Seth Shostak From SETI: We WILL Find Aliens In Space(singularityhub.com)
singularityhub.com
Seth Shostak From SETI: We WILL Find Aliens In Space
http://singularityhub.com/2012/07/23/seth-shostak-from-seti-we-will-find-aliens-in-space/
9 comments
On top of that, the USPS is pretty good.
The USPS is terrible.
Please explain. I love the USPS. It's cheap and fast. IMHO. YMMV.
People literally ship gold through the US Mail: it's that secure.
People literally ship gold through the US Mail: it's that secure.
It's regional. I've had excellent and awful service from the USPS, UPS, and Fedex.
It's a soundbite analogy suggesting that the Government isn't generally terribly organised and covering up something as huge as aliens not only existing but already having been among us isn't likely. Considering what he does for a living Seth must get asked this question loads and this is a convenient way to get his point across without having to have a long winded discussion every time on the complexities or unlikelihood of a cover up of this magnitude.
> But all jokes aside, the reason we haven’t met any aliens yet could just be because they don’t care about us – maybe we’re not an advanced-enough civilization to interest them for a visit.
> Whatever the case may be, Shostak is on guard and ready for any signal should/when it comes in. In the meantime, we’ve got some work to do if we’d like to prove to our cosmic-brothers that were any smarter than the dinosaurs. Aside from a few stints on the moon, mankind has barely left the rock we arose from.
Why is the assumption that travel through space is the litmus test of intelligence? That's making a pretty broad assumption about an alien intelligence whose motivations, as they say in the previous paragraph, may well be literally inconceivable.
Maybe they'd be more impressed with us figuring out how to co-exist without warfare, or how to understand our own minds, or how to master our physical bodies so that disease isn't a problem, or some other criteria.
> Whatever the case may be, Shostak is on guard and ready for any signal should/when it comes in. In the meantime, we’ve got some work to do if we’d like to prove to our cosmic-brothers that were any smarter than the dinosaurs. Aside from a few stints on the moon, mankind has barely left the rock we arose from.
Why is the assumption that travel through space is the litmus test of intelligence? That's making a pretty broad assumption about an alien intelligence whose motivations, as they say in the previous paragraph, may well be literally inconceivable.
Maybe they'd be more impressed with us figuring out how to co-exist without warfare, or how to understand our own minds, or how to master our physical bodies so that disease isn't a problem, or some other criteria.
My same reaction.
I would be more impressed by us if we treated each other well, and all were fed, clothed, sheltered, healthy, and free of existential anxiety.
"Look, I can see the wars from up here."
I would be more impressed by us if we treated each other well, and all were fed, clothed, sheltered, healthy, and free of existential anxiety.
"Look, I can see the wars from up here."
There are people on Earth who try to communicate with dolphins and apes. Unless there were some kind of, er, directive against attempting communication, some enterprising individuals in the advanced civilization would try to contact us.
Unless the desire to communicate with other intelligences is a uniquely human/mammalian trait.
Once you've begged to the question of "they may not be like us at all" you can't make any predictions.
The best model we have for them is that they are like us. This may not be right, but we have more examples of "us" (1) than "not us" (0).
The best model we have for them is that they are like us. This may not be right, but we have more examples of "us" (1) than "not us" (0).
Well, as per your previous example, apes are kind of like us, dolphins and whales not quite so much, elephants seem to exhibit some similar behaviors that point towards a budding consciousness, and who the hell knows what's going on inside a parrot's brain?
But you're right, my argument is a bit of a cop-out, but I think it's better to assume that our first contact is going to be baffling, rather than smugly reassure a reporter that Space Men From Beyond are just decades away from shaking our hands.
But you're right, my argument is a bit of a cop-out, but I think it's better to assume that our first contact is going to be baffling, rather than smugly reassure a reporter that Space Men From Beyond are just decades away from shaking our hands.
Apparently, if an identical radio-Earth existed somewhere, current SETI hardware could detect it at about 1000 ly distance. Within 1K ly there are a few million stars, and an exhaustive search of that space could be done in a decade or two (assuming a reasonable expansion of computing power). We are far from exhausting our own neighborhood, let alone the galaxy (100K ly) or farther-away places (Andromeda is 2.5mil ly distant).
Edit: it may be reasonable to assume that a civilization's radio footprint does not expand much from our current level, since point-to-point optical (or higher) communication has vastly better bandwidth options. Even on our Earth, the vast quantity of information flows through ground-based wires rather than wirelessly.
Edit: it may be reasonable to assume that a civilization's radio footprint does not expand much from our current level, since point-to-point optical (or higher) communication has vastly better bandwidth options. Even on our Earth, the vast quantity of information flows through ground-based wires rather than wirelessly.
Apparently, if an identical radio-Earth existed somewhere, current SETI hardware could detect it at about 1000 ly distance.
What's the rationalization for this? Is our radio footprint really so powerful as to not be drowned out by 1000 ly worth of background radiation?
What's the rationalization for this? Is our radio footprint really so powerful as to not be drowned out by 1000 ly worth of background radiation?
I think it depends on the wavelength, doesn't it? I can see a pie in the oven, despite all of the infrared background radiation surrounding it.
Well, if the identical radio-earth started transmitting 1000 years ago, they could...
Sometimes I wish all the SETI@home processing power would instead be focused on Folding@home. I think the likelihood of SETI finding alien life is pretty slim.
The satellites and other technology that SETI uses is pretty interesting though and I imagine they make enough (non-alien-life) discoveries to make it worthwhile.
The satellites and other technology that SETI uses is pretty interesting though and I imagine they make enough (non-alien-life) discoveries to make it worthwhile.
How did this get on Hacker News? This is one man's opinion of what MIGHT happen within some vaguely specified time in the future, and it's quite a bold assertion. There is overwhelming evidence that the chances of us detecting alien life with our current radio telescopes (or even ones 10x as powerful) is slim to none. We're just beginning to scratch the surface of our own galaxy, but there are countless billions more. I suspect that if we ever do detect alien life (if it exists at all), it will be many, many generations from now when we might possibly (hopefully) have a collaborative effort towards a global space program with a lot more focus than current space programs are getting today.
Size isn't the only problem. Time is the bigger issue. The likelihood of there being something else out there is one thing. The chance that they've been active enough during a time in which we're looking for them is vanishingly small. Look at it this way, what if they died out just before the first telescopes were created here on earth? Or what if they're active right now? We won't see any signs of them for hundreds of years.
Space is big, sure, but time is even more vast.
Whoops, missed them by that much...
Space is big, sure, but time is even more vast.
Whoops, missed them by that much...
This is _the_ definition of talking your own book!
Like fusion or a cure for cancer the break through is always 'a few decades away'. Which is a promise that conveniently meets the dual criteria a) soon enough to continue to attract funding b) far enough in the future to allow the current cohort of scientists to reach retirement.
This argument irritates me every time I hear it. Let me make an equivalent substitution:
"Do Americans really believe the same government that increasingly and permanently collects everything that they say and do while bathing them in propagada without them ever realizing it is covering up alien life?"
Government is people, and people pay a lot more attention when money or power are involved. In fact, it's such a straw man argument that always have to wonder if the purveyor actually believes the opposite.
Kinda makes me want to adjust my tin foil hat and pay more attention to the night sky.