S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010(sfchronicle.com)
sfchronicle.com
S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-population-fell-6-3-most-in-nation-to-17199403.php
423 comments
If you compare rent trends of SF vs NYC or LA
https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/san-francisco-ca
https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/new-york-ny
https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/los-angeles-ca
You'll notice a huge difference between in SF and the other cities. Rent prices still hasn't gone back to pre pandemic level.
https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/san-francisco-ca
https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/new-york-ny
https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/los-angeles-ca
You'll notice a huge difference between in SF and the other cities. Rent prices still hasn't gone back to pre pandemic level.
I think remote work is often understated in reasons people move away. When you go into the office every day, it's pretty obvious that you have to live in whatever city you live in. But with remote work, the question becomes "if I don't have to live here, do I want to keep living here". For many (including myself), the answer was a definitive NO.
Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime, the high rent, and all these super visible indicators and while I'm sure that factored into the decisions of some, for many it was that they just wanted a change and got the golden opportunity to do so.
EDIT: It's not even that one may even "want a change", it's when you're presented with the opportunity to make a change, the gears in your head start turning as to what options you have at your disposal. I would imagine many people that moved had previously no intention to but just got the opportunity and decided to take it while it lasted.
Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime, the high rent, and all these super visible indicators and while I'm sure that factored into the decisions of some, for many it was that they just wanted a change and got the golden opportunity to do so.
EDIT: It's not even that one may even "want a change", it's when you're presented with the opportunity to make a change, the gears in your head start turning as to what options you have at your disposal. I would imagine many people that moved had previously no intention to but just got the opportunity and decided to take it while it lasted.
As someone who still enjoys SF and wants to keep living here, I read this as great news since I expected rents to decrease by a similar amount.
But I just checked my apartment's website and it seems like if anything the rents have slightly increased compared to the price I renewed at last year!? Obviously this is a sample size of 1 and doesn't reflect the overall market.
Curious if anyone else has real data on rent price trends. Is it just my apartment or is this a case of the market staying irrational for longer than I'd have hoped?
EDIT: data was provided in another thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31533492
But I just checked my apartment's website and it seems like if anything the rents have slightly increased compared to the price I renewed at last year!? Obviously this is a sample size of 1 and doesn't reflect the overall market.
Curious if anyone else has real data on rent price trends. Is it just my apartment or is this a case of the market staying irrational for longer than I'd have hoped?
EDIT: data was provided in another thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31533492
Anyone know stats on NYC? I'm having trouble understanding the current true state wrt to apartment rental pricing: many people left during Covid but I'm not quite sure if many of those in fact returned.
Furthermore, it would seem as though rental inventory is quite low or at least demand is through the roof (typically one needs to be ready to sign on the spot) with little to no room to shop-around. Prices are also quite high, I understand we have been in a recent high inflation regime but I just can't help but think the apartment rental market isn't as transparent as it was say, 3+ years ago.
Furthermore, it would seem as though rental inventory is quite low or at least demand is through the roof (typically one needs to be ready to sign on the spot) with little to no room to shop-around. Prices are also quite high, I understand we have been in a recent high inflation regime but I just can't help but think the apartment rental market isn't as transparent as it was say, 3+ years ago.
In the first year of COVID. I can't comment about how SF is faring these days, but LA also cleared out that first year.
But this year, people came roaring back. The average rent increase in my neighborhood was over 20%. The competition for rental units in some buildings is intense enough that potential tenants either sign a rental agreement on the spot or lose the unit to someone else willing to sign, and at least one of the apartment buildings on my block has a waitlist.
(Also interesting to note that the city of LA was not one of the top cities in terms of population loss per the Census, but several suburban cities in LA County, like Torrance, were on the list.)
But this year, people came roaring back. The average rent increase in my neighborhood was over 20%. The competition for rental units in some buildings is intense enough that potential tenants either sign a rental agreement on the spot or lose the unit to someone else willing to sign, and at least one of the apartment buildings on my block has a waitlist.
(Also interesting to note that the city of LA was not one of the top cities in terms of population loss per the Census, but several suburban cities in LA County, like Torrance, were on the list.)
So many houses in my SF neighborhood are currently empty. They're single family homes so I'm not sure of the impact on the overall population, but it's been weird around here.
- For sale and empty.
- Full renovations. Guessing more than half are flipping them, given the speed which construction started after sale.
- Investors buying homes and keeping them empty.
- For sale and empty.
- Full renovations. Guessing more than half are flipping them, given the speed which construction started after sale.
- Investors buying homes and keeping them empty.
With even hybrid work models your living a better life living up in Sac and driving down once a week.
This is a good thing. People should vote with their feet.
This is a good thing. People should vote with their feet.
According to the article, Manhattan lost 6.6% (that is, even more) in the same timeframe.
Manhattan is a much closer comparable to SF than all of NYC, the lines just happen to be drawn differently.
Manhattan is a much closer comparable to SF than all of NYC, the lines just happen to be drawn differently.
SF is probably hit the hardest by WFH. If you lived and worked in the city you probably had a pretty good commute, so you're not getting the biggest benefit. And while I know it's a less common preference on HN, a lot of people enjoy going in to a lively office and occasionally grabbing drinks with your coworkers after work. It's a great way to make new friends. But with WFH there's a prisoners dilemma where no-one goes in because no-one goes in. Hard to justify living in one of the most expensive cities in the world at that point.
As a side note, I've been reading a lot of comments like the one below describing SF as a "nightmarish hellscape" and I just want to caution people to not read into things too much. I've spent a lot of time in both SF and Seattle, and while there's specific streets you want to avoid, and you can (rarely) run into weird or disturbed people in other areas (like most major cities) overall they're lovely places if you can afford them.
As a side note, I've been reading a lot of comments like the one below describing SF as a "nightmarish hellscape" and I just want to caution people to not read into things too much. I've spent a lot of time in both SF and Seattle, and while there's specific streets you want to avoid, and you can (rarely) run into weird or disturbed people in other areas (like most major cities) overall they're lovely places if you can afford them.
I know a few folks who moved to States like Colorado, Delaware, etc from Bay Area once their employers officially went fully remote. They all said Bay Area was unaffordable for them. These are mid-to-senior level tech guys, though not in FAANG companies.
For SF specific data on housing and zoning I highly highly recommend http://socketsite.com. Such a thorough and great resource! I only wish more cities had something like it!
This is mostly an artifact. SF proper is a very small area in a metro area having around 8.5 million people. If you look carefully at a similar size urban core in other metro areas then you will see similar results.
Especially with the advent of Starlink, you can literally work anywhere and still have reliable enough Internet to make a six figure income.
I think in the two scenarios you can focus on either the positives or the negatives.
When population goes up: positive - the area is vibrant economically; negative - rent is spiraling upwards out of control
When population goes down: positive - rent is finally affordable; negative - the area is falling apart existentially
I think the media in general has found the negative spin sells better.
When population goes up: positive - the area is vibrant economically; negative - rent is spiraling upwards out of control
When population goes down: positive - rent is finally affordable; negative - the area is falling apart existentially
I think the media in general has found the negative spin sells better.
Those that have "made it" are moving out of SF and the young and hungry are moving in. SF has seen a wave of Gen Z inbound recently. I'll take that trade anytime.
"the number of rental applications by people who fall into Gen Z (defined as those born between 1997 and 2012) have increased by 21% in the past year. Meanwhile, as we just discussed, rental applications from every single other generation have been lessening. Millennials, for instance, saw an 8% decrease in rental activity...
Between 2020 and 2021, people who fall into Generation Z were filling out 21% more leases nationwide, as compared with the year before. When that search is narrowed to San Francisco, Rentcafé says those 20-somethings had a 101% increase in rental applications. They now make up more than a fifth of all people looking to lease in SF."
https://sfist.com/2022/03/22/san-francisco-is-getting-younge...
"the number of rental applications by people who fall into Gen Z (defined as those born between 1997 and 2012) have increased by 21% in the past year. Meanwhile, as we just discussed, rental applications from every single other generation have been lessening. Millennials, for instance, saw an 8% decrease in rental activity...
Between 2020 and 2021, people who fall into Generation Z were filling out 21% more leases nationwide, as compared with the year before. When that search is narrowed to San Francisco, Rentcafé says those 20-somethings had a 101% increase in rental applications. They now make up more than a fifth of all people looking to lease in SF."
https://sfist.com/2022/03/22/san-francisco-is-getting-younge...
It will be interesting to see how much of this is Bay Area spread.
We've had a huge number of people move to Santa Cruz, for example, so I've wondered how much of this might be the Bay Area getting broader instead of smaller.
We've had a huge number of people move to Santa Cruz, for example, so I've wondered how much of this might be the Bay Area getting broader instead of smaller.
Price people out of living somewhere and the market will eventually react.
Interestingly the inflation in SF, and Bay in general is less than national average, and much less than hot areas like Miami.
I guess soon it will balance off
I guess soon it will balance off
The most regrettable thing is that it's those who bear the most responsibility for the city being less desirable (in a multitude of unrelated but compounding ways) are the ones with the most ability to just move elsewhere. I wish these people had to sleep in the bed they made.
People vote if SF has a good or bad government, by voting with their feet. Cities across the nation can have people leave due to remote work. This isn't remote work.
This is a vote on if SF's government is great or bad.
This is a vote on if SF's government is great or bad.
Could this be a potential source of a housing bubble collapse?
I mean yes? Why would anybody want to live in SF?
Is there a lot of empty housing then?
Makes sense.
First summer I rented in the area (around that time), I had to use AirBnB to find something halfway affordable, and I was basically using it more as a trust broker.
The unit I paid 1500 a month for, literally a bedroom in a dog dander riddled home with a tiny shared kitchen.
I looked, and within 3 years the same place would have been more like 4500/month.
(This was walkable to Castro street, but so is a lot in that weather.)
Meanwhile, I heard all these tech bros WHINING, literally WHINING. Oh, San Francisco is so cold in temperature, and all this other BULLSHIT.
I had grown up somewhere if you wore a rainbow shirt someone would have killed you, full stop.
We didn't have beer gardens like tied house. You couldn't even walk anywhere, there were no sidewalks, and the township police would have rolled up on you if you tried. (Meanwhile, one of the richest townships in the country to this day has no bus system as a leftover anarchornism from the era of bussing during MLK's time.)
But people talked like El Camino Real and similar stretches of road out in urban Appalachia were interchangable.
The last summer I was out there, Elliot Rodger went on a rampage after the university counseling center sent me off to Mozilla with two refills on a bottle of aloprazolam and zero leads on therapy for the summer.
(You had to go through the counseling center for it to be covered by the student health plan, and if you met someone who seemed to actually be skilled or empathetic, they'd break it to you they can't "poach clients" even if you wanted to do otherwise, or had misunderstood your benefits, or any other edge case)
I ended going back to my college town and venting to my therapist something to the effect that if folks continue down this path of making the world a giant Ikea without the social programs, folks may perceive it's an easier path to a 1BR and a Playstation if they murder an island of children than if they learn to code or whatever.
And then I went down to the gun range, and rented a glock 40 and about fifty rounds.
(The guy who came with me got a bolt action 223 and quietly sent all his downrange about 200 hundred yards)
(Less kick than a 1911, but still a hell of a recoil. You gotta be within about ten feet if you want to actually make use of one without practice)
I hope folks understand how utterly degrading it is to have it rammed down your throat since childhood to "respect women", then have a string of them who have more assets that your entire family make a show of letting you buy them lunch off OkCupid when the only reason you signed up is because you felt so strongly that folks should focus on work at work, having known what it's like to abandon an entire field of study because someone got too handsy. (It's not "nice", you South Park loving sociopoaths)
Anyways, the time the summer of snowden rolled around, I was DONE WITH IT.
I went back to flyover country and told my therapist that I'd read Elliot Rodgers manifesto, and I thought he was a whiny little freak. I told her that despite that I was sincerely worried that folks might melt down like he did, decide to not JUST commit suicide. I tried to show her an essay I got anonymously published about my special education experiences -- she refused to even read it. They had this weird kind of "If you don't like grad school, you can drop out and work at Subway" mentality.
(I wrote this a while back, but left the tab open because I got distracted -- Happy Memorial Day weekend, peace out girl scouts.)
First summer I rented in the area (around that time), I had to use AirBnB to find something halfway affordable, and I was basically using it more as a trust broker.
The unit I paid 1500 a month for, literally a bedroom in a dog dander riddled home with a tiny shared kitchen.
I looked, and within 3 years the same place would have been more like 4500/month.
(This was walkable to Castro street, but so is a lot in that weather.)
Meanwhile, I heard all these tech bros WHINING, literally WHINING. Oh, San Francisco is so cold in temperature, and all this other BULLSHIT.
I had grown up somewhere if you wore a rainbow shirt someone would have killed you, full stop.
We didn't have beer gardens like tied house. You couldn't even walk anywhere, there were no sidewalks, and the township police would have rolled up on you if you tried. (Meanwhile, one of the richest townships in the country to this day has no bus system as a leftover anarchornism from the era of bussing during MLK's time.)
But people talked like El Camino Real and similar stretches of road out in urban Appalachia were interchangable.
The last summer I was out there, Elliot Rodger went on a rampage after the university counseling center sent me off to Mozilla with two refills on a bottle of aloprazolam and zero leads on therapy for the summer.
(You had to go through the counseling center for it to be covered by the student health plan, and if you met someone who seemed to actually be skilled or empathetic, they'd break it to you they can't "poach clients" even if you wanted to do otherwise, or had misunderstood your benefits, or any other edge case)
I ended going back to my college town and venting to my therapist something to the effect that if folks continue down this path of making the world a giant Ikea without the social programs, folks may perceive it's an easier path to a 1BR and a Playstation if they murder an island of children than if they learn to code or whatever.
And then I went down to the gun range, and rented a glock 40 and about fifty rounds.
(The guy who came with me got a bolt action 223 and quietly sent all his downrange about 200 hundred yards)
(Less kick than a 1911, but still a hell of a recoil. You gotta be within about ten feet if you want to actually make use of one without practice)
I hope folks understand how utterly degrading it is to have it rammed down your throat since childhood to "respect women", then have a string of them who have more assets that your entire family make a show of letting you buy them lunch off OkCupid when the only reason you signed up is because you felt so strongly that folks should focus on work at work, having known what it's like to abandon an entire field of study because someone got too handsy. (It's not "nice", you South Park loving sociopoaths)
Anyways, the time the summer of snowden rolled around, I was DONE WITH IT.
I went back to flyover country and told my therapist that I'd read Elliot Rodgers manifesto, and I thought he was a whiny little freak. I told her that despite that I was sincerely worried that folks might melt down like he did, decide to not JUST commit suicide. I tried to show her an essay I got anonymously published about my special education experiences -- she refused to even read it. They had this weird kind of "If you don't like grad school, you can drop out and work at Subway" mentality.
(I wrote this a while back, but left the tab open because I got distracted -- Happy Memorial Day weekend, peace out girl scouts.)
Ridiculous rent for houses/apartments in a very bad shape, rising crime and eroding faith in the justice system (you could argue that the data doesn’t support this, but the reality is that the data doesn’t support this because a lot of crimes these days go unreported), school district going to shit, bad city governance (which trickles into bad transportation, more homelessness, filth in the streets, businesses closing or not enough new ones opening, ever increasing taxes etc.) and overall high taxes which you question when you don’t get proportional services.
I went to SF over last weekend and thought of stopping by Walgreens (Pharmacy) to pick up eye drops. I had to call the associate to unlock the cabinet doors to pick them up. Took 5-10 mins to just get hold of someone with a key ring the size of a coconut. Every cabinet was locked from toothpaste to tampons. This is at the Walgreens near Union Square which is still better than other areas.
People are leaving because of the decline. I wish San Franciscans would stop defending themselves and admit that things are actually worse and whatever politics they're advocating hasn't worked. This extends more generally to California (and other west coast states).
I voted for Shellenberger for Governor of CA. Felt right.
People are leaving because of the decline. I wish San Franciscans would stop defending themselves and admit that things are actually worse and whatever politics they're advocating hasn't worked. This extends more generally to California (and other west coast states).
I voted for Shellenberger for Governor of CA. Felt right.
Serious question: what's another place in the US with mild year-round weather, walkable neighborhoods (haven't driven a car in 12 years), and easy access to an international airport? That's what SF offers me. The "SF is an unlivable hellhole" drumbeat is so loud that I almost feel compelled to move (my own experience be damned), but I'm not sure where to.
SF is expensive and horrible. The only reason people in tech live there is because of employers in the area and it beats living elsewhere in the Bay Area which is expensive and dull.
There's really no other reason people would put up with an hour (or more) commute each way every day.
There's really no other reason people would put up with an hour (or more) commute each way every day.
The article also says that CA's estimate of the population decline is much smaller, and arguably CA itself would have more accurate data for this particular metric (residency and voter rolls).
So while I'm sure the gist of the argument is true, there is probably a larger margin of error on the calculation than you'd think at first glance. I'm not quite going to say the article is sensationalist, but if you look at the totality of the data (house prices, rental prices, CA's population estimates, etc), I'm not sure the "SF is in freefall" narrative holds up.