Billions spent on Ordinary Chemistry Was called Nanotechnology(nextbigfuture.com)
nextbigfuture.com
Billions spent on Ordinary Chemistry Was called Nanotechnology
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/09/eric-drexler-ralph-merkle-or-robert.html
7 comments
It's an interesting technique to claim that your opponent is worth rebutting but not worth linking to.
It is indeed poor form but all you have to do is to follow the first link which will show you the one in question.
It's sufficiently vile and inaccurate (the guy's a small time Smalley who even ends his essay with a quote from that liar) that I can see why he refused to directly link to it. Plus since it's mostly a hand waving attempt to deny all of what Drexler has been saying, the author is not addressing the essay so much as pointing out why Drexler's proposition has never been tested (it's never been funded).
ADDED: On the other hand, I suppose all this is only fitting, given Drexler's belief back then that rational science policy was possible and his enthusiasm for mechanisms that would enable this. In the '70s and '80s there were clearly aspects of human nature he just couldn't wrap his head around.
It's sufficiently vile and inaccurate (the guy's a small time Smalley who even ends his essay with a quote from that liar) that I can see why he refused to directly link to it. Plus since it's mostly a hand waving attempt to deny all of what Drexler has been saying, the author is not addressing the essay so much as pointing out why Drexler's proposition has never been tested (it's never been funded).
ADDED: On the other hand, I suppose all this is only fitting, given Drexler's belief back then that rational science policy was possible and his enthusiasm for mechanisms that would enable this. In the '70s and '80s there were clearly aspects of human nature he just couldn't wrap his head around.
The author does not explain why govt-sponsored nanotech research elsewhere (Russia, China) turned out just as fruitless and the same kind of rebranding enterprise as in USA.
A) Have they really tried Drexler style nanotech? I don't know, but I've simply not heard of any place else trying it (although there's some interesting stuff being done in Switzerland). Certainly the detractors would triumph any such failures.
B) China does a lot more cargo cult science than real science, due at least in part to the incentive structures (look at the many recent HN items on the subject; it's become a major issue for any practicing scientist). For that matter, true innovations coming out of Japan are pretty rare due to their seniority system; e.g. until very recently every native of Japan that won a Nobel had to leave the country to do his research (which is a form or permanent self-exile, setting the barrier pretty high...).
This is not to say that all furreniers are incapable of Real Science, just that it's a lot more rare than one might think. There are reasons US research universities are rated as the best in the world, with only a few Western ones (mostly in the U.K.?) giving them competition.
B) China does a lot more cargo cult science than real science, due at least in part to the incentive structures (look at the many recent HN items on the subject; it's become a major issue for any practicing scientist). For that matter, true innovations coming out of Japan are pretty rare due to their seniority system; e.g. until very recently every native of Japan that won a Nobel had to leave the country to do his research (which is a form or permanent self-exile, setting the barrier pretty high...).
This is not to say that all furreniers are incapable of Real Science, just that it's a lot more rare than one might think. There are reasons US research universities are rated as the best in the world, with only a few Western ones (mostly in the U.K.?) giving them competition.
I don't know. Stakes are certainly high for canonical Drexler type nanotech. You'd figure a lot of the governments would've loved to have an edge there, if it was possible or within short leap from current technological base?
Government taking charge for research certainly worked for the space race. Among all the countless grants and fellowships in nanotech you'd hope it would yield at least something resembling the original vision, at this point.
I sort of can relate to your point B, and perhaps it's not even just the Asian nations.
Government taking charge for research certainly worked for the space race. Among all the countless grants and fellowships in nanotech you'd hope it would yield at least something resembling the original vision, at this point.
I sort of can relate to your point B, and perhaps it's not even just the Asian nations.
Stakes are high, but that doesn't mean the almost always conservative establishments of countries will treat it that seriously (this is particularly unlikely in Japan as noted).
The space race was a combination of re-purposing military hardware (at least for us, only the Saturn boosters didn't start their life as such, I think the same is essentially true for the Soviets) for short term term political advantage. We were claiming to be the most technologically advanced system, yet the Soviets were the first to orbit a satellite (due to internal US bureaucratic turf fighting) and the first to put a man in orbit. To convince other countries that our system was the best we had to match and exceed the Soviet program.
A good counter example is how other countries only got really serious about atomic weapons after we used two in such a public fashion. Both the general concept (E = mc^2) and the specific method (fission of heavy isotopes) had been around for quite some time; it took the prod of war to actually do it.
You'd hope some grant money would go this way, but remember that the existing chemistry etc. establishments are already entrenched in the system and good at getting grant money. In the US they had no trouble spending 'nanotech' money for their usual pursuits.
Also don't forget that this paradigm shift is a threat to the way they've learned to do things. Never underestimate how far powerful people will go when they are faced with what they view as an existential threat. Look at how willing Nobelist Smalley was to flatly lie about what Drexler was proposing and his first choice of a forum, one notorious for not allowing those attacked to respond, for an example of this.
As for point B, it's not just the Asian nations: I don't know about their current status, but it was Brazil's scientific establishment that Feynman viewed up close and personally during an extended visit that prompted him to formulate the cargo cult science concept. Looking at where Nobelists actually did their work would be one way of taking a stab at the question.
The space race was a combination of re-purposing military hardware (at least for us, only the Saturn boosters didn't start their life as such, I think the same is essentially true for the Soviets) for short term term political advantage. We were claiming to be the most technologically advanced system, yet the Soviets were the first to orbit a satellite (due to internal US bureaucratic turf fighting) and the first to put a man in orbit. To convince other countries that our system was the best we had to match and exceed the Soviet program.
A good counter example is how other countries only got really serious about atomic weapons after we used two in such a public fashion. Both the general concept (E = mc^2) and the specific method (fission of heavy isotopes) had been around for quite some time; it took the prod of war to actually do it.
You'd hope some grant money would go this way, but remember that the existing chemistry etc. establishments are already entrenched in the system and good at getting grant money. In the US they had no trouble spending 'nanotech' money for their usual pursuits.
Also don't forget that this paradigm shift is a threat to the way they've learned to do things. Never underestimate how far powerful people will go when they are faced with what they view as an existential threat. Look at how willing Nobelist Smalley was to flatly lie about what Drexler was proposing and his first choice of a forum, one notorious for not allowing those attacked to respond, for an example of this.
As for point B, it's not just the Asian nations: I don't know about their current status, but it was Brazil's scientific establishment that Feynman viewed up close and personally during an extended visit that prompted him to formulate the cargo cult science concept. Looking at where Nobelists actually did their work would be one way of taking a stab at the question.
http://lifeboat.com/ex/bios.brian.l.wang
The Author is an MBA from Canadian universities!
What authority the author has to talk on this subject he isn't a PhD in Chemistry, Physics or or Chemical or even Electrical Engineering?
Locklin is an idiot neverthless.
The Author is an MBA from Canadian universities!
What authority the author has to talk on this subject he isn't a PhD in Chemistry, Physics or or Chemical or even Electrical Engineering?
Locklin is an idiot neverthless.
Given that the topic is legislative machinations about (research) funding and the diversion of such funding, it would seem to be well within his formal education on the subjects.
If you look at his list of publications you'll see they probably assume the science and technology (and he does have a CS undergraduate degree) and focus on appropriate stuff beyond that.
And all that said, you don't have to be too familiar with the science and engineering that Drexler has proposed to know when someone is misrepresenting it as grossly as Locklin. Just like anyone with a basic understanding of chemistry and Drexler's writings could tell that Smalley's "fat fingers" (emphasis on plural) was a strawman, since at that time Drexler had never proposed multiple "fingers" for just the reason Smally pointed out (not enough room for them to fit; qualification because I don't know anything about the current DNA approaches that are exciting a lot of people).
If you look at his list of publications you'll see they probably assume the science and technology (and he does have a CS undergraduate degree) and focus on appropriate stuff beyond that.
And all that said, you don't have to be too familiar with the science and engineering that Drexler has proposed to know when someone is misrepresenting it as grossly as Locklin. Just like anyone with a basic understanding of chemistry and Drexler's writings could tell that Smalley's "fat fingers" (emphasis on plural) was a strawman, since at that time Drexler had never proposed multiple "fingers" for just the reason Smally pointed out (not enough room for them to fit; qualification because I don't know anything about the current DNA approaches that are exciting a lot of people).
btw -
http://www.foresight.org/Updates/Update26/Update26.1.html
From 1996 part of the claim about making centimeter lenths of carbon nanotubes within the year and a mention about spooling them. Smalley claimed that the spooling was just around the corner as well. Carbon nanotubes have a billion dollars or more per year industry for some time and have had over a billion spent on R&D. We are now at about 1000 tons per year for total world production and the common lengths are usually a millimeter or less. Centimeter lengths are still rare. Nanocomp technologies is one of the main companies working with longer than millimeter or centimeter lengths and making a few tons per year of those lengths.
From 1996 part of the claim about making centimeter lenths of carbon nanotubes within the year and a mention about spooling them. Smalley claimed that the spooling was just around the corner as well. Carbon nanotubes have a billion dollars or more per year industry for some time and have had over a billion spent on R&D. We are now at about 1000 tons per year for total world production and the common lengths are usually a millimeter or less. Centimeter lengths are still rare. Nanocomp technologies is one of the main companies working with longer than millimeter or centimeter lengths and making a few tons per year of those lengths.
HackerNews has ruined my ability to read articles like this.
I got one paragraph in, saw him call somebody an "idiot", and hit the back button. Comments here have shown that ad hominem attacks are a strong indicator of a bad argument, so I've been trained to filter them out.
I got one paragraph in, saw him call somebody an "idiot", and hit the back button. Comments here have shown that ad hominem attacks are a strong indicator of a bad argument, so I've been trained to filter them out.
Well ... one problem we have here is that Drexler style nanotech is something that attracts a lot of cranks or just people who don't get it (Drexler related sometime in the '80s or so the need to convince an acquaintance that it is incapable of transmuting the contents of an ICBM warhead in flight...).
However, you mischaracterize the author: his only use of idiot as a root word is "It is idiotic to blame Drexler, Merkle, Freitas when they did not get the money" (plus a repeat of this thesis statement at the end). He's saying Locklin and company's behavior is idiotic, not that they are idiots, which is at least to me a very different thing.
He then goes on to state why his thesis is self-evidently true (they've never got the funding to try out their ideas). I have no trouble with this style of argument.
However, you mischaracterize the author: his only use of idiot as a root word is "It is idiotic to blame Drexler, Merkle, Freitas when they did not get the money" (plus a repeat of this thesis statement at the end). He's saying Locklin and company's behavior is idiotic, not that they are idiots, which is at least to me a very different thing.
He then goes on to state why his thesis is self-evidently true (they've never got the funding to try out their ideas). I have no trouble with this style of argument.
I stand corrected. "Idiotic" appears in that paragraph, but the actual ad-hom attack is "since he is a flamebaiting troll".
He makes no attempt to refute the person he attacks, and the only point of the attack seems to be that he's not linking to that person, because he doesn't like him.
Why bring it up at all? Why not just write your article, refute any arguments that need refuting, and try to sound like somebody worth listening to?
That sort of tone gets you voted down to -4 here in comments. It gets your article skipped too.
He makes no attempt to refute the person he attacks, and the only point of the attack seems to be that he's not linking to that person, because he doesn't like him.
Why bring it up at all? Why not just write your article, refute any arguments that need refuting, and try to sound like somebody worth listening to?
That sort of tone gets you voted down to -4 here in comments. It gets your article skipped too.
As for Smalley. There have been mechanosynthesis experiments which have broken and made covalent bonds. So anyone who claims there is a scientific flaw in the concepts of mechanosynthesis needs to address this evidence. Also, Smalley promised rocking chair carbon nanotubes for transforming the electrical grid. But tens of millions have been spent there and there has not been one commercial watt transmitted with carbon nanotubes. I am aware that there is slow progress but there are huge gaps between what Smalley promised back in 1995 and what has been done. I was also present when Smalley was giving a talk at one of the Foresight conferences and said that within a year he would be creating carbon nanotubes so long that they would be spooled onto a spindle. Meters long. It was about 13 years later that anything approaching that length was produced and it was done by Windel at Cambridge and only for a few strands. Of course Smalley died but it was not Rice University.
This is just to show that Smalley (nobel prize winner) and his authority does not make him immune from being wrong. So neither does any authority claimed by Locklin. And I do not expect any authority from me to make a case. I expect facts and logic to make the case.
currently there is a project by Philip Moriarty in the UK to try and prove the computational chemistry work of Merkle and Freitas. There has been a delay getting the equipment and the perfectly smooth surface acquired. the equipment took a little over a year and is there now but as of a conversation with Merkle and Freitas a few months ago, they indicated that Moriarty indicated the atomically smooth surface was holding up the main experimentation.