Counsyl Is Pioneering A New Bioinformatics Wave
techcrunch.com27 pointsby ramanujan2 comments
- When you cannot look at a screen (driving, working out)
- When there are too many screens (control room)
- In a very dark environment where visibility is impeded
- If you are blind or vision-impaired
This could find real application in cockpits/control rooms, to ensure that a pilot is perceiving data even if they aren't looking at a particular dial. It could also be useful for various fitness and health apps that don't need you to look at the screen all the time. [Submitted March 12]
It's DanielTaylor again and I wanted to create a simple yet
intuitive post to explain the folks out there what happened
a couple of hours ago. This might also be useful for
bloggers or journalists who might be going to write about
it in the following hours.
TL;DR
The programs that read the blockchain, the bitcoin ledger,
disagree.
Due to a bug in 0.7, it says that HIS is the correct
version of this ledger and 0.8 says that HIS is the correct
version.
Miners (the people who add pages to the blockchain) are
told to switch to the 0.7 program so that this version
gains more support and the other one is discarded.
(orphaned).
Regular users are not affected. Their transactions are
included in both ledgers and don't need to change any
programs.
During that time, though, there is a slight chance of a
double-spend ocurring. That is why people recommended
merchants and exchanges to wait until there is one single
blockchain again before processing purchases and
merchandise.
...
What's a double-spend?
This is the reason why some merchants and exchanges stopped
processing incoming bitcoins for a couple of hours.
The bitcoin network prevents people from spending the same
coins by mantaining this unique ledger, the blockchain. But
now that there were two of them, it was theoretically
possible to broadcast two different transactions with the
same coins and still get some confirmations.
With some luck, someone could sneakily sneakily* buy a
television to a merchant who was reading the 0.8 ledger and
have the transaction confirmed. At the same time he could
have sent the same coins back to himself and, with some
luck, have the transaction confirmed on the 0.7 ledger.
What happens is that, in the end when 0.7 wins, the thief
will have the television and his bitcoins. Remember that
there were two different versions of the same coins!
This is not something easy to do and requires a lot of luck
because the blocks mined (the pages added to the ledger)
must be mined precisely in the correct order. But still, in
this situation it was easier to pull off and so it was
recommended for merchants and exchanges to temporarily stop
processing incoming transactions.
Now the situation has resolved and the blockchain keeps
growing happily, page by page, block y block. People can inject just about anything they want into
themselves
Actually, that is expressly not what the Cowan or the earlier Rutherford decision on Laetrile say. In Court, Plaintiff argued that he should have the right to
take whatever treatment he wishes due to his terminal
condition regardless of whether the FDA approves the
treatment as effective or safe, and that to prohibit him
from taking the treatment he wishes violates his rights
under the United States Constitution.4 The United States
Supreme Court previously addressed and rejected this
argument in Rutherford. In Rutherford, cancer patients
requested the right to use Laetrile, arguing, as does
Plaintiff, that for terminally ill patients the
effectiveness or safety of the proposed treatment is
irrelevant since such treatment is a last chance effort.
However, as identified by the Supreme Court in Rutherford,
to permit terminally ill patients to seek any type of
treatment regardless of the effectiveness of such treatment
would create a cottage industry existing solely to provide
potential panaceas to highly vulnerable patients. The
language of the Supreme Court in rejecting the Laetrile
argument is equally applicable here.
"If history is any guide, this new market would not be long
overlooked. Since the turn of the century, resourceful
entrepreneurs have advertised a wide variety of purportedly
simple and painless cures for cancer, including liniments
of turpentine, mustard, oil, eggs, and ammonia; peat moss;
arrangements of colored floodlamps; pastes made from
glycerin and limburger cheese; mineral tablets; and
`Fountain of Youth' mixtures of spices, oil, and suet. In
citing these examples, we do not, of course, intend to
deprecate the sincerity of Laetrile's current proponents,
or to imply any opinion on whether that drug may ultimately
prove safe and effective for cancer treatment. But this
historical experience does suggest why Congress could
reasonably have determined to protect the terminally ill,
no less than other patients, from the vast range of self-
styled panaceas that inventive minds can devise."
I don't know about you, but this argument strikes me as bizarre. Terminal patients are to be protected from their own good from a "drug [that] may ultimately prove safe and effective for cancer treatment" because they might be scammed by "inventive minds"? The delay and large reduction in the total number of new
drugs has had terrible consequences. It is difficult to
estimate how many lives the post-1962 FDA controls have
cost, but the number is likely to be substantial;
Gieringer (1985) estimates the loss of life from delay
alone to be in the hundreds of thousands (not to mention
millions of patients who endured unnecessary morbidity). ...
If the U.S. system resulted in appreciably safer drugs, we
would expect to see far fewer postmarket safety
withdrawals in the United States than in other countries.
Bakke et al. (1995) compared safety withdrawals in the
United States with those in Great Britain and Spain, each
of which approved more drugs than the United States during
the same time period. Yet, approximately 3 percent of all
drug approvals were withdrawn for safety reasons in the
United States, approximately 3 percent in Spain, and
approximately 4 percent in Great Britain. There is no
evidence that the U.S. drug lag brings greater safety.
Ultimately this boils down to a classification problem. There will be type I and type II errors associated with any kind of centralized approval process. And when studied in its totality, there is quite a bit of evidence that the type II errors are predominating: good drugs being slowed or denied. Plaintiff requests that Dr. Davis be authorized to inject
Plaintiff with the with the experimental goat neutralizing
antibody drug [1] and that the FDA be enjoined from
interfering with Dr. Davis' treatment of Plaintiff. ...
The Court is sympathetic to Plaintiff's situation.
However, the law is very clear, and under the current
statutes and regulations, Plaintiff's physician may not
administer the goat neutralizing antibody drug absent
prior approval of the FDA. In Court, Plaintiff argued that
he should have the right to take whatever treatment he
wishes due to his terminal condition regardless of whether
the FDA approves the treatment as effective or safe, and
that to prohibit him from taking the treatment he wishes
violates his rights under the US Constitution. ...
This Court is in no way criticizing the intentions of
Plaintiff and his physician or the potential effectiveness
of the proposed treatment. Plaintiff's physician should
pursue approval of his Investigational New Drug
application as quickly as possible. Plaintiff's doctor
must obtain appropriate approval through the proper
regulatory authorities. As much as this Court may
empathize with Plaintiff, the authority to provide some
type of exemptions for individuals such as Plaintiff rests
with Congress and not with this Court.
Plaintiff was denied. Plaintiff died. Who knows whether the drug would have saved him, but he wasn't given the chance to try. Occasionally, if you have tremendous political connections, you can get a waiver, like Fred Baron: “We did a safety review, consulted with experts on PML,
and worked closely with FDA to come up with a risk
management program that allowed us to bring it back on the
market in a way that limited its use,” a Biogen
spokeswoman told the Law Blog. The plan prohibits giving
Tysabri for unapproved uses.
Biogen Idec is running an early-stage trial of the drug in
multiple myeloma, but Baron doesn’t meet the criteria to
participate.
Baron’s a prominent donor to the Democratic party, and
many of his powerful friends, including Lance Armstrong
and Bill Clinton, made appeals on his behalf. And the
family agreed not to sue if anything goes wrong.
Ultimately, his doctors at the Mayo Clinic worked directly
with the FDA to find a “legal basis” for giving Baron
Tysabri. The deal was announced on Baron’s son’s blog late
yesterday.
So, if you are wealthy you can travel outside the US to opt-out (though US-based companies will usually not administer treatment for fear of getting on the FDA's bad side). And if you are politically connected you can sometimes get an experimental treatment, like Baron. I remember reading an academic article that showed how the
real cost was almost always 1/20 of that
This is the Light and Warburton study. The short answer is
that it's kind of like a freshman saying "I could build Facebook overnight" by wgetting Facebook's CSS/JS. But for anyone in engineering who knows what FB's backend infrastructure is like, they know it would be nontrivial to clone FB. It's faster to run experiments on animals than people.
I'm not gainsaying the utility of animal models. I just think the goal needs to be to get to humans as soon as the safety data is in, because people are dying. I think you are vastly overestimating what society has to
gain by deregulating medicine. You'll get a one-time gain
of 10 years of progress at the cost of an unknown number of
lives.
Well, the reason sulfalinamide/thalidomide were heavily covered in 1938/1962 respectively was that those were relatively rare events. So I would somewhat disagree that the number of lives would be unknown. But, ok, let's take as a given that some would die. On the other side of the ledger, we both agree that tens of millions of people each year are dying from cancer and heart disease. So let's consider two scenarios for a cure for condition X, which kills 1 million people per year. - 0 die from testing
- cure appears at end of 10 years
- 10 million people die over those 10 years
- 10 million deaths
In scenario II, you had - 1000 die from testing over 3 years
- 3 million die from disease over those yeers
- cure appears in year 3
- no further deaths
- 3 million + 1000 total deaths
So scenario II saves ~7 million lives. Feel free to play with the numbers, but that's the kind of calculus I think we need to engage in, one that explicitly reckons with the cost of delay. In reality, the number of deaths attributable to R&D won't be close to 1000, though it won't be zero. But there is no reasonable scenario in which R&D actually consumes anything close to as many lives as the disease itself. Dr. Holdren passed the letter on to the Food and Drug
Administration for review. But, in the FDA's response, the
agency gave the issues little more than a data-driven brush
off. They cite five studies in response to the professors'
request for independent verification of the safety of these
X-rays; however, three are more than a decade old, and none
of them deal specifically with the low-energy X-rays the
professors are concerned about. The letter also doesn't
mention the FDA's own classification of X-rays as
carcinogens in 2005.
2) Second, the formal IND fast-track program you mention is very political to get into (on the device side there's something similar called Pathway to Innovation). Moreover, FDA doesn't count days like you and I count days. It's like an NFL game which is 60 minutes but actually takes three hours; every time they email you back, it stops their clock. And they can email you back to ask for data that takes months to gather. This is from a device consultant but the principle is the same for drugs: By law, FDA must respond to your 510(k) within 90 days, and
typically they do. The thing you have to understand is that
FDA measures 90 days about the same way the NFL measures
the 60 minutes in a football game. It's not unusual for the
clock to spend more time stopped than running.
3) Third, regarding thalidomide, as you probably know there were three major catastrophes that increased FDA power (1906 publication of the Jungle which birthed proto-FDA, 1938 elixir of sulfalinamide, and 1962 thalidomide) and another major catastrophe in the early 90s that reduced FDA power (FDA delays on AZT and slowdown of AIDS drugs). This guidance is intended to provide industry with
information on how the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
is applying the 180-day generic drug exclusivity provisions
of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the Act) in
light of recent court decisions. The guidance
addresses the issue of the elimination of the "successful
defense" requirement, which required an abbreviated new
application (ANDA) applicant to be sued for patent
infringement and to prevail in the litigation to receive
the 180-day period of marketing exclusivity.
How crazy is that? For many years official FDA policy was that a generic maker had to actually be sued for patent infringement - and win in the lawsuit - as the condition for receiving a 180-day monopoly! approved treatments in humans often lag 10 years or so
behind what's known to work in animal models
The reason for this is regulation and IRB. I direct you to Banting and Best (which I also linked below): Early in 1921, Banting took his idea to Professor John
Macleod at the University of Toronto, who was a leading
figure in the study of diabetes in Canada.
Banting and Best began their experiments by removing the
pancreas from a dog. ... By giving the diabetic dog a few
injections a day, Banting and Best could keep it healthy
and free of symptoms.
The team was eager to start testing on humans. But on whom
should they test? Banting and Best began by injecting
themselves with the extract. They felt weak and dizzy, but
they were not harmed.
In January 1922 in Toronto, Canada, a 14-year-old boy,
Leonard Thompson, was chosen as the first person with
diabetes to receive insulin. The test was a success.
Leonard, who before the insulin shots was near death,
rapidly regained his strength and appetite. The team now
expanded their testing to other volunteer diabetics, who
reacted just as positively as Leonard to the insulin
extract.
The news of the successful treatment of diabetes with
insulin rapidly spread outside of Toronto, and in 1923 the
Nobel Committee decided to award Banting and Macleod the
Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.
Two years from idea to animal trials to safety trials (self-experimentation) to human trials to Nobel Prize. That was when pharma moved at the speed of software; that is what a landscape free for innovation can produce. I don't think removing the FDA is going to find a cure for
diabetes.
Well, before the FDA as such even existed, Banting and Best came up with the idea for insulin supplementation in 1921. A patient was treated by 1922. They won the Nobel Prize by 1923. Today's FDA would have made their methods completely impossible and they would have been criminally prosecuted. Early in 1921, Banting took his idea to Professor John
Macleod at the University of Toronto, who was a leading
figure in the study of diabetes in Canada. Macleod didn't
think much of Banting's theories. Despite this, Banting
managed to convince him that his idea was worth trying.
In January 1922 in Toronto, Canada, a 14-year-old boy,
Leonard Thompson, was chosen as the first person with
diabetes to receive insulin. The test was a success.
Leonard, who before the insulin shots was near death,
rapidly regained his strength and appetite. The team now
expanded their testing to other volunteer diabetics, who
reacted just as positively as Leonard to the insulin
extract.
The news of the successful treatment of diabetes with
insulin rapidly spread outside of Toronto, and in 1923 the
Nobel Committee decided to award Banting and Macleod the
Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.
Point: the FDA need not exist to make progress against diabetes. That is, federal regulation is not a necessary condition. We need the FDA to regulate drugs and medical devices.
There's too much potential for quackery.
So that is the key question: is the goal to allow rapid technological progress or is the goal to prevent quackery? You can of course eliminate all quackery by rejecting all new devices (high false negative rate), and many major innovations sound like quackery at the beginning. Here's another Nobel Laureate, Barry Marshall. The extreme skepticism of my colleagues led me to believe
that I might never be funded to perform the crucial trial
of antibiotics... I realized then that the medical
understanding of ulcer disease was akin to a religion. No
amount of logical reasoning could budge what people knew in
their hearts to be true. Ulcers were caused by stress, bad
diet, smoking, alcohol and susceptible genes. A bacterial
cause was preposterous.
3) Regarding researcher income: We should be paying medical researchers similar incomes to
engineers at Silicon Valley tech firms.
The thing is that the entire higher education establishment is about to crash hard with the student loan bubble. I think an alternative paradigm is to reduce the equipment costs associated with starting a bio lab, via diybio.org, biocurious.org, openpcr.org, and the like. This goes in hand with broadly reducing capital costs (regulatory + equipment). In so doing it will become easier to do biotech startups with a Valley culture, and the salaries will follow. California taxes are funding one of the biggest research
efforts into stem cells.
Nothing against CIRM, they're fantastic. But the FDA is forcing the resulting stem cell startups overseas. Last September, Nature predicted a stem cell showdown in
Texas, between the FDA and a company providing unproven
stem cell treatments, and that seems to be happening. In a
severe “warning letter” posted on the agency’s website this
week (but dated September 24, 2012), the FDA told
Sugarland, Texas-based Celltex Therapeutics Corporation
that its stem cell products fall under FDA regulation and
need to be approved before use in patients.
The letter is a challenge to new regulations that the Texas
Medical Board put in place in April, which had made FDA
approval an option, not a requirement. Those regulations
state that doctors injecting stem cells into patients need
FDA approval or the approval of a local institutional
review board (IRB). The warning letter makes clear that the
FDA expects its approval to be mandatory—effectively
replacing the “or” with an “and”.
http://gizmodo.com/5881492/according-to-the-fda-your-stem-ce... In recent court filings, the Food and Drug Administration
has asserted that stem cells—you know, the ones our bodies
produce naturally—are in fact drugs and subject to its
regulatory oversight. So does that make me a controlled
substance? The bizarre controversy revolves around the
FDA's attempt to regulate the Centeno-Schultz Clinic in
Colorado that performs a nonsurgical stem-cell therapy
called Regenexx-C.
5) At the end of the day We need the FDA
You might want to look at the FDA Alumni Association (http://fdaaa.org) or the membership list of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA (http://strengthenfda.org/members/).