China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
17 comments
If they do collect actual numbers but report much lower numbers it should not be too difficult to give realistic ones. Right now the Chinese state media is making a huge effort to paint the virus as a 'foreign' issue, claiming that there are now no new local infections but rather just infections brought in from abroad. This is rather obviously absurd, but it's also obviously an effort to shift blame while claiming a high ground. The Chinese leadership can pretend competence and blame others for any fault - pretending that it wasn't them that started the whole mess to begin with.
India (of all countries) had a severe virus outbreak a few years back - immediately local doctors reported it, containment measures were in place and the case numbers stayed somewhere around two hundred. China had the same, but arrested whistleblowers, officially denied everything and only admitted things when the scale and spread was so bad that it couldn't anymore be denied. Still we don't know the true scale and numbers and never will.
India (of all countries) had a severe virus outbreak a few years back - immediately local doctors reported it, containment measures were in place and the case numbers stayed somewhere around two hundred. China had the same, but arrested whistleblowers, officially denied everything and only admitted things when the scale and spread was so bad that it couldn't anymore be denied. Still we don't know the true scale and numbers and never will.
How is it "obviously absurd"? We've been the ones lamenting that China's been going full dystopia "welding people inside apartments" all the way back in January.
Also for those who read beyond the title:
"the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents."
And here I am still waiting for Bloomberg to write the other half of their supermicro chip story.
Also for those who read beyond the title:
"the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents."
And here I am still waiting for Bloomberg to write the other half of their supermicro chip story.
"Let him who is without sin cast the first stone."
It's a little too convenient that the US blew so many weeks of lead time in getting mass testing running. We don't need to suppress information about our virus outbreak when we simply don't have data about it. We literally would've had a better response if the CDC didn't exist at all and individual states weren't impeded from running their own tests. The Seattle Flu Study was explicitly forbidden from testing for coronavirus, and their refusal to obey that order on ethical grounds was probably the reason that they're not suffering New York's fate right now.
Not to absolve China here, but it's a classic sin of nations to hide epidemics (see "Spanish Flu") and they probably aren't even the most egregious sinners today.
It's a little too convenient that the US blew so many weeks of lead time in getting mass testing running. We don't need to suppress information about our virus outbreak when we simply don't have data about it. We literally would've had a better response if the CDC didn't exist at all and individual states weren't impeded from running their own tests. The Seattle Flu Study was explicitly forbidden from testing for coronavirus, and their refusal to obey that order on ethical grounds was probably the reason that they're not suffering New York's fate right now.
Not to absolve China here, but it's a classic sin of nations to hide epidemics (see "Spanish Flu") and they probably aren't even the most egregious sinners today.
> We literally would've had a better response if the CDC didn't exist at all and individual states weren't impeded from running their own tests.
That's a very strong assertion that needs proof. Testing is important, but so are many other things like access to hospital beds, ventilators, face masks, etc.
Plus you are assuming that states would have been uniformly aggressive in testing and countermeasures, which is manifestly not the case. (See Louisiana, Florida, and NYC for examples.)
That's a very strong assertion that needs proof. Testing is important, but so are many other things like access to hospital beds, ventilators, face masks, etc.
Plus you are assuming that states would have been uniformly aggressive in testing and countermeasures, which is manifestly not the case. (See Louisiana, Florida, and NYC for examples.)
> That's a very strong assertion that needs proof.
The proof is self-evident. There are a plethora of commercial labs that were not allowed to do testing, and the CDC's one blessed test was a failure. Had they not been the sole blessed entity allowed to do testing, states could've run things better on their own.
Better testing could've contained it long enough to allow us to prepare for the mitigation phase we're thrown into, unprepared again.
As for the states, not every state would've done well, but it's practically impossible for it to be handled worse than the way it was. The US response has been a disaster from the top down.
The proof is self-evident. There are a plethora of commercial labs that were not allowed to do testing, and the CDC's one blessed test was a failure. Had they not been the sole blessed entity allowed to do testing, states could've run things better on their own.
Better testing could've contained it long enough to allow us to prepare for the mitigation phase we're thrown into, unprepared again.
As for the states, not every state would've done well, but it's practically impossible for it to be handled worse than the way it was. The US response has been a disaster from the top down.
This nonsense has been debunked weeks ago.
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-misplaced-blame-on-...
There was no rule anyone has found that restricted other labs from testing.
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-misplaced-blame-on-...
There was no rule anyone has found that restricted other labs from testing.
I'm not excusing the poor execution on the part of the US government--it's been awful. But it seems to me that the core problem has been leadership not taking the advice of scientists rather than whether the CDC exists or not.
If you are going to run 'what if' scenarios it's worth asking what if somebody like Mario Cuomo had been in the White House in early January? (Or any of several other US governors for that matter.)
If you are going to run 'what if' scenarios it's worth asking what if somebody like Mario Cuomo had been in the White House in early January? (Or any of several other US governors for that matter.)
> If you are going to run 'what if' scenarios it's worth asking what if somebody like Mario Cuomo had been in the White House in early January? (Or any of several other US governors for that matter.)
I have been thinking all along that even someone who has been dead for five years would be a suitable replacement for current leadership.
Seriously though, yes, Andrew Cuomo is a walking demonstration of what competent leadership looks like. I wish we had that at the federal level.
I have been thinking all along that even someone who has been dead for five years would be a suitable replacement for current leadership.
Seriously though, yes, Andrew Cuomo is a walking demonstration of what competent leadership looks like. I wish we had that at the federal level.
on 17th of January:
> The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission’s daily update declares, “A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 665 medical observations have been lifted, and 98 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.”
So, the CCP (China Commmunist Party) is still lying about it on the 17th of January. This is weeks after Chinese doctors in the hospital are well aware of what's going on, and had tried to get word out. However, this is what happened to them:
> The Wuhan Public Security Bureau issued summons to Dr. Li Wenliang, accusing him of “spreading rumors.” Two days later, at a police station, Dr. Li signed a statement acknowledging his “misdemeanor” and promising not to commit further “unlawful acts.” Seven other people are arrested on similar charges and their fate is unknown.
This head fake by the CCP, and the collaboration of the WHO, threw off the CDC and many others.
Yes, the CDC screwed up and should have been more skeptical of the CCP and should have had a better game plan, but that is in a whole different category than the actions of the CCP.
> The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission’s daily update declares, “A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 665 medical observations have been lifted, and 98 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.”
So, the CCP (China Commmunist Party) is still lying about it on the 17th of January. This is weeks after Chinese doctors in the hospital are well aware of what's going on, and had tried to get word out. However, this is what happened to them:
> The Wuhan Public Security Bureau issued summons to Dr. Li Wenliang, accusing him of “spreading rumors.” Two days later, at a police station, Dr. Li signed a statement acknowledging his “misdemeanor” and promising not to commit further “unlawful acts.” Seven other people are arrested on similar charges and their fate is unknown.
This head fake by the CCP, and the collaboration of the WHO, threw off the CDC and many others.
Yes, the CDC screwed up and should have been more skeptical of the CCP and should have had a better game plan, but that is in a whole different category than the actions of the CCP.
As a modeler, in a field unrelated to pandemics and epidemiology, my first reaction was that the estimates of CRF, IFR and R0 are going to be wrong. Which in turn is going to produce wrong estimates from all the models.
First, they did not shutdown the wet markets which they should have right after SARs, then they concealed the outbreak for weeks or months and now they are lying about the numbers.
How can the Chinese government keep doing this and think they are going to keep getting away with it? They are willing to invest 100s of billions in One Belt One Road to project power but this takes down their credibility by many notches for vast swathes of people around the globe.
First, they did not shutdown the wet markets which they should have right after SARs, then they concealed the outbreak for weeks or months and now they are lying about the numbers.
How can the Chinese government keep doing this and think they are going to keep getting away with it? They are willing to invest 100s of billions in One Belt One Road to project power but this takes down their credibility by many notches for vast swathes of people around the globe.
What did the CIA or NSA been doing in the mean time with all that budget ... aren't they supposed to be informed of all things affecting national security around the globe ???.
Did they really expect that an adversarial superpower would admit to the scale of their problem ... the US should have been way better prepared.
Did they really expect that an adversarial superpower would admit to the scale of their problem ... the US should have been way better prepared.
I wondered about this. I've started to think they probably see a lot of threats, tell people, and it's more or less dismissed if it's not immediately clear why it's a threat.
I am sure they did provide detailed analysis, the issue is we have a president that is not intellectually curious or concerned with information -- instead he believes in his "gut feelings" over all else (and has said as much when talking about how he views intelligence services).
Also the political cronies with no clue appointed after the good people with all the experience left because they disagreed.
Clearly the west dropped the ball in important ways, but guidance from the WHO was certainly bad and seemingly deferential to China and its reputation. But if there’s evidence the data and reporting is “concealed,” on top of the clear silencing of doctors (Ai Fen and others), this is egregious.
First of all, nobody knew what it was, what it did and what it could do when it first hit. No one said, "oh, this is the coronavirus COVID-19, and this is the test for it." All this had to be discovered as it got worse.
I want to know why this pandemic blew up right after the mysterious vape flu in August last year that has the exact same symptoms as COVID-19 and why this flared up in Wuhan after soldiers from all over the world, about 200 from the US, were in Wuhan for the World Military Games.
Wet markets and exotic meats are all over China. Why did it just start in Wuhan?
I want to know why this pandemic blew up right after the mysterious vape flu in August last year that has the exact same symptoms as COVID-19 and why this flared up in Wuhan after soldiers from all over the world, about 200 from the US, were in Wuhan for the World Military Games.
Wet markets and exotic meats are all over China. Why did it just start in Wuhan?
It is painfully obvious that china concealed the beginnings of the outbreak, no matter your personal political beliefs, or nationality.
To assert anything else, particularly under the guise of (so and so also did this), highlights your comment as insincere. Lets keep the politics out of HN.
To assert anything else, particularly under the guise of (so and so also did this), highlights your comment as insincere. Lets keep the politics out of HN.
It's also true that many if not most countries have been reluctant to face up to the scale of the pandemic. It remains to be seen whether the Chinese government's obfuscation will turn out to be more or less damaging to the overall response than the inaction of other governments. We're a long way from the end of this episode.
TL;DR no matter what you think, I'm right. If you think anything else, you're a horrible person. First and final word, let's stop talking about it. This is not a cult /s
> The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents.
These days, I'm going to be more surprised if journalism didn't start with this since the overton window moved so much that this is the norm now.
> The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents.
These days, I'm going to be more surprised if journalism didn't start with this since the overton window moved so much that this is the norm now.
Typical techniques used by "professional" "journalist" to cover up and diverge the real issue, which is the incompetency of the US government.
You see when you fail at something, isn't it easy to blame someone else, rather than looking at yourself?
And REMEMBER these journalists are PAID to write.
And YOU, the reader, are only able to comprehend what you are prepared to hear.
You see when you fail at something, isn't it easy to blame someone else, rather than looking at yourself?
And REMEMBER these journalists are PAID to write.
And YOU, the reader, are only able to comprehend what you are prepared to hear.
[deleted]
Worth pointing out that China's on the ground response was light years ahead of ours in the US. Faster, more coordinated, more robust, calmer..
[deleted]
Assuming this is correct, what is the estimated death toll in China due to COVID-19, preferably from a reliable source ?
I'm curious what actual infection and death rates are in China- there seems to be no mentioning in the article. Given what is happening in Italy and Spain, its probably horrible. :(
How come Korea had it under control so quickly, "given" that China "obviouly" "conceled" the information?
Blame blame blame...more blame
Blame blame blame...more blame
US mounting hybrid warfare
[deleted]
does anyone take US intelligence seriously any more? seems we have a fairly reliable years-long evidence trail that says it might not be worth it any more.
either they're legitimately incompetent (tons of sabre-rattling about the China "threat" yet no intel operations; likely hasn't been rebuilt after China publicly executed tons of spies [quite an effective deterrent it seems]) and they're saying as much here, or they're just deflecting outrage on an external entity doing typical IC stuff, which is complete noise.
either they're legitimately incompetent (tons of sabre-rattling about the China "threat" yet no intel operations; likely hasn't been rebuilt after China publicly executed tons of spies [quite an effective deterrent it seems]) and they're saying as much here, or they're just deflecting outrage on an external entity doing typical IC stuff, which is complete noise.
This could thus partly be a case of accusing the other side of lying because you look so bad that blame needs to be spread around even if they did things differently to mitigate their situation better (maybe).
Also, China published the vast majority of major case growth/death figures before they (or anyone else really) knew just how bad things would get in Italy, Spain and other countries, yet their mortality rates more or less match a certain global average (they're in fact a bit worse than average) so why would they have lied in such a specific but also partially statistically realistic way? Why not publish less cases and lower death figures if they were going to lie their asses off anyhow?
I don't think they're telling the truth, especially about total known cases and total deaths, but maybe they didn't conceal quite as badly as claimed, and harsher measures partly explain the differences in numbers between the U.S and China.
Most of all though, it's important to know if whatever concealment they did also distorted: 1. claimed mortality RATE, and 2. if the spread of the virus has been more or less contained finally, as they claim it has. These two are the most important things, more important than actual numbers being off by some margin or another.