Eric Rosenfeld Talking LTCM, Ten Years Laterpaul.kedrosky.com9 points·by john7·17 năm trước·1 comments
john7·16 năm trước·discussNo, Bayesian decision theory does not allow you to reason in that way.Suppose the amounts in the envelopes are A and B. A Bayesian would say:Prob(I have A) = 1/2 and Prob(I have B) = 1/2The expected gain from switching is:Prob(I have A)x(what I'd gain from switching = B-A) + Prob(I have B)x(what I'd gain from switching = A-B)which is: 1/2 x (B-A) + 1/2 x (A-B) = 0
john7·16 năm trước·discussWhy not to read more books:http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/schopenhauer/arthur/lit/chap...
john7·17 năm trước·discussHaving someone else do my laundry for about a dollar a pound. No more buying detergent, waiting around, having to find change if you don't have your own washer/dryer, loading/unloading, folding, etc.