Peter Thiel – Full Speech – 2016 Republican National Convention(youtube.com)
youtube.com
Peter Thiel – Full Speech – 2016 Republican National Convention
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTJB8AkT1dk
8 comments
What convinced you to make these predictions? And how far ahead of these events did you predict them?
> What convinced you to make these predictions?
I think this because I believe a great deal of what we call society is cyclical. We're at a point where I think many old ideas are about to be revived.
Talking explicitly about the last prediction will probably get me a hellban but my email is in my profile if you wanted me to elaborate.
> And how far ahead of these events did you predict them?
This is rough, I didn't keep a notebook for them. To do it properly like Scott Alexander I'd have to state a probability and some limit so a failed prediction couldn't be weaseled into a 'prophesy'. To the best of my memory it is this:
In the case of Brexit, at least six months, maybe a year. In the case of Trump, close to half a year. In the case of the same sex marriage, as soon as I heard it proposed, I don't remember when that was. And the civil conflict prediction is about 1-2 years old. Those are highly random difficult to predict events. I think I would have put it into a 'Five Year Plan', and 2016 would be Year 3, so that's 2 years 2 months to go. I increased my confidence when I found out the CIA had the same prognosis on civil conflict in Europe for the same time period.
I think this because I believe a great deal of what we call society is cyclical. We're at a point where I think many old ideas are about to be revived.
Talking explicitly about the last prediction will probably get me a hellban but my email is in my profile if you wanted me to elaborate.
> And how far ahead of these events did you predict them?
This is rough, I didn't keep a notebook for them. To do it properly like Scott Alexander I'd have to state a probability and some limit so a failed prediction couldn't be weaseled into a 'prophesy'. To the best of my memory it is this:
In the case of Brexit, at least six months, maybe a year. In the case of Trump, close to half a year. In the case of the same sex marriage, as soon as I heard it proposed, I don't remember when that was. And the civil conflict prediction is about 1-2 years old. Those are highly random difficult to predict events. I think I would have put it into a 'Five Year Plan', and 2016 would be Year 3, so that's 2 years 2 months to go. I increased my confidence when I found out the CIA had the same prognosis on civil conflict in Europe for the same time period.
What exactly do you mean with "civil conflict"?
Great year for Thiel. First Gawker, then Trump.
i prefer his most recent talk and q&a https://youtu.be/ob-LJqPQEJ4
[deleted]
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413
FWIW I predicted Brexit and Trump. I made 4 predictions this year.
1. Irish same sex marriage would succeed. 2. Brexit would win (with possibility of sabotage). 3. Trump would win the presidency (with a high chance of being assassinated). 4. Civil conflict would break out in Europe (2016-2017).
I'd like to be wrong about the 4th, but that's the one I'm most sure of.