tersh·3 ปีที่แล้ว·discussThe median prediction for whether this gets independently confirmed is sitting at 25%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-supercon...
tersh·3 ปีที่แล้ว·discussYeah, Metaculus trains, identifies, and hires "Metaculus Pro Forecasters" for particular projects: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#what-are-pros
tersh·3 ปีที่แล้ว·discussForecasting in tournaments — head-to-head on the same set of questions — is the true test of forecasting ability.