that, say, the CIA was (directly) behind the Maidan massacre - in an age of WikiLeaks/Snowden (!!) - I mean, if Macron had ordered to open fire on the Gilet Jaunes manifestations killing a hundred, I would hope that a coup would have shortly followed, regardless of whether a significant fraction of the protesters were CIA agents !)
I guess it's some combination of "the enemy of my enemy of my friend", and the sheer lack of interest in most (?) EU media (but especially the French one?) in the ex-URSS, resulting in a lack of competent specialists, resulting in an astounding lack of understanding of the situation, after which Russian propaganda was quick to fill the resulting void (especially noticeable in the "alternative" medias like Agoravox since 2014).
> I'm still trying to figure out how is it possible to be wary about USA propaganda yet
Did you think OSCE publish Russian propaganda? The Atlantic Council? Rand corp? Because those are my cited sources... Beside that I'm not worried by USA propaganda but by propaganda in general and by the vast mass of vulnerable people that ingest it acritically: thanks to propaganda we already have had two world war, I think they was enough...
> Even though we rarely had a war where the side that is in the wrong was so clear cut !
Wars are done for interests, needs, not on moral basis there is no right or wrong side, just interest on one and another and also other sides. Best EU interest is the Russian side, best China and USA interest is keeping that war a long as possible to on one (USA/UK) side demolish a resurgent EU that was about to left NATO oppression and on the other (China) push Russian resources and military tech to China, witch means they'll be ready for WWIII in just few years.
> And it's not like this war hasn't been ongoing for the last 8 years !
OSCE report? It's from an EU official body, hard to say it's Russian propaganda... Or another example https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-s... just to add another I do not cite before. Or you prefer the Russie.NEI.Visions in English from the French IFRI to cite another definitively not putinian body? BTW you can find sources from The Diplomat, Foreign Policies and various others of the same kind, all you need is a honest web search...
> And we still don't have any concrete proof that, say, the CIA was (directly) behind the Maidan massacre
We have phone interceptions but it does not matter at all a single episode, what it matter is the macro level, witch means NATO expansion, NATO creation of nazi forces not even just in Ukraine but in all western EU, and not today but in few decades (did you remember op. Stay Behind, Aldo Moro killing etc? To cite some historical and well documented ones). We can't know the truth about a specific episode even if someone say it. We can instead know the global truth because at macro scale nothing can be really hidden for long.
> resulting in an astounding lack of understanding of the situation
I suggest you to try the mirror test: how can you say that you have a clear understatement while those who think different are caught in Russian propaganda? How many reasonably official source of information you have read, looked for? I mean public institutions not generic press of any kind and any country. How much you followed in the timeline the news stream? How much you know about Ukraine, just in history terms (did you actual Ukraine was a Soviet-made country from 1954?), did you know who manage Ukrainian infrastructures especially oil&gas ones? (hint: USA, UK and Holland companies, like for Kazakhstan). Try to honestly reflect on those aspects. Than tell your conclusion.
Oh, in evilness terms, did you remember the Iraq invasion based on claimed lies from some USA and UK élites about the Saddam mass destruction weapons that do not exists? Or the Afghanistan invasion based on the false claim they protect bin laden? Or the France ops in Libya when Qaddafi start to touch France-controlled CFA? Or Syria? Just to cite actual ones, but we can also came back to famous propaganda-made wars like Guatemala, the last strike of Eduard Bernays for the United Fruit co, those of Chiquita bananas between the rest.
Did you think OSCE publish Russian propaganda? The Atlantic Council? Rand corp? Because those are my cited sources... Beside that I'm not worried by USA propaganda but by propaganda in general and by the vast mass of vulnerable people that ingest it acritically: thanks to propaganda we already have had two world war, I think they was enough...
> Even though we rarely had a war where the side that is in the wrong was so clear cut !
Wars are done for interests, needs, not on moral basis there is no right or wrong side, just interest on one and another and also other sides. Best EU interest is the Russian side, best China and USA interest is keeping that war a long as possible to on one (USA/UK) side demolish a resurgent EU that was about to left NATO oppression and on the other (China) push Russian resources and military tech to China, witch means they'll be ready for WWIII in just few years.
> And it's not like this war hasn't been ongoing for the last 8 years !
OSCE report? It's from an EU official body, hard to say it's Russian propaganda... Or another example https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-s... just to add another I do not cite before. Or you prefer the Russie.NEI.Visions in English from the French IFRI to cite another definitively not putinian body? BTW you can find sources from The Diplomat, Foreign Policies and various others of the same kind, all you need is a honest web search...
> And we still don't have any concrete proof that, say, the CIA was (directly) behind the Maidan massacre
We have phone interceptions but it does not matter at all a single episode, what it matter is the macro level, witch means NATO expansion, NATO creation of nazi forces not even just in Ukraine but in all western EU, and not today but in few decades (did you remember op. Stay Behind, Aldo Moro killing etc? To cite some historical and well documented ones). We can't know the truth about a specific episode even if someone say it. We can instead know the global truth because at macro scale nothing can be really hidden for long.
> resulting in an astounding lack of understanding of the situation
I suggest you to try the mirror test: how can you say that you have a clear understatement while those who think different are caught in Russian propaganda? How many reasonably official source of information you have read, looked for? I mean public institutions not generic press of any kind and any country. How much you followed in the timeline the news stream? How much you know about Ukraine, just in history terms (did you actual Ukraine was a Soviet-made country from 1954?), did you know who manage Ukrainian infrastructures especially oil&gas ones? (hint: USA, UK and Holland companies, like for Kazakhstan). Try to honestly reflect on those aspects. Than tell your conclusion.
Oh, in evilness terms, did you remember the Iraq invasion based on claimed lies from some USA and UK élites about the Saddam mass destruction weapons that do not exists? Or the Afghanistan invasion based on the false claim they protect bin laden? Or the France ops in Libya when Qaddafi start to touch France-controlled CFA? Or Syria? Just to cite actual ones, but we can also came back to famous propaganda-made wars like Guatemala, the last strike of Eduard Bernays for the United Fruit co, those of Chiquita bananas between the rest.
The wrong side is the one killing civilians.
Putin's side is even more tied to fascists (even and especially across EU !) than the Ukrainian side...
I have a much better understanding than your average West European because I was born in Russia, am fluent in Russian, and have family roughly split between Russia and Ukraine (and for what that's worth, had a grandfather that actually fought Nazis - I can't really believe it, but I'm now glad that he didn't live to 2014 and to see this insanity).
And now I'm going to have to cut this discussion short because I have to try to reach my Ukrainian relatives again, which I'm having a hard time to, because cellphones have trouble working from bomb shelters, and they're even being shelled during the day these days.
Putin's side is even more tied to fascists (even and especially across EU !) than the Ukrainian side...
I have a much better understanding than your average West European because I was born in Russia, am fluent in Russian, and have family roughly split between Russia and Ukraine (and for what that's worth, had a grandfather that actually fought Nazis - I can't really believe it, but I'm now glad that he didn't live to 2014 and to see this insanity).
And now I'm going to have to cut this discussion short because I have to try to reach my Ukrainian relatives again, which I'm having a hard time to, because cellphones have trouble working from bomb shelters, and they're even being shelled during the day these days.
Re-read the history, start from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/nazis-based-th... one thing I've learnt from my grandparents was: élites who speak English are brother with whose who speak German, in the sense you can imaging.
Of course, that's does not means Putin isn't similarly a dictator, the the blackbird is black like the crow of course but actually Russians aren't ready for Democracy so unfortunately they haven't much choice. Back in the past when bolsheviks overthrown the Mensheviks (thanks to Kaiser money, via Sweden) was already clear that seeds of Democracy were not enough, for Russian Federation Putin now it's the sole option, the other one will being back to a new and correct Soviet Union but that's an utopia so they can just try to be back as an empire. That's is.
Similarly most EU citizens are pushed again toward nazi ideas, we are around the thirst 20-30 years of 1900, a new world war is "needed" and many civilians will be killed, NOT much by Russian army, far more by militia armed by the same cancers of humanity that crafted nazi-fascism before.
BTW I'm Italian but I have some Russian and Ukrainian friends with various political ideas, and some news: if you imaging that "cellphones have trouble working from bomb shelters" you are just spread propaganda for a very simple reason: Russian targets are unknown to us, but Russian strategy is not: they do not bomb anything like USA in the WWII or NATO thereafter, they want a country or part of it, not ruins, when they bomb hospitals they bomb military targets occupied by Azov, C14, Pravy Sektor, Svoboda, ... not because that's what their press say but because bombs are not cheap and they haven't the USA military-industry complex nourished by wars and reconstructions thereafter, so an error can happen, but nothing more than that for mere practical reasons. Bomb shelters beside these days does not exists anymore than in the USA and some abandoned in Swiss. They came from WWII kind of mass-bombing not today's one.
So please do not consider that a sterile polemics or a personal attack but from what you write I can be wrong of course, but I suspect you have absolutely no knowledge of what's going on in Ukraine nor in EU. That's perfectly legit, you probably just "trust the system", accepting propaganda press not that different than soviet Pravda, as reality, but on HN typically there are a cohort of people who look under the tree, no one is immune to propaganda, no one can really know the truth but dissecting news enough to understand what's real and what's manufactured at a certain level is easy.
Of course, that's does not means Putin isn't similarly a dictator, the the blackbird is black like the crow of course but actually Russians aren't ready for Democracy so unfortunately they haven't much choice. Back in the past when bolsheviks overthrown the Mensheviks (thanks to Kaiser money, via Sweden) was already clear that seeds of Democracy were not enough, for Russian Federation Putin now it's the sole option, the other one will being back to a new and correct Soviet Union but that's an utopia so they can just try to be back as an empire. That's is.
Similarly most EU citizens are pushed again toward nazi ideas, we are around the thirst 20-30 years of 1900, a new world war is "needed" and many civilians will be killed, NOT much by Russian army, far more by militia armed by the same cancers of humanity that crafted nazi-fascism before.
BTW I'm Italian but I have some Russian and Ukrainian friends with various political ideas, and some news: if you imaging that "cellphones have trouble working from bomb shelters" you are just spread propaganda for a very simple reason: Russian targets are unknown to us, but Russian strategy is not: they do not bomb anything like USA in the WWII or NATO thereafter, they want a country or part of it, not ruins, when they bomb hospitals they bomb military targets occupied by Azov, C14, Pravy Sektor, Svoboda, ... not because that's what their press say but because bombs are not cheap and they haven't the USA military-industry complex nourished by wars and reconstructions thereafter, so an error can happen, but nothing more than that for mere practical reasons. Bomb shelters beside these days does not exists anymore than in the USA and some abandoned in Swiss. They came from WWII kind of mass-bombing not today's one.
So please do not consider that a sterile polemics or a personal attack but from what you write I can be wrong of course, but I suspect you have absolutely no knowledge of what's going on in Ukraine nor in EU. That's perfectly legit, you probably just "trust the system", accepting propaganda press not that different than soviet Pravda, as reality, but on HN typically there are a cohort of people who look under the tree, no one is immune to propaganda, no one can really know the truth but dissecting news enough to understand what's real and what's manufactured at a certain level is easy.
"This Story is Unavailable in your region"
I get the message both directly & via archive.ph
https://archive.ph/Bq8af
I get the message both directly & via archive.ph
https://archive.ph/Bq8af
here is a direct link https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-08/ukrain...
Business as usual. Make a big noise and bang your fist at the podium, then ignore it behind the scenes. At least Europe won't run out of gas.
I have been watching the sanction game for 45 days now. Almost every day, we have new sanctions ... bigger and better, and this time we will fix them. For first 2 weeks I ignored it, because it takes time to get your act together (although I am sure CIA has a cookbook somewhere so if they really wanted to do it, they could).
But after those 2 weeks, I have lost faith. Everything seems to be a charade and the next round of sanctions get applied after 1) some oligarch is exposed, or 2) some major war crime news comes out. I am sure we can go another 100 rounds of sanctions. Quite sad.
But after those 2 weeks, I have lost faith. Everything seems to be a charade and the next round of sanctions get applied after 1) some oligarch is exposed, or 2) some major war crime news comes out. I am sure we can go another 100 rounds of sanctions. Quite sad.
Does the world stop doing business with the US each time they invade a country, throw a coup, or is revealed to spy on literally everything and everyone, including its allies?
No? Huh, I wonder why. Maybe it's their bullet sucking vacuum tanks that rebuild hospitals and schools. Or the democracy building aircraft carriers and the polio curing laser guided payloads they are so proud of.
Freedom. Democracy. Values.
No? Huh, I wonder why. Maybe it's their bullet sucking vacuum tanks that rebuild hospitals and schools. Or the democracy building aircraft carriers and the polio curing laser guided payloads they are so proud of.
Freedom. Democracy. Values.
Remember, citizen: We were always at war with Oceania.
I am friends with a couple where one is from Ukraine, and the other is from Moscow.
Even though the Russian has been against the war since at least 2015, when I first met him, I should totally cut my ties with him and actively try to sabotage his life because that's what I've been told by the good guys across the Atlantic because their actions are not self serving at all.
Man, do I need moral guidance
Even though the Russian has been against the war since at least 2015, when I first met him, I should totally cut my ties with him and actively try to sabotage his life because that's what I've been told by the good guys across the Atlantic because their actions are not self serving at all.
Man, do I need moral guidance
There's a FAR LARGER backdoor that allows oil, minerals, etc. to flow in far larger quantities to the USA.
psssssst!! but yeah, buy cheap, sell expensive to Europe, while claiming high ethics and all for their independence :D typical win-win-win (just for us though..)
It is outstanding: you can't deny war profiters the balls. It is genius
When was war about something else?
As long as the people in Germany have less than three cars per family the need for gasoline is not going anywhere.
I think it's worth noting that blended fuels aren't simply a way to dodge sanctions. Fuel from different sources has different properties -- most notably Sulfur levels -- and Shell might have been blending them for decades for purely technical reasons.
If India, China and all of Africa find a way to buy Russian oil and then sell theirs to Europe at an inflated price, everyone will be happy.
I read the US import of Russian oil went up in India news clips shared online, is it true?
I might have missed it but how is the Russian oil being imported to Latvia (EU state, sanctions against Russia) in the first place? Is it because it is not 'sold' until after the blending or some such move?
What you're missing is the fact that EU sanctions specifically exempt Russian gas, oil and coal.
[deleted]
I don't get the point of this. As the article points out, it would be perfectly legal for Shell to sell refined oil products of 100% Russian origin. Why do they go to the length of blending it to 49.99% Russian origin and expect to get away with calling this "Latvian", in a day and age where far more clandestine operations become public knowledge in practically no time with p>0.99 (remember, Russian troop movements prior to the war were reported practically in real time with satellite imagery, something Putin surely didn't appreciate)?
Two words: virtue signal.
can the US confiscate the oil?
What a mad phantasy... Undermining your closest allies' economy to win the war?
And, no, it cannot confiscate the oil and, even if it would, most of the energy comes to Europe in the form of natural gas, which is moved by pipeline. So, yes, the US can stop that by bombing Austria or Poland.
It's obviously a bad place to be in, strategically, for Europe to be somewhat reliant on Russian fuels. But you should note that current sanctions are already far more costly for EU countries than for the US: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/f/2/csm_mi2022...
For Latvia, it's 64x more expensive. Even for Germany, it's factor 10.
And, no, it cannot confiscate the oil and, even if it would, most of the energy comes to Europe in the form of natural gas, which is moved by pipeline. So, yes, the US can stop that by bombing Austria or Poland.
It's obviously a bad place to be in, strategically, for Europe to be somewhat reliant on Russian fuels. But you should note that current sanctions are already far more costly for EU countries than for the US: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/f/2/csm_mi2022...
For Latvia, it's 64x more expensive. Even for Germany, it's factor 10.
And still all 3 Baltic states still agree that more significant measures must be imposed immediately, while most of the Western Europe is in denial.
Nobody is denying anything, except people claiming these are easy decisions to make and some approach a totally obvious choice. Finland & Germany have changed more drastically than either one has ever before, and more than anyone else in this situation. The Baltic states can also take a 20 % hit to GDP and they'll be fine, because they make up a small fraction of EU GDP and it would be easy (and right) to help them. The same happening in France, Germany, or Italy will not only hurt citizen in those countries, which would be uncomfortable but not disastrous. It would likely shut down every manufacturing on the continent that's more complicated than fish & chips.
And that’s exactly why humankind is forever bound to repeat the same mistakes over and over. We have all the information in the world and yet politicians still think that this time is different and you can appease dictators and they’ll just stop. But once they do realize, it’s already too late and it ends up costing many magnitudes more.
It’s always about choosing short term gain over long term thinking. Can’t wait to see when global warming really starts to hurt.
It’s always about choosing short term gain over long term thinking. Can’t wait to see when global warming really starts to hurt.
Nobody is appeasing anyone. They are trying to keep the lights on while everyone scrambles to find other sources of energy. These are the largest sanctions ever, already, oil and gas are on track to be included within six months, they have been impounding yachts left and right, delivering offensive weapons on previously unknown scales, etc.
Would the US actually overtly bomb one of these countries? Or just support domestic malcontents to bomb the pipelines?
On what grounds? And how exactly would that work? Through piracy in international waters? Or will the US liberate ports in Russia, Latvia or the Netherlands?
They’ve done that with Venezuela. Like capturing a tanker going from Iran to Venezuela, even though they theoretically should be able to trade.
US sanctions usually work by denying violators access to US dollar flow, US customers, or just punitive taxes on US operations.
So even if they can’t go and grab the oil, they could force the issue: you buy this pretend-not-Russian oil, very well, next time someone pay you in dollars, we take a 75% cut.
But in the current climate, they would like to agree that ahead of time with Europeans who are right now dependant on Russia hydrocarbons for dear life.
So even if they can’t go and grab the oil, they could force the issue: you buy this pretend-not-Russian oil, very well, next time someone pay you in dollars, we take a 75% cut.
But in the current climate, they would like to agree that ahead of time with Europeans who are right now dependant on Russia hydrocarbons for dear life.
Sounds like an easy way for Europeans to get rid of the dollar as a world currency - they would just doing business with third parties in Euros then. Which would have catastrophic consequences on the US economy.
The dollar is so engrained in the world economy, it’s a pipe dream. Makes me giggle whenever people ask if the hegemony of the dollar is over. No.
The only thing the US is going to achieve is finally putting a wooden stake through the heart of the dollar as the default world trading currency.
Now that the world has witnessed them using the dollar as a weapon to deny other countries their sovereignity, they (China, India, Iran, Africa) will be working 24/7 to build an alternative payment system.
And a good day it will be too.
Now that the world has witnessed them using the dollar as a weapon to deny other countries their sovereignity, they (China, India, Iran, Africa) will be working 24/7 to build an alternative payment system.
And a good day it will be too.
The US hasn't figured out that cancel culture on twitter doesn't scale up to nation-states very well. 'Go build your own twitter' is now becoming 'Go build your own international banking interchange' to powers who are very excited to have that exact opportunity.
Oh yes, what a great day to have the default international fiat currency to be control by the likes of China.
So far China hasn't shown a penchant for destabilizing foreign countries for its own ends. Sure, they brutally oppress their own citizens but their foreign policy outside of border disputes has been non-interventionist.
You need to bone up on your history of China bud: Tibet, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia were all direct interventions by China.
Have you heard of the Sprately islands?
Have you heard of the Sprately islands?
But I thought competition is good and leads to a better outcome for customers?
What competition? If India and China align, we'll be dependent upon their currency.
You do realize that India and China have been locked in a bitter border dispute for decades, right? One that periodically results in casualties on both sides? The idea that China and India are going to meaningfully align can only come from wilful ignorance. Or perhaps the You are either with us or against us binary thinking has become pervasive.
You do realize was replying to a hypothetical "they (China, India, Iran, Africa) will be working 24/7 to build an alternative payment system"
You could argue that it would be a very good thing to have currency competition. In that sense it would increase possible efficiencies, and reduce the need for America to be the world police. If you believe this, then what is going on is good for future stability.
If Ukraine will won a case in a USA court, then Russian oil can be confiscated by USA government (for USA government).
they sure can try and if they do .... consequences
Reading through the comment I'm both amazed and appalled about how people are mostly looking at things from the money-perspective, ignoring that people can less and less afford to heat, cook ... or even food.
How disconnected from both reality and humanity can someone be?
Freeze for Freedom!
Starve for Freedom!
Also noteworthy is, that people seem to believe the sanctions are harming the people of Russia, or its economy, more than it harms Europe or the rest of the world. ... lol
Anyone thinking these sanctions are a good idea is completely wacko, out of this world. Politicians shit on us people for bullshit reasons with predictable outcomes, none of which are harming Russia (economy/people/government) significantly.
How disconnected from both reality and humanity can someone be?
Freeze for Freedom!
Starve for Freedom!
Also noteworthy is, that people seem to believe the sanctions are harming the people of Russia, or its economy, more than it harms Europe or the rest of the world. ... lol
Anyone thinking these sanctions are a good idea is completely wacko, out of this world. Politicians shit on us people for bullshit reasons with predictable outcomes, none of which are harming Russia (economy/people/government) significantly.
What do you propose then? Let Russia do whatever destruction and war crimes and genocides it wants? Or start a nuclear war? Those are the three options on the table, and the EU and US are taking the middle way. Yes, the sanctions are hurting Europe too, but their impact is enormous for the Russian economy and people.
I bet Mr P lives in a country that's not high up on Putin's bucket list. It's easy to call others idiots from that relative safety.
> I bet Mr P lives in a country that's not high up on Putin's bucket list.
I guessed I missed the memo. Which countries are on this list?
Belarus? It's already a Russian puppet state.
Georgia? Been there, done that.
The Turkic states? They don't really fit into the Rus ethnostate mythos.
The Baltics? They are already in NATO.
I guessed I missed the memo. Which countries are on this list?
Belarus? It's already a Russian puppet state.
Georgia? Been there, done that.
The Turkic states? They don't really fit into the Rus ethnostate mythos.
The Baltics? They are already in NATO.
> I guessed I missed the memo. Which countries are on this list?
Who knows except the man himself. That's the problem right there.
Belarus? Why not make it official?
Georgia? Maybe they deserve another round?
Baltics? It'll be interesting to see how much effort NATO puts in over those. Certainly not nukes. Can turn them into rubble to prove a point, if nothing else.
What about Hungary and Poland?
Also, aren't you forgetting a couple of countries, scroll up on Google Maps...
Who knows except the man himself. That's the problem right there.
Belarus? Why not make it official?
Georgia? Maybe they deserve another round?
Baltics? It'll be interesting to see how much effort NATO puts in over those. Certainly not nukes. Can turn them into rubble to prove a point, if nothing else.
What about Hungary and Poland?
Also, aren't you forgetting a couple of countries, scroll up on Google Maps...
> Who knows except the man himself. That's the problem right there.
But you do know that there is a list?
And after being routed by the Ukrainians, the assumption is that Russia will then invade not just former Soviet republics but also other countries? That's an interesting take.
But you do know that there is a list?
And after being routed by the Ukrainians, the assumption is that Russia will then invade not just former Soviet republics but also other countries? That's an interesting take.
Look at it this way: the man has shown he doesn't have respect for borders of other countries, he doesn't care about not having friends in the west for the foreseeable future, he doesn't mind expending men and material. He sees something he wants and thinks he can get. Why would he not try, former Soviet country or not?
> But you do know that there is a list?
Well obviously I can't know, and it's not the point. The point is, with how things have developed, you have to assume that there is a list. It's hard to know who exactly would be on it, but you can make some good guesses who probably aren't.
> But you do know that there is a list?
Well obviously I can't know, and it's not the point. The point is, with how things have developed, you have to assume that there is a list. It's hard to know who exactly would be on it, but you can make some good guesses who probably aren't.
So i suppose it is the same here, EU are way too dependent on fossil fuel from Russia, stopping everything right now = some families won't have energy to heat their homes, very important these days since EU got hit with a cold wave
Also stopping everything right now mean no way to get the food industry to run properly and farmers to secure their production for next year
People die in Ukraine, so but let's not add more death on top of them because of cold and famine
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/ukraine-sets-ne...