Common Enemies(collaborativefund.com)
collaborativefund.com
Common Enemies
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/common-enemies/
12 comments
>wind back the easy availability of travel
What do you mean by that? I'm assuming it's not just a roundabout way of saying "more expensive", and thus more exclusive, like in the (bad) old days.
What do you mean by that? I'm assuming it's not just a roundabout way of saying "more expensive", and thus more exclusive, like in the (bad) old days.
I do mean the bad old days. Unless COVID turns out to be radically overblown I'm hopeful we don't have the stomach to do this again. Our fast and well connected airline system was a massive contributing factor to this spiraling out of control.
If I had the choice; permanent 2 week quarantine for all air travelers on arrival. That'd kill a lot of travel-related industries.
If I had the choice; permanent 2 week quarantine for all air travelers on arrival. That'd kill a lot of travel-related industries.
> Korea doesn't seem to need any special help from Italy, for example.
But Italy gladly took help from China.
But Italy gladly took help from China.
And Europe send help to Asia a few months ago too. Korea happens to be an exception imho.
We had a story of a grasshopper and an ant when I was a kid. My kid, in a different language, had a story of a frog and a mole. Does a fable such as this not exist in the USA?
We had a story of a grasshopper and an ant when I was a kid. My kid, in a different language, had a story of a frog and a mole. Does a fable such as this not exist in the USA?
I don't know, I am not from USA and dont even care about that fable enough to learn what fable is for.
My comment was response to:
> This is an instance where on the one hand, a globally coordinated response doesn't do all that much. Korea doesn't seem to need any special help from Italy, for example.
Not an entry to a greatness or who gives to who or size measuring contest.
Korea don't need help from Italy, but Italy need help frim China. That is state of facts.
My comment was response to:
> This is an instance where on the one hand, a globally coordinated response doesn't do all that much. Korea doesn't seem to need any special help from Italy, for example.
Not an entry to a greatness or who gives to who or size measuring contest.
Korea don't need help from Italy, but Italy need help frim China. That is state of facts.
I don't buy it. A crisis that causes the world's countries to isolate themselves from each other does not stimulate cooperation. In fact I'd argue the opposite - it highlights the downsides of a cooperative world with open borders and open markets. I'm not making a value judgement here, just that this will probably result in the opposite of what the article implies.
Physical separation doesn't suggest a lack of mutual cooperation. I'm interacting with my friends as much as if not more than ever despite never seeing them in person.
I would say that this pandemic would argue more for better digital interconnectedness.
Global access to the internet is still not great. We need better networks!
Global access to the internet is still not great. We need better networks!
I just had a random thought how ironic it would be if we all displaced physical connections with digital ones, only to be thwarted by a global, digital supervirus in lieu of a physical one.
Yes that could happen too. But physical and digital connections need not be mutually exclusive.
I only argue about digital connectedness because it still needs improvement.
Meeting people in person...not much can be improved there. You just need to turn up.
I only argue about digital connectedness because it still needs improvement.
Meeting people in person...not much can be improved there. You just need to turn up.
It's not just the countries. Even individuals are isolating more than ever. That's probably the best defense we have against the proliferation of the virus. If done in tandem by everyone, it might be the best ever co-ordinated exercise ever carried out by humankind.
Much less confident in our leaders in Washington.
FDR seems almost biblical in comparison.
This is a beautiful analysis, no less so because it overlooks that, in World War II, the enemy was tangible and knowable in ways that a virus is not.
An encouraging essay, but things were not quite as rosy as described.
For examples in the article blood donations were required to be segregated by "race" (to their credit, the Navy just aggregated it and labeled outgoing bottles as needed). Crime rose in blackout Britain as the chance of being caught for theft and robbery fell dramatically.
I say this not to pooh-pooh the article. In fact on international cooperation we have a nice A/B test running right now: Europe sent emergency supplies to China and is now getting some in return. Countries that jumped at international standards reaped the benefits (Senegal has had and continues to have better testing capability and medical response than the USA). Those that chose to "go it alone" or practice censorship have done worse than those who have been more holistic.
It remains to be seen if any useful lessons are learnt from this experiment.
For examples in the article blood donations were required to be segregated by "race" (to their credit, the Navy just aggregated it and labeled outgoing bottles as needed). Crime rose in blackout Britain as the chance of being caught for theft and robbery fell dramatically.
I say this not to pooh-pooh the article. In fact on international cooperation we have a nice A/B test running right now: Europe sent emergency supplies to China and is now getting some in return. Countries that jumped at international standards reaped the benefits (Senegal has had and continues to have better testing capability and medical response than the USA). Those that chose to "go it alone" or practice censorship have done worse than those who have been more holistic.
It remains to be seen if any useful lessons are learnt from this experiment.
I do not expect this outcome under current leadership.
Did he invent that Voltaire quote? I can't find a source for it anywhere.
The problem with this virus is not that there is no vaccine, but that it has asymptomatic carriers.
Hence since there is no way to prove if one is infected, the government assumes that everyone is infected, thus halting economic activity.
The solution will probably be:
1) Massive testing - I could see "at home" test kit. 2) Some sort of certificate of the day of the test and the results. 3) Some sort of division between clean areas (where only non-infected people reside). For example, a flight must certify that all the passengers are clean.
The other option is to have the virus return every X month until there is a vaccine, or until 90-80% of the population is infected.
Hence since there is no way to prove if one is infected, the government assumes that everyone is infected, thus halting economic activity.
The solution will probably be:
1) Massive testing - I could see "at home" test kit. 2) Some sort of certificate of the day of the test and the results. 3) Some sort of division between clean areas (where only non-infected people reside). For example, a flight must certify that all the passengers are clean.
The other option is to have the virus return every X month until there is a vaccine, or until 90-80% of the population is infected.
> Pandemics kill people and recessions ruin people. Saying they have silver linings is a step too far. But I wonder if the best map we have that tells us what to expect next is the kind of extreme cooperation, solidarity, and empathy we last saw in the 1940s. And I wonder if we’ll look back at COVID-19 as one of the worst things to happen to us, yet triggering something positive that couldn’t be achieved any other way.
I really -- really -- hope the author is right. His arguments are persuasive and his logic is sound, but I'm less certain than he is of such a positive outcome.
Another historical precedent to keep in mind is the Little Ice Age in Europe, which brought about both sustained economic depression (due to poor crop growth and poor livestock survival) and widespread disease (due to increased activity of pathogens and disease vectors), including the Black Death. During this horrendous period, economic depression and widespread disease fueled each other, generating a lethal feedback loop. Quoting from Wikipedia: "Communities often lashed out via violent crimes, including robbery and murder; sexual offense accusations increased as well, such as adultery, bestiality, and rape. Europeans sought explanations for the famine, disease, and social unrest that they were experiencing, leading to the act of placing blame upon the innocent" (think Jews, women accused of witchcraft, people accused of blasphemy, and so on). "Evidence from several studies indicate that increases in violent actions against marginalized groups that were held responsible for the Little Ice Age overlap with years of particularly cold, dry weather."[a]
Back to the present: If most societies on earth blame an impersonal pathogen for this disastrous shock, and if governments everywhere manage to keep populations in reasonably good living conditions throughout the crisis, we may indeed see more unity against a common enemy. But if most societies resort to scapegoating, Heaven help us.
This isn't idle talk: As I write this, Trump is actively blaming "the Chinese" and "foreigners" for the virus,[b] while some Chinese officials blame "the Americans."[c] Russian media, by instinct or calculation, is blaming "America" too.[d] Others (e.g., Turkey's Erdogan, Iran's leaders) blame "a Zionist plot"[e] or other crazy conspiracies.[f]
The shock of COVID-19 could give demagogues everywhere fuel for re-lighting a fire of old prejudices and hatreds that had remained subdued for a generation or longer.[g]
As I wrote above, I really HOPE the author is right. I hope "the better angels of our nature" prevail.
--
[a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Cultural_respon...
[b] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-outbreak-trump-b...
[c] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/02/china-blames-united-sta...
[d] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/14/russia-blame-america-co...
[e] https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Antisemitism/Coronavirus-is-a...
[f] https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-leader-r...
[g] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue#Methods
I really -- really -- hope the author is right. His arguments are persuasive and his logic is sound, but I'm less certain than he is of such a positive outcome.
Another historical precedent to keep in mind is the Little Ice Age in Europe, which brought about both sustained economic depression (due to poor crop growth and poor livestock survival) and widespread disease (due to increased activity of pathogens and disease vectors), including the Black Death. During this horrendous period, economic depression and widespread disease fueled each other, generating a lethal feedback loop. Quoting from Wikipedia: "Communities often lashed out via violent crimes, including robbery and murder; sexual offense accusations increased as well, such as adultery, bestiality, and rape. Europeans sought explanations for the famine, disease, and social unrest that they were experiencing, leading to the act of placing blame upon the innocent" (think Jews, women accused of witchcraft, people accused of blasphemy, and so on). "Evidence from several studies indicate that increases in violent actions against marginalized groups that were held responsible for the Little Ice Age overlap with years of particularly cold, dry weather."[a]
Back to the present: If most societies on earth blame an impersonal pathogen for this disastrous shock, and if governments everywhere manage to keep populations in reasonably good living conditions throughout the crisis, we may indeed see more unity against a common enemy. But if most societies resort to scapegoating, Heaven help us.
This isn't idle talk: As I write this, Trump is actively blaming "the Chinese" and "foreigners" for the virus,[b] while some Chinese officials blame "the Americans."[c] Russian media, by instinct or calculation, is blaming "America" too.[d] Others (e.g., Turkey's Erdogan, Iran's leaders) blame "a Zionist plot"[e] or other crazy conspiracies.[f]
The shock of COVID-19 could give demagogues everywhere fuel for re-lighting a fire of old prejudices and hatreds that had remained subdued for a generation or longer.[g]
As I wrote above, I really HOPE the author is right. I hope "the better angels of our nature" prevail.
--
[a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Cultural_respon...
[b] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-outbreak-trump-b...
[c] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/02/china-blames-united-sta...
[d] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/14/russia-blame-america-co...
[e] https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Antisemitism/Coronavirus-is-a...
[f] https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-leader-r...
[g] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue#Methods
In the meantime, countries are closing their borders and isolating more than even the most regressive and backwards-looking people could have dreamed of a year ago. Almost no country has a response plan that has anything to do with any other country at all. As an American abroad, it honestly feels like I'm trapped between waiting on uncertain visa extensions and being forced headfirst into the pandemic by returning home.
> anything to do with any other country at all
Virus spread is inherently a local problem. Are you imaging Xi should order American restaurants closed? The best China can do is watch out for themselves, warn others, and send masks once supply allows.
Closed borders is more about ensuring people do not flee with the virus in-tow.
Virus spread is inherently a local problem. Are you imaging Xi should order American restaurants closed? The best China can do is watch out for themselves, warn others, and send masks once supply allows.
Closed borders is more about ensuring people do not flee with the virus in-tow.
Wow, we have come so far from the Ebola response that it has literally become inconceivable there would be more active international cooperation. This doesn't bode well.
On the other hand, global coordination by medical researchers is both critical and, I expect, frantic. The speed we've progressed from identification through sequencing and then on to Phase 3 antivirals is nothing short of jaw-dropping; this is the most amazing response to a disease we've seen in however many thousand years f recorded history we have.
We may also have to wind back the easy availability of travel after this too. This is probably going to become a 1 in 30 years style event if the travel networks don't change. Good thing to coordinate on, but an issue for the future.