We actually have a lot of data on Ozempic and GLP-1s generally, going back to the first GLP-1 FDA approval in 2005:
• Exenatide - FDA approved in 2005
• Liraglutide / Saxenda - FDA approved in 2010
• Dulaglutide / Trulicity - FDA approved in 2014
• Semaglutide / Ozempic/Wegovy - FDA approved in 2017
• Tirzepatide / Mounjaro - FDA approved in 2022
Ozempic / Semaglutide was FDA approved in 2017, but clinical trials started in 2008. That was 16 years ago. Obviously it's always possible there are even longer term side effects we're unaware of, but generally if this class of drug caused large scale problems for kidneys, liver, etc, we'd likely know by now.
Bc none of the features are actually live yet. We keep hearing about what will be released and demos - but HN is mainly do-ers. Their launches would have 100x the impact if people could see and play with it in real time right after the announcement.
Last I heard they have $1B in cash on hand and are doing roughly $3B/year in revenue. Musk has reportedly gotten their annual expenses down to $3B with another $1.5B in annual debt servicing costs.
My guess is that they don’t want to cover a $1,000/month drug to save costs that you may not incur for many years / when you’re no longer insured by them.
It only works if all the companies agree to cover it.
100% this. A lot of people on Mounjaro report that one of the benefits is that their internal chatter about food / cravings is silenced. For the first time, when they get hungry they’re able to stop and consider whether they should eat a salad, reduce portion size, etc.
Same - Mounjaro / Tirzeparide is nothing short of life changing.
A question I often get is "how effective is it?"
The SURMOUNT-1 study released in April 2022 showed 22.5% average reduction in weight for people on the highest dose of Mounjaro. For a 250 lbs person who should weigh 150 lbs (so 100 lbs of extra weight), this would result in them losing 56 lbs or 56% of their excess weight.
For context, bariatric surgery has the following success:
- Gastric Band: 35% - 45% of excess weight lost
- Gastric Sleeve: 60% - 75% of excess weight lost
The fact that a once a week injection is having results similar to bariatric surgery is insane, and this is only the early innings of this shift. Lilly has another drug in the works (will likely be released in late 2025) that is reporting better results than Mounjaro.
It's partially because we should always act with a degree of caution and skepticism when the government can sentence people to die for betraying the government.
With a country like modern day Germany it seems easier to determine who the "good" vs "bad" guys are. But take the current situation in Iran as a counter example - there I think we'd all agree that it's decidedly less obvious that the government should have the ability to kill people who disagree.
That's pretty substantial. Obviously no one knows what Phase 3 will show, but cynicism seems unwarranted at this point.
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-detail...