Not just luck and talent: "positioning"(michaelrwolfe.posterous.com)
michaelrwolfe.posterous.com
Not just luck and talent: "positioning"
http://michaelrwolfe.posterous.com/not-luck-not-talent-but-positioning
4 comments
Totally agree, really good article.
You know, when you look at history and say "this person/side was lucky to win", I'm not so sure that's the case. With adequate preparation and enough attention to detail and caution, you're very likely to have a mild/medium success even if you don't completely break out.
For instance -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Date_Masamune
Masamune fought on the winning side in the final part of the Japanese Sengoku Warrring States Era. Sekigahara turned out to be the decisive battle, and after that, the Western Forces were never a serious threat to the Eastern Forces.
Tokugawa, the leader of the Eastern Forces, then had a very stable, consistent government that ruled for 250 years of relative peace.
However, if Sekigahara goes differently, or Tokugawa Ieyasu misgoverns or dies younger, then perhaps Date Masamune becomes the final unifier of Japan. He put himself into a position where, if the opportunity arose, he could have done it.
The opportunity didn't arise, and instead he wound up founding Sendai, one of the most beautiful cities in Japan, developing the local land a lot, and opening up diplomatic missions with Europe. He put himself in a position to be massively successful if the opportunity came for it. It didn't, but he still wound up quite successful and is well-respected to this day, and his family governed a pleasant, stable area for a long time in peace and prosperity.
Positioning, indeed.
You know, when you look at history and say "this person/side was lucky to win", I'm not so sure that's the case. With adequate preparation and enough attention to detail and caution, you're very likely to have a mild/medium success even if you don't completely break out.
For instance -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Date_Masamune
Masamune fought on the winning side in the final part of the Japanese Sengoku Warrring States Era. Sekigahara turned out to be the decisive battle, and after that, the Western Forces were never a serious threat to the Eastern Forces.
Tokugawa, the leader of the Eastern Forces, then had a very stable, consistent government that ruled for 250 years of relative peace.
However, if Sekigahara goes differently, or Tokugawa Ieyasu misgoverns or dies younger, then perhaps Date Masamune becomes the final unifier of Japan. He put himself into a position where, if the opportunity arose, he could have done it.
The opportunity didn't arise, and instead he wound up founding Sendai, one of the most beautiful cities in Japan, developing the local land a lot, and opening up diplomatic missions with Europe. He put himself in a position to be massively successful if the opportunity came for it. It didn't, but he still wound up quite successful and is well-respected to this day, and his family governed a pleasant, stable area for a long time in peace and prosperity.
Positioning, indeed.
smart optimization involves pruning the decision tree such that all remaining branches lead to victory.
Is that someone elses quote, or did you come up with that yourself? Either way - I like it!
A nice article, yes, and +1 for mostly being about cyclocross. I presume the author isn't the guy bunny hopping barriers on the MTB...
Reminded me of the quote attributed to Seneca - "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."
I would add that if you happen to find yourself in some uniquely valuable position, the ability to recognize that and act on it is enormously powerful.