The Fair Price of a Bitcoin is Zero(neweconomicperspectives.org)
neweconomicperspectives.org
The Fair Price of a Bitcoin is Zero
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/12/fair-price-bitcoin-zero.html
20 comments
So what can you make out of your bitcoins when you melt them down? The argument of the post is that gold-as-money is worth more than gold-as-commodity, and, if gold doesn't have an issuer, its value falls to that of the physical commodity. Because bitcoin, unlike gold, has no use except as a medium of exchange, if a bitcoin's value fell in the same way in the absence of an issuer, unlike gold, bitcoin's value would fall to zero.
One definition of money is "the most marketable commodity" and bitcoin does tend to pass that test. It's rapidly becoming a marketable commodity as so many people will accept it for goods or services.
My point wasn't so much that money has to be a commodity with an underlying value. It was to point out that the notion that "money is an asset to the holder and a liability to the issuer" might be the author's definition of money, but it's not THE ONLY RIGHT definition of money.
If gold can effectively be money, sans minting into coins that means that the earth is the issuer. Do we "owe" the earth an ounce of gold by virtue of having mined it? If so, do we then "owe" the earth a ton of steel for every ton we extract? And what happens if/when that gold or steel leaves the earth on one of the Voyager probes?
I'm making absurd arguments to point out that the author's definition of money is absurd. I'm not trying to troll but to illustrate a point. I think his definition of money works fine when you're issuing bills or notes, but it breaks down when people are using commodity money with none of the "debt" part that gets brought to play with notes.
When people start issuing paper notes redeemable for bitcoins then I'll accept the author's definition of money. But right now people are trading the actual commodity itself so his definition of money falls flat in this circumstance.
My point wasn't so much that money has to be a commodity with an underlying value. It was to point out that the notion that "money is an asset to the holder and a liability to the issuer" might be the author's definition of money, but it's not THE ONLY RIGHT definition of money.
If gold can effectively be money, sans minting into coins that means that the earth is the issuer. Do we "owe" the earth an ounce of gold by virtue of having mined it? If so, do we then "owe" the earth a ton of steel for every ton we extract? And what happens if/when that gold or steel leaves the earth on one of the Voyager probes?
I'm making absurd arguments to point out that the author's definition of money is absurd. I'm not trying to troll but to illustrate a point. I think his definition of money works fine when you're issuing bills or notes, but it breaks down when people are using commodity money with none of the "debt" part that gets brought to play with notes.
When people start issuing paper notes redeemable for bitcoins then I'll accept the author's definition of money. But right now people are trading the actual commodity itself so his definition of money falls flat in this circumstance.
> One definition of money is "the most marketable commodity" and bitcoin does tend to pass that test. It's rapidly becoming a marketable commodity as so many people will accept it for goods or services.
"Rapidly becoming a marketable commodity" is vastly different than being "the most marketable commodity".
"Rapidly becoming a marketable commodity" is vastly different than being "the most marketable commodity".
Agreed, but the definition of money isn't constant worldwide nor for all groups of people even in the same country, and it's definitely not constant through time.
In Nazi Germany everyone used the Reichsmark except for American POWs there, who used cigarettes. Right now in Argentina they use pesos and dollars. Furthermore the official exchange rate set by the government isn't the true exchange rate that you can get on the street. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner-of-war_camp and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_peso
Even here in the US there are plenty of people willing to trade or barter or accept slightly alternative currencies. I might argue that something's money-ness is related to it's acceptance as a medium of exchange. Probably not linearly, but in some way. There are network effects for money just the same as everything else that humans do.
At home I've got US coins that are labelled as dimes but I can take them to quite a few places and exchange them for at least $1.25 in today's paper dollars. Why? They're pre-1965 dimes and they've got some silver and that makes them worth more.
To try and pin down "money" as "absolutely this one thing always and forever" is a bit of a fool's errand because money is as one friend of mine put it a "shared delusion". It's a decidedly human construct and while you can pass laws, you can't actually control people's behavior. If everyone decides that bitcoin is money it doesn't matter what the law says about dollars, they'll be just as worthless as this author thinks bitcoin is now.
In Nazi Germany everyone used the Reichsmark except for American POWs there, who used cigarettes. Right now in Argentina they use pesos and dollars. Furthermore the official exchange rate set by the government isn't the true exchange rate that you can get on the street. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner-of-war_camp and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_peso
Even here in the US there are plenty of people willing to trade or barter or accept slightly alternative currencies. I might argue that something's money-ness is related to it's acceptance as a medium of exchange. Probably not linearly, but in some way. There are network effects for money just the same as everything else that humans do.
At home I've got US coins that are labelled as dimes but I can take them to quite a few places and exchange them for at least $1.25 in today's paper dollars. Why? They're pre-1965 dimes and they've got some silver and that makes them worth more.
To try and pin down "money" as "absolutely this one thing always and forever" is a bit of a fool's errand because money is as one friend of mine put it a "shared delusion". It's a decidedly human construct and while you can pass laws, you can't actually control people's behavior. If everyone decides that bitcoin is money it doesn't matter what the law says about dollars, they'll be just as worthless as this author thinks bitcoin is now.
The process of rapidly becoming a marketable commodity is called monetization.
Bitcoin is in a hypermonetization melt-up phase.
Bitcoin is in a hypermonetization melt-up phase.
> The process of rapidly becoming a marketable commodity is called monetization.
No, its not. That's the process of printing money to pay off a debt. Or the act of a government making something legal tender. It might even be a tenable name for something becoming money (which isn't just a marketable commodity.)
Things often become marketable commodities -- even rapidly, especially when they are newly discovered or new uses are discovered for them -- without becoming money.
> Bitcoin is in a hypermonetization melt-up phase.
What is that even supposed to mean?
No, its not. That's the process of printing money to pay off a debt. Or the act of a government making something legal tender. It might even be a tenable name for something becoming money (which isn't just a marketable commodity.)
Things often become marketable commodities -- even rapidly, especially when they are newly discovered or new uses are discovered for them -- without becoming money.
> Bitcoin is in a hypermonetization melt-up phase.
What is that even supposed to mean?
you are referring to monetization of debt. monetization per se is the process of becoming a money. Mises is a good read.
> (which isn't just _a_ marketable commodity.)
You got that right. It's _the_ marketable commodity.
> What is that even supposed to mean?
A melt-up is the opposite of a melt-down.
> (which isn't just _a_ marketable commodity.)
You got that right. It's _the_ marketable commodity.
> What is that even supposed to mean?
A melt-up is the opposite of a melt-down.
If gold suddenly fell out of favour as a money it would lose more than 90% of its value. Bitcoin would lose 100%. Yes there's a difference but not much.
\o/ this guy gets it!
The fair price of an ounce of gold is one Bitcoin. More or less. Currently.
I found this odd as well. The US Dollar was essentially a unit of weight for much of its early history. Much of the money circulating was in fact silver Spanish dollars, issued by the Spanish empire as a result of the gigantic silver mines in central and southern America. Anyone could bring a unit of gold or silver to the treasury and be issued a silver or gold dollar. It was not a liability of the government in any way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_real_coin#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinage_Act_of_1792
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_real_coin#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinage_Act_of_1792
a) the treasury would take seignorage.
b) money is a free-market good as in your example above. all the government was doing was weights and measures standardization.
c) only fiat (paper) money is a liability of the government because the original deal (FRNs) was that the notes would be exchanged for coin. That is why the note says promise to pay the bearer a dollar (which is a denomination of weight of silver or gold).
b) money is a free-market good as in your example above. all the government was doing was weights and measures standardization.
c) only fiat (paper) money is a liability of the government because the original deal (FRNs) was that the notes would be exchanged for coin. That is why the note says promise to pay the bearer a dollar (which is a denomination of weight of silver or gold).
I'm so tired of every Tom, Dick, and Harry throwing his hat in the ring to declare Bitcoin worthless. Can't we just agree that this is a new thing nobody quite understands and stop making prognostications about it's value or lack thereof?
Let those of us who are interested in furthering the Bitcoin economy do so unencumbered by pundits.
Let those of us who are interested in furthering the Bitcoin economy do so unencumbered by pundits.
These posts are entirely the result of authors who didn't buy bitcoins when they were cheap. They want it to fail, and try to find any flaws in it that they can, because if it succeeds then they'll really feel like shit because they missed out.
There is extreme bias in the news community (on both sides) because of their investment (or lack thereof)... And possibly a certain amount of attempted market manipulation as well.
In other words, almost everyone writing about bitcoins is full of shit. Take everything you read, on all sides of the issue with a grain of salt.
There is extreme bias in the news community (on both sides) because of their investment (or lack thereof)... And possibly a certain amount of attempted market manipulation as well.
In other words, almost everyone writing about bitcoins is full of shit. Take everything you read, on all sides of the issue with a grain of salt.
"These posts are entirely the result of authors who didn't buy bitcoins when they were cheap."
That's nonsense. The post is a result of applying a particular economic theory of how money works to something that is apparently trying to be a form of money. This theory of money might be wrong in general, or it might for some reason not apply to bitcoin specifically. But to dismiss it simply as "bias" is willed stupidity - it is a way of avoiding addressing the actual arguments put forward in the post.
(The specific theory being drawn on in that post is called Modern Monetary Theory; it isn't generally accepted by mainstream economists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory )
That's nonsense. The post is a result of applying a particular economic theory of how money works to something that is apparently trying to be a form of money. This theory of money might be wrong in general, or it might for some reason not apply to bitcoin specifically. But to dismiss it simply as "bias" is willed stupidity - it is a way of avoiding addressing the actual arguments put forward in the post.
(The specific theory being drawn on in that post is called Modern Monetary Theory; it isn't generally accepted by mainstream economists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory )
Furthermore, theories in economics are descriptive. One should not expect with certainty an innovative currency to succeed or fail based on how well it matches a particular theory. When we are in new territory, we should expect a few surprises.
Scientific theories are falsifiable: they make testable predictions.
Austrian Economic theory comes closest to this ideal.
Austrian Economic theory comes closest to this ideal.
And now you've discovered why economics is a social science. It builds models of human behavior. Humans are non-deterministic at this scale. As soon as you build an economic model, it's possible it stops working because its existence influences the behavior of the humans its modeling.
The best model I've found that explains Bitcoin is Moldbug's Monetary theory.
If you had to read just one article I'd recommend http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.in/2011/04/on-monet...
But if you have the time you could read all his articles on economics conveniently collected at moldbuggery.blogspot.com (under economics)
If you had to read just one article I'd recommend http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.in/2011/04/on-monet...
But if you have the time you could read all his articles on economics conveniently collected at moldbuggery.blogspot.com (under economics)
> These posts are entirely the result of authors who didn't buy bitcoins when they were cheap. They want it to fail, and try to find any flaws in it that they can, because if it succeeds then they'll really feel like shit because they missed out.
I see it every day. One of my coworkers used to be into Bitcoin and owned a fair number and then decided to donate them away when they were still a few dollars a pop. These days he can't stop making predictions about how Bitcoin is going to fail and how it's all a bubble and ponzi.
It's unbelievable how some people are unable to deal with their cognitive biases.
I see it every day. One of my coworkers used to be into Bitcoin and owned a fair number and then decided to donate them away when they were still a few dollars a pop. These days he can't stop making predictions about how Bitcoin is going to fail and how it's all a bubble and ponzi.
It's unbelievable how some people are unable to deal with their cognitive biases.
This is how they deal with their cognitive dissonance.
http://www.amazon.com/Mistakes-Were-Made-But-Not/dp/01560339...
http://www.amazon.com/Mistakes-Were-Made-But-Not/dp/01560339...
There's only been one rational post on Bitcoin in the last fortnight:
http://blog.samaltman.com/thoughts-on-bitcoin
http://blog.samaltman.com/thoughts-on-bitcoin
... on HN
Things are worth what people are willing to pay (or trade) for them. What's a dollar worth? How about a Linden dollar, or WoW gold? What about rare stamps, or collectible coins, or baseball cards? All of those things are objectively worthless, yet they have value because humans imbue them with value.
Economics is like quantum physics: if you claim to understand it, you don't understand it. Let the experiment play out, and caveat emptor.
Economics is like quantum physics: if you claim to understand it, you don't understand it. Let the experiment play out, and caveat emptor.
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> Let those of us who are interested in furthering the Bitcoin economy do so unencumbered by pundits.
Bitcoin would be much more encumbered if it wasn't relevant enough for the pundits to pontificate on it.
Bitcoin would be much more encumbered if it wasn't relevant enough for the pundits to pontificate on it.
If you think of the Bitcoin system itself as the issuer, the system itself promises to accept transaction fees -- ostensibly a bounty on verifying the transaction. So BTC are a liability of the Bitcoin system. QED.
Thus, instead of a debt-based economy, it will be a verification based economy.. which is a little funky, and I don't know if there are models for it yet.
/mostly-tongue-in-cheek
Thus, instead of a debt-based economy, it will be a verification based economy.. which is a little funky, and I don't know if there are models for it yet.
/mostly-tongue-in-cheek
We do understand it bitcoin.
You can think of bitcoin as "backed" by speculators. It has a market price, because speculators will give you other currencies for it. That is what makes it useful for value transfer (trade).
And the more it is demanded for trade, the more liquid it will be, leading to less volatility and less risk for speculators.
Whether the price holds up in the long run or crashes to near-zero is impossible to predict. But it is now safe to say that it could go either way. It depends on the choices of people and governments.
Bitcoin has already proven (or very close) that digital currency that is purely a financial asset (not demanded for jewelry, industrial use, or taxes) is viable.
I don't see how bitcoin not meeting certain a priori definitions that were created before digital currency was even a possibility, are relevant. It seems likely to me that the blogger is either confused about abstract ideas relate to reality, or is dishonest.
You can think of bitcoin as "backed" by speculators. It has a market price, because speculators will give you other currencies for it. That is what makes it useful for value transfer (trade).
And the more it is demanded for trade, the more liquid it will be, leading to less volatility and less risk for speculators.
Whether the price holds up in the long run or crashes to near-zero is impossible to predict. But it is now safe to say that it could go either way. It depends on the choices of people and governments.
Bitcoin has already proven (or very close) that digital currency that is purely a financial asset (not demanded for jewelry, industrial use, or taxes) is viable.
I don't see how bitcoin not meeting certain a priori definitions that were created before digital currency was even a possibility, are relevant. It seems likely to me that the blogger is either confused about abstract ideas relate to reality, or is dishonest.
Jews and Gentiles in Moldbug's terminology.
Can you please explain what you are talking about? I have no idea at all what you mean.
So you have people exclaiming that bitcoins are worthless.
Well... there are plenty of people right now spending bitcoins and receiving goods and services in exchange for those bitcoins.
Plenty of things in the world can be considered worthless if you aren't interested in them.
I'm quite happy for people to continue living in a world where sending money goes through several 3rd parties, all taking a cut and adding delays, but I don't want to be one of those people any more.
Plenty of things in the world can be considered worthless if you aren't interested in them.
I'm quite happy for people to continue living in a world where sending money goes through several 3rd parties, all taking a cut and adding delays, but I don't want to be one of those people any more.
Your third sentence could just as easily apply to the Bitcoin network. Miners ( third parties ) take their cut ( transaction fees ) and the processing time is dependent upon the generosity of the fee-payer ( low-fee transactions are left out of blocks until finally swept after hours or days ).
You don't have a way to pay someone else BTC without participating in the system at least once.
I'm excited by Bitcoin but it isn't financial liberation.
You don't have a way to pay someone else BTC without participating in the system at least once.
I'm excited by Bitcoin but it isn't financial liberation.
You're correct, but the fees are so low and the delay is so small as to be negligible (in comparison).
Hmm, "Death of the Internet Predicted"? Seriously, are there one or two succinct points to this article? Is it saying:
- The author thinks Bitcoin users are either irrelevant crackpots (anarchists/libertarians) or criminals?
- Gold is valuable and Bitcoins are not because digging in the ground is fundamentally more valuable than discovering large prime factors of numbers?
- The author doesn’t like the properties of Bitcoin, or Bitcoin is not useful to national governments because they can’t control it (not a monetary instrument, can’t reduce supply, etc)?
- The author believes Bitcoin is doomed to collapse to essentially no value?
- The author believes people who engage in Bitcoin trading are involved in a Ponzi scheme?
I’m not sure what the point is, but to be fair, I’m not sure it matters. Bitcoin is useful for those who value its properties, and there are many people who do. No one can wave off these people by labeling them as money launderers, anarchists, or Ponzi schemers (which I don’t think is even true); nor will such statements, or analyses such as this article, prevent anyone from trading Bitcoin, buying or selling with Bitcoin, or holding Bitcoin. And since Bitcoins are fungible and becoming ever more so as time goes on, regulations and laws will prove difficult-to-impossible to enforce, in a manner very similar to P2P file-sharing (but with all the technical lessons of P2P sharing now learned).
You might bet against Bitcoin specifically because of one or more technical flaws, but digital currencies in some form, and specifically currencies not controlled by any nation or corporation, are here to stay.
- The author thinks Bitcoin users are either irrelevant crackpots (anarchists/libertarians) or criminals?
- Gold is valuable and Bitcoins are not because digging in the ground is fundamentally more valuable than discovering large prime factors of numbers?
- The author doesn’t like the properties of Bitcoin, or Bitcoin is not useful to national governments because they can’t control it (not a monetary instrument, can’t reduce supply, etc)?
- The author believes Bitcoin is doomed to collapse to essentially no value?
- The author believes people who engage in Bitcoin trading are involved in a Ponzi scheme?
I’m not sure what the point is, but to be fair, I’m not sure it matters. Bitcoin is useful for those who value its properties, and there are many people who do. No one can wave off these people by labeling them as money launderers, anarchists, or Ponzi schemers (which I don’t think is even true); nor will such statements, or analyses such as this article, prevent anyone from trading Bitcoin, buying or selling with Bitcoin, or holding Bitcoin. And since Bitcoins are fungible and becoming ever more so as time goes on, regulations and laws will prove difficult-to-impossible to enforce, in a manner very similar to P2P file-sharing (but with all the technical lessons of P2P sharing now learned).
You might bet against Bitcoin specifically because of one or more technical flaws, but digital currencies in some form, and specifically currencies not controlled by any nation or corporation, are here to stay.
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As I grow tired of journalists publishing their shortsighted opinions of Bitcoin, it is refreshing to see a critic employ a model to make his point. I don't know anything about Modern Monetary Theory, and I'm not sure that it's even a valid model for Bitcoin, but at the very least it resembles the type of thinking we need more of (i.e. thinking with models).
Cryptocurrency is a brilliant thing, but we need a better way to model its place in our world. I'd like to see someone develop a first-principles model to help us better understand the consequences of decentralized cryptocurrency. The right model could highlight the areas where more development or reform are needed.
Cryptocurrency is a brilliant thing, but we need a better way to model its place in our world. I'd like to see someone develop a first-principles model to help us better understand the consequences of decentralized cryptocurrency. The right model could highlight the areas where more development or reform are needed.
> They should be easy to create (bitcoins are) BUT ALSO easy to destroy if demand declines;
You can provably destroy bitcoins by sending them to an address with no private key (this is provable). Believe it or not, this is actually useful for stuff like http://www.proofofexistence.com/
Hence the premise of this article, even if you take the underlying economic theory at face-value, is flawed.
You can provably destroy bitcoins by sending them to an address with no private key (this is provable). Believe it or not, this is actually useful for stuff like http://www.proofofexistence.com/
Hence the premise of this article, even if you take the underlying economic theory at face-value, is flawed.
How do you prove that an address has no private key?
The actual number of public addresses that correspond to the generated group from the elliptical curve function is not 2^256, but slightly lower, since the cardinality of the group needs to be a prime number. Hence, if it's in that small gap, it would provably have no private key.
>The structure of the payment system, not bitcoins, is actually what makes the bitcoin project so successful.
Isn't this statement just as valid when applied to USD?
Isn't this statement just as valid when applied to USD?
Seems all currency is a ponzi scheme. Even gold is valuable only due to scarcity and peoples desire to have it. It's been currency for thousands of years and only recently has it been used in industry. That said, I keep expecting this bitcoin bubble to burst and it keeps going up. Could it stabilize as a true global currency, I doubt it, but maybe.
Gold become desirable because it is an ideal metal to use for jewelry. That came first and its use as a currency came second. In that sense, it has been used in industry longer that it has been a currency.
Excellent point, I wouldn't however use USD, EUR, or RMB for jewelry. The point remains that BTC has no less intrinsic value than any fiat currency. As soon as we promise each other work in exchange for something that thing gains value. In a sense BTC is more like gold than dollars because it is mined into circulation, rather than being conjured into existence by a central bank.
Isn't that argument just turtles all the way down, though? If people stopped wanting jewelry, gold would not be desirable.
Excellent post, although as usual the title could be a be less sensational and more precise.
"Bitcoins are Purely Speculative Assets" would be an excellent line from the article to use as a title. Or perhaps as a comment put it: "Bitcoins are an Intangible Commodity Asset"
"Bitcoins are Purely Speculative Assets" would be an excellent line from the article to use as a title. Or perhaps as a comment put it: "Bitcoins are an Intangible Commodity Asset"
I agree it was a great post from someone who doesn't necessarily understand the finer points of bitcoin, but does understand money writ large. I think the comments section actually ironed out a fair amount of the misinfo, etc. I quite liked it.
To follow the logic of this article, it could just as easily be titled "the fair price of gold is zero."
Gold billion has no value as a monetary instrument. But obviously it, like Bitcoin, has value as a unit of account because it is scarce.
Gold billion has no value as a monetary instrument. But obviously it, like Bitcoin, has value as a unit of account because it is scarce.
You're correct which is why he compares bitcoins to commodities instead of currency and declares it a "purely speculative asset."
Note that saying it has no fair price as a currency by no means implies it's worthless. It's just that its worth is purely speculative like any intangible asset like art, intellectual property (e.g.: patents), wine (or at least "valuable" wine whose cost bears no resemblance to how much it cost to produce).
Think of it this way: bitcoin isn't a currency you buy goods with; bitcoin is a commodity you barter with. It's just a far more convenient commodity than chunks of gold or pieces of art.
Note that saying it has no fair price as a currency by no means implies it's worthless. It's just that its worth is purely speculative like any intangible asset like art, intellectual property (e.g.: patents), wine (or at least "valuable" wine whose cost bears no resemblance to how much it cost to produce).
Think of it this way: bitcoin isn't a currency you buy goods with; bitcoin is a commodity you barter with. It's just a far more convenient commodity than chunks of gold or pieces of art.
The price of a Bitcoin is the amount of other resource (possibly a more traditional currency, like electrum or cocoa beans ;) ) that two parties can agree to trade at.
What's fairness?
What's fairness?
also, the internet is worthless. just photos of cats, you know.
Doesn't measuring BitCoin in dollars kinda beat the purpose of BitCoin?
No, it does not. Why would it? The point of a currency is to be exchangeable into any other good. That includes dollars.
...does "new economic perspectives" mean wrong ones? This article is lunacy. I started to skim it, but after the fifth or sixth ridiculously wrong assertion in as many sentences, I stopped. This article is so, so wrong.
It's littered with idiosyncratic phrases and simply incorrect definitions. For example:
> Second, all financial instruments have a fair value that is defined as the discount value of future streams of monetary payments.
There's a grain of truth in there. Let's give the correct definition from Wikipedia:
> In finance, discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a method of valuing a project, company, or asset using the concepts of the time value of money. All future cash flows are estimated and discounted to give their present values (PVs)—the sum of all future cash flows, both incoming and outgoing, is the net present value (NPV), which is taken as the value or price of the cash flows in question.
In other words, it's nothing to do with "financial instruments"; it's how you value any asset. And it's not the "fair value" it's just one of many ways of valuing things. And it's not "the discount value" (as if there were only one), nor is it just "monetary payments"; rather it's all cash flows, in every direction, each one discounted appropriately.
And so on, and so forth. The author makes a big point of arguing that they aren't financial instruments so much as they are real assets. There's some truth to this; if I own a bitcoin nobody is obligated to give me anything in exchange; it doesn't exist as a liability on anyone's balance sheet. And? The same is true of a gold ingot. Or, largely, or a share of Apple stock; nobody is obligated to give you anything for that share. By the same logic, the "fair" value of gold (or Apple stock) is zero. Hell, the same logic would indicate the fair value of a Euro is zero. After all, nobody is actually obligated to give me anything for a Euro. I don't live in the EU, I have no EU debts, and no stores around here accept Euros. It's worthless! Except, you know, for the part where there's a large, liquid market where I can trade Euros for my local currency.
> Now what is the fair value of a bitcoin? It does not provide any income (Y = 0), it has no maturity given that it is not a financial instrument. For the sake of argument, we might assume that their maturity is infinite because we are stuck with them forever once they are created.
Taken literally, this means that you cannot sell a bitcoin. I would suggest that this is not true. You can actually sell bitcoins. People do this every day! In which case we plug in the expected value of the future sale in his fancy equation, discount it appropriately to account for the time value of money and the uncertainty of how much I'll get when I sell it, and find that...
...bitcoins aren't worthless. Huh, who knew?
It's littered with idiosyncratic phrases and simply incorrect definitions. For example:
> Second, all financial instruments have a fair value that is defined as the discount value of future streams of monetary payments.
There's a grain of truth in there. Let's give the correct definition from Wikipedia:
> In finance, discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a method of valuing a project, company, or asset using the concepts of the time value of money. All future cash flows are estimated and discounted to give their present values (PVs)—the sum of all future cash flows, both incoming and outgoing, is the net present value (NPV), which is taken as the value or price of the cash flows in question.
In other words, it's nothing to do with "financial instruments"; it's how you value any asset. And it's not the "fair value" it's just one of many ways of valuing things. And it's not "the discount value" (as if there were only one), nor is it just "monetary payments"; rather it's all cash flows, in every direction, each one discounted appropriately.
And so on, and so forth. The author makes a big point of arguing that they aren't financial instruments so much as they are real assets. There's some truth to this; if I own a bitcoin nobody is obligated to give me anything in exchange; it doesn't exist as a liability on anyone's balance sheet. And? The same is true of a gold ingot. Or, largely, or a share of Apple stock; nobody is obligated to give you anything for that share. By the same logic, the "fair" value of gold (or Apple stock) is zero. Hell, the same logic would indicate the fair value of a Euro is zero. After all, nobody is actually obligated to give me anything for a Euro. I don't live in the EU, I have no EU debts, and no stores around here accept Euros. It's worthless! Except, you know, for the part where there's a large, liquid market where I can trade Euros for my local currency.
> Now what is the fair value of a bitcoin? It does not provide any income (Y = 0), it has no maturity given that it is not a financial instrument. For the sake of argument, we might assume that their maturity is infinite because we are stuck with them forever once they are created.
Taken literally, this means that you cannot sell a bitcoin. I would suggest that this is not true. You can actually sell bitcoins. People do this every day! In which case we plug in the expected value of the future sale in his fancy equation, discount it appropriately to account for the time value of money and the uncertainty of how much I'll get when I sell it, and find that...
...bitcoins aren't worthless. Huh, who knew?
> And so on, and so forth. The author makes a big point of arguing that they aren't financial instruments so much as they are real assets. There's some truth to this; if I own a bitcoin nobody is obligated to give me anything in exchange; it doesn't exist as a liability on anyone's balance sheet. And? The same is true of a gold ingot. Or, largely, or a share of Apple stock; nobody is obligated to give you anything for that share. By the same logic, the "fair" value of gold (or Apple stock) is zero.
Gold has some intrinsic value. If nothing else, it has some industrial uses. Bitcoin has no comparable intrinsic value.
Owning a share of AAPL common stock has value. You get voting rights in the company. You also have a claim to Apple's assets, although with a lower priority than any bondholders or other creditors. So owning AAPL shares does come with obligations from Apple.
Euros (or dollars) also have some value as fiat currencies. You can pay debts and taxes in euros. The government has an obligation to accept euros as payment for taxes. So essentially these currencies are your ticket to stay out of jail.
Bitcoin doesn't share any of these qualities with gold, AAPL, or euros. That was the author's point and it still stands.
Gold has some intrinsic value. If nothing else, it has some industrial uses. Bitcoin has no comparable intrinsic value.
Owning a share of AAPL common stock has value. You get voting rights in the company. You also have a claim to Apple's assets, although with a lower priority than any bondholders or other creditors. So owning AAPL shares does come with obligations from Apple.
Euros (or dollars) also have some value as fiat currencies. You can pay debts and taxes in euros. The government has an obligation to accept euros as payment for taxes. So essentially these currencies are your ticket to stay out of jail.
Bitcoin doesn't share any of these qualities with gold, AAPL, or euros. That was the author's point and it still stands.
> Gold has some intrinsic value. If nothing else, it has some industrial uses.
The value of gold is not based on its intrinsic industrial uses. It shares this characteristic with bitcoins.
> So owning AAPL shares does come with obligations from Apple.
Not in the sense OP used. He was very explicit:
> One is that they are convertible into something else, another is that the issuer will accept them as final means of payment from his debtors.
Apple stock is not convertible on demand into gold or cash, nor is Apple obligated to accept Apple stock in payment of its debts. By OPs definitions, Apple stock is not a financial instrument, and thus has no value. (Note: Of course, as ever, OP has used an incorrect definition, but that's neither here nor there.)
But again, according to OP Apple stock is not a financial instrument; it shares this characteristic with bitcoins.
> You can pay debts and taxes in euros.
No, I actually can't, no more than I can pay them in bitcoins. If I had some Euros I could trade them for my local currency and use that to pay my debts and taxes, but the same is true for bitcoins. We can argue that the market for euros is much more stable and liquid than the market for bitcoins (very true!), but this is a difference of degree, not a difference of kind.
The differences between bitcoins and gold, euros, or Apple shares are real and significant, but OP has failed to articulate them.
The value of gold is not based on its intrinsic industrial uses. It shares this characteristic with bitcoins.
> So owning AAPL shares does come with obligations from Apple.
Not in the sense OP used. He was very explicit:
> One is that they are convertible into something else, another is that the issuer will accept them as final means of payment from his debtors.
Apple stock is not convertible on demand into gold or cash, nor is Apple obligated to accept Apple stock in payment of its debts. By OPs definitions, Apple stock is not a financial instrument, and thus has no value. (Note: Of course, as ever, OP has used an incorrect definition, but that's neither here nor there.)
But again, according to OP Apple stock is not a financial instrument; it shares this characteristic with bitcoins.
> You can pay debts and taxes in euros.
No, I actually can't, no more than I can pay them in bitcoins. If I had some Euros I could trade them for my local currency and use that to pay my debts and taxes, but the same is true for bitcoins. We can argue that the market for euros is much more stable and liquid than the market for bitcoins (very true!), but this is a difference of degree, not a difference of kind.
The differences between bitcoins and gold, euros, or Apple shares are real and significant, but OP has failed to articulate them.
You can't claim that the Euro isn't a financial instrument just because you don't live in Europe. They are issued by the European Central Bank and national central banks of Eurosystem members, who in turn share the liability (explained briefly here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro#Issuing_modalities_for_ban...).
This makes the Euro a traditional currency which bitcoin isn't. That's not to say bitcoin is worthless, since its value is really whatever someone is willing to pay for it.
This makes the Euro a traditional currency which bitcoin isn't. That's not to say bitcoin is worthless, since its value is really whatever someone is willing to pay for it.
> You can't claim that the Euro isn't a financial instrument just because you don't live in Europe.
Indeed, I can't claim that. Nor am I. It definitely is!
> This makes the Euro a traditional currency which bitcoin isn't. That's not to say bitcoin is worthless, since its value is really whatever someone is willing to pay for it.
I don't think we disagree. :)
Indeed, I can't claim that. Nor am I. It definitely is!
> This makes the Euro a traditional currency which bitcoin isn't. That's not to say bitcoin is worthless, since its value is really whatever someone is willing to pay for it.
I don't think we disagree. :)
Wouldn't the same logic also lead to the inevitable conclusion that the (fair) value of gold is zero?
Given that people pay real money for BTC, perhaps it is time to question the theory.
Btw, I found this really amusing: apparently the Tulip Mania never actually happened, or at least nobody knows for sure and lots of things seem to indicate that it didn't happen (overpriced tulips happened, but not a mania that made the common people join the frenzy and drove everybody to bankruptcy). It's on Wikipedia (the German version seems to be more clear about it, though).
Given that people pay real money for BTC, perhaps it is time to question the theory.
Btw, I found this really amusing: apparently the Tulip Mania never actually happened, or at least nobody knows for sure and lots of things seem to indicate that it didn't happen (overpriced tulips happened, but not a mania that made the common people join the frenzy and drove everybody to bankruptcy). It's on Wikipedia (the German version seems to be more clear about it, though).
This is clearly low-quality flame-bait IMHO. Sophisticated math in the middle doesn't impress me.
EDIT: Some context: "First, all financial instruments are accounting creatures. They are the asset of the bearer and the liability of the issuer. Gold coins were the liability of, e.g., the King, Federal Reserve notes are liability of the Federal Reserve, and coins are the liability of the Treasury."
An ounce of gold is worth a lot even prior to being minted into a coin. As such you could melt it, cut it in half, etc and it would retain it's value. That means it might technically be the liability of the government or the king, but practically speaking they're not. I could buy krugerrands, francs, golden eagles or whatever, melt them down and make jewelry out of them and it doesn't screw up the books of any of their issuers.