China bans new Bitcoin deposits(ft.com)
ft.com
China bans new Bitcoin deposits
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6707013a-67af-11e3-8ada-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2noKo4XIN
21 comments
This move seems obvious. Bitcoin's popularity has far more negative consequences for Chinese government (or any other government) than benefit. Bitcoin might topple the dollar hegemony if popularized, which might be what China wants, but central banks lose their power to control the money flow in the system. Why would any government want that? Any money goes into Bitcoin is essentially money gone offline right now so it reduces tax revenue and adds noise to national statistics. Bitcoin or any other crypto-coin has real chance of adoption only when it's sponsored by government.
"Bitcoin or any other crypto-coin has real chance of adoption only when it's sponsored by government."
While I agree with your assertion that governments have no reason to support Bitcoin, I don't believe it follows that government sponsorship is necessary for the success of Bitcoin. I suspect most people betting on Bitcoin are aware that at some point, governments are going to act forcefully to kill Bitcoin, and the fallout will be utterly unpredictable.
But, I don't think it's something that can be put back in the bottle. We're crossing into uncharted waters here. Nothing like Bitcoin has ever happened before...so, we don't know how it's going to play out. I'm bullish even with the expectation that major world governments will collude with current financial elites to kill Bitcoin, because I suspect there is no way they can actually kill it.
While I agree with your assertion that governments have no reason to support Bitcoin, I don't believe it follows that government sponsorship is necessary for the success of Bitcoin. I suspect most people betting on Bitcoin are aware that at some point, governments are going to act forcefully to kill Bitcoin, and the fallout will be utterly unpredictable.
But, I don't think it's something that can be put back in the bottle. We're crossing into uncharted waters here. Nothing like Bitcoin has ever happened before...so, we don't know how it's going to play out. I'm bullish even with the expectation that major world governments will collude with current financial elites to kill Bitcoin, because I suspect there is no way they can actually kill it.
> governments are going to act forcefully to kill Bitcoin, and the fallout will be utterly unpredictable.
I don't think so. I think it's quite predictable that, if that happens, Bitcoin will lose. In the sense that it will ultimately become a cryptocurrency also-ran. Something else will probably rise to take its place after it's been bloodied, something designed to be resistant to whatever response the world's governments bring to bear.
I don't think so. I think it's quite predictable that, if that happens, Bitcoin will lose. In the sense that it will ultimately become a cryptocurrency also-ran. Something else will probably rise to take its place after it's been bloodied, something designed to be resistant to whatever response the world's governments bring to bear.
In the same way that peer-to-peer file sharing lost?
In the same way that Napster lost. Imagine if you'd invested in that one after the mainstream noticed it.
> Bitcoin might topple the dollar hegemony if popularized, which might be what China wants
Why would China want this? The current system works in their favor, even they admit RMB isn't ready to be a world currency yet by disallowing full convertibility.
> but central banks lose their power to control the money flow in the system
Exactly. Also, this is a big loophole over the RMB's non-convertibility limitation/feature.
Why would China want this? The current system works in their favor, even they admit RMB isn't ready to be a world currency yet by disallowing full convertibility.
> but central banks lose their power to control the money flow in the system
Exactly. Also, this is a big loophole over the RMB's non-convertibility limitation/feature.
Who is taking the other side of the trade with these Bitcoin/RMB exchanges? I mean, I often come across people who have RMB but want USD. Far less often do I come across people who have USD but want RMB.
Every time an American buys a widget made in China - a rather frequent event - that causes someone somewhere in the supply chain to have dollars and want RMB.
The government usually takes care of this by buying their RMB. They then usually use the dollars to buy treasuries...
Huh? Plenty of people are trying to buy RMB (so called "hot money") to take positions in the Chinese economy and perhaps to speculate on currency a bit. When I came to China 6 years, the exchange rate with about 7.5 RMB to 1 USD, now its like 6 RMB to 1 USD. Plenty of people think that the RMB has a lot of room to appreciate, especially if the Chinese gov. gets tired of buying treasuries.
Clearly my sample size is too small!
Any insight into how foreigners take positions in the Chinese economy with RMB they obtained through USD->Bitcoin->RMB transactions?
- Currency: easy, as you just need a passport to open a bank account - Starting a company: harder, as I thought that opening a WFOE required the capital to be injected in a specific way at a specific step in the process - High interest deposits: these seem either risky (some of the bonds sold by banks) or unavailable to foreigners (yu'ebao 余额宝) - Real estate: some cities require a hukou or minimum duration of residence - A shares: need to be a PRC national - Angel investments and unofficial loans to small businesses?
What else?
Any insight into how foreigners take positions in the Chinese economy with RMB they obtained through USD->Bitcoin->RMB transactions?
- Currency: easy, as you just need a passport to open a bank account - Starting a company: harder, as I thought that opening a WFOE required the capital to be injected in a specific way at a specific step in the process - High interest deposits: these seem either risky (some of the bonds sold by banks) or unavailable to foreigners (yu'ebao 余额宝) - Real estate: some cities require a hukou or minimum duration of residence - A shares: need to be a PRC national - Angel investments and unofficial loans to small businesses?
What else?
You are limited in how much RMB you can buy just as you are in selling. You are right that most RMB investments suck, beyond opening a massage parlor or dealing drugs in the tun or something. Real estate is the worst investment right now, hukou not withstanding. You can buy A shares now as long as you have RMB, but the stock exchange is insider trader driven.
Honestly, I don't know what the reason for incoming hot flows are, just that they have been a problem in the past. There are obviously good investments to be had here if you are well connected.
Honestly, I don't know what the reason for incoming hot flows are, just that they have been a problem in the past. There are obviously good investments to be had here if you are well connected.
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I am not so sure that no governments would like to sponsor cryptocurrencies.
Obviously, not states with dominant currencies for the reasons you mentioned, but I could see other countries jumping into the opportunity of altering the status quo.
This is an interesting take on it. I assumed all governments would want to destroy Bitcoin (once they see its impact), but that really only applies to nations that have a dominant currency to defend, as well as a need for inflationary debt-based currency to support massive deficit spending for war and/or empire building (so, the US, China...maybe nobody else).
This. I can see many governments banning Bitcoin before it rises to it's full potential and then the governments accepting it.
I see no article text here...
Try searching Google for http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6707013a-67af-11e3-8ada-00144...
If you click through from Google, you will probably see the article text.
If you click through from Google, you will probably see the article text.
I also see no article text. Is this only getting voted up by people who didn't click through?
BTCChina closed bank deposit as a way to deposit Chinese Yuan. Right now no way to deposit CNY into the exchange:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1t5cfx/btcchina_clo...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1t5cfx/btcchina_clo...
Ouch, that market crash: http://markets.blockchain.info
Here is another article: http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1384688...
Here is another article: http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1384688...
There was a lot of work to keep it over 500 for a bit.
As far as I know they closed Chinese Yuan deposits. Bitcoin deposits or withdrawals are NOT affected [1].
[1] http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1t5cfx/btcchina_clo...
[1] http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1t5cfx/btcchina_clo...
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I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180
Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258
In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500.
Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100.
I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to ignore Sam Altman and lose more than half your money."
http://blog.samaltman.com/thoughts-on-bitcoin
EDIT: I'm holding onto my coins. But, now that China is strongly incentivized not to invest in Bitcoin, it's going to be a very slow climb back to $1106. And at the end of that long road (I'd say at least several months, but what the hell do I know, right?) I get to look forward to: "Yay. I've lost $0. I've also gained $0."
EDIT2: Oh, nope! It just fell from $520 to $500. So, at current market prices, my $11k is now $4,780. Of course, we've all seen bitcion dip and quickly rise again. It's just very... interesting... to me that within the timespan of writing a HN comment, I'm down another $320.
Yes. Interesting. That's the word. I'm interested. In learning from my mistakes.
FYI, that -$5,900 was enough to pay off my car loan in its entirety, or all of my (admittedly small, relatively speaking) credit card debt.
Oh well. I'm going to go build a product and sell it now.
EDIT3: The market rose from $500 to $540, so that means I've earned back $474! And since my last edit was an hour ago, that must mean I'm earning $474/hr writing HN comments in my pajamas! Why hold down a programming job when you can write HN comments fulltime for 4x the wage? Quit tomorrow, sell everything you own, and invest it all in bitcoin immediately!
Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258
In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500.
Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100.
I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to ignore Sam Altman and lose more than half your money."
http://blog.samaltman.com/thoughts-on-bitcoin
EDIT: I'm holding onto my coins. But, now that China is strongly incentivized not to invest in Bitcoin, it's going to be a very slow climb back to $1106. And at the end of that long road (I'd say at least several months, but what the hell do I know, right?) I get to look forward to: "Yay. I've lost $0. I've also gained $0."
EDIT2: Oh, nope! It just fell from $520 to $500. So, at current market prices, my $11k is now $4,780. Of course, we've all seen bitcion dip and quickly rise again. It's just very... interesting... to me that within the timespan of writing a HN comment, I'm down another $320.
Yes. Interesting. That's the word. I'm interested. In learning from my mistakes.
FYI, that -$5,900 was enough to pay off my car loan in its entirety, or all of my (admittedly small, relatively speaking) credit card debt.
Oh well. I'm going to go build a product and sell it now.
EDIT3: The market rose from $500 to $540, so that means I've earned back $474! And since my last edit was an hour ago, that must mean I'm earning $474/hr writing HN comments in my pajamas! Why hold down a programming job when you can write HN comments fulltime for 4x the wage? Quit tomorrow, sell everything you own, and invest it all in bitcoin immediately!
The market rose from $500 to $540, so that means I've earned back $474! And since my last edit was an hour ago, that must mean I'm earning $474/hr writing HN comments in my pajamas!
Your sense of humor is worth its weight in gold. I've just bookmarked your comment as a reminder of "survivorship bias," how people can look back at any arbitrarily chosen period of their lives as evidence of their successful reasoning and planning.
Yeah, being a bit older than most participants here and remembering earlier gold booms and busts, and earlier technology stock booms and busts, and so on, means that I'm a bit less excited at each new Best New Hack Ever™ that comes along. Hot-blooded younger people will continue to ignore me, but that too has happened often enough in the past that I don't let it get to me. Good luck in building your product. I'll be glad to buy new products built by young people as they gain wisdom.
To all our friends here: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent"[1] is still good investment advice.
[1] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes#Attributed
Your sense of humor is worth its weight in gold. I've just bookmarked your comment as a reminder of "survivorship bias," how people can look back at any arbitrarily chosen period of their lives as evidence of their successful reasoning and planning.
Yeah, being a bit older than most participants here and remembering earlier gold booms and busts, and earlier technology stock booms and busts, and so on, means that I'm a bit less excited at each new Best New Hack Ever™ that comes along. Hot-blooded younger people will continue to ignore me, but that too has happened often enough in the past that I don't let it get to me. Good luck in building your product. I'll be glad to buy new products built by young people as they gain wisdom.
To all our friends here: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent"[1] is still good investment advice.
[1] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes#Attributed
>remembering earlier gold booms and busts, and earlier technology stock booms and busts
A favourite pass-time of mine is reading old business and financial newspapers. I remember vividly the bubbling joy and aching pain I felt as the EU and European Monetary Union came together, as in the shining future The Economist saw for the citizens of 1920.
That juxtaposition of exuberant optimism and the knowledge of cold reality has been a good template for walking through possible outcomes as if they are known eventualities. The process tends to leave one considerably soberer than at the start.
A favourite pass-time of mine is reading old business and financial newspapers. I remember vividly the bubbling joy and aching pain I felt as the EU and European Monetary Union came together, as in the shining future The Economist saw for the citizens of 1920.
That juxtaposition of exuberant optimism and the knowledge of cold reality has been a good template for walking through possible outcomes as if they are known eventualities. The process tends to leave one considerably soberer than at the start.
It's so cool to see you going the emotional roller coaster of your first big investment mistake.
And it's even for an amount you can afford to lose in the long run! You're a lucky man. That's much better than betting the house after losing your job in your mid-life crisis.
Just take the opportunity and pay very close attention to your emotions and what triggers them. Awareness of that is what will make you a better investor in the long run and, whether we invest time or money, we're all investors in the end.
And it's even for an amount you can afford to lose in the long run! You're a lucky man. That's much better than betting the house after losing your job in your mid-life crisis.
Just take the opportunity and pay very close attention to your emotions and what triggers them. Awareness of that is what will make you a better investor in the long run and, whether we invest time or money, we're all investors in the end.
> learning from my mistakes.
what was your rationale for investing in the first place? Was it following some person on the internet? Or was it because you believed in the bitcoin craze? Or was it because you believed that Chinese demand would drive up BTC? Or some other reason?
The way to learn from your mistakes is to sit back and understand why you bought BTC in the first place, and then try to understand what went wrong (treat this like a scientific experiment)
what was your rationale for investing in the first place? Was it following some person on the internet? Or was it because you believed in the bitcoin craze? Or was it because you believed that Chinese demand would drive up BTC? Or some other reason?
The way to learn from your mistakes is to sit back and understand why you bought BTC in the first place, and then try to understand what went wrong (treat this like a scientific experiment)
Forgive me but why would you save money in a mutual fund and not pay off a car loan. Surely the interest on the loan is much higher than the interest you were getting from the fund.
Prior to buying the coins that is.
Prior to buying the coins that is.
Also, the gain of paying off the loan is tax-free, whereas any gains from asset value fluctuation are subject to tax.
The only reason I can think of is that there might be penalties for paying off the car loan early. But there is no excuse for the credit card debt.
Can't speak to GP, but my car loan interest rate is below the annual return on my mutual funds for the past several years. Depending on the deal you can get on your interest rates it can make sense (1.49% APR, after the 3 years I'll have paid less than 1 extra car payment as interest, or 1/36th the value of the loan as interest; any fund that rode out this recent stock market increase well will easily beat that).
ADDENDUM: I didn't state that very clearly. Start with a loan of $7200, split over 3 years of monthly payments it's $200/month. Go with the rate I actually have (1.49%) and the loan payment is $204.63/month. It works out to $166.59 in interest spent over those 36 months. I found a 3 year CD with an APY of 0.91%. If you invest that same $7200 it will be worth $7398.35 after the 3 year period. A profit of about $32. And that's with an ordinary CD, less conservative investments have a much higher potential yield. Of course you pay tax on those earnings, so the CD may not actually be profitable in this scenario, but a higher yield account almost certainly would be.
[1] Missed the edit window by this much.
[1] Missed the edit window by this much.
At least recently, new cars loan often have interest in the range of <3%. I have one car loan at 0.9%; and my last two before that were at 1.9% and 3.9%.
But I think most importantly, a mutual fund is much more liquid than a car (or a house).
If I had the choice between pre-paying $11,000 towards a car loan and sticking money in the bank; I would probably choose to stick it in the bank or a mutual fund. I always have the option of paying down a car loan if I want, but once I pay it down, I no longer have the cash. Stuff happens, and the utility of having the cash is more than potential savings from not paying a small amount interest for a few years.
But I think most importantly, a mutual fund is much more liquid than a car (or a house).
If I had the choice between pre-paying $11,000 towards a car loan and sticking money in the bank; I would probably choose to stick it in the bank or a mutual fund. I always have the option of paying down a car loan if I want, but once I pay it down, I no longer have the cash. Stuff happens, and the utility of having the cash is more than potential savings from not paying a small amount interest for a few years.
For what it's worth, I'm looking at this as a buying opportunity. I put everything I had available into BTC during rise to $1000+ (I first invested early, so I'm just about breaking even right now, though if it drops any further, I'll be showing a loss). But, I've got a paycheck coming in soon, and it looks like prices are gonna be nice enough for me to buy a couple more BTC with that money.
I'm longterm bullish on BTC, so a low price is an opportunity to buy, not a time to beat myself up for timing the market wrong. Of course, I could be wrong in my bullishness. It could all fall apart, or one of the other cryptocoins could prove to be "the one" (though I tend to think most are just also-rans and can and should be ignored). But, I'm absolutely confident a cryptocurrency, of some sort, is absolutely the future. It's one of those unstoppable forces, I think, and as long as the number of people preferring it to USD (or other fiat currencies) keeps rising, the real value (not the exchange value) of BTC is going to keep going up. I want as much of that future as I can afford.
I'm longterm bullish on BTC, so a low price is an opportunity to buy, not a time to beat myself up for timing the market wrong. Of course, I could be wrong in my bullishness. It could all fall apart, or one of the other cryptocoins could prove to be "the one" (though I tend to think most are just also-rans and can and should be ignored). But, I'm absolutely confident a cryptocurrency, of some sort, is absolutely the future. It's one of those unstoppable forces, I think, and as long as the number of people preferring it to USD (or other fiat currencies) keeps rising, the real value (not the exchange value) of BTC is going to keep going up. I want as much of that future as I can afford.
>I put everything I had available into BTC
Please don't do this. No matter how confident you are in your investment thesis it doesn't ever justify 100% allocation into a single asset - that implies infinite confidence.
Please don't do this. No matter how confident you are in your investment thesis it doesn't ever justify 100% allocation into a single asset - that implies infinite confidence.
Sorry to mislead with that statement. I meant, "Cash on hand." I still hold GOOG and TSLA, as well as physical assets, and 48.5% stake in a business with significant value.
I am only investing money I can afford to lose. I don't want to lose it, but I won't starve if I do.
I am only investing money I can afford to lose. I don't want to lose it, but I won't starve if I do.
Aside from your business your only securities are two individual shares - thats a bit risky in its self id maybe think about some IT's or ETF's before speculating in bitcoin
The sad thing is that the right time to invest is when things are looking bleak (and I think we may still have a ways to go down) but most people are drawn in when the price is high. So for those of you on the sidelines, I think we may have some good opportunities to get in during the coming months.
You need patience with Bitcoin. It does swings like this all the time. The last spike topped out at around 250 in spring this year and then dropped to 100 for some time. Then as you know it recently spiked at 1200 and now is down again. Hold it two years, and if you don't have a 10x increase, you can decide it was stupid. Deciding now is indeed stupid, so I would advise against it. Take a deep breath, see it as a risk investment and look what's coming ahead. And never judge based on a few weeks of data.
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I anticipate your feelings being quite widespread. I only had $200 in them after cashing out, but I've still felt terrible when the price drops. It's rather odd. This is the first time I have ever participated in an actual exchange market with volatility and all. I built a trading bot, and was making a couple of dollars a day trading my 0.17 BTC. A few weeks ago I was feeling suicidal based on not buying some a couple of years ago when it was $10. My family has been having a rough time, and I kept thinking that I had missed my chance to pull us out of the hole we are in.
This is a crazy and interesting time to live in, and I'm glad I'm still here even if Bitcoin didn't make me rich.
This is a crazy and interesting time to live in, and I'm glad I'm still here even if Bitcoin didn't make me rich.
You can't change the past, man. I also regret not buying them years ago, but I can't change that. Look to the future.
Personally, my future looks good enough even if I never buy any bitcoin. If buying bitcoin makes you worry and possibly risk depression and suicide, you'd better stay out. Yes, other people are getting rich somewhere, but that doesn't have to mean anything to you.There's always someone getting rich somewhere. There's always someone winning the lottery. Do you terrible when someone bought a lottery ticket and won millions? That stuff just happens. Let it go.
If you've got a job paying more than $50k per year, you're still in the richest 1% of the world. Don't worry so much. You're doing very well.
Personally, my future looks good enough even if I never buy any bitcoin. If buying bitcoin makes you worry and possibly risk depression and suicide, you'd better stay out. Yes, other people are getting rich somewhere, but that doesn't have to mean anything to you.There's always someone getting rich somewhere. There's always someone winning the lottery. Do you terrible when someone bought a lottery ticket and won millions? That stuff just happens. Let it go.
If you've got a job paying more than $50k per year, you're still in the richest 1% of the world. Don't worry so much. You're doing very well.
U.S.A. Suicide Hotline 1-800-273-TALK (8255). Remember, it's just money.
I love when people just like that are assuming that everything has to happen in U.S.A. and that world around it doesnt exist ;)
Your comment is only valid because that's a 1-800 number. 1-800 numbers are free to call in the USA, which is why many people have them, but their downside is that you can't call them from outside the USA.
Upon first discovering SIP addresses and that everybody on earth could have an email style phone number that would be free to call, I have been waiting and waiting for the world to transition to SIP addresses instead of phone numbers.
If such a thing occurs, someday, then publishing a phone address from one country will not be a problem. I'm sure the folks at the suicide hotline would gladly take calls from anywhere in the world, if they could do so for free. Sadly, as things stand now, they could publish a SIP address, but nobody would know how to use it.
Upon first discovering SIP addresses and that everybody on earth could have an email style phone number that would be free to call, I have been waiting and waiting for the world to transition to SIP addresses instead of phone numbers.
If such a thing occurs, someday, then publishing a phone address from one country will not be a problem. I'm sure the folks at the suicide hotline would gladly take calls from anywhere in the world, if they could do so for free. Sadly, as things stand now, they could publish a SIP address, but nobody would know how to use it.
I'm truly annoyed when people latch onto a single word, and forget everything else you are saying.
I know what you mean. I never did buy into Bitcoin because when I became aware of it in 2012, I looked at the historical price chart and thought the bubble had come and gone in 2011 and I'd already missed my chance to get rich.
Ended up pointing out to myself, hey if I had the power to go back in time, I wouldn't spend it going back to 2011 to get rich, I'd spend it going back to 1920 to kill Hitler. If I don't feel bad about not being able to do that, there's no point feeling bad about not getting rich on Bitcoin either.
As you say, it's a crazy and interesting time to live in.
Ended up pointing out to myself, hey if I had the power to go back in time, I wouldn't spend it going back to 2011 to get rich, I'd spend it going back to 1920 to kill Hitler. If I don't feel bad about not being able to do that, there's no point feeling bad about not getting rich on Bitcoin either.
As you say, it's a crazy and interesting time to live in.
Don't kick yourself for not trying to speculate yourself out of economic difficulties. Things can just as well go the wrong direction if you try to do that.
Be here now.
Who knows, maybe the example to learn from is not getting scared when you go from $11k to $5.1k and waiting for a month until it's up to $20k. On the other hand, maybe it's that you should sell having only lost $5.9k rather than wait until that $5.1k drops to $5.10.
You suggest that the lesson should be based on the outcome, but actually in the presence of significant random noise/unknowns, that's not always true.
It's quite possible to make bad decisions that turn out well and good decisions that turn out badly.
To learn the correct lessons, he needs to work out if his original plan was sensible given what he knew (or could reasonably find out) at the time and he's just unlucky, or if the decision to invest was reckless or based on inadequate or wrong information.
Having said that, it's so easy to deceive ourselves, that I've heard people say that it's a good idea to work out what would falsify your assumptions before investing.
The decision he made was either a good one or a bad one based on the information available to him at the time. That will be true regardless of whether he becomes a billionaire in the next month or goes entirely broke.
The true lesson to be learned is not dependent on the outcome.
It's quite possible to make bad decisions that turn out well and good decisions that turn out badly.
To learn the correct lessons, he needs to work out if his original plan was sensible given what he knew (or could reasonably find out) at the time and he's just unlucky, or if the decision to invest was reckless or based on inadequate or wrong information.
Having said that, it's so easy to deceive ourselves, that I've heard people say that it's a good idea to work out what would falsify your assumptions before investing.
The decision he made was either a good one or a bad one based on the information available to him at the time. That will be true regardless of whether he becomes a billionaire in the next month or goes entirely broke.
The true lesson to be learned is not dependent on the outcome.
Part of the available information is that you often understand or know very little. Sometimes judgement that a bubble will take place makes far more money than investing for the long term.
Depends on your wager. If you think bit-coin will never rise again sell now and walk away wounded.
But that wager makes no sense at all since people accidentally delete there wallets all the time and there's a limited supply of bit-coins.
If you factor in time bit-coin can only go up as long as people are still using it and i have confidence bit-coin will reach wide adoption.
But that wager makes no sense at all since people accidentally delete there wallets all the time and there's a limited supply of bit-coins.
If you factor in time bit-coin can only go up as long as people are still using it and i have confidence bit-coin will reach wide adoption.
A case where it would make sense, if bitcoin ends up worth nothing. It doesn't matter if they're scarce when they're still worth nothing.
I hope it doesn't end up so, luckily I'm not in a position where I need to try and work it out!
I hope it doesn't end up so, luckily I'm not in a position where I need to try and work it out!
The wager makes perfect sense if you don't think BTC will rise again though...
One problem I notice in looking at your linked comment is that your $1,500 prediction was based on no rationale whatsoever. That makes it more of a wish than a prediction.
Sorry to hear that you lost money.
Bitcoins are up against some really big competitors called nation states and supranational unions. It's almost like trying to run a private army. Once you get big enough to impose a threat you will be outlawed, one way or the other. There is no power, no legislature behind bitcoins, so bitcoin holders will lose the regulatory game.
Nation states use their traditional currencies in monetary policies and they depend on their currencies for tax revenues. Not being able to control the amount of bitcoins and not being able to tax them effectively because they flow outside of institutions that can be controlled and because transactions are encrypted means that the bitcoin is a threat to nation states.
Danish tax authorities are currently looking into how bitcoins should be taxed and I think they will follow the Norwegian example and tax them as assets. Most important governments will eventually make life hard on bitcoins either by outlawing them flat out, by out-taxing them or in other ways.
Bitcoins are up against some really big competitors called nation states and supranational unions. It's almost like trying to run a private army. Once you get big enough to impose a threat you will be outlawed, one way or the other. There is no power, no legislature behind bitcoins, so bitcoin holders will lose the regulatory game.
Nation states use their traditional currencies in monetary policies and they depend on their currencies for tax revenues. Not being able to control the amount of bitcoins and not being able to tax them effectively because they flow outside of institutions that can be controlled and because transactions are encrypted means that the bitcoin is a threat to nation states.
Danish tax authorities are currently looking into how bitcoins should be taxed and I think they will follow the Norwegian example and tax them as assets. Most important governments will eventually make life hard on bitcoins either by outlawing them flat out, by out-taxing them or in other ways.
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Sorry, but if you didn't realize this was a strong possibility, you didn't do enough research. I'm cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin, but this has happened before and will happen again.
>> Sorry, but if you didn't realize this was a strong possibility, you didn't do enough research. I'm cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin, but this has happened before and will happen again.
I agree entirely BUT I can see how someone might be misled by all the bitcoin cheerleading.
I agree entirely BUT I can see how someone might be misled by all the bitcoin cheerleading.
>> I agree entirely BUT I can see how someone might be misled by all the bitcoin cheerleading.
I don't. Every time I see the comments on BTC articles, I get the impression the groupthink among BTC optimists is so strong it effectively kills their ability to form an individual opinion. I mean, seriously, why on earth would anyone in their right mind ever think an 'asset' (which isn't even an asset) can rise 200x within a year and not be one gigantic bubble, just because the BTC echo chamber says it's 'the currency of the future', despite the fact that ~100 people hold over ~50% of all BTC, and not much more than 1% of BTC transfers are actually used for actual trades? I'm really lost for words when it comes to the naivity of people (still) holding BTC.
But go ahead, buy the dip, hope for the best, I mean, Winklevoss says it will go to $40K :-/
I don't. Every time I see the comments on BTC articles, I get the impression the groupthink among BTC optimists is so strong it effectively kills their ability to form an individual opinion. I mean, seriously, why on earth would anyone in their right mind ever think an 'asset' (which isn't even an asset) can rise 200x within a year and not be one gigantic bubble, just because the BTC echo chamber says it's 'the currency of the future', despite the fact that ~100 people hold over ~50% of all BTC, and not much more than 1% of BTC transfers are actually used for actual trades? I'm really lost for words when it comes to the naivity of people (still) holding BTC.
But go ahead, buy the dip, hope for the best, I mean, Winklevoss says it will go to $40K :-/
If you only get your investment advice from online commenters you're doing something wrong. Reddit has become particularly bad lately.
So say we all!
The main problem with Bitcoin is the lack of hedging opportunities. Without real derivatives (priced in dollars), it is difficult to protect one self from loss in the event of adverse movement in price. This is also the difference between a established currency and an amateur one.
Have an upvote for your sorrows. It takes guts to admit that in public.
Newton's niece Catherine Conduitt reported that he "lost twenty thousand pounds. Of this, however, he never much liked to hear…" This was a fortune at the time (equivalent to about £2.4 million in present day terms
So you're in good company.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company#Quotations_pr...
So you're in good company.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company#Quotations_pr...
You just have to pick a target. I feel confident that Bitcoin is worth $10k, so if I bought at any price below that, I should feel good about where I am.
If you don't decide what you think something is worth, your subjective experience of investing in it will be a rollercoaster. If you do choose a price target, then you know where you stand at all times, and whether you should buy or sell.
If you don't decide what you think something is worth, your subjective experience of investing in it will be a rollercoaster. If you do choose a price target, then you know where you stand at all times, and whether you should buy or sell.
> If you do choose a price target, then you know where you stand at all times, and whether you should buy or sell.
As well as choosing a price target, you should choose a set of situations that will falsify your price target so you aren't committed to losing all your money on one bet if you're wrong.
As well as choosing a price target, you should choose a set of situations that will falsify your price target so you aren't committed to losing all your money on one bet if you're wrong.
Don't sweat about your mistake. Money comes, money goes.
Lessons learned: timing investments is really hard. Trying to buy from the bottom can be equally stupid.
Personal story: I got a bit of play money when we were acquired. Naive me thought that I understand how the world works. The first months of finance crisis had just happened. In US and selected European countries real estate prices had dropped, but in Finland market hadn't crashed. I reasoned that they eventually will, and it's a bad time to buy an apartment, but a good time to invest to finance stocks because they had already crashed. Among other investments I bought some Citibank stocks -"they are the largest, thus probably the safest". Boy I was naive.
Real estate prices in Finland never crashed, Citibank's free fall had just only started.
Lessons learned: timing investments is really hard. Trying to buy from the bottom can be equally stupid.
Personal story: I got a bit of play money when we were acquired. Naive me thought that I understand how the world works. The first months of finance crisis had just happened. In US and selected European countries real estate prices had dropped, but in Finland market hadn't crashed. I reasoned that they eventually will, and it's a bad time to buy an apartment, but a good time to invest to finance stocks because they had already crashed. Among other investments I bought some Citibank stocks -"they are the largest, thus probably the safest". Boy I was naive.
Real estate prices in Finland never crashed, Citibank's free fall had just only started.
Think that Bitcoin is a zero-sum game. For anyone to gain a dollar, somebody has to lose it. So it's a risky business.
Don't worry; it will rise again. It's already at $550. If you keep on to your BTCs, in a few months it will get back to $1100+. At which point I would suggest you sell some of it and get some money back; $11k seems like a lot of money; the first rule of trading would be to invest as much as you can afford to lose :D
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http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460ztgSzbgBza1gS...
How did you expect the price to keep climbing ? Now you need to wait a few weeks/month until we go back to the normal trend.
How did you expect the price to keep climbing ? Now you need to wait a few weeks/month until we go back to the normal trend.
Give it time. Don't sell just now. Had a similar situation and just choose to wait.
Made a nice profit a year later.
Made a nice profit a year later.
Or, the price could plummet even more. Money invested needs to be disposable, otherwise, it's just too risky an investment right now.
That goes without saying. If you want it safe keep it in a bank where inflation will most likely slowly devalue it.
There's not a lot of options it's either risk it or watch your money slowly rot away.
There's not a lot of options it's either risk it or watch your money slowly rot away.
You're probably not a good candidate for day trading.
I'm in a similar boat as you though so... dem feels.
I'm in a similar boat as you though so... dem feels.
maybe this will cheer you up a bit:
i bought after the last bubble burst, but still to high at a rate of 150$.
BTC continued to fall and dumpled around 100$ for months, but i decided to hold on instead of selling with a loss.
The decision has paid off, i sold at ~1000$.
The decision has paid off, i sold at ~1000$.
Stop watching the price, make sure your private key is backed up somewhere safe, and forget about BTC for a few months / years.
The worst thing you can do is sell now. BTC is extremely volatile, it might go down to $100, but one day it'll be $1,000 again.
The worst thing you can do is sell now. BTC is extremely volatile, it might go down to $100, but one day it'll be $1,000 again.
You don't know that.
We just need to get more businesses to accept it. If Amazon accepted Bitcoin, HELLO BUBBLE 2!
Or you could buy another $10K worth of bitcoins now, then when you break even on the first set, you'll be up $10K.
But can you stomach the possibility of throwing good money after bad? After all, other states could start following China's example.
But can you stomach the possibility of throwing good money after bad? After all, other states could start following China's example.
You're not supposed to 'invest' in bitcoin. I just use it to buy/sell goods and services online and cash them out immediately. Btw your coins are worth 2-3x the USD price in Argentina so go there on vacation.
Sorry for your luck. If I were you, however, I'd hang onto the Bitcoin you have.
If it continues to gain adoption, those coins will rise in price again (don't let temporary drops get to you too much).
Good luck!
If it continues to gain adoption, those coins will rise in price again (don't let temporary drops get to you too much).
Good luck!
You haven't lost anything until you sell. I'm confident it'll start going back up at some point (it's starting to get a lot of vendor attention)
Just hang in there :)
Just hang in there :)
The fact that you're interested in minute-to-minute changes probably illustrates that this quantity of Bitcoin is too risky an asset for you to hold. Good luck.
If you believe in bitcoins, hold onto it.
It's only a loss if you sell it now and never buy bitcoins again, or if this is the highest price bitcoins will ever reach.
It's only a loss if you sell it now and never buy bitcoins again, or if this is the highest price bitcoins will ever reach.
BTC will hit ~$400 before it stabilizes and resumes upward progression.
That sounds reasonable. I've got some money sitting here waiting for something to invest in. I didn't want to get into bitcoin at $1000, but $400 looks pretty reasonable considering past performance.
Still, if China is really getting out of bitcoin, how much does that past performance still eman?
Still, if China is really getting out of bitcoin, how much does that past performance still eman?
China only got in this fall. The price had stabilized around $100; since then there has been a massive increase in merchant adoption, VC investment, popular awareness and userbase. In my opinion, the past two months has absolutely added value to the Bitcoin network, and so I expect it to remain significantly above $100.
What's the reasoning behind that?
Wait a year.
Mint sharing what are you building?
Bitcoin is a threat to the Chinese government's control over the populace so it's not surprising to see this...
Am I the only one whose link has "Authorized=false.html?"...?
Can't get to the article...
Can't get to the article...
An article behind paywall? I'm sorry but I'm disappointed
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Well now, let's hope after all this we can find a stable price, so people can actually use this stuff as a mechanism for transferring money, though I suppose with this China crackdown it's losing some of that appeal even. I guess we're stuck with Western Union forever, nice pivot btw. Telegrams were pretty cool though.
You do know that RMB is not fully convertible right? This is just the government cracking down on a forex loophole; you can still buy bitcoin in China with your $50K/year USD exchange limit (available to all Chinese citizens, foreigners with tax receipts). Of course, you have to take a hit on forex now.
ft.com, source of all amazing paywalls.
Here's the same content from a non-paywall provider: http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1384688...
Here's the same content from a non-paywall provider: http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1384688...
Yeah I don't know how they get away with breaking Google's sacrosanct rule of not sticking content behind a paywall that they make visible to Google.
Anyone visiting from Google sees the full article with no paywall.
You can test this yourself:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c...
You can test this yourself:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c...
I wouldn't even dream of doing this myself, but my friend is using the RefControl Firefox extension which lets you set a Referer header per domain name, and he has set ft.com to send http://plus.google.com as referer. This simply disables the paywall. He says that it works on many other sites as well.
Doesn't work for me. Get the sign up prompt. It may work the first time or two but after that....
That link doesn't send the right referrer for me (I also get the sign up).
If I click through from here I get a silly question and the content:
https://www.google.com/search?q=China+bans+new+Bitcoin+depos...
If I click through from here I get a silly question and the content:
https://www.google.com/search?q=China+bans+new+Bitcoin+depos...
Actually, I had to answer a question in order to see it, having Googled the article. Weird question too, about what kind of accomodation I'd use if I was on holiday in Tanzania!
Cannot read article. Paywall.
Now with this temporary crash what will happen to the farms that heavily invested in ASICS, and that with difficulty will be mining at a loss in weeks? (honest question)
As long as they are making back their electrical costs they have no choice but to continue. Their expensive machine is a sunk cost and they can't return it.
By "ban", I assume they mean "made illegal." The former of course being a euphemism for the latter. A couple questions come to my mind as such.... How will China enforce such a ban? Can China physically or technologically bar access to Bitcoin deposits?
Regardless of the Chinese government's ability to effectively enforce such a ban, the price of Bitcoin has begun another wild (and fascinating) price fluctuation period.
Regardless of the Chinese government's ability to effectively enforce such a ban, the price of Bitcoin has begun another wild (and fascinating) price fluctuation period.
For serious entertainment, Bitcoin markets now are great places to try some day trading rodeo. Instant buy/sell with lots of drama and reasonable depth. Stick with your stop-loss strategy and it's a real adrenalin rush. I trade a small amount up and down and even made 40% profit for the last two weeks just by trying to catch bottoms and selling a little higher. Cheap entertainment IMO.
Same here, done OK just watching the BTCWisdom charts with a few basic indicators. Its good fun...
Yes, Bitcoin dropped 40% today- but keep in mind that on any average day it swings 20%.
If you invest because you believe in the underlying technology, you'll have to ride out the volatility waves until it matures(or dies).
But, it's going to take more than people holding onto their bitcoins and waiting for the value to go up- people need to spend them on things for it to work.
If you invest because you believe in the underlying technology, you'll have to ride out the volatility waves until it matures(or dies).
But, it's going to take more than people holding onto their bitcoins and waiting for the value to go up- people need to spend them on things for it to work.
20% swings over the course of a day is not at all average, and is in fact seen as quite dramatical.
If your digital currency relies on governments accepting a competing currency their own currency - you are going to have a bad time.
Check the latest update at http://www.cryptocurrencylive.com/
Why are you even posting a news site requires paid subscription? I cannot read this article!
The Chinese are just against the trend of leaking Yuan's value to Bitcoin (hence the RMB->BTC restriction), not against the Bitcoin itself. People are still free to bring value in China through Bitcoin! ;)