Yes, Dario has publicly stated that models are already profitable if you exclude R&D for the next model.
Even if that’s not true, given that hardware and software efficiency gains can be expected to continue it’s likely that this is the most expensive the current level of intelligence will ever be.
The frontier models may increase in price, but only because they’re also more capable. If you hold intelligence constant, price should fall over time.
It’s nothing like seeing with my eyes, and it’s nothing like dreaming.
When I “see” it is abstract. There are impressions and sensations. I can recall the qualities of something - even the visual qualities - but it doesn’t feel like sight.
Can you remember what something smells like? I can recall a foul smell, but I don’t recoil because it doesn’t actually feel like smelling. Still, I have an impression of the smell. Sight works the same for me.
I’ve interrogated people about this but can never get a straight answer.
——
“So you can really see things in your head when your eyes are closed?”
Yeah!
“And it’s as though you’re seeing the object in front of you?”
Yeah, you don’t have that?
“So it’s like you’re really seeing it? It’s the sensation of sight?“
Well… it’s kind of different. I’m not really seeing it.
——
…and around we go.
Personally, I can see images when I dream, but I don’t see anything at all if I’m conscious and closing my eyes.
I can recite the qualities of an object, and this generates impressions of the object in my head, but it’s not really seeing. It’s vibe seeing.
It might be helpful for intuiting the structure of a program. Imagine if you had to read code all on a single line, with newlines represented with \n.
I can get the feel of a piece of code just by looking at it. Even if you blurred the image, just the shape of the lines of code conveys a lot of information.
My primary email domain is a .me. Never have problems with web forms. It can be more difficult to communicate verbally, so when saying it to non-technical folks I preface it with “my email is a bit weird” and then spell it out slowly. Young people seem to get it more easily.
I also have an email on a .email domain, I have seen it occasionally get rejected by web forms. .party would likely have similar issues.
Every lucid dream I have becomes a nightmare. When I suddenly gain consciousness in a dream I begin to panic and the atmosphere turns sinister.
The last time this happened it turned into some kind of sleep paralysis where I became aware of my physical body but was unable to move as I crossfaded between dream and reality.
My understanding is that Waymo is applying specialized centimeter-scale mapping and lidar to achieve superior results.
In contrast, Tesla is using dumb cameras and just dumping boatloads of data into their model. It’s a more general solution. Maybe the reference doesn’t fit perfectly - the model architecture is likely similar under the hood - but there’s some analogy there.
Tesla FSD already works everywhere, even on unpaved roads. It just doesn’t work as well as Waymo.
Waymo works very well, just not in as many places as Tesla.
You might bet on Waymo because they have a fully working product already, but I’m betting on Tesla because of the vast amount of training data they are collecting. There’s a bitter lesson here.