PowerfulWizard · HackerTrans

PowerfulWizard

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w zeszłym miesiącudiscuss

I haven't heard of that being a problem for Starlink, whatever they've done there seems to be working. The Orbital AI would be at a higher orbit but still within LEO which reduces the radiation. I wonder if occasional bit flips even matter for typical AI calculations. Quantization seems to suggest a lot of the lower bits aren't all that important. Either way SpaceX has already had success building systems with commercial-off-the-shelf products in space.

To me the biggest problem of the system is the dependence on launch cost. The more launch cost can be lowered the more viable the system is and the more options there are for solving every problem. But IMO the reason Musk is building this system is to lower launch cost. He needs a project that can fund a high volume of launches and create economies of scale to lower launch cost, the way that Starlink did for Falcon 9.

w zeszłym miesiącudiscuss

I think it's possible, I'm not familiar with what's really been tried but I see that there are some publications on it, for example there's an ESA project under way: https://connectivity.esa.int/archives/projects/heat-pump-cen...

w zeszłym miesiącudiscuss

Musk is deliberately creating a business that needs high volume low cost launch services because in order to get low cost launch high volume is needed, and in order to get high volume a customer is needed. In the same way that Starlink launches were used to create the Falcon 9 economies of scale, the orbital AI will be used to create the Starship economies of scale. He also wants to bet the whole company on this which creates pressure to deliver and not just coast on what they've already accomplished. There are a bunch of related high risk bets but they ultimately connect back to bringing Mars within reach with frequent low cost launch capability.

w zeszłym miesiącudiscuss

To remove heat by radiation there's a big benefit to running the GPUs hotter as the radiation will be proportional to the fourth power of temperature. This resource is using 85 deg C versus 60 deg C for OP which will improve cooling performance.

If Nvidia/SpaceX can make the chips run at a higher temperature that would help a lot although I assume it would have already been done if it were possible. Another option is to add a heat pump to raise radiator temperature if the smaller radiator mass can pay for the heat pump mass.

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

On judging vs. making, also someone has to take time away from development to do code review. If the code being reviewed is written by someone who is involved and interested then at least there's a benefit to training and consensus building in discussing the code and the project in the review phase. The time and energy of developers who are qualified to review is quite possibly the bottleneck on development speed too so wasting review time will slow down development.

For AI generated code if previous PRs aren't loaded into context then there's no lasting benefit from the time taken to review and it's blank slate each time. I think ultimately it can be solved with workflow changes (i.e. AI written code should be attributed to the AI in VCS, the full trace and manual edits should be visible for review, all human input prompts to the AI should be browsable during review without having scroll 10k lines of AI reasoning.)

2 lata temudiscuss

I don't know what I want exactly but I'm thinking along the lines that SQL is already doing a lot so it would make the most sense to start with a database interface and augment from there, to try to build a system to handle all the common forms of durable storage used by applications.

The type of situation I'm thinking about is for example storing a blob in S3, storing metadata and a reference to the blob's path in a database row, sending a message into a queue to trigger some async processing, and updating a cache. It would be nice to be able to do this through a single API or service, and it would be really nice to do all this within some type of transaction abstraction that would allow all operations to pass or fail collectively, really really nice if the whole thing could be pay-as-you and scale horizontally-ish on shared infrastructure without managing nodes or slots or whatever.

I'm not a Postgres user so I don't know how far you can get currently and I should probably look into it in detail. Coordinating blob/ject storage, database, and pubsub operations is a pain point for me presently. I think that overall system design is going to prevent a database-type system from being a good idea for blob storage but I would still like to see someone try to put three systems in a trenchcoat and try to make it work behind one interface.

2 lata temudiscuss

Very interesting. My dream is to have something like this, a KV-store, a blob store, and pubsub all behind the same interface.

2 lata temudiscuss

This looks useful, I usually use guestfish to put files into the image before flashing but this could be a lot more flexible.

2 lata temudiscuss

Here's what I use (as a bookmark):

    data:text/html,<body contenteditable style="line-height:1.5;font-size:20px;">

No save function obviously but this lets me open a new tab and dump some text.

2 lata temudiscuss

It's true that Relativity Space Terran-R, Rocket Lab Neutron, and Blue Origin New Glenn are under development and are planning first stage re-use although none have flown. And also Stoke Space is developing a 2nd stage re-use solution which SpaceX hasn't solved yet. I think another American company could have a Falcon 9 competitor within 5 years if they really move fast. But they haven't yet reached the stage that SpaceX reached 10 years ago.

2 lata temudiscuss

SpaceX’s propulsive recovery testing began over ten years ago, meaning a development campaign starting today would be ten years behind SpaceX if they can progress at the same speed. It seems crazy to me that essentially no one is even trying to follow the path demonstrated by SpaceX.

3 lata temudiscuss

I think above grabbed Gross Profit rather than Total Revenue, this page shows a 1.1% profit margin: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KR/key-statistics?p=KR

4 lata temudiscuss

Thanks I was looking for this.

4 lata temudiscuss

One solution is to have the key on paper in a safe, and then let the lawyer know the key is in the safe. If you die they can drill the safe. The nature of the private key makes digital solutions possible, but they aren't necessary. It doesn't have to be handled differently from any highly valuable small object.

5 lat temudiscuss

There must be a process for unpaid bills, whatever that process is they could just enact it at the user's threshold instead of their own threshold. Ideally a soft limit that would disable networking and resource creation and then later a hard limit where your account is wiped out.

Because of the potential overhang before the billing system catches up I think it would be appropriate to lower the service quotas on this type of account. I'm not sure if the customer can lower their own quotas which would be an alternate cost control strategy but a beginner wouldn't know to think of that anyway. The solution with billing alerts is good at a company level but too much for a beginner in my opinion.

I know unexpected costs were a concern for me when I started using AWS as a student in 2008 and it is still a concern for people in the same situation, just with so much more complexity on top of it all. It will be a tiny fragment of their revenue but as time goes on a higher and higher level of expertise is required to get started, even though you can accomplish a lot with just the free tier. The amount of progress they've made on this issue in the last 13 years is just not impressive.

5 lat temudiscuss

One thing that would make a difference on small accounts is the ability to do prepaid billing only. That way you define your budget in advance and they enforce it. The problem with the current billing is that people who are new to the system have no hope of understanding what is going on and they have to accept the open-ended nature of the billing system to learn.

5 lat temudiscuss

For those of us who are helplessly impatient, run this in console:

    document.querySelectorAll(".countdown-calendar__door").forEach(e => e.classList.add("will-open"))

5 lat temudiscuss

Yes, in the air I'm expecting a very different scenario than on land. No pedestrians just an element of collision avoidance for birds, all vehicles legally required to be broadcasting their position to an automated air traffic control, probably maintaining 100 meters between vehicles versus road traffic being 1 meter from oncoming. In the air it would be almost a pre-planned route with a 50 meter collision avoidance corridor. Plus an emergency landing site selection process, potentially the ability to land on water or an emergency parachute.

Part of the reason I found the paper I linked to be persuasive is that they predict the EVTOL aircraft only needing 2-3x the total energy of an EV. The energy cost in dollars could be less than gas for an ICE vehicle making the same trip. There are very light aircraft with 100HP engines, I'm picturing something light and birdlike.

5 lat temudiscuss

I'm optimistic about electrical. Here is a high level analysis of power and energy density required for some electric vertical takeoff aircraft, compared to some existing batteries: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/45/e2111164118 (h.t. kittyhawkcorp twitter). The necessary power density is achieved, the energy density needs to improve by about 2x for these vehicles to attain their intended range.

The article also compares the range and energy efficiency to electric and ICE vehicles, accounting for the distance reduction by flying in a straight line versus driving on the road. If I recall it doesn't apply any extra value for time savings. The overall energy used in flying could be as little as 2-3x the energy used driving a terrestrial electric vehicle. Combine that with vertical takeoff and no traffic and we're looking at something pretty compelling.

And how much does it really need to cost compared for example to a Tesla? The weight will be more optimized and the safety regulations I assume are much sterner. The technical complexity seems similar but the volume will be much lower. I don't think it really works if you need a pilot's license so full autonomy is probably also a prerequisite for an everyday application.

I think EVTOL will still be embryonic in 2 years, but impressive in 5 years.

5 lat temudiscuss

I've enjoyed learning Rust and there is is a lot I like about it, I've just been doing leetcode problems with it though and not working on large projects. In my view, the biggest advantages and steps forward with Rust the language are:

1. Memory management

2. Typing

I think your listed languages all have Garbage Collection? It will probably take quite a bit of mental effort to get comfortable with memory management in Rust but it is a valuable topic if you want to understand performance and language runtimes.