Intel's Fall from Grace(cacm.acm.org)
cacm.acm.org
Intel's Fall from Grace
https://cacm.acm.org/opinion/intels-fall-from-grace/
5 comments
The metastory here is actually about Intel, Boeing, and most recently, Chrysler. How they each did it is a little different, but they all turned the dial all the way to "short-term profit."
I often wonder whether there's a correlation between the reduction in a company's profitability and quality with its decision to hire cheaper offshore workers, or insourcing cheaper workers from abroad. I wonder if the smart money did any type of internal studies regarding this type of correlation.
Any strategy or tactic option works based on its fit with circumstances. Given that, it’s usually fine details of situation and execution that produce success or failure.
And where to find enough companies reflecting Intel’s situation, without confounding factors, for a survey?
“Correlations” are not the best inputs for business decisions.
But I don’t doubt there would have been lots of consultants ready to manufacture such a survey if Intel had signaled demand…
And where to find enough companies reflecting Intel’s situation, without confounding factors, for a survey?
“Correlations” are not the best inputs for business decisions.
But I don’t doubt there would have been lots of consultants ready to manufacture such a survey if Intel had signaled demand…
I don't get why Intel had to scrap 20A and try to go for 18A, making things that much harder for themselves in the process while they're already in a tricky position, especially with speculation and mixed messaging and stuff like this: https://overclock3d.net/news/misc/former-intel-ceo-speaks-ou...
It feels like every delay is pretty bad for their image and the public opinion, though of course I can't quantify it. It would probably be a bit different if they were shipping products: Core Ultra was a bit of a sidegrade in some respects but with better pricing it would actually be a good option. Even their Intel Arc cards had a rough launch but despite that most of the issues have been largely addressed and things are looking up, especially for the pricing that they can pull off and the market segment that they're targetting (like AMD also pulling out from the high end, because they can't compete with Nvidia).
My current CPU is a Ryzen 5 4500, which uses a "7nm" process and which PassMark tells me is smack dab in the middle of everything that's available out there. Something like the Core Ultra 245K would be a very significant improvement, even a lower TDP part would be good, as long as it's priced correctly. Yet, Intel is trying for a moonshot with 18A instead of getting something "good enough" out there and competing on price, while doing that was more or less what let AMD survive for years (e.g. before Ryzen), doing which would probably put them in a more stable position and would let them iterate.
It feels like every delay is pretty bad for their image and the public opinion, though of course I can't quantify it. It would probably be a bit different if they were shipping products: Core Ultra was a bit of a sidegrade in some respects but with better pricing it would actually be a good option. Even their Intel Arc cards had a rough launch but despite that most of the issues have been largely addressed and things are looking up, especially for the pricing that they can pull off and the market segment that they're targetting (like AMD also pulling out from the high end, because they can't compete with Nvidia).
My current CPU is a Ryzen 5 4500, which uses a "7nm" process and which PassMark tells me is smack dab in the middle of everything that's available out there. Something like the Core Ultra 245K would be a very significant improvement, even a lower TDP part would be good, as long as it's priced correctly. Yet, Intel is trying for a moonshot with 18A instead of getting something "good enough" out there and competing on price, while doing that was more or less what let AMD survive for years (e.g. before Ryzen), doing which would probably put them in a more stable position and would let them iterate.
Scrapping 20A was an excellent decision.
That CMOS fabrication process was intended for a single Intel product, the laptop CPUs Arrow Lake H, which will now be made by TSMC.
The costs for bringing that process good enough for mass production would have never been recovered.
It is much better to channel all resources to improving the fabrication yields of the superior 18A fabrication process, which is intended to be used for many important Intel products, including server CPUs, and also for any external customers they will be able to lure.
While Intel has used a slogan like "5 nodes in 4 years", two of those were actually half nodes, i.e. "Intel 3" is an improved variant of "Intel 4" and "Intel 18A" is an improved variant of "Intel 20A".
It would have been much better for Intel if they would have also skipped "Intel 4", but they were in a hurry to launch Meteor Lake before the end of 2023 and "Intel 3" would not have been ready for mass production by that time, and they were still not convinced that they must completely outsource the fabrication of their CPU chips until they have a competitive fabrication process.
With some difficulties, Intel has succeeded until now to meet all their milestones toward their stated goal of having a competitive fabrication process, i.e. 18A, and competitive CPUs, by the end of 2025.
The main thing that can be criticized about their roadmap is that it had included too many intermediate steps, with not yet competitive fabrication processes and CPUs, which have required nonetheless a lot of development efforts, slowing the progress towards the real goal. Nevertheless, it is likely that most of the intermediate steps have been unavoidable, because without new products for a couple of years their sales would have been even lower and their losses greater.
Only if Pat Gelsinger would have remained CEO until that time (one year from now) it would have been possible to assess whether he has been a bad CEO or a good CEO.
That CMOS fabrication process was intended for a single Intel product, the laptop CPUs Arrow Lake H, which will now be made by TSMC.
The costs for bringing that process good enough for mass production would have never been recovered.
It is much better to channel all resources to improving the fabrication yields of the superior 18A fabrication process, which is intended to be used for many important Intel products, including server CPUs, and also for any external customers they will be able to lure.
While Intel has used a slogan like "5 nodes in 4 years", two of those were actually half nodes, i.e. "Intel 3" is an improved variant of "Intel 4" and "Intel 18A" is an improved variant of "Intel 20A".
It would have been much better for Intel if they would have also skipped "Intel 4", but they were in a hurry to launch Meteor Lake before the end of 2023 and "Intel 3" would not have been ready for mass production by that time, and they were still not convinced that they must completely outsource the fabrication of their CPU chips until they have a competitive fabrication process.
With some difficulties, Intel has succeeded until now to meet all their milestones toward their stated goal of having a competitive fabrication process, i.e. 18A, and competitive CPUs, by the end of 2025.
The main thing that can be criticized about their roadmap is that it had included too many intermediate steps, with not yet competitive fabrication processes and CPUs, which have required nonetheless a lot of development efforts, slowing the progress towards the real goal. Nevertheless, it is likely that most of the intermediate steps have been unavoidable, because without new products for a couple of years their sales would have been even lower and their losses greater.
Only if Pat Gelsinger would have remained CEO until that time (one year from now) it would have been possible to assess whether he has been a bad CEO or a good CEO.
Leading-edge semiconductors is a hell of a business. It requires so, so much investment and time and if you can't comprehensively beat the competition your product is almost worthless.
Companies and governments alike have tried to enter the industry and failed over and over. And even staying in it was a struggle for Intel once the pressure was on.
I'm not sure if or how that will ever change. Unless someone comes up with a complete revolution for chip manufacturing that makes the process far easier and simpler than anything we have today, while keeping close to the same performance - I don't think it will. Or if we move to some completely new technology with no similarities at all to silicon - so that new blood can make significant progress.
Companies and governments alike have tried to enter the industry and failed over and over. And even staying in it was a struggle for Intel once the pressure was on.
I'm not sure if or how that will ever change. Unless someone comes up with a complete revolution for chip manufacturing that makes the process far easier and simpler than anything we have today, while keeping close to the same performance - I don't think it will. Or if we move to some completely new technology with no similarities at all to silicon - so that new blood can make significant progress.
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"Every Thursday I do a 24 hour prayer and fasting day . This week I'd invite you to join me in praying and fasting for the 100K Intel employees as they navigate this difficult period. Intel and its team is of seminal importance to the future of the industry and US".
https://x.com/PGelsinger/status/1865783256551133472?t=So3tqq...
Former CEO seems to think that the problems are spiritual
https://x.com/PGelsinger/status/1865783256551133472?t=So3tqq...
Former CEO seems to think that the problems are spiritual
Often when worldly things fail, people turn to spirituality for guidance.
I don't think the former CEO thinks that is a spiritual problem, I think he just feels like there is nothing else that he could do.
I don't think the former CEO thinks that is a spiritual problem, I think he just feels like there is nothing else that he could do.
Sign of a massive process failure in and of itself, no? If the shareholders want to pay someone to pray there are plenty of cheap priests available. He's just manifestly not doing his job.
I don't know if you missed the news but the board removed him and he retired[1] about a week before this tweet.
[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42296067
[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42296067
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