Omicron variant was 73% of U.S. covid cases last week(covid.cdc.gov)
covid.cdc.gov
Omicron variant was 73% of U.S. covid cases last week
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
377 comments
I am not a doctor, but the numbers for this varient seem encouraging.
Because hospitalizations, and deaths, trend later than infections, definitive conclusions are still some weeks away. However all the data coming out of South Africa is encouraging.
First, South Africa has about 25% vaccination coverage. With coverage skewing older.
Infections are up [1],but hospitalizations are flat, and so are deaths.
It's likely that the infection rate is grossly under-reported, especially among those without symptoms, as tests are (relatively) expensive. Annecdodally reasonably high percentages of asymptomatic infection is being detected in people being "randomly" tested (eg tested for travel and other-hospital reasons)
It is also crowding out delta, which is still present, but decreasing.
All in all travel bans may have been counter-productive (as well as ineffective) allowing time for more delta infections, and ultimately more deaths to take place.
It's still too early to be definitive, but this may indeed be the varient we all need - one which is super contagious, but also super weak, priming immune systems against earlier varient.
IF (and its a very big IF) this varient is non-fatal, then the faster and wider it spreads the better. We need to super-nova this thing, not a red dwarf.
[1] https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...
Because hospitalizations, and deaths, trend later than infections, definitive conclusions are still some weeks away. However all the data coming out of South Africa is encouraging.
First, South Africa has about 25% vaccination coverage. With coverage skewing older.
Infections are up [1],but hospitalizations are flat, and so are deaths.
It's likely that the infection rate is grossly under-reported, especially among those without symptoms, as tests are (relatively) expensive. Annecdodally reasonably high percentages of asymptomatic infection is being detected in people being "randomly" tested (eg tested for travel and other-hospital reasons)
It is also crowding out delta, which is still present, but decreasing.
All in all travel bans may have been counter-productive (as well as ineffective) allowing time for more delta infections, and ultimately more deaths to take place.
It's still too early to be definitive, but this may indeed be the varient we all need - one which is super contagious, but also super weak, priming immune systems against earlier varient.
IF (and its a very big IF) this varient is non-fatal, then the faster and wider it spreads the better. We need to super-nova this thing, not a red dwarf.
[1] https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...
As everyone keeps posting about SA and saying omicron is relatively harmless, here’s the only scientific study I’ve found on the topic, in the BMJ:
“After adjusting for vaccination status, the risk of hospital admission for newly diagnosed adults is 29% lower than in the first wave,”
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3104
With a doubling time of two days, this reduction in the probability of hospitalisation seems irrelevant in preventing the overwhelming of health systems. As others have pointed out, experts on Twitter seem very very worried and I’m more inclined to go with them (and the exponential function) than with my antivaxxer friend’s posts on Facebook.
Here in the U.K. it already looks to me like London’s hospitals are going to be overwhelmed; I don’t understand why everyone isn’t panicking and we’re not already in a lockdown.
“After adjusting for vaccination status, the risk of hospital admission for newly diagnosed adults is 29% lower than in the first wave,”
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3104
With a doubling time of two days, this reduction in the probability of hospitalisation seems irrelevant in preventing the overwhelming of health systems. As others have pointed out, experts on Twitter seem very very worried and I’m more inclined to go with them (and the exponential function) than with my antivaxxer friend’s posts on Facebook.
Here in the U.K. it already looks to me like London’s hospitals are going to be overwhelmed; I don’t understand why everyone isn’t panicking and we’re not already in a lockdown.
This is with the "Nowcast" projections on. You can disable them in the page, and this shows a measured 0.7% of cases (less than one percent) as Omicron. That's some aggressive projection model...
Those are some really wide 95% confidence intervals. As it is right now:
Delta 26.6%, 95% CI: 5.1%-65.8%
Omicron 73.2%, 95% CI: 34.0%-94.9%
Others 0.1%, 95% CI: 0.0-0.4%
London is right after South Africa at the vanguard of Omicron. It seems it's hospitalisation rates are only now starting to emerge.
https://i.redd.it/92wwp9jp8q681.png
https://i.redd.it/92wwp9jp8q681.png
The main question is not the death or even hospitalization, but rather if you get long covid.
I am mostly concerned about the mutations coming out of the Omicron contagion than the Omicron variant itself.
Since I don't see anyone else mentioning it here, I thought I'd call out Zvi.
With all the constant noise around covid coverage, it's been such a huge relief that Zvi has been able to provide the excellent summaries that he does at least once a week. It's nearly impossible for every individual to spend enough time to parse through the deluge of information and parse the signal from the noise.
With all the constant noise around covid coverage, it's been such a huge relief that Zvi has been able to provide the excellent summaries that he does at least once a week. It's nearly impossible for every individual to spend enough time to parse through the deluge of information and parse the signal from the noise.
So at this point what percent of people testing positive are actually tracked? It’s still a giant pain to get a covid test and requires at least one day lead time to get scheduled in at the pharmacy. It’s so much easier to pop in to that same pharmacy and get a rapid test for $10 and do it at home.
The news articles stating this number are refering to data for the week ending the 11th. I can't get that data through the link, only the week ending the 4th of December with a low estimate. iOS, Sweden. Anyone else having that issue?
A lot of speculation.
Is there a way to know the average hospital duration in SA for people without a previous infection?
I know the current data in SA says it went from 8,5 days to 2,5 days.
The variable currently, if the data can be cross-referenced to other countries, is the high infection rate of delta in SA.
Excluding previously infected from hospital stay would create an educated guess in my eyes. If it stays <3,5 days for example, that would seem like good news.
Is there a way to know the average hospital duration in SA for people without a previous infection?
I know the current data in SA says it went from 8,5 days to 2,5 days.
The variable currently, if the data can be cross-referenced to other countries, is the high infection rate of delta in SA.
Excluding previously infected from hospital stay would create an educated guess in my eyes. If it stays <3,5 days for example, that would seem like good news.
And yet the damaging travel ban against Southern Africa remains in place, even against recommendations by key US scientists...
Korea is already seeing a significant uptick (doubling week on week) in imported Covid cases, mostly from the US.
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These are projections. Click on "Nowcast Off" and it will only show actuals, which is a completely different picture (very little Omicron percentage).
google "new york coronavirus" and look at the massive past 10 day spike in the new cases chart. This isn't going to end well.
Wait ... how come when you turn the "Nowcast prediction model" into OFF then there are zero Omicron cases in the US?
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Edit: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/18/politics/white-house-omicron-...
> Some of Biden's advisers are encouraging the administration to begin discussing publicly how to live alongside a virus that shows no signs of disappearing ... Steering public attention away from the total number of infections and toward serious cases only -- as some Biden advisers have encouraged -- could prove a challenge after nearly two years of intense focus on the pandemic's every up and down.
Edit2: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29633899
> The CDC’s Nowcast algorithm has some kind of bug, and the prevalence of Omicron nationwide wasn’t really 73% in the week ending December 18. Take that to the bank ... You will see this walked back. The CDC will explain what happened. The Twitter experts will have to walk back their initial tweets. The press will have to publish a new round of articles clarifying their prior wave of headlines. It might happen tomorrow, later this week, or some time next week, but it will happen. This result won’t stand.