Notes From a Meeting with Warren Buffett(undergroundvalue.blogspot.com)
undergroundvalue.blogspot.com
Notes From a Meeting with Warren Buffett
http://undergroundvalue.blogspot.com/2008/02/notes-from-buffett-meeting-2152008_23.html
10 comments
Buffet's investing record puts him on a league of his own. But his humility and compassion, in spite of all the wealth, now that's exceptional.
Excellent article. It seems what he said about classmates would also apply to choosing a startup founder:
What if you could buy 10% of one of your classmates and their future earnings? You wouldn't buy the ones with the highest IQ, the best grades, etc, but the most effective. You like people who are generous, go out of their way, straight shooters. Now imagine that you could short 10% of one of your classmates. This part is usually more fun as you start looking around the room. You wouldn't choose the ones with the poorest grades. Look for people nobody wants to be around, that are obnoxious or like to take all the credit. If you have a 500 HP engine and only get 50 HP out of it, you'll be beat by someone else that has a 300 HP engine but gets 250 HP output. The difference between potential and output comes from human qualities. You can make a list of the qualities you admire and those you despise. To turn the tables, think if this is the way I react to the qualities on the list, which is the way the world will react to me. You can learn to turn on those qualities you want and turn off those qualities you wish to avoid. The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. You can't change at 60; the time to look at that list is now
What if you could buy 10% of one of your classmates and their future earnings? You wouldn't buy the ones with the highest IQ, the best grades, etc, but the most effective. You like people who are generous, go out of their way, straight shooters. Now imagine that you could short 10% of one of your classmates. This part is usually more fun as you start looking around the room. You wouldn't choose the ones with the poorest grades. Look for people nobody wants to be around, that are obnoxious or like to take all the credit. If you have a 500 HP engine and only get 50 HP out of it, you'll be beat by someone else that has a 300 HP engine but gets 250 HP output. The difference between potential and output comes from human qualities. You can make a list of the qualities you admire and those you despise. To turn the tables, think if this is the way I react to the qualities on the list, which is the way the world will react to me. You can learn to turn on those qualities you want and turn off those qualities you wish to avoid. The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. You can't change at 60; the time to look at that list is now
"If I wanted to do something wild & crazy I could do it, but Anna Nicole Smith is gone. Reminds me of the story of the 60 year old man that got a 25 year old to marry him. When his friends asked how he did it, he replied, “I told her I was 90.”
And that, people, is how that guy is rich.
And that, people, is how that guy is rich.
"If you want a great business, take Coca-Cola. The product is unchanged, they sell 1.5 billion 8 ounce servings per day 122 years later."
1.5 BILLION servings of Coke a day?! That's 1 for every 4 humans on this planet. Now that is a crazy stat (and I thought Starbucks opening 7 stores per day was crazy)
1.5 BILLION servings of Coke a day?! That's 1 for every 4 humans on this planet. Now that is a crazy stat (and I thought Starbucks opening 7 stores per day was crazy)
Well he is talking 8 ounce servings, which means I had eight servings myself today (medium coke at Taco Johns for lunch, with one refill). So I'd guess Americans make up about half of those servings, since our drinks are so absurdly large.
Was an interesting aspect of living in Spain. I had to get used to making an 11 ounce bottle of coke last a whole meal, or pay another $3 for a 'refill'.
Was an interesting aspect of living in Spain. I had to get used to making an 11 ounce bottle of coke last a whole meal, or pay another $3 for a 'refill'.
Berkshire Hathway's letters to their shareholders is a great read as well.
Also, look up Charlie Munger and his essays, the #2 guy after Warren buffet.
Also, look up Charlie Munger and his essays, the #2 guy after Warren buffet.
Disturbing. I find it strange that no one reacted to this part yet :
"I had nothing to do with my own success. [...] I was born with the wiring for capital asset allocation. I had the right wiring at the right time. Temperament is a large part of my wiring. I was naturally good at it, and I used some feedback to develop it better.[...]"
Do you realize the logical assumption behind such statement ?
It means that if you fail, you're not responsible either, because you weren't born in the right place at the right time with the right "wiring". So basically Mr. Buffet doesn't believe in free will, and if you're on the lucky side, "there is no reason to feel guilty about it.". If you're on the unlucky side, there is really nothing you could do about it but try to be happy anyway with what you have.
But isn't the american society based on individual merit ? "Anyone can succeed if he really wants to", wich leads to the logical implication that "if you fail, it's also your fault". Mr. Buffet's philosophical conclusions can be summed up by his "ovarian lottery" metaphor that comes up a lot of times in the interview : you won in the vagina, should you apologize to the others ? Then why should it be different in the society, son ?
Now let me be clear : I'm not emitting a moral judgment about what Mr Buffet says, that he should believe something else or whatever. I just find it paradoxal that Mr. Buffet, wich is one of the icon of the american society, tends to not believe in what makes the heart of the american society paradigm : free will & individual merit.
"I had nothing to do with my own success. [...] I was born with the wiring for capital asset allocation. I had the right wiring at the right time. Temperament is a large part of my wiring. I was naturally good at it, and I used some feedback to develop it better.[...]"
Do you realize the logical assumption behind such statement ?
It means that if you fail, you're not responsible either, because you weren't born in the right place at the right time with the right "wiring". So basically Mr. Buffet doesn't believe in free will, and if you're on the lucky side, "there is no reason to feel guilty about it.". If you're on the unlucky side, there is really nothing you could do about it but try to be happy anyway with what you have.
But isn't the american society based on individual merit ? "Anyone can succeed if he really wants to", wich leads to the logical implication that "if you fail, it's also your fault". Mr. Buffet's philosophical conclusions can be summed up by his "ovarian lottery" metaphor that comes up a lot of times in the interview : you won in the vagina, should you apologize to the others ? Then why should it be different in the society, son ?
Now let me be clear : I'm not emitting a moral judgment about what Mr Buffet says, that he should believe something else or whatever. I just find it paradoxal that Mr. Buffet, wich is one of the icon of the american society, tends to not believe in what makes the heart of the american society paradigm : free will & individual merit.
Plenty of people don't believe in free-will; in fact as computer scientists, many times with interests in AI, I'd suspect the majority of us are complete mechanists.
Free will has always been a very disputed notion since the Greeks, but the debate took another dimension with Freud's discover of subcounscious. As I said in my conclusion, I did not intend to open such a vaste debate here, I just noticed the paradox of Mr Buffet stance on this matter considering the core values of the society in wich he lives (and what he represents).
Yeah... while I don't believe in free-will, belief in fate is not a life philosophy. It's the kind of thing you want to ignore and pretend doesn't actually exist because it is not a happy conclusion.
The paragraph at the end of the notes is possibly the most relevant to startups:
"After a talk at Harvard, I told them to work for who they admired the most, so they all become self-employed. It’s important to go to work for someone or some organization you admire."
"After a talk at Harvard, I told them to work for who they admired the most, so they all become self-employed. It’s important to go to work for someone or some organization you admire."
I think that's a dig at Harvard...
I always like it when a billionaire says "To focus on what you don’t have is a terrible mistake. With the gifts all of us have, if you are unhappy, it’s your own fault."
Is it so much for a person to want to own their home, have a personal savings, have health care, and be able to retire at a reasonable age? I don't think it is a 'mistake' to want for any of these things, and sadly, there are a good number of people in the world that this is not accessible to.
Is it so much for a person to want to own their home, have a personal savings, have health care, and be able to retire at a reasonable age? I don't think it is a 'mistake' to want for any of these things, and sadly, there are a good number of people in the world that this is not accessible to.
"and sadly, there are a good number of people in the world that this is not accessible to"
This was (and has always been) Buffet's point. Everyone in America has won the 'ovarian lottery' (as he calls it) because we were born here with the opportunity to achieve all those things and more. He's not implying it's only possible here, and he is not implying everyone should be happy where they are. He is just saying we should be thankful that we live in a country that generally makes it possible, and even probable.
This was (and has always been) Buffet's point. Everyone in America has won the 'ovarian lottery' (as he calls it) because we were born here with the opportunity to achieve all those things and more. He's not implying it's only possible here, and he is not implying everyone should be happy where they are. He is just saying we should be thankful that we live in a country that generally makes it possible, and even probable.
Replace 'world' with 'US' and the statement still stands. In fact, being born into poverty in the US is very unlucky because it is highly unlikely that you will achieve a fraction of the success of your more well funded peers. It is possible, but unlikely.
The fact that you have the opportunity to become super rich is no 'gift' when you consider that the most likely outcome is that you will work a shit job making shit money so some asshole like Buffet can squawk about how grateful you should be.
Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with people getting rich. But please realize that the gap between the average Joe and the Warren Buffets of the world has been growing larger for quite some time.
The fact that you have the opportunity to become super rich is no 'gift' when you consider that the most likely outcome is that you will work a shit job making shit money so some asshole like Buffet can squawk about how grateful you should be.
Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with people getting rich. But please realize that the gap between the average Joe and the Warren Buffets of the world has been growing larger for quite some time.
"it is highly unlikely that you will achieve a fraction of the success of your more well funded peers"
Just goes to show that the human psyche cares more about relative prosperity than absolute prosperity. This is well documented in research. Still, I have to question why you would prefer to be 'rich' in a place without running water rather than be 'poor' in America (where the poor people only have one TV and have to drive used cars).
Of course, there are a lot of people worse off than my above glibness suggests, and I think we should definitely be doing all we can to help those people out, but don't try and claim being poor in America is somehow worse than being poor anywhere else just because people like Warren Buffet live here.
"Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with people getting rich."
The fact that you called Warren Buffet an asshole shows that you do. If you knew anything about the guy, you'd know he doesn't rate anywhere on the asshole scale. My guess he is just a soft target because he happens to be so rich that he is a statistically anomaly.
Just goes to show that the human psyche cares more about relative prosperity than absolute prosperity. This is well documented in research. Still, I have to question why you would prefer to be 'rich' in a place without running water rather than be 'poor' in America (where the poor people only have one TV and have to drive used cars).
Of course, there are a lot of people worse off than my above glibness suggests, and I think we should definitely be doing all we can to help those people out, but don't try and claim being poor in America is somehow worse than being poor anywhere else just because people like Warren Buffet live here.
"Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with people getting rich."
The fact that you called Warren Buffet an asshole shows that you do. If you knew anything about the guy, you'd know he doesn't rate anywhere on the asshole scale. My guess he is just a soft target because he happens to be so rich that he is a statistically anomaly.
You seem to consider quality of life as something you can measure by material gain. Nobody cares about televisions and cars when they come down with cancer and can't afford treatment.
Being rich in America is certainly great. Being poor in America is not that much different than being poor in the developing world, aside from the better hand-me-downs.
Being rich in America is certainly great. Being poor in America is not that much different than being poor in the developing world, aside from the better hand-me-downs.
I'd suggest traveling to a country in the developing world before making a statement like that.
Clean water (ie, no Malaria), soup kitchens, human rights, no shanty towns, opportunity to improve your life, and the availability of public education provide a safety net that developing countries often lack.
Being poor in America is surely difficult, but I'd much rather be poor here (or in the developed world in general) than be poor in a 3rd world country.
Clean water (ie, no Malaria), soup kitchens, human rights, no shanty towns, opportunity to improve your life, and the availability of public education provide a safety net that developing countries often lack.
Being poor in America is surely difficult, but I'd much rather be poor here (or in the developed world in general) than be poor in a 3rd world country.
I'm speechless. Now I finally understand why all of those poor Americans in makeshift boats are sailing to Cuba or south across the Rio Grande.
I think you guys missed the point of this downmodded guy's argument because he focused on the wrong thing. In the world economy today, if you're born poor, whether in America or the third world, you're not going to end up like Warren Buffett. It's impossible to go from the lower class to being an uber-capitalist.
You are probably right... I think all the opportunities to pull a Andrew Carnegie or Bill Gates or Sergey Brin/Larry Page in our current economy require education, (some) resources, and free time to tinker, which is really hard when you are living hand to mouth.
The ability to social climb probably requires several generations at this point. First getting into the middle class, then the upper middle class, then finally into the owner class. I still say it's possible, but yeah, it'd require a brilliant mind and a lot of luck to do it all in one leap.
The ability to social climb probably requires several generations at this point. First getting into the middle class, then the upper middle class, then finally into the owner class. I still say it's possible, but yeah, it'd require a brilliant mind and a lot of luck to do it all in one leap.
Larry Ellison wasn't completely destitute but he started out less than well off. He's done pretty well.
From this page (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/index2.ht...) at the World Health Organization:
"In high-income countries more than two-thirds of all people live beyond the age of 70 and die of chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive lung disease, cancers, diabetes or dementia. Lung infection remains the only leading infectious cause of death.
...
In low-income countries less than a quarter of all people reach the age of 70, and nearly a third of all deaths are among children under 14. Although cardiovascular diseases together represent the leading cause of death in these countries, infectious diseases (above all HIV/AIDS, lung infections, tuberculosis, diarrheal diseases and malaria) together claim more lives. Complications of pregnancy and childbirth together continue to be a leading cause of death, claiming the lives of both infants and mothers."
Still think that being poor in America is as terrible as being poor in the developing world? How many kids do you know of that die of diarrhea in America? I'm not saying either situation is a panacea, but seriously, everyone in this country won the 'ovarian lottery' just by being here.
Anyway, this is getting way off topic...
"In high-income countries more than two-thirds of all people live beyond the age of 70 and die of chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive lung disease, cancers, diabetes or dementia. Lung infection remains the only leading infectious cause of death.
...
In low-income countries less than a quarter of all people reach the age of 70, and nearly a third of all deaths are among children under 14. Although cardiovascular diseases together represent the leading cause of death in these countries, infectious diseases (above all HIV/AIDS, lung infections, tuberculosis, diarrheal diseases and malaria) together claim more lives. Complications of pregnancy and childbirth together continue to be a leading cause of death, claiming the lives of both infants and mothers."
Still think that being poor in America is as terrible as being poor in the developing world? How many kids do you know of that die of diarrhea in America? I'm not saying either situation is a panacea, but seriously, everyone in this country won the 'ovarian lottery' just by being here.
Anyway, this is getting way off topic...
Beats working all day every day and still watching your children starve to death in front of your eyes. I've worked fast food and custodial and I'll still take that over what billions of people on this Earth have.
Why so negative? He said a lot of wise things, billionaire or not.
"The difference between potential and output comes from human qualities." - brilliantly put.
"The difference between potential and output comes from human qualities." - brilliantly put.
I'll offer up a defense, and point out that he was speaking to a group of MBA students at a prestigious school. None of the members of his audience are going to want for any of the things that you listed.
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that's what everyone else wants. get your own life.
This is excellent stuff.