Ask HN: Should I wait for Tesla?
I want to buy a new car because my used one causes problems and I have plenty of money. My concern is about Tesla changing the whole market in a few years and having this brand new gas guzzler that I'll have to replace pretty soon. Should I wait for Tesla to come out with the Bluestar? Should I go ahead and buy something now? What would you do?
7 comments
ICE vehicles won't be disappearing any time soon and it'll be quite a while before the Bluestar goes into production (I'm guessing 2018). I almost bought a Model S last year (made a deposit) but reluctantly backed out. (I bought the stock instead -- at $33). I'll definitely buy one in the future once it passes the "early adapter" phase.
Although people buying today are enjoying the attention of owning the coolest car on the planet, the price is definitely inflated simply because it has to be... The costs associated with starting a car company are astronomical! Once they reach equalibrium, these costs will come down and the prices will follow. In fact, it's not hard to imagine that EV's will ultimately become much cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles (far fewer parts).
With that said, if I were you, I would buy a nice ICE and wait a few years for the EV prices to come down. Of course, if everyone did that the prices would never come down! What you do depends on your circumstances.
Although people buying today are enjoying the attention of owning the coolest car on the planet, the price is definitely inflated simply because it has to be... The costs associated with starting a car company are astronomical! Once they reach equalibrium, these costs will come down and the prices will follow. In fact, it's not hard to imagine that EV's will ultimately become much cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles (far fewer parts).
With that said, if I were you, I would buy a nice ICE and wait a few years for the EV prices to come down. Of course, if everyone did that the prices would never come down! What you do depends on your circumstances.
Buy a 1-2 year old car in excellent condition, keep it for a few years, then sell it for almost as much as much as you paid, and get another. No upcoming development is going to change the automotive industry such that a used car in good condition will not be worth something.
Pro tip: this is good advice for buying any type of car at any time.
Pro tip: this is good advice for buying any type of car at any time.
Do you embrace new technology or wait for it to get better before you jump in? The answer to this is the same as your car buying question.
I would base my decision on whether getting an 'all electric' car would still allow to fulfill my transportation needs. For example: I live in the SF bay area and most of my drives are within +/- 100 miles so having a 200 mile radius on a vehicle would probably cover my daily needs. However, a few times a year I drive my car on longer trips (Portland, Reno, LA) so I would probably need wait for Tesla's supercharger/battery replacement network to expand before I can get rid of my gas guzzler.
Also keep in mind that Teslas in their current state are still 'early adopter' vehicles, which means it will take some more time before all the shortcomings are smoothen out.
However, if you are OK with limited range and open to embrace new technology despite its possible setbacks, the Tesla is probably the best choice out there since their focus has been on electric cars from the beginning and it's safe to say that they have most experience building electric cars so far.
Also keep in mind that Teslas in their current state are still 'early adopter' vehicles, which means it will take some more time before all the shortcomings are smoothen out.
However, if you are OK with limited range and open to embrace new technology despite its possible setbacks, the Tesla is probably the best choice out there since their focus has been on electric cars from the beginning and it's safe to say that they have most experience building electric cars so far.
"However, a few times a year I drive my car on longer trips (Portland, Reno, LA) so I would probably need wait for Tesla's supercharger/battery replacement network to expand before I can get rid of my gas guzzler."
If it is only a few times a year, why not just rent a car? Seems like an obvious solution. If it was once a month then I could see the hesitation but once every 3 or 4 months that you need a rental shouldn't be a big deal.
If it is only a few times a year, why not just rent a car? Seems like an obvious solution. If it was once a month then I could see the hesitation but once every 3 or 4 months that you need a rental shouldn't be a big deal.
A brand new car is going to depreciate rapidly in value and start to accumulate wear and tear whether Tesla disrupts the market or not.
> I have plenty of money
If that's as true as you claim, why wait for the 'cheap' Tesla Bluestar? Jump in with both feet and get a Model S!
On a more practical note; if you're worried about compatibility, it's Tesla, the brand that's inventing the field entirely - at worst there will be adapters to allow backwards compatibility, but more likely the current plug is relatively future proof.
If it's the battery-swap tech; that works on current Model S's, so that should be no concern either.
My current car is gasoline powered but I do believe it's the last gasoline car I'll own. Only time can tell.
If that's as true as you claim, why wait for the 'cheap' Tesla Bluestar? Jump in with both feet and get a Model S!
On a more practical note; if you're worried about compatibility, it's Tesla, the brand that's inventing the field entirely - at worst there will be adapters to allow backwards compatibility, but more likely the current plug is relatively future proof.
If it's the battery-swap tech; that works on current Model S's, so that should be no concern either.
My current car is gasoline powered but I do believe it's the last gasoline car I'll own. Only time can tell.
I definitely feel like the next 5 years are going to drastically change in the tesla direction.
Which is why i'm waiting.
Which is why i'm waiting.