Microsoft and OpenAI's close partnership shows signs of fraying(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
Microsoft and OpenAI's close partnership shows signs of fraying
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/technology/microsoft-openai-partnership-deal.html
521 comments
https://archive.ph/Bas23
While technical AI and LLMs are not something I’m well versed in. So as I sit on the sidelines and see the current proliferation of AI startups I’m starting to wonder where the moats are outside of access to raw computing power. Open AI seemed to have a massive lead in this space but that lead seems to be shrinking every day.
Fun watching this all unfold.
I am starting to suspect that LLMs, short term for a few years, will end up mostly having value as assistants to experts in their fields who know how to prompt and evaluate output.
I see an ocean of startups doing things like ‘AI accounting systems’ that scare me a little. I just don’t feel good having LLM based systems making unsupervised important decisions.
I do love designing and writing software with LLMs, but that is supervised activity that save me a ton of time. I also enjoy doing fun things with advanced voice mode for ChatGPT, like practicing speaking in French - again, a supervised activity.
re: ownership of IP: I find the idea hilarious that by OpenAI declaring ‘AGI achieved!’ that Microsoft might get cut out of IP rights it has supposedly paid for.
I am starting to suspect that LLMs, short term for a few years, will end up mostly having value as assistants to experts in their fields who know how to prompt and evaluate output.
I see an ocean of startups doing things like ‘AI accounting systems’ that scare me a little. I just don’t feel good having LLM based systems making unsupervised important decisions.
I do love designing and writing software with LLMs, but that is supervised activity that save me a ton of time. I also enjoy doing fun things with advanced voice mode for ChatGPT, like practicing speaking in French - again, a supervised activity.
re: ownership of IP: I find the idea hilarious that by OpenAI declaring ‘AGI achieved!’ that Microsoft might get cut out of IP rights it has supposedly paid for.
Does OpenAI have any fundamental advantage beyond brand recognition?
OpenAI would deserve to get dumped by MS. Just like "the boss" dumped everyone, including his own principles.
Maybe that's why Sam Altman is so eager to get billions and build his own datacenters.
Maybe that's why Sam Altman is so eager to get billions and build his own datacenters.
It's 100% unsurprising that two companies that aren't completely controlled by the same investors are having friendship issues
For folks who are skeptical about OpenAI's potential, I think Brad Gerstner does a really good job representing the bull case for them (his firm Altimeter was a major investor in their recent round).
- They reached their current revenue of ~$5B about 2.5 years faster than Google and about 4.5 years faster than Facebook
- Their valuation to forward revenue (based on current growth) is inline with where Google and Facebook IPO'd
He explains it all much better than I could type - https://youtu.be/ePfNAKopT20?si=kX4I-uE0xDeAaWXN&t=80
- They reached their current revenue of ~$5B about 2.5 years faster than Google and about 4.5 years faster than Facebook
- Their valuation to forward revenue (based on current growth) is inline with where Google and Facebook IPO'd
He explains it all much better than I could type - https://youtu.be/ePfNAKopT20?si=kX4I-uE0xDeAaWXN&t=80
why would teh relationship fray ? when microsoft has openAI by the balls. They just don't own it "legally" due to monopoly concerns from DOJ. But they own it. Remember microsoft is entitled to 49% of OpenAI's profits till they recoup their investment.
That's like the protection fee you pay to the mafia boss.
i remember satya saying “we have all the rights and capabilities” once microsoft believed they owned sam.
not a healthy dynamic.
not a healthy dynamic.
New York Times is suing Open AI... Take all this conjecture with a grain of salt... There's alllloooottt of hearsay in this article.
>OpenAI plans to loose $5 billion this year
Let that sink in for anyone that has incorporated Chatgpt in their work routines to the point their normal skills start to atrophy. Imagine in 2 years time OpenAI goes bust and MS gets all the IP. Now you can't really do your work without ChatGPT, but it cost has been brought up to how much it really costs to run. Maybe $2k per month per person? And you get about 1h of use per day for the money too...
I've been saying for ages, being a luditite and abstaining from using AI is not the answer (no one is tiling the fields with oxen anymore either). But it is crucial to at the very least retain 50% of capability hosted models like Chatgpt offer locally.
Let that sink in for anyone that has incorporated Chatgpt in their work routines to the point their normal skills start to atrophy. Imagine in 2 years time OpenAI goes bust and MS gets all the IP. Now you can't really do your work without ChatGPT, but it cost has been brought up to how much it really costs to run. Maybe $2k per month per person? And you get about 1h of use per day for the money too...
I've been saying for ages, being a luditite and abstaining from using AI is not the answer (no one is tiling the fields with oxen anymore either). But it is crucial to at the very least retain 50% of capability hosted models like Chatgpt offer locally.
I'm betting against OpenAI. Sam Altman has proven himself and his company untrustworthy. In long running games, untrustworthy players lose out.
If you disagree, I would argue you have a very sad view of the world, where truth and cooperation are inferior to lies and manipulation.
If you disagree, I would argue you have a very sad view of the world, where truth and cooperation are inferior to lies and manipulation.
How come I rarely see news about Anthropic? Aren’t they the closest competitor to ChatGPT with Claude? Or is LLama just so good that all the other inference providers without own products (Groq, Cerebras) are equally interesting right now?
Microsoft's goal here is to slowly extract every bit of unique ML capability out of OpenAI (note the multiple mentions about IP and security wrt MSFT employees working with OpenAI) so that they can compete with Google to put ML features in their products.
When they know they have all the crown jewels, they will reduce then eliminate their support of OpenAI. This was, is, and will be a strategic action by Satya.
"Embrace, extend, and extinguish". We're in the second stage now.
When they know they have all the crown jewels, they will reduce then eliminate their support of OpenAI. This was, is, and will be a strategic action by Satya.
"Embrace, extend, and extinguish". We're in the second stage now.
Who initiated this story, and what is their goal?
Both MS and Altman are famous for manipulation.
(Is it background to negotiations with each other? Or one party signaling in response to issues that analysts already raised? Distancing for antitrust? Distancing for other partnerships? Some competitor of both?)
Both MS and Altman are famous for manipulation.
(Is it background to negotiations with each other? Or one party signaling in response to issues that analysts already raised? Distancing for antitrust? Distancing for other partnerships? Some competitor of both?)
So the plan is to make AI not-evil by doing it with Microsoft and Oracle?
M$ is just having a "Oh I just bought Twitter for how much?" moment.
I'm calling it right now: there's a Microsoft/OpenAI breakup imminent (over ownership, rights, GTM etc) that's going to be extremely contested and cause OpenAI to go into a Stability AI type tailspin.
Stay for the end and the hilarious idea that OpenAI’s board could declare one day that they’ve created AGI simply to weasel out of their contract with Microsoft.
This reporting style seems unusual. Haven't noticed it before...(listing the number of people):
- according to four people familiar with the talks ...
- according to interviews with 19 people familiar with the relationship ...
- according to five people with knowledge of his comments.
- according to two people familiar with Microsoft’s plans.
- according to five people familiar with the relationship ...
- according to two people familiar with the call.
- according to seven people familiar with the discussions.
- six people with knowledge of the change said...
- according to two people familiar with the company’s plan.
- according to two people familiar with the meeting...
- according to three people familiar with the relationship.Sam is a scary good guy. But I’ve also learned to never underestimate Microsoft. They’ve been playing the game a long long time.
This is NYT, so there’s about 95% chance they made it all up for clicks. And you’re giving them clicks.