Ask HN: Are you preparing for WW3? If so, how? If not, why not?
23 comments
I live and work within a nuclear blast radius[0] of both China and Russia's current weapon of choice, therefore I am doing nothing to prepare for a hypothetical WW3. To be honest, "prepping" sounds like a pretty unhealthy way to live, and I see no specific basis for believing WW3 is particularly likely in the short term. Seems like it is anxiety from watching too much news.
My biggest fears in my lifetime and water-wars and China's gender imbalance (i.e., too many men who won't find a +1 and will get angry). Historically energy was also a big motivator for war, but with renewables if countries get their act together, it could genuinely smooth that out quite a lot.
Do I think these will lead to "World Wars?" Actually, no, because nuclear war is bad for everyone. But we will see more Ukraine-like invasions into neighboring countries. If I was in China's backyard, I'd be particularly nervous.
[0] https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
My biggest fears in my lifetime and water-wars and China's gender imbalance (i.e., too many men who won't find a +1 and will get angry). Historically energy was also a big motivator for war, but with renewables if countries get their act together, it could genuinely smooth that out quite a lot.
Do I think these will lead to "World Wars?" Actually, no, because nuclear war is bad for everyone. But we will see more Ukraine-like invasions into neighboring countries. If I was in China's backyard, I'd be particularly nervous.
[0] https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
How is prepping for disasters unhealthy?
A few years ago when stores were running out of TP, meds, etc, preppers were the ones laughing.
You don't need to go full blown bunker in the backyard to prep a bit just in case.
A few years ago when stores were running out of TP, meds, etc, preppers were the ones laughing.
You don't need to go full blown bunker in the backyard to prep a bit just in case.
> To be honest, "prepping" sounds like a pretty unhealthy way to live, and I see no specific basis for believing WW3 is particularly likely in the short term. Seems like it is anxiety from watching too much news.
It's absolutely from keeping an eye on the news, and probably too much. That's pretty much where all non-local anxiety comes from isn't it?
I agree, full on prepping seems like it could be unhealthy. But it seems like there should be less drastic measures that are overall positive and prudent whether or not war comes (for example the archiving I mentioned).
Or maybe even the opposite, maybe we should take more risks (in life, love, business, etc) now because life is ephemeral anyway?
It's absolutely from keeping an eye on the news, and probably too much. That's pretty much where all non-local anxiety comes from isn't it?
I agree, full on prepping seems like it could be unhealthy. But it seems like there should be less drastic measures that are overall positive and prudent whether or not war comes (for example the archiving I mentioned).
Or maybe even the opposite, maybe we should take more risks (in life, love, business, etc) now because life is ephemeral anyway?
>It's absolutely from keeping an eye on the news, and probably too much. That's pretty much where all non-local anxiety comes from isn't it?
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Prepping could be making sure you have enough food to last 3 days, have an first aid kite, a plan, backup information documents in a second location or meet up location for loved ones. All sensible things your local fire department will advice to do.
You don't have to build a bomb shelter. You are more likely to run into a weather event compared to war. Don't ignore a basic prep.
You don't have to build a bomb shelter. You are more likely to run into a weather event compared to war. Don't ignore a basic prep.
I agree with this.
I kinda wish I chose a different word than "preparing" because I think it's anchoring people on a certain stereotype, which I do think is interesting and relevant, but I think only covers a small part of how you might adjust your life if you think war is a legitimate risk.
For example, maybe you might join (or attempt to leave) the armed forces or some public office. Maybe you'd try to move countries or change jobs in some way. Maybe you'd start trying to improve your physical health. Maybe you would alter plans around having kids. Maybe you'd try to build some tools that would be useful for you and your family in a time of war. The full on prepper bunker is a relevant answer, but I'm interested in more than that.
I'm also interested in hearing from the people whose answer is get up, work, eat, sleep, repeat, just like every other day.
I kinda wish I chose a different word than "preparing" because I think it's anchoring people on a certain stereotype, which I do think is interesting and relevant, but I think only covers a small part of how you might adjust your life if you think war is a legitimate risk.
For example, maybe you might join (or attempt to leave) the armed forces or some public office. Maybe you'd try to move countries or change jobs in some way. Maybe you'd start trying to improve your physical health. Maybe you would alter plans around having kids. Maybe you'd try to build some tools that would be useful for you and your family in a time of war. The full on prepper bunker is a relevant answer, but I'm interested in more than that.
I'm also interested in hearing from the people whose answer is get up, work, eat, sleep, repeat, just like every other day.
I bought a radiation dosimeter (GQ GMC-500Plus) as well as some iodine tablets. I also have several jugs of water, large bags of rice and beans, a few paper books and basic first aid supplies.
Last April I made a sign that says "WE ARE SLEEPWALKING INTO NUCLEAR WAR" and I spent some time holding it up on a busy intersection near my home in Chattanooga, TN. I decided to do this after seeing the way I was shadowbanned on social media for occasional posts in protest of clearly harmful media narratives. I don't think that I am likely to change the course of events at all, but it beats just sitting on your hands and sulking about it:
https://twitter.com/realTaraHarris/status/152157741487430451...
https://twitter.com/realTaraHarris/status/161793964289205862...
I am saddened that a larger anti-war movement has not materialized by this point. Something foul happened to American media after the second Iraq war.
Edit: go head and downvote me. I'm just honestly answering the OP's question. I'll protest the American empire, in real life on the street, for an additional hour for each downvote I get.
Last April I made a sign that says "WE ARE SLEEPWALKING INTO NUCLEAR WAR" and I spent some time holding it up on a busy intersection near my home in Chattanooga, TN. I decided to do this after seeing the way I was shadowbanned on social media for occasional posts in protest of clearly harmful media narratives. I don't think that I am likely to change the course of events at all, but it beats just sitting on your hands and sulking about it:
https://twitter.com/realTaraHarris/status/152157741487430451...
https://twitter.com/realTaraHarris/status/161793964289205862...
I am saddened that a larger anti-war movement has not materialized by this point. Something foul happened to American media after the second Iraq war.
Edit: go head and downvote me. I'm just honestly answering the OP's question. I'll protest the American empire, in real life on the street, for an additional hour for each downvote I get.
I don't share your view specifically but I'm angered that social media has taken away another viewpoint. Stop hiding people's truth and let everyone decide for themselves.
Currently, anti-war movement would be stupid in US. Anti-war movement can work if war is pointless in political best interests, like Vietnam War or Afghanistan.
If Russia is allowed to run wild in Eastern Europe and China on the Pacific, then the core of American social contract would be endangered. You cannot be advocating against wars without providing a solution to aggressive authoritarian countries that want to take over US hegemony. US needs to be ready defending it position even if there is risk of nuclear war. If anything, US was too soft in last two decades. Obama Russia reset was a mistake and Trump clumsy trade war with China was too weak and too late.
If Russia is allowed to run wild in Eastern Europe and China on the Pacific, then the core of American social contract would be endangered. You cannot be advocating against wars without providing a solution to aggressive authoritarian countries that want to take over US hegemony. US needs to be ready defending it position even if there is risk of nuclear war. If anything, US was too soft in last two decades. Obama Russia reset was a mistake and Trump clumsy trade war with China was too weak and too late.
But the core premise of the "American social contract" seems to be that the US remains the global arbiter and police.
Does the US:
* Have the moral standing to do this anymore?
* Have the actual economic resources to do this forever?
* Have the actual understanding of other countries' needs and histories to do it in a constructive way?
You could make some modest case for the US hegemony in 1946. There was no other major power that was fully industrialized, not massively damaged by on-site war, and politically and economically stable. They could be the stable, mature voice in the room to help lead the newly peaceful world to progress and prosperity.
Is that necessary in 2023? We have multiple stable, strong economic powers. Indeed, there is value in moving towards a "disagreement of equals" when it comes to global challenges: there may be problems where we may need to look at a Chinese, Russian, or European model for the best solution.
As for "aggressive authoritarian countries"-- I've always wondered: if democracy is so self-evidently wonderful, why doesn't it automatically win?
From an optimistic perspective, I suspect it's a matter of democracy being a fragile system, requiring a lot of social and economic preconditions to survive, so maybe we need to be building those conditions first, even if it means "supporting authoritarian regimes" today, so when the time comes, democracy can take hold and survive. From a pessimistic one, I wonder if maybe authoritarianism is valid in and of itself-- it's efficient and capable of making the unpopular choices elected officials hide from. But the West sure loathes it because it undermines the individualist "I am the main character, my decisions and opinions matter" mentality.
Does the US:
* Have the moral standing to do this anymore?
* Have the actual economic resources to do this forever?
* Have the actual understanding of other countries' needs and histories to do it in a constructive way?
You could make some modest case for the US hegemony in 1946. There was no other major power that was fully industrialized, not massively damaged by on-site war, and politically and economically stable. They could be the stable, mature voice in the room to help lead the newly peaceful world to progress and prosperity.
Is that necessary in 2023? We have multiple stable, strong economic powers. Indeed, there is value in moving towards a "disagreement of equals" when it comes to global challenges: there may be problems where we may need to look at a Chinese, Russian, or European model for the best solution.
As for "aggressive authoritarian countries"-- I've always wondered: if democracy is so self-evidently wonderful, why doesn't it automatically win?
From an optimistic perspective, I suspect it's a matter of democracy being a fragile system, requiring a lot of social and economic preconditions to survive, so maybe we need to be building those conditions first, even if it means "supporting authoritarian regimes" today, so when the time comes, democracy can take hold and survive. From a pessimistic one, I wonder if maybe authoritarianism is valid in and of itself-- it's efficient and capable of making the unpopular choices elected officials hide from. But the West sure loathes it because it undermines the individualist "I am the main character, my decisions and opinions matter" mentality.
Solution: a trilateral agreement between the US, China and Russia that the intelligence establishments of each major power be progressively destroyed, leaving a world without large-scale state-sponsored secrecy.
Official secrecy is the ultimate weapon in any authoritarian regime. No illegitimate government can survive without it.
To be sure, private actors can attempt to retain secrets, but they simply do not have the resources to destroy the world in the way that even a small nation (let alone a nuclear superpower) does.
If this sounds impractical, take the New START treaty as a model. Let's have fully open teams of international inspectors that monitor the number of spies employed at the CIA HQ in Langley, VA, at the Ministry of State Security in Beijing, and at FSB HQ in Moscow. These agencies, and all others like them, should be progressively dismantled in lockstep, on a timetable set by treaty. The files they all keep should be made open to the public and used to teach future generations that secrecy itself is a weapon that repeatedly brought humanity to the point of self-annihilation.
And yes, this same process needs to happen with the world's war departments as well. Call me a dreamer if you want, but at least I'm not on the side of more killing.
Official secrecy is the ultimate weapon in any authoritarian regime. No illegitimate government can survive without it.
To be sure, private actors can attempt to retain secrets, but they simply do not have the resources to destroy the world in the way that even a small nation (let alone a nuclear superpower) does.
If this sounds impractical, take the New START treaty as a model. Let's have fully open teams of international inspectors that monitor the number of spies employed at the CIA HQ in Langley, VA, at the Ministry of State Security in Beijing, and at FSB HQ in Moscow. These agencies, and all others like them, should be progressively dismantled in lockstep, on a timetable set by treaty. The files they all keep should be made open to the public and used to teach future generations that secrecy itself is a weapon that repeatedly brought humanity to the point of self-annihilation.
And yes, this same process needs to happen with the world's war departments as well. Call me a dreamer if you want, but at least I'm not on the side of more killing.
I hate to discourage you from your protests, but I tossed an upvote for what seems like an honest reply.
Putting aside the small, but non-zero possibility of WWIII, I think having some emergency supplies on hand is always a wise thing.
There's always floods and other local emergencies.
Or a drunk driver hits a local power line that makes a mess of a lot of your life until it gets fixed, which doesn't necessarily happen right away. Having some extra supplies on hand (say candles and cooking fuel and some meals you can make) might make your life a lot more pleasant while you wait for a few days for that to be fixed.
You don't need to dig out a doomsday bunker and max out your credit cards today to fill it with rice and beans and canned goods, but buying a reasonable amount of extra supplies for an emergency is always a good idea.
And you should be prepping with food and other goods you'll eventually eat anyway, making it a very low-cost activity. Just rotate through older cans to ensure freshness.
There's always floods and other local emergencies.
Or a drunk driver hits a local power line that makes a mess of a lot of your life until it gets fixed, which doesn't necessarily happen right away. Having some extra supplies on hand (say candles and cooking fuel and some meals you can make) might make your life a lot more pleasant while you wait for a few days for that to be fixed.
You don't need to dig out a doomsday bunker and max out your credit cards today to fill it with rice and beans and canned goods, but buying a reasonable amount of extra supplies for an emergency is always a good idea.
And you should be prepping with food and other goods you'll eventually eat anyway, making it a very low-cost activity. Just rotate through older cans to ensure freshness.
COVID and the Ukrainian invasion made me realise that when shit hits the fan, there's not much you can do. Borders close, banks stop working, and people hoard the weirdest things.
It made me rethink how fast I could withdraw money and leave the country if things went south. Food won't run short, but everything that allows people and money to move will.
It made me rethink how fast I could withdraw money and leave the country if things went south. Food won't run short, but everything that allows people and money to move will.
> Food won't run short,
I hope not, but don't be so sure that this is an absolute fact of the modern world. Food being scarce is the norm in most of human history, including mass starvations within very recent, living memory.
I hope not, but don't be so sure that this is an absolute fact of the modern world. Food being scarce is the norm in most of human history, including mass starvations within very recent, living memory.
> I get the feeling from the news that the ruling class is driving us to war.
Fear sells, means nothing.
> Other than that, I don't know. What would folks who had to go through WW2 have told themselves if they could have sent a message back in time?
"ah shid..."
Fear sells, means nothing.
> Other than that, I don't know. What would folks who had to go through WW2 have told themselves if they could have sent a message back in time?
"ah shid..."
Yes. Old troglodyte prepper here. I don't prep for WWIII specifically, just anything from natural disasters to economic collapse to civil war. It's more of a hobby for me at this point and has already paid off a few times. Covid was the most recent event. I always find it interesting to see what comes next. A train carrying some surprise payload? A balloon with an EMP? Avian flu gain of function? A new fake activist group? A giant stay-puft marshmallow man? I can't mitigate all of them but I am stubborn enough to try.
I've been stockpiling hot cocoa for the marshmallow threat we live under.
I listen to this guy https://marfooglenews.com/ on youtube and twitter and read his "show notes" each time he posts them. Sometimes they are very interesting like:
https://www.audacy.com/1010wins/news/local/video-nyc-launche...
but sometimes they seem like he's grasping for content.
https://www.audacy.com/1010wins/news/local/video-nyc-launche...
but sometimes they seem like he's grasping for content.
Off-topic: I wonder what kind of information a website must collect so they decide to deny access from EU.
Like it happens with this audacy.com website
Like it happens with this audacy.com website
I'm not prepping at all. If a real "world war" breaks out with china I assume it will use bioweapons and other new shit and we'll all be done for fast (both sides).
I'm not, but if I wanted to prepare for any kind of a disaster, I'd learn the basics of medical profession, especially things they do in an emergency room, and most common types of surgery. I'd at least read about it.
Just relax and and enjoy the spectacle.
You/we can't do anything to change minds that think they're 'exceptional', and there are just too many of those to get rid of all of them. We'll merely all go down together.
Gaia needs to get rid of the last unsuccessful experiment called humanity. Here's hoping her next experiment turns out better than this one.
You/we can't do anything to change minds that think they're 'exceptional', and there are just too many of those to get rid of all of them. We'll merely all go down together.
Gaia needs to get rid of the last unsuccessful experiment called humanity. Here's hoping her next experiment turns out better than this one.
realistically, if you are not part of the elite, you cant do much other than moving to somewhere remote or neutral like NZ or Switzerland
My plan is to leave. Pack the bike in the van and drive off.
I don't actually plan beyond that. If previous events taught us one thing, it's that people get stuck within borders with their money frozen, and stockpiling food won't fix that.
I don't actually plan beyond that. If previous events taught us one thing, it's that people get stuck within borders with their money frozen, and stockpiling food won't fix that.
It must be so nice to be American - "preparing to WW3" means downloading stuff off the Internet for them and not having cash and passports ready to leave your home immediately when the enemy comes.
Well, that's what the question is asking. Maybe having cash and passports ready is the answer. Though if the enemy comes to America, I'm not sure how to go about leaving or where to go. Probably can't just book a flight.
The internet has the answers to just about any how-to question that's been asked. What foods can you forage in my region, how to trap animals, how to build a shelter, what's the weather in this area historically, how can I make this broken machine work, etc. "Downloading stuff off the internet" I think turns out to be pretty useful.
The internet has the answers to just about any how-to question that's been asked. What foods can you forage in my region, how to trap animals, how to build a shelter, what's the weather in this area historically, how can I make this broken machine work, etc. "Downloading stuff off the internet" I think turns out to be pretty useful.
> What foods can you forage in my region, how to trap animals, how to build a shelter, what's the weather in this area historically, how can I make this broken machine work, etc
I don't think these will be particularly useful, unless you end up in very particular circumstances. In general, if you end up in teritory where civilization has completely broken down, it's better to leave than to play Robinson Crusoe.
I don't think these will be particularly useful, unless you end up in very particular circumstances. In general, if you end up in teritory where civilization has completely broken down, it's better to leave than to play Robinson Crusoe.
Those are just a few examples. I can't imagine a scenario where you're still alive and having your questions answered isn't incredibly useful.
> it's better to leave than to play Robinson Crusoe.
Some of the questions you might be looking to answer could be around "how do I get out of here".
> it's better to leave than to play Robinson Crusoe.
Some of the questions you might be looking to answer could be around "how do I get out of here".
Sure, have a few days of supplies for any given emergency, but you are fooling yourself if you think you are going to develop any tenable plan to ride out the apocalypse. Adapt, improvise, pray. That's it.
Some people say all wars start after the debt bubbles especially in the financial sectors, If you see around the major countries the debt bubble is increasing and that was also the case before ww1 and ww2
What is important to know that the war is already out there. Its basically hybrid war. The country or group controlling the information is winning. Controlling information is a powerful tool because you can reach million of users and change narratives and people start talking creating hashtags and asking for protection. Budget kicks in money is spend weapons are bought etc etc. The country or group controlling information can suppress any rebels.
WW3 could be the last one as per various revelations The Battle of Armageddon
What is important to know that the war is already out there. Its basically hybrid war. The country or group controlling the information is winning. Controlling information is a powerful tool because you can reach million of users and change narratives and people start talking creating hashtags and asking for protection. Budget kicks in money is spend weapons are bought etc etc. The country or group controlling information can suppress any rebels.
WW3 could be the last one as per various revelations The Battle of Armageddon
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>trying to archive as much as I can
Yes, I've built a vast digital archive of movies and shows.
Absolutely and only because of my anticipation of a post-Internet apocalypse. *cough*
Yes, I've built a vast digital archive of movies and shows.
Absolutely and only because of my anticipation of a post-Internet apocalypse. *cough*
Useful resource https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/
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Beans, bullets, and bandaids.
Naw, I'm in a big city. I'm toast.
Move to a BS-free, safe country like Switzerland.
It's a matter of perspective. No-one knew they were in a 'world' war at the time. 50 years from now historians will probably look back at this as 'world war 3' and we're just living through it oblivious.
Pretty sure after the US finally entered the war it was pretty clear, by looking at a map, that it was a world War.
For me, I've leaned heavily on the internet (especially youtube) as a superpower when it comes to learning all kinds of new things. I'm considering trying to archive as much as I can (even without war, I'm skeptical that the same quantity and quality of info will be freely available forever).
Other than that, I don't know. What would folks who had to go through WW2 have told themselves if they could have sent a message back in time?