Consoles are very likely to thrive for the next generation. China finally lifted the ban on game consoles and I'm starting to see Xbox One / PS4 being sold in different retail stores.
Even though it's still a tough sell for most Chinese (remember, no one pays for games here, at least not upfront), they'll come around.
Personally I just don't understand why everyone worries so much about all these surveillance announcements.
People contribute with personal data to help increase the security of a nation. I don't consider that as an act of spying from government, I call that "Crowd Funding" from the people, for global security.
But well, I'm an optimist and I assume there are doing this for the right reasons.
"Sellers shouldn't be shocked that projects should fail -- and so shouldn't offer rewards that depend on success to be deliverable."
This is actually an excellent point, but...
The reasoning behind this "pre-sale" approach is about the perceived value of the reward. An traditional gift might be acceptable (T-Shirts, etc) but there is something unique about being offered something that's not on the market yet. It makes the customer feel special, something they might be able to brag about if the product is a success.
Something akin to the concept of "Collector Edition" in the game industry.
That will add value to a reward, will attract more customer an in turn increase the chances of a successful campaign (even though successful campaign does not mean successful product).
It is a good way to kickstart a business.
Riskier? Yes.
Short sighted? Yes and no (Actually no).
Short term cost is 0 (great), long term cost is your manufacturing cost + distribution cost (ouch).
That doesn't seem right?
Actually it is.
You're actually paying for:
+ User acquisition
+ Early product validation (Lean Startup)
+ Momentum
+ Beta testing for the whole product pipeline and the product itself
I think that as a company it is definitively worth the risk.
You have to be able to take risks sometimes in order to be successful.
Even though it's still a tough sell for most Chinese (remember, no one pays for games here, at least not upfront), they'll come around.