The Prigozhin Coup seems pretty damn well organized(phillipspobrien.substack.com)
phillipspobrien.substack.com
The Prigozhin Coup seems pretty damn well organized
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-prigozhin-coup-seems-pretty-damn
6 comments
Either the man is suicidal or he has backing that has yet to be revealed. Also, being a mercenary, there's also the possibility he's been bought by a higher bidder.
Apparently, Ukrainian intel had contacts to Prigozhin like a month or so ago. Maybe he has beek turned after being, well, betrayed in Bakhmut. Timing this coup with the Ukrainian counter offensive is sure interesting so.
Two take aways: The Russian invaison of Ukraine was among the most stupid ideas of the 21st century. And Ukraine is playing this whole thing incredibly well.
Two take aways: The Russian invaison of Ukraine was among the most stupid ideas of the 21st century. And Ukraine is playing this whole thing incredibly well.
That may make even more sense. A deal with Ukraine could save him personally and his people. Especially in a post-war setting, where they could be tried for war crimes.
Ukraine is no position to force Putin into a deal though. How's Ukraine going to help him when the Russian air force starts bombing every base Wagner has taken over?
Bombing Russian cities like Rostov or possibly Voronezh is one of the most stupid moves Putin could make.
Putin gave the order to put down Wagner. How can they possibly do that without resorting to shelling the city to rubble? That's the only way Russia has been able to advance in Ukraine, just backing off and shelling towns to dust and then creeping in and, just barely, mopping things up.
Doubt so. Putin able to gain 12T usd worth of Ukrainian land with that SMO. It is absolutely worth it. Obama and Bush would be your most stupid person attempting the invasions of Afghan, Iraq, and Libya (and Syria and Yemen to some extend). All of that is heavily in red which largely bill to American public while the military complex able to have extra swimming pools, some mistresses and maybe engaged in pedo activities.
Prigozhin coup attempt is just too clean which looked almost like a well scripted play. I wait a bit longer to access this. For now just treat it as another drama plot in ongoing SMO. Kiev should be more concern now Wagner is in Belarus with closer striking range to Kiev than at Bakhmut.
Prigozhin coup attempt is just too clean which looked almost like a well scripted play. I wait a bit longer to access this. For now just treat it as another drama plot in ongoing SMO. Kiev should be more concern now Wagner is in Belarus with closer striking range to Kiev than at Bakhmut.
If the CIA isn't at least partially behind this then their competence has been greatly exaggerated. I mean toppling regimes is like their whole thing.
I think that would be extremely risky and therefore unlikely. If the CIA was behind this and this coup fails and it can be proven, it would legitimize the use of nukes following the Russian doctrine. That doesn't mean that Russia would use them, but it would be a significant escalation on the nuclear ladder. Also not something that is really in line with the signalling of the US, which shows acute awareness that everyone loses in a nuclear tit for tat.
It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
I think they have a lot of practice to do work without being seen.
I'm afraid that Russia could nuke Ukraine just to remove a front and focus all its attention on Wagner.
I am no expert, but I don't think that is likely. It would isolate Russia from China and India. But even if the leadership only thinks short-term, Biden has made it pretty clear that that the use of nukes in Ukrain would not be acceptable and that there would be a non-nuclear response. The speculation is the US would wipe out the Russian black sea fleet. Putin would open a third front besides Ukraine and Prigozhin. That is probably the last thing he could use at this moment.
That said, in such unstable situations pretty much anything can happen. It depends on how rational the actors stay.
That said, in such unstable situations pretty much anything can happen. It depends on how rational the actors stay.
Ukrainians are extremely committed to their cause, but without foreign intelligence support their situation would've probably been hopeless from the beginning. In it's core this war is NATO against Russia. So the situation in Ukraine is for sure currently one of the main jobs of the CIA.
> In it's core this war is NATO against Russia.
No, in its core it is a war of Putin and like minded nationalists longing after Great Russia against the Ukrainian people and their right to exist as an independent country, not being slaves like Lukashenko's Belarus. The whole Europe is helping because they know Putin's victory in Ukraine would mean an existential threat to other territories. And most people just want to live in peace.
No, in its core it is a war of Putin and like minded nationalists longing after Great Russia against the Ukrainian people and their right to exist as an independent country, not being slaves like Lukashenko's Belarus. The whole Europe is helping because they know Putin's victory in Ukraine would mean an existential threat to other territories. And most people just want to live in peace.
This is one of the rare cases where I hope that the CIA is behind it. Otherwise, this war could have resulted in destroying a stable, though insular, Russian regime and replacing it with a new maniac. Not that the CIA hasn't empowered people that it then had no control over.
What's funny is that it looks like Putin really has relatively little forces left to defend the inner areas of the country, so if he really wants to fight Prigozhin forces, he at least has to consider using some of the forces deployed to Ukraine. No matter what happens to Russia, this is evidently going to help Ukraine.
I bet China is staring at Siberia on a map and licking its chops.
CIA competence has always been greatly exagerated. They do play on the conspiracy theories, and on a few mysteries.
They are the best at preparing the terrain, and have the advantage of being backed by US elite troops for sabotage and assassination, but each time they were involved in a regime change (or even invasion planning), they were caught.
They are the best at preparing the terrain, and have the advantage of being backed by US elite troops for sabotage and assassination, but each time they were involved in a regime change (or even invasion planning), they were caught.
Ah yeah that's actually an excellent point, we really only know of the things they do that they're terrible at.
As that old saying goes: "When you do things right, people won't be sure that you have done anything at all."
As that old saying goes: "When you do things right, people won't be sure that you have done anything at all."
Don't underestimate the possibility of someone making a big mistake. It would not even be the first Russian big mistake since they crossed the border into Ukraine thinking that they'd take Kyiv in 48 hours.
Also, near-suicidal gambles look more appealing when someone has no better options.
Also, near-suicidal gambles look more appealing when someone has no better options.
It could also be he's read the tea leaves of massive sanctions and figures the west would support a softer, friendlier Russian leader, whoever that is. Still probably suicidal doing that kind of thing on speculation.
The problem is that he's the opposite of a softer friendlier Russian leader. He's a billionaire oligarch with a private army. Russia being taken over by Prigozhin would be a disaster even worse than ISIS rising from the destruction of Iraq.
Yeah that's my mistake. I'm not arguing he's going to appear that way by throwing a coup.
I'm suggesting that lots of people act a way, and then they change for a job. If he wanted the leader of Russia job and had to act nicer to the west to keep it, well, that's a possibility.
I'm suggesting that lots of people act a way, and then they change for a job. If he wanted the leader of Russia job and had to act nicer to the west to keep it, well, that's a possibility.
> figures the west would support a softer, friendlier Russian leader, whoever that is.
regardless of if that's true, Prigozhin is not that "softer, friendlier" guy.
It's likely more internally focussed and not about us - don't make the mistake of thinking of the West as the main character here. More likely, it's about who would _Russia_ support, and reaching the opposite conclusion about what kind of leader they want.
regardless of if that's true, Prigozhin is not that "softer, friendlier" guy.
It's likely more internally focussed and not about us - don't make the mistake of thinking of the West as the main character here. More likely, it's about who would _Russia_ support, and reaching the opposite conclusion about what kind of leader they want.
Most rich people in Russia probably want the pre-2014 political situation back. Where they could make a lot of money, by exploitation of Russia and it's people, trade with the west without sanctions and spend their money there.
The higher bidder may not be too hard to find.
The higher bidder may not be too hard to find.
There is no turning back the wheel of time. They understand it.
None of these people made their money on their own account, it was always at the very least with Putin's blessing, and kickbacks, but much of it entirely on putins's account - ie many of these russian billionaire oligarchs are essentially putin's senior managers.
I think he's just seeking power.
"Also, being a mercenary, there's also the possibility he's been bought by a higher bidder"
The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me. It's such a logical explanation as to what has been going on between prigogine and the RU regime in the previous weeks...
Imagine the scene : a conglomerate of ukranian mobsters, russian oligarchs, and CIA agents, around the table with Prigogine in a secret location in Dombass, nearby the front line, talking about the tag to put on Putin's head.
I want Quentin Tarantino to shoot that scene !!
The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me. It's such a logical explanation as to what has been going on between prigogine and the RU regime in the previous weeks...
Imagine the scene : a conglomerate of ukranian mobsters, russian oligarchs, and CIA agents, around the table with Prigogine in a secret location in Dombass, nearby the front line, talking about the tag to put on Putin's head.
I want Quentin Tarantino to shoot that scene !!
Because it takes more than money and the word of the top man to successfully turn around and attack your own homeland.
Yes, they're mercenaries, but they're largely Russian mercenaries, subject to much of the same propaganda. Prigozhin's people don't just blindly follow. Granted, Russia did a lot of the convincing for them it seems with lack of support and alleged friendly fire incidents, but still. The reason this wasn't really an option on the proverbial table is because things had to get bad enough first for Russia/it's mercs to even acknowledge that table existed. Afterall, keep in mind who these people are, and how many countless and considerable, merited justification the western powers sitting at that table have to drag their ass to court and/or a firing line.
Keep in mind, dropping fat stacks on said table doesn't mean much to a Russian in Russia in the current climate if those stacks are American dollars (and the recipient wishes to remain within the Russian sphere of influence, and promises of payment upon completion are less compelling than cash that can be spent upfront to pay for a coup for example). And it might be hard for foreign powers to come up with enough rubles that would both be worth it and wouldn't throw up a lot of red flags before hand. Now, if anyone can do it, it's the alleged shadowy figures we're alluding to here, but the ultimate point is that such a thing is not something that happens quick, or easy, or when things are going "good" for the people you're trying to turn traitor.
The reality is this hasn't happened because it's a whole lot more complicated than simply showing up with enough cash in your pocket, because even that alone is a huge undertaking all thing considered.
For the record I don't necessarily think this is the primary impetus for the coup, but I'd be shocked if there weren't very serious powers making serious efforts to achieve something like this, and as a result, likely had non-trivial influence here. I highly doubt it's as simple as Wagner just getting bought out though. If anything I'd say this as much opportunism and initiative by Prigozhin himself as it as any foreign powers work.
EDIT: Think I had a stroke typing this originally, cleaned up all the typos, sorry.
Yes, they're mercenaries, but they're largely Russian mercenaries, subject to much of the same propaganda. Prigozhin's people don't just blindly follow. Granted, Russia did a lot of the convincing for them it seems with lack of support and alleged friendly fire incidents, but still. The reason this wasn't really an option on the proverbial table is because things had to get bad enough first for Russia/it's mercs to even acknowledge that table existed. Afterall, keep in mind who these people are, and how many countless and considerable, merited justification the western powers sitting at that table have to drag their ass to court and/or a firing line.
Keep in mind, dropping fat stacks on said table doesn't mean much to a Russian in Russia in the current climate if those stacks are American dollars (and the recipient wishes to remain within the Russian sphere of influence, and promises of payment upon completion are less compelling than cash that can be spent upfront to pay for a coup for example). And it might be hard for foreign powers to come up with enough rubles that would both be worth it and wouldn't throw up a lot of red flags before hand. Now, if anyone can do it, it's the alleged shadowy figures we're alluding to here, but the ultimate point is that such a thing is not something that happens quick, or easy, or when things are going "good" for the people you're trying to turn traitor.
The reality is this hasn't happened because it's a whole lot more complicated than simply showing up with enough cash in your pocket, because even that alone is a huge undertaking all thing considered.
For the record I don't necessarily think this is the primary impetus for the coup, but I'd be shocked if there weren't very serious powers making serious efforts to achieve something like this, and as a result, likely had non-trivial influence here. I highly doubt it's as simple as Wagner just getting bought out though. If anything I'd say this as much opportunism and initiative by Prigozhin himself as it as any foreign powers work.
EDIT: Think I had a stroke typing this originally, cleaned up all the typos, sorry.
> For the record I don't necessarily think this is the primary impetus for the coup, but I'd be shocked if there weren't very serious powers making serious efforts to achieve something like this, and as a result, likely had non-trivial influence here. I highly doubt it's as simple as Wagner just getting bought out though. If anything I'd say this as much opportunism and initiative by Prigozhin himself as it as any foreign powers work.
I’ve been wondering what China has been doing. It seems very plausible to imagine them making some overtures along the lines of “keep Russia stable and exporting resources to us and we’ll recognize your government and make you phenomenally rich”. He’s a nationalist but also keenly aware of how expensive a military force is so he must have some idea of a path to legitimacy.
I’ve been wondering what China has been doing. It seems very plausible to imagine them making some overtures along the lines of “keep Russia stable and exporting resources to us and we’ll recognize your government and make you phenomenally rich”. He’s a nationalist but also keenly aware of how expensive a military force is so he must have some idea of a path to legitimacy.
Watch for a 5 Billion Dollars newt line item, under "external projects", in the Pentagon next year budget...
> The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me.
same here. this options opens up an entire world of possibilities.
same here. this options opens up an entire world of possibilities.
Most likely his ass was literally on fire, and doing or not doing this had the same risk
He’s not a mercenary. His old nickname was „Putin’s cook”, because he ran the restaurant over 20 years ago that Putin ate at once and found liking to him.
Since then this guy was one of Putins favorite oligarchs. The state gave him money which he used to start more companies, eventually developing state within state. One of his conpanies was major catering provider for Russian government, administration, schools and the army. He runs dozens of companies, including media companies running paper and internet press. He is also known to be behind part of russian propaganda and public opinion influence operation in western internet. It was noted that some hyper-active polish-speaking twitter accounts that were famously anti-ukraine have gone silent in last two days - the suspection is that those belonged to his troll farms that Kremlin has seized.
Wagner group was his latest enterprise and fighting wars around the world made him even richer, but he is not a mercenary. He is an oligarch who got too powerful and Kremlin is now trying to strike him down. He’s a brigand turned convenience store clerk who by some means took control on whole network of those stores which led him open his own restaurant and then Putin elevated into oligarch because he though that his debt to him will make him forever loyal.
Since then this guy was one of Putins favorite oligarchs. The state gave him money which he used to start more companies, eventually developing state within state. One of his conpanies was major catering provider for Russian government, administration, schools and the army. He runs dozens of companies, including media companies running paper and internet press. He is also known to be behind part of russian propaganda and public opinion influence operation in western internet. It was noted that some hyper-active polish-speaking twitter accounts that were famously anti-ukraine have gone silent in last two days - the suspection is that those belonged to his troll farms that Kremlin has seized.
Wagner group was his latest enterprise and fighting wars around the world made him even richer, but he is not a mercenary. He is an oligarch who got too powerful and Kremlin is now trying to strike him down. He’s a brigand turned convenience store clerk who by some means took control on whole network of those stores which led him open his own restaurant and then Putin elevated into oligarch because he though that his debt to him will make him forever loyal.
Russia never emerged from feudalism. It played at communism and it is now playing as a federation, but it remains essentially a feudalist political environment. I mean, sending Chechens to Rostov to put down a mutiny -- any old sultan would relate.
Russia's prestige has been fatally damaged. This is not a world leading nation, Global South has likely noted. But it is worrying that this turn of events increases the likelihood of runway escalations on various fronts.
Russia's prestige has been fatally damaged. This is not a world leading nation, Global South has likely noted. But it is worrying that this turn of events increases the likelihood of runway escalations on various fronts.
Could also be the fact that he has been pushing against the regime for months and he realised (or maybe even got intel) that kremlin will try to get rid of him. And if the choice is between a guaranteed fall from a window or a hail marry coup with a 10% chance of some kind of success it doesnt look as crazy.
OK this explains his motives. But what about his army? These are thousands of soldiers who know exactly the risk they take - so they probably need a high level of confidence to pull that off.
More likely he saw the writing on the wall (or an open window!), given PMCs like Wagner have a deadline of signing contracts to become more integrated in the Russian army command on 1st July, and with most of Wagner having just pulled out of Bakhmut, this was a small window of opportunity with most Russian forces otherwise engaged in Ukraine.
He was possibly thinking he was also being set up as a fall guy...
He was possibly thinking he was also being set up as a fall guy...
It can be both. He might have sensed that he was losing Putin favor and decided to defect.
The MoD asked Wagner to turn over their forces, and Prigozhin has been very critical. Technically his mercenery corp is illegal in Russia.
I think its the opposite: Prigozhin fears for his life. He is dead if he ”surrenders," but he has a slim chance to live if he defies the Russian military.
My impression from Russian journalists is that this is a theme in Russia.
I think its the opposite: Prigozhin fears for his life. He is dead if he ”surrenders," but he has a slim chance to live if he defies the Russian military.
My impression from Russian journalists is that this is a theme in Russia.
I've heard that theory too and it makes sense. Prigozhin is a dead man and he knows it, a coup attempt at least has a > 0 percent chance of his survival. Signing the contract means he falls out of a window in 24 months tops.
Ongoing discussion:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452290
It’s been flagged. Don’t ask me why.
In general, many Russians are pro-Putin, and this includes HN-ers. I noticed they don't like it when negative news about Russia are discussed. And the usual mechanism for canceling a discussion on HN is to flag it.
Now this one has too
Not much ongoing there anymore.
And this got flagged too: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36457511
Maybe Prigozhin really has been playing 5D chess. Build up your profile fighting for Bakhmut. Use lack of progress to pick a fight with Russian brass. Start direct conflict with Russian army in the name of winning in Ukraine. When the time is right, march on the Kremlin.
you forgot his decision at the age of six to assist his mother cooking so he'd be good enough at it to eventually become the head chef of then russia's leader!
As I understand, for some significant parts of WWII, Hitler was his own worst enemy and deposing him would have been harmful to the Allies. I wonder if we're in a similar state now where Wagner are basically saying the Russian command is more damaging to their efforts than the enemy. It could also be the opposite, where Wagner is lead by an even more psychotic warlord. I have no way of knowing and no sources I'd particularly on the matter.
I have the feeling that Putin is actually relatively moderate compared to other warlords is surrounded by, including Prigozhin.
I can't tell if it's more depressing if you're wrong or right.
The FSB really dropped the ball on this one. Very unprofessional on their part.
Heads will roll on Lubyanka street… Unless they hurry up and seize the power.
Heads will roll on Lubyanka square…
Unless they seize power first.