Scientists warn of sperm count crisis(richarddawkins.net)
richarddawkins.net
Scientists warn of sperm count crisis
http://richarddawkins.net/news_articles/2012/12/5/scientists-warn-of-sperm-count-crisis
10 comments
Those revisions have actually enabled the problem to stay hidden longer; they've reduced the sperm count threshold at which men are considered "normal". You may be referring to technical issues, such as distinguishing live from dead sperm, or measuring motility---but WHO numbers don't reflect that.
Original article: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-warn-of...
Children of Men here we come!
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0206634/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0206634/
That was one of the most profound movies I ever watched, I also highly recommend it. It is moving, beautiful, and makes you rethink everything we take for granted.
And the single take scenes were brilliant.
I was thinking about that movie when reading the article :)
Male energy is in crisis. In the modern world boys aren't allowed to be boys to make sure they will become men grown tame. Boys are grown by women—and these days also men who have adopted the women's way of growing kids. We think that male energy is aggressive and offensive, and it must be suppressed and tainted, while simultaneously we have lost our icons of what real manhood entails. We don't have rites of manhood like indigenous people had: the boys were cut off their mothers and their mothers let go of the boys, they started living with men, and the rites eventually transformed a boy into a man. THis doesn't happen anymore. And if you, instead, grow a boy to a man the woman way, what you get is not a man but an overly feminine male who is at loss with his manhood and who has two balls that are barely working.
This is such a stupid argument that I don't know where to begin. Do you seriously think performing male rites of passage will somehow increase sperm count? You come off as an old curmudgeon that resents advances in women's rights and the lgbt movement and sees this as some sort of threat to old practices which were somehow more masculine in your mind.
My two kickass adult sons would find this paragraph laughable.
-- Their Mom
Though, in all fairness, I am kind of a ballbusting bitch and did not raise my sons "normally". My ex was career military, so I could afford to be a ballbusting bitch since my anachronistic family of origin and the federal government both had my back. But I imagine that a) you wouldn't be up for a meaty discussion of that sort and b) hn is probably not the place to have it.
-- Their Mom
Though, in all fairness, I am kind of a ballbusting bitch and did not raise my sons "normally". My ex was career military, so I could afford to be a ballbusting bitch since my anachronistic family of origin and the federal government both had my back. But I imagine that a) you wouldn't be up for a meaty discussion of that sort and b) hn is probably not the place to have it.
The parent thread was probably trolling, or not aware of some details about these rituals of passage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sambia_people)
Gender role development is a touchy but very important subject (although i m not sure it's related to sperm count). Related: http://www.theatlantic.com/sexes/archive/2012/12/you-can-giv...
Gender role development is a touchy but very important subject (although i m not sure it's related to sperm count). Related: http://www.theatlantic.com/sexes/archive/2012/12/you-can-giv...
I have been called a troll (or treated like one). I am not. For that and other reasons, I am very reluctant to hang that on this person. HN is an actively hostile environment for some topics. Regardless, most people do not want to have a real serious discussion about a touchy topic like this, under any circumstance. That is the only piece I really take issue with. As someone who believes in a lot of things that would not be respected here, I would happily defend the OP's right to free speech and to have a different mental model. The problem I have is that they are highly unlikely to be willing to engage in serious discussion, therefore they probably should have not bothered to post it here.
Comments like yours are exactly why I posted the original article. It's really nice to hear from someone at HN who sees beyond the controversy caused by a totally different mental model, as you put it. I'm surprised I wasn't downmodded more aggressively.
I wouldn't have answered to this thread unless you had written these two comments of yours: HN certainly isn't the place for serious discussion about such topics and while I don't necessarily like it that way, that's just the way it is. But I sometimes keep fishing for different responses.
Now, anything related to gender, sex, gender roles, and the masculine and feminine parts of a person's psyche and spirit seems to be a touchy subject: add in a few feminist and antifeminist preconceptions—or just any politically correct one—to the mix and what you have is the mother of all can of worms.
It's virtually impossible to discuss those in a large group unless there's a predefined consensus that limits what can be said. All we probably can agree with together is that there's a difference between the masculine and feminine, but there are indefinite ways of how that could unfold into a discussion. Yet it's a very fundamental dynamic of life that you're bound to deal with one way or another, regardless of if you're a man or a woman.
Further, there are so many angles into this gender topic that it's hard if not impossible to establish a definitive model of how to present my thoughts on such a topic myself. And that doesn't fly well at HN: generally people who are thinking more aloud than asserting their final conclusions don't fare well on internet forums.
So, a fruitful conversation of the subject is probably only possible with at most two people who trust each other enough so that they're able to just reflect the other person's thoughts instead of trying to argue them out.
I know there are tens of thousands of different people on HN and most do have beliefs and attitudes that don't fit in the canned scientific-consensus impression most people present on HN.
There is a wealth of intelligent people here and I sometimes wonder what they think of things that can't be said here.
I wouldn't have answered to this thread unless you had written these two comments of yours: HN certainly isn't the place for serious discussion about such topics and while I don't necessarily like it that way, that's just the way it is. But I sometimes keep fishing for different responses.
Now, anything related to gender, sex, gender roles, and the masculine and feminine parts of a person's psyche and spirit seems to be a touchy subject: add in a few feminist and antifeminist preconceptions—or just any politically correct one—to the mix and what you have is the mother of all can of worms.
It's virtually impossible to discuss those in a large group unless there's a predefined consensus that limits what can be said. All we probably can agree with together is that there's a difference between the masculine and feminine, but there are indefinite ways of how that could unfold into a discussion. Yet it's a very fundamental dynamic of life that you're bound to deal with one way or another, regardless of if you're a man or a woman.
Further, there are so many angles into this gender topic that it's hard if not impossible to establish a definitive model of how to present my thoughts on such a topic myself. And that doesn't fly well at HN: generally people who are thinking more aloud than asserting their final conclusions don't fare well on internet forums.
So, a fruitful conversation of the subject is probably only possible with at most two people who trust each other enough so that they're able to just reflect the other person's thoughts instead of trying to argue them out.
I know there are tens of thousands of different people on HN and most do have beliefs and attitudes that don't fit in the canned scientific-consensus impression most people present on HN.
There is a wealth of intelligent people here and I sometimes wonder what they think of things that can't be said here.
One problem with your original remark is that it is openly hostile to women while simultaneously failing to conform to the "scientific" model popular here. You managed to alienate pretty much everyone in one stroke.
If you posit a male-female dynamic, they must be complementary. If male energy is in crisis, so is female. The one requires the other to balance. I was a homemaker for many years. That is a dying role in modern America. But it is the logical and practical complement to the traditional masculine role of going out and conquering the world. It is routinely disrespected by the modern world. You decry what is being done to male energy while actively participating in the modern trend of pissing on the traditional maternal role.
It is no wonder you perceive a crisis. You are shooting yourself in the foot on this one.
Best of luck with sorting out whatever is on your mind.
If you posit a male-female dynamic, they must be complementary. If male energy is in crisis, so is female. The one requires the other to balance. I was a homemaker for many years. That is a dying role in modern America. But it is the logical and practical complement to the traditional masculine role of going out and conquering the world. It is routinely disrespected by the modern world. You decry what is being done to male energy while actively participating in the modern trend of pissing on the traditional maternal role.
It is no wonder you perceive a crisis. You are shooting yourself in the foot on this one.
Best of luck with sorting out whatever is on your mind.
It's not hostile to women unless you choose to interpret it in that light. I simply brought up that subjecting boys to feminine nursing for too long tends to make it more difficult for them to find the man within themselves later. I could have said the same about girls grown in a very male environment and managed to be hostile to men too :)
And of course I decry what has happened to male energy in such a short comment. I wrote about male energy because I didn't want to start by writing pages and pages on a subject like this. (See, still trying to keep it short.)
By the way, you are aware that traditional patriarchy is a dying scheme in the modern world as well and that traditional paternal role has been pissed on for a long time, too, aren't you? It all started in the 50's/60's and female energy is in crisis too, like you said!
For example, in the contemporary world, women in the worklife wear a highly masculine attitude because the current way of doing business is regrettably masculine only. Women in office jobs even dress like men. Now, when a woman comes home after work it will take a while until she can be in touch with her feminine side again. If she has a so-called modern husband who has already picked up the kids from school, looked after them while making dinner for everyone (these are traditional, parallel, stereotypical feminine activities) then she might have a hard time a) finding her feminine side to get in touch with her feelings and b) finding the masculine side in her husband so that she can relax in the trust the masculine provides for her, and just talk her feeling out to get rid of her working day stress.
And of course I decry what has happened to male energy in such a short comment. I wrote about male energy because I didn't want to start by writing pages and pages on a subject like this. (See, still trying to keep it short.)
By the way, you are aware that traditional patriarchy is a dying scheme in the modern world as well and that traditional paternal role has been pissed on for a long time, too, aren't you? It all started in the 50's/60's and female energy is in crisis too, like you said!
For example, in the contemporary world, women in the worklife wear a highly masculine attitude because the current way of doing business is regrettably masculine only. Women in office jobs even dress like men. Now, when a woman comes home after work it will take a while until she can be in touch with her feminine side again. If she has a so-called modern husband who has already picked up the kids from school, looked after them while making dinner for everyone (these are traditional, parallel, stereotypical feminine activities) then she might have a hard time a) finding her feminine side to get in touch with her feelings and b) finding the masculine side in her husband so that she can relax in the trust the masculine provides for her, and just talk her feeling out to get rid of her working day stress.
I am a woman and I am sympathetic, but it sounded hostile to me. You are now dismissing that and blaming me instead of simply trying to clarify when I am the only person here taking you at all seriously. And given that I am having my head handed to me elsewhere on hn, I am not in a good frame of mind to bend over backwards to give you a receptive audience. If you would like to try again, I would be happy to give you a do-over. But, no, I am not going to make a serious attempt to engage this reply.
Again, best of luck with whatever is on your mind.
Again, best of luck with whatever is on your mind.
Well, thanks for telling me what bothered you. I think I was just surprised to see the question of hostility being brought up at all. Certainly my words can be read in as many ways as there are readers, thus in my head that question was sort of off-topic so I think I didn't pay attention to how important it was to you and possibly others.
I am not actively or passively hostile to women, at least to any such extent that I can recognize myself or that can be recognized by my friends, so the whole matter simply hasn't been on my radar at all.
I am not actively or passively hostile to women, at least to any such extent that I can recognize myself or that can be recognized by my friends, so the whole matter simply hasn't been on my radar at all.
HN can be pretty mysogynistic. (I have ben told other women have left because they find it unpalatable and I know that a lot of women downplay or hide their gender on HN because it is seen as a problem.) So, the environment here tends to bias perception. If you want support, you will need to make extra effort to avoid even an appearance of attacking the roles of women while talking about your concerns about the roles of men. Women are widely regarded to be second class citizens, something you no doubt know. The language you are using is more likely to be acceptable to women or other more "feminine"/not "hard science" types. It will not go over well with most members here. Not being careful of how your remarks will be perceived by the minority that might take you seriously practically guarantees you will not be anything but attacked.
I know from firsthand experience. You can check my remarks for how I am going down in flames elsewhere on HN today. Unfortunately, many years of history have painted me into a corner that, in practice, I don't know the way out of dven though in theory I know the general principles which should work.
I hope you find a path forward in discussing gender issues with people, whether here or elsewhere. I have long found such topics fascinating. But, yes, they are super touchy topics.
I know from firsthand experience. You can check my remarks for how I am going down in flames elsewhere on HN today. Unfortunately, many years of history have painted me into a corner that, in practice, I don't know the way out of dven though in theory I know the general principles which should work.
I hope you find a path forward in discussing gender issues with people, whether here or elsewhere. I have long found such topics fascinating. But, yes, they are super touchy topics.
> THis doesn't happen anymore. And if you, instead, grow a boy to a man the woman way, what you get is not a man but an overly feminine male who is at loss with his manhood and who has two balls that are barely working.
This reasoning seems a bit specious.
This reasoning seems a bit specious.
Oh, Lord. HN is turning into Reddit more and more by the minute.
If your account is less than a year old, please don't submit comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. (It's a common semi-noob illusion.)
http://ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
http://ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
That's sort of a dated rule. I've been here even longer than my account suggests, and the quality has most certainly degraded - both from comments like OP's, and from people defending it under the umbrella of free speech (kind of an absurd stance given every community enforces quality standards.)
PG himself has acknowledged the degrading quality. Thankfully some work has been done to curb this trend, but it does seem somewhat unavoidable as a community grows.
PG himself has acknowledged the degrading quality. Thankfully some work has been done to curb this trend, but it does seem somewhat unavoidable as a community grows.
PG himself not only acknowledges that quality has declined but also that he has no idea how to reverse it. I don't know if I can effect change here, but I do know how it is done and I have done it elsewhere. Raising the bar on treating other members with respect and tolerating a diversity of viewpoints is part of how that is done.
You are, of course, free to make fun of me while bemoaning the decline in quality. I am free to think you are clearly clueless if you cannot see a connection between the two things.
You are, of course, free to make fun of me while bemoaning the decline in quality. I am free to think you are clearly clueless if you cannot see a connection between the two things.
You know what my favorite rite of manhood was? Taking a sharp rock and slicing the bottom of your penis. You should try it.
Source: Joseph Campbell.
Source: Joseph Campbell.
"Male energy is in crisis"
Yes, and thank goodness strict gender roles are considered arbitrary and laughable if they weren't so damaging.
Yes, and thank goodness strict gender roles are considered arbitrary and laughable if they weren't so damaging.
There is a real good german/french documentary on this subject named 'Men in danger':
"A program which looks at some of the factors which may explain why sperm production in males has dropped 50% in 50 years, and explores an important question currently facing scientists; could chemical molecules in our environment be affecting our ability to reproduce? Aside from the huge drop in the amount of sperm production over the last five decades, scientists have also recorded a dramatic rise in the number of testicular cancers and a disturbing increase in the number of congenital malformations in male reproductive organs - two trends echoed in wildlife studies. This suggests the cause is environmental and not genetic. For Niels Skakkebaek, Danish doctor and researcher, the male reproductive and infertility problems we are currently facing are ‘as important as global warming.' (From France, in English) (Science) M CC WS"
Here is at least an english trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQfduzOmctI
And a review: http://healthhighway.blogspot.de/2008/03/men-in-danger-sbs-d...
Germans: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFBbbItpdc8
"A program which looks at some of the factors which may explain why sperm production in males has dropped 50% in 50 years, and explores an important question currently facing scientists; could chemical molecules in our environment be affecting our ability to reproduce? Aside from the huge drop in the amount of sperm production over the last five decades, scientists have also recorded a dramatic rise in the number of testicular cancers and a disturbing increase in the number of congenital malformations in male reproductive organs - two trends echoed in wildlife studies. This suggests the cause is environmental and not genetic. For Niels Skakkebaek, Danish doctor and researcher, the male reproductive and infertility problems we are currently facing are ‘as important as global warming.' (From France, in English) (Science) M CC WS"
Here is at least an english trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQfduzOmctI
And a review: http://healthhighway.blogspot.de/2008/03/men-in-danger-sbs-d...
Germans: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFBbbItpdc8
What? This is being described as a "crisis"? It's the best news I've heard all year. We should celebrate!
The world's population is completely out of control, all estimates of future environmental catastrophe turn out to be overly optimistic, we're drifting into a state of perpetual war because of population pressures, and someone laments a decline in sperm count without the slightest grasp of how funny that is?
Read and weep, children:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overpopulation
The world's population is completely out of control, all estimates of future environmental catastrophe turn out to be overly optimistic, we're drifting into a state of perpetual war because of population pressures, and someone laments a decline in sperm count without the slightest grasp of how funny that is?
Read and weep, children:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overpopulation
Wow, that Wikipedia article is awful, and a fantastic demonstration of how hobbyhorse subjects on Wikipedia tend to get filled with crap.
Contra that shitty graph at the top of the article, population diverged from the historical trend of exponential growth in the 1950s. Worldwide birth rates have peaked. The largest cohort of babies the world has ever seen was in the 80s. The population is now growing solely due to increased lifespans.
Much to the disappointment of everyone waiting gleefully for mankind to suffer for its many sins, the Malthusian crisis has not happened, and will not ever happen.
Contra that shitty graph at the top of the article, population diverged from the historical trend of exponential growth in the 1950s. Worldwide birth rates have peaked. The largest cohort of babies the world has ever seen was in the 80s. The population is now growing solely due to increased lifespans.
Much to the disappointment of everyone waiting gleefully for mankind to suffer for its many sins, the Malthusian crisis has not happened, and will not ever happen.
If Malthus' warning was heeded, the Irish Famine that occurred less than ten years after his death may have been avoided. Ireland's population of 8 million, to Britain's 14 million, dropped by estimates of 25% through disease, emigration and starvation. This was on the doorstep of the dominant British Empire. Saying the Malthusian crisis will not ever happen is hubris.
The Irish Famine was caused by a mixture of a routine crop failure and awful policies both leading up to and during the blight. Ireland's population was not extraordinarily large compared to its production capacity at the time.
Crop failures haven't stopped happening, populations have risen quite a bit since the 19th century, but mass starvation still happens or doesn't happen entirely due to policy not a literal shortage of food.
Crop failures haven't stopped happening, populations have risen quite a bit since the 19th century, but mass starvation still happens or doesn't happen entirely due to policy not a literal shortage of food.
A man made Malthusian crisis is still a Malthusian crisis, crop failure and improper agricultural policy have a bearing on how big a population can subsist.
1% of the world's then population passed away in the Irish famine. Ireland's population is now 5 million and Britain's around 60. Ireland's population was extraordinarily large compared to the subsistence farmer's yields in 1845. Here's a chart:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IrelandEuropePopulation17...
Ireland may have been a net exporter of food during the famine, but I would hope you agree that policy can bring about a very literal shortage of food.
1% of the world's then population passed away in the Irish famine. Ireland's population is now 5 million and Britain's around 60. Ireland's population was extraordinarily large compared to the subsistence farmer's yields in 1845. Here's a chart:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IrelandEuropePopulation17...
Ireland may have been a net exporter of food during the famine, but I would hope you agree that policy can bring about a very literal shortage of food.
Massive subsistence farming in Ireland was not caused by the size of the population. If there were half as many people in Ireland in 1945, there would not be twice as much food to go around. The half-sized population would still have been packed into as little land as they could survive on. A crop failure would still mean starvation.
There was no surplus to fall back on, not because the population was so large that it overwhelmed reserves, but because the surplus wealth of Ireland was being systematically extracted so no such reserves could be built.
There was no surplus to fall back on, not because the population was so large that it overwhelmed reserves, but because the surplus wealth of Ireland was being systematically extracted so no such reserves could be built.
Correction to my earlier comment: it was 0.1% of the world's then population, not 1%.
The size of the population in Ireland was enabled by subsistence farming of the potato. The powers that were, did not have a control on the number of children per family. The spurt in population was risky and had Malthus' projections been heeded, population based checks on resource limits working as a preventive measure would have limited population growth rather than the death rate doing so.
Plots of land were handed down by subdivision among the male children in a family[0]. The population increased, but the land available to them remained the same.
Crop loss was estimated at one third to one half [1].
So to refute your point, if there was a smaller population, the land occupied by the total population would arguably have remained the same, and one third to one half of a crop loss could have been sustained without starvation and famine.
I am still convinced that it was a real life Malthusian crisis, aided and abetted by systematic exploitation. I do not think it's a stretch to say exploitation has not been eradicated. It's a certainty that children are still brought in to the world without a guarantee that they can be provided for.
We can argue for resource redistribution to prevent crises arising, however Malthusian 'prophecy' is predictive, and the Irish Famine was predictable without resource redistribution. I would argue we have already had a Malthusian crisis. I would further argue it's hubris to say that another is impossible.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_famine#Tenants.2C_subdiv... This paragraph only alludes to the process of subdivision, with only a small amount of research, you will see that it resulted in population exceeding the carrying capacity of the land they occupied in 1845. "Following the famine, reforms were implemented making it illegal to further divide land holdings."
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_famine#Blight_in_Ireland (look for "Crop loss in 1845")
The size of the population in Ireland was enabled by subsistence farming of the potato. The powers that were, did not have a control on the number of children per family. The spurt in population was risky and had Malthus' projections been heeded, population based checks on resource limits working as a preventive measure would have limited population growth rather than the death rate doing so.
Plots of land were handed down by subdivision among the male children in a family[0]. The population increased, but the land available to them remained the same.
Crop loss was estimated at one third to one half [1].
So to refute your point, if there was a smaller population, the land occupied by the total population would arguably have remained the same, and one third to one half of a crop loss could have been sustained without starvation and famine.
I am still convinced that it was a real life Malthusian crisis, aided and abetted by systematic exploitation. I do not think it's a stretch to say exploitation has not been eradicated. It's a certainty that children are still brought in to the world without a guarantee that they can be provided for.
We can argue for resource redistribution to prevent crises arising, however Malthusian 'prophecy' is predictive, and the Irish Famine was predictable without resource redistribution. I would argue we have already had a Malthusian crisis. I would further argue it's hubris to say that another is impossible.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_famine#Tenants.2C_subdiv... This paragraph only alludes to the process of subdivision, with only a small amount of research, you will see that it resulted in population exceeding the carrying capacity of the land they occupied in 1845. "Following the famine, reforms were implemented making it illegal to further divide land holdings."
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_famine#Blight_in_Ireland (look for "Crop loss in 1845")
Poor example-- the Famine should be known as the Starvation. There was plenty of food to ration to the Irish, even on Irish land; the British instead shipped it home, or fed it to cattle and then shipped that home, and let the Irish starve instead.
> the Malthusian crisis has not happened, and will not ever happen.
Obviously a scientist talking -- or is it "astrologer"?
Avoid making ignorant predictions, especially about the future. :)
Obviously a scientist talking -- or is it "astrologer"?
Avoid making ignorant predictions, especially about the future. :)
What overpopulation crisis? Current UN projections have population peaking not to much higher than now. China's population is expected to peak in 2026 then start shrinking. Most of Europe is facing a depopulation crisis.
How is depopulation a crisis?
The most immediate answer is that it makes a European-style system of social insurance for older people difficult when the ratio of working people to retirees decreases.
The broader answer is that it upends economic expectations. Say I'm thinking of building an office tower. If I know there will be fewer workers in 10 years, instead of more, I'm less likely to build it. If I'm pricing stock in a company, and I know there will be fewer customers in 10 years, instead of more, then I'm going to value that stock lower. What happens to the value of Facebook stock if we realize that there will be fewer and fewer teenagers as time goes on? The economy of the present is hugely dependent on expectations about the future.
Finally, though I don't think any European country is in danger of facing this yet, you need a certain critical mass of people to build a truly world-class city with world class arts, culture, etc. Cities smaller than about a million people don't have the consumer base or the tax base to really offer world class amenities. Now, this is admittedly a matter of aesthetics, but if you look at a place like Detroit, which went from 1.8 million to less than half that, you can see that the city is not just a smaller version of itself, but something lesser entirely.
And it's not just because of Detroit's poverty. Nobody wants to invest in a city that's shrinking. Contrast Detroit to Philadelphia. Philadelphia is one of the poorest major cities in the country, but it's population very slowly inched up during the 2000's. And while it's not the site of a high-end construction boom like say Toronto, it's a flourishing city. People are opening up new restaurants, new shops, etc, and reshaping downtown to be a much more livable place than it was just ten years ago.
The broader answer is that it upends economic expectations. Say I'm thinking of building an office tower. If I know there will be fewer workers in 10 years, instead of more, I'm less likely to build it. If I'm pricing stock in a company, and I know there will be fewer customers in 10 years, instead of more, then I'm going to value that stock lower. What happens to the value of Facebook stock if we realize that there will be fewer and fewer teenagers as time goes on? The economy of the present is hugely dependent on expectations about the future.
Finally, though I don't think any European country is in danger of facing this yet, you need a certain critical mass of people to build a truly world-class city with world class arts, culture, etc. Cities smaller than about a million people don't have the consumer base or the tax base to really offer world class amenities. Now, this is admittedly a matter of aesthetics, but if you look at a place like Detroit, which went from 1.8 million to less than half that, you can see that the city is not just a smaller version of itself, but something lesser entirely.
And it's not just because of Detroit's poverty. Nobody wants to invest in a city that's shrinking. Contrast Detroit to Philadelphia. Philadelphia is one of the poorest major cities in the country, but it's population very slowly inched up during the 2000's. And while it's not the site of a high-end construction boom like say Toronto, it's a flourishing city. People are opening up new restaurants, new shops, etc, and reshaping downtown to be a much more livable place than it was just ten years ago.
I guess that does sound like a difficult crisis - so point taken. But failure of a flawed system can be a positive result. The longer we go on encouraging systems that require infinite growth, the harder it's going to be to recover from the failure.
If we didn't have a pyramid scheme underlying the basic economic system, growth wouldn't be such a determining factor in city attractiveness and population increase wouldn't be a significant fuel that drives the growth.
Okay but back to reality: I now see how population decline could lead to a crisis while things adjust (eg: some cities collapse like detroit, some flourish). Thanks for the detailed reply. This is a complicated topic and I expect some people have much more thought out alternatives to our current predicament than I would come up with here.
If we didn't have a pyramid scheme underlying the basic economic system, growth wouldn't be such a determining factor in city attractiveness and population increase wouldn't be a significant fuel that drives the growth.
Okay but back to reality: I now see how population decline could lead to a crisis while things adjust (eg: some cities collapse like detroit, some flourish). Thanks for the detailed reply. This is a complicated topic and I expect some people have much more thought out alternatives to our current predicament than I would come up with here.
I won't be adding much but want to make a small correction: it makes any retirement system difficult. The non-European-style system in the US, where people just keep stocks in their 401k and IRA accounts, is equally in danger when the number of people shrinks, since the returns from those investments depend on the growth of the economy, the size of which in turn depends on the number of people.
I realize you addressed this in your second paragraph, so as I said this comment isn't adding much, but I think it's worth spelling out: anyone who wants to have a dream of retiring before they die, better pray that the "overpopulation crisis" actually materializes as severely as possible.
I realize you addressed this in your second paragraph, so as I said this comment isn't adding much, but I think it's worth spelling out: anyone who wants to have a dream of retiring before they die, better pray that the "overpopulation crisis" actually materializes as severely as possible.
No, you're totally right. The whole "Social Security is a Ponzi scheme" critique misses a basic point, which is that all systems of retirement are Ponzi schemes, or more charitably, systems built on paying it forward. The basic human life cycle, where the laboring generation takes care of children and the elderly, has not changed--we have just decoupled the process a bit using financial instruments and government programs.
When people "save for retirement" they put money in a 401k, they don't fill a cellar with creamed corn and MREs. Those investments are nothing more than earmarks on future production. The value of a stock is ultimately built on the right to receive a share of profits from the labor of the working generation. The same is true for bonds and other financial instruments.
No matter how you structure the retirement system, the physical reality is that the retired generation gets a cut of the goods and services produced by the working generation. As the latter gets smaller relative to the former, you have problems.
When people "save for retirement" they put money in a 401k, they don't fill a cellar with creamed corn and MREs. Those investments are nothing more than earmarks on future production. The value of a stock is ultimately built on the right to receive a share of profits from the labor of the working generation. The same is true for bonds and other financial instruments.
No matter how you structure the retirement system, the physical reality is that the retired generation gets a cut of the goods and services produced by the working generation. As the latter gets smaller relative to the former, you have problems.
> The most immediate answer is that it makes a European-style system of social insurance for older people difficult when the ratio of working people to retirees decreases.
Yes, but that system is unsustainable -- it requires constant growth, something the finite-sized earth cannot tolerate. It would be like nature creating a strategy that, to survive, requires the parent organism to have cancer.
The problem is that, instead of accepting and creating sustainable methods, we accommodate unsustainable growth rates by creating unsustainable social institutions.
Modern social institutions are a large-scale Ponzi scheme, a fraud that cannot go on forever.
Yes, but that system is unsustainable -- it requires constant growth, something the finite-sized earth cannot tolerate. It would be like nature creating a strategy that, to survive, requires the parent organism to have cancer.
The problem is that, instead of accepting and creating sustainable methods, we accommodate unsustainable growth rates by creating unsustainable social institutions.
Modern social institutions are a large-scale Ponzi scheme, a fraud that cannot go on forever.
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I didn't study the topic in depth, so take it with a grain of salt, but I recall reading something like this:
* the % of people capable of highly intellectual work is quite low * as time goes on, more fields of activity require those people * you need a growing population to provide that supply
They cited Russia as an example (population has been declining since the collapse of the USSR) - basically, to have e.g. a competitive aerospace industry in the 21st century, Russian population would have to increase by about 25%.
This is just one example.
* the % of people capable of highly intellectual work is quite low * as time goes on, more fields of activity require those people * you need a growing population to provide that supply
They cited Russia as an example (population has been declining since the collapse of the USSR) - basically, to have e.g. a competitive aerospace industry in the 21st century, Russian population would have to increase by about 25%.
This is just one example.
crisis: "a crucial stage or turning point in the course of something"
Most of our social institutions rely on having an increasing or at least stable population. We need young people to support retirees, etc.
Most of our social institutions rely on having an increasing or at least stable population. We need young people to support retirees, etc.
Ask Detroit.
Working people moving elsewhere for work is not the same as a general population decline we'd see from reduced birth rates.
Besides....I heard there are plans to regreen entire city blocks.
Besides....I heard there are plans to regreen entire city blocks.
A bit less pessimistic view is presented by Hans Rosling at a relatively recent TED talk. http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies.h... Well worth watching.
Sperm count is unlikely to affect the population growth anyway, what we need is to get people out of poverty and proper family planning with access to proper birth control. Then we can "control" the population.
Sperm count is unlikely to affect the population growth anyway, what we need is to get people out of poverty and proper family planning with access to proper birth control. Then we can "control" the population.
Don't forget educating women, which tends to result in fewer children per household.
I am concerned, though, that the temporary lull in overpopulation will be broken by belief systems that encourage large families; by definition, those with a genetic or memetic instinct to have many children will out-populate those without that instinct. (I have a soft spot for the Mormons, but they come to mind here.)
I am concerned, though, that the temporary lull in overpopulation will be broken by belief systems that encourage large families; by definition, those with a genetic or memetic instinct to have many children will out-populate those without that instinct. (I have a soft spot for the Mormons, but they come to mind here.)
Memes aren't strictly inheritable in the same way that genes are.
For example, it is completely plausible to advance the argument that children in large families decide to have fewer offspring due to their own childhood experiences. I'm not saying that this is definitively the case or that I have any evidence for it, but it is just as plausible as the conjecture that a propensity for a large number of offspring is perfectly inheritable.
For example, it is completely plausible to advance the argument that children in large families decide to have fewer offspring due to their own childhood experiences. I'm not saying that this is definitively the case or that I have any evidence for it, but it is just as plausible as the conjecture that a propensity for a large number of offspring is perfectly inheritable.
Even if memes are not genetically heritable, they are still transmissible, and therefore still subject to selection pressures. And the more children these families have, the broader the attack surface for large-family beliefs to infect the next generation.
Moreover, I would suggest that genetics do influence tendencies for adopting some memes over others, especially as regarding the instinct to spread genetic material, which is very ancient. I can't cite any scientific support for this idea, but the likelihood seems very strong.
Moreover, I would suggest that genetics do influence tendencies for adopting some memes over others, especially as regarding the instinct to spread genetic material, which is very ancient. I can't cite any scientific support for this idea, but the likelihood seems very strong.
What we need is a 1 child policy like in China.
http://www.brycealcock.com/random/TriviaStats/ChinaPopulatio...
Because it's demonstrably successful at curbing population growth rate? Because during periods of the most aggressive enforcement of the one-child policy, China had its highest growth rate in recent history, 2-2.5x that of the US?
And now, during its period of least aggressive enforcement, but with a rapid pace of industrialization and wealth injection, the growth rate has fallen dramatically?
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=24&c=ja&l=en
Or perhaps we want to look at Japan, which without forced abortions, property confiscation, and brutal acts of repression have managed to achieve a negative growth rate?
No matter which way you slice the data, the trend is clear: industrialization, wealth, and stability decrease growth rates, and do so far better than any number of guns and Bibles you can point at people.
Because it's demonstrably successful at curbing population growth rate? Because during periods of the most aggressive enforcement of the one-child policy, China had its highest growth rate in recent history, 2-2.5x that of the US?
And now, during its period of least aggressive enforcement, but with a rapid pace of industrialization and wealth injection, the growth rate has fallen dramatically?
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=24&c=ja&l=en
Or perhaps we want to look at Japan, which without forced abortions, property confiscation, and brutal acts of repression have managed to achieve a negative growth rate?
No matter which way you slice the data, the trend is clear: industrialization, wealth, and stability decrease growth rates, and do so far better than any number of guns and Bibles you can point at people.
> Because during periods of the most aggressive enforcement of the one-child policy, China had its highest growth rate in recent history, 2-2.5x that of the US?
The fact that China would think to enforce such a policy should give one pause.
The fact that China would think to enforce such a policy should give one pause.
I don't think that policy is so great. People don't have children just because they can, we need to educate people about children and population growth. My aunt and uncle have an adopted daughter from China, she was abandoned as a result of the one child policy: the policy didn't stop her from being born, but it stopped her from having her biological family.
That does lead to other problems, like putting a strain on the welfare system of countries when there suddenly is a huge decrease in the number of people that support those who have retired.
Look at Japan where there are fewer and fewer supporting more and more. It is kinda working for now but what will happen in 20 years? Who knows.
Look at Japan where there are fewer and fewer supporting more and more. It is kinda working for now but what will happen in 20 years? Who knows.
My guess? We'll gradually shift back into larger households, with several generations living under one roof. Not that bad, when you come to think of it.
No, i don't think we should celebrate about such a serious health issue. The data is alarming and future studies should focus on identifying the source of this trend. The decline is reported in developed countries (France and Britain), which already have at-or-below level replacement birth rates. The best way to reduce population growth in the developing world is to bring people out of poverty.
Drifting into a state of perpetual war? Isn't the current period the most peaceful in known history?
> Isn't the current period the most peaceful in known history?
Relevant TED lecture by Steven Pinker:
http://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violen...
Relevant TED lecture by Steven Pinker:
http://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violen...
>Isn't the current period the most peaceful in known history?
[Citation needed].
Define current period and define peaceful? We haven't had a global conflict in 60-odd years (and yay for that), but we had two global conflicts in the last hundred years. We almost had a third (US vs PRC)and forth one (US vs CCCP) but it appears that nuclear war let cooler heads prevail. In the past two hundred years there is almost no place of human habitation that has been untouched by war.
In fairness most of the civilized world has, with a few rare exceptions, always been in a state of perpetual war.
For bonus points how many wars is did the US fight during the year 2012?
[Citation needed].
Define current period and define peaceful? We haven't had a global conflict in 60-odd years (and yay for that), but we had two global conflicts in the last hundred years. We almost had a third (US vs PRC)and forth one (US vs CCCP) but it appears that nuclear war let cooler heads prevail. In the past two hundred years there is almost no place of human habitation that has been untouched by war.
In fairness most of the civilized world has, with a few rare exceptions, always been in a state of perpetual war.
For bonus points how many wars is did the US fight during the year 2012?
Quickie googled citation:
http://www.npr.org/2011/12/07/143285836/war-and-violence-on-...
It doesn't much matter what you choose as "current period", because war and violence has been on the decline for quite a long time.
It's pretty annoying to try to have a factual discussion and get replies that are nothing but handwaving and anecdotes. Listing off the violent conflicts in the past century without offering any comparison to wars further in the past is completely useless to this discussion.
http://www.npr.org/2011/12/07/143285836/war-and-violence-on-...
It doesn't much matter what you choose as "current period", because war and violence has been on the decline for quite a long time.
It's pretty annoying to try to have a factual discussion and get replies that are nothing but handwaving and anecdotes. Listing off the violent conflicts in the past century without offering any comparison to wars further in the past is completely useless to this discussion.
That citation agrees with me rather than with you.
>"GOLDSTEIN: Well, no, because the past 100 years were - there was a big explosion of violence in the early part of the 20th century, but the 17th century was no picnic either. The Thirty Years' War destroyed a third of the population of Germany, and back through history there have been terrible wars much of the time."
>"And even in prehistoric times, as many as a quarter of the men in a society not infrequently died in wars. So it's actually a new thing and something that's developed in the least 60 years and especially the last 20 years. And we can talk about why it is, and Steven Pinker will have more to say about that also, but the big change is that people are finding other ways to solve their problems, not through war, and we're seeing an actual shrinking in the number of people killed worldwide."
That is to say that the source you found is making the claim that the reduction has happened in the last 20-60 years. Read that again: "So it's actually a new thing and something that's developed in the least 60 years and especially the last 20 years." Is that not the same thing I said: "We haven't had a global conflict in 60-odd years (and yay for that), but we had two global conflicts in the last hundred years." In fact what is said in this interview is pretty much what I said in my post.
>It doesn't much matter what you choose as "current period", because war and violence has been on the decline for quite a long time.
Yes it does, it really matters what you choose as your current period. Your own source backs me up on this.
>It's pretty annoying to try to have a factual discussion and get replies that are nothing but hand waving and anecdotes.
Large scale violence like WW2 is not really an anecdote but in fact a large chunk of data. I assumed that you were aware that most historians accepted that WW2 claimed the largest number of lives in human history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_...
>"GOLDSTEIN: Well, no, because the past 100 years were - there was a big explosion of violence in the early part of the 20th century, but the 17th century was no picnic either. The Thirty Years' War destroyed a third of the population of Germany, and back through history there have been terrible wars much of the time."
>"And even in prehistoric times, as many as a quarter of the men in a society not infrequently died in wars. So it's actually a new thing and something that's developed in the least 60 years and especially the last 20 years. And we can talk about why it is, and Steven Pinker will have more to say about that also, but the big change is that people are finding other ways to solve their problems, not through war, and we're seeing an actual shrinking in the number of people killed worldwide."
That is to say that the source you found is making the claim that the reduction has happened in the last 20-60 years. Read that again: "So it's actually a new thing and something that's developed in the least 60 years and especially the last 20 years." Is that not the same thing I said: "We haven't had a global conflict in 60-odd years (and yay for that), but we had two global conflicts in the last hundred years." In fact what is said in this interview is pretty much what I said in my post.
>It doesn't much matter what you choose as "current period", because war and violence has been on the decline for quite a long time.
Yes it does, it really matters what you choose as your current period. Your own source backs me up on this.
>It's pretty annoying to try to have a factual discussion and get replies that are nothing but hand waving and anecdotes.
Large scale violence like WW2 is not really an anecdote but in fact a large chunk of data. I assumed that you were aware that most historians accepted that WW2 claimed the largest number of lives in human history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_...
> I assumed that you were aware that most historians accepted that WW2 claimed the largest number of lives in human history:
Largest number, but not largest proportion. A human alive during WWII was far more likely to survive that war than a human alive during the Mongol conquests or the An Lushan rebellion was to survive those. The Mongol conquests were about as deadly as WWII, yet happened in a world with only 1/5th of the population. Those two events killed 5-10% of the total world population, while WWII "only" killed about 3%.
This business where literally everyone who replies to disagree with me only looks at absolute numbers is getting pretty irritating. It just makes no sense.
Largest number, but not largest proportion. A human alive during WWII was far more likely to survive that war than a human alive during the Mongol conquests or the An Lushan rebellion was to survive those. The Mongol conquests were about as deadly as WWII, yet happened in a world with only 1/5th of the population. Those two events killed 5-10% of the total world population, while WWII "only" killed about 3%.
This business where literally everyone who replies to disagree with me only looks at absolute numbers is getting pretty irritating. It just makes no sense.
>This business where literally everyone who replies to disagree with me only looks at absolute numbers is getting pretty irritating. It just makes no sense.
This is a learning moment. Other people are using different assumptions about war and how to measure it maybe they have something to offer you in perspective.
For example a war is not merely summed up by number of peoples killed nor is it understood by the chance that a single person at that time period might be killed or the total world population killed. In fact the level of war or numbers of wars could increase dramatically without any increase in violence by merely varying the culture, technology and other circumstances.
You did not address the fact that the source you cited for your argument supported my claims and not yours. Have you cast Pinker and Goldstein aside? If you still agree with Pinker and Goldstein then you agree with the claim I put forward and I'm not sure we have much more to talk about. If you don't agree with Pinker and Goldstein, why not?
Expressing how irritating or annoying you find the people with whom you are having a discussion is rude. Why do you think such statements are a good strategy?
This is a learning moment. Other people are using different assumptions about war and how to measure it maybe they have something to offer you in perspective.
For example a war is not merely summed up by number of peoples killed nor is it understood by the chance that a single person at that time period might be killed or the total world population killed. In fact the level of war or numbers of wars could increase dramatically without any increase in violence by merely varying the culture, technology and other circumstances.
You did not address the fact that the source you cited for your argument supported my claims and not yours. Have you cast Pinker and Goldstein aside? If you still agree with Pinker and Goldstein then you agree with the claim I put forward and I'm not sure we have much more to talk about. If you don't agree with Pinker and Goldstein, why not?
Expressing how irritating or annoying you find the people with whom you are having a discussion is rude. Why do you think such statements are a good strategy?
> This is a learning moment. Other people are using different assumptions about war and how to measure it maybe they have something to offer you in perspective.
Right, right. I'm supposed to sit back and think about why people are saying this stuff, while you're free to make idiotic statements about my ignorance of history. Did you ever stop to think that maybe I had some other reasoning behind my statement beyond ignorance of the death toll of WWII?
Regarding the claims, the only important one is whether we are headed toward perpetual war or not. The trend is against it. Specific timeframes are just bikeshedding.
> Expressing how irritating or annoying you find the people with whom you are having a discussion is rude. Why do you think such statements are a good strategy?
I'm hoping that it would cause people writing without thinking to take a moment before replying. No, it doesn't appear to be working well.
Right, right. I'm supposed to sit back and think about why people are saying this stuff, while you're free to make idiotic statements about my ignorance of history. Did you ever stop to think that maybe I had some other reasoning behind my statement beyond ignorance of the death toll of WWII?
Regarding the claims, the only important one is whether we are headed toward perpetual war or not. The trend is against it. Specific timeframes are just bikeshedding.
> Expressing how irritating or annoying you find the people with whom you are having a discussion is rude. Why do you think such statements are a good strategy?
I'm hoping that it would cause people writing without thinking to take a moment before replying. No, it doesn't appear to be working well.
> Drifting into a state of perpetual war? Isn't the current period the most peaceful in known history?
Let's look at the evidence:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_military_confli...
The only reason we aren't aware of the number of military conflicts taking place is because they aren't on the evening news.
And yes, by any objective measure, this is a more warlike time than any in prior history, simply because there are more people available and willing to fight.
Let's look at the evidence:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_military_confli...
The only reason we aren't aware of the number of military conflicts taking place is because they aren't on the evening news.
And yes, by any objective measure, this is a more warlike time than any in prior history, simply because there are more people available and willing to fight.
I think many would disagree with you on your definition of what makes a time 'warlike'. I think proportions involved in war would make a lot more sense than absolute numbers.
I found this talk very interesting on a similar topic: http://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violen...
I found this talk very interesting on a similar topic: http://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violen...
That's not actually evidence related to the assertion at hand. For that, you'd need a historical comparison, which that list does not provide.
You may be right about absolute numbers, but absolute numbers are pointless here. From what I've seen before, in terms of the relative number of people killed in war compared to the overall population, this is the most peaceful time known. If 2x as many people get killed in wars, but there are 4x as many people alive, that world is more peaceful, not less.
You may be right about absolute numbers, but absolute numbers are pointless here. From what I've seen before, in terms of the relative number of people killed in war compared to the overall population, this is the most peaceful time known. If 2x as many people get killed in wars, but there are 4x as many people alive, that world is more peaceful, not less.
I don't entirely agree that "absolute numbers are pointless here". If you look at the amount of human suffering, your world is 2x worse.
Well, it is an issue that we are more likely to care when someone suffers, these days. That increases human suffering all by itself.
The only reason we aren't aware of the number of military conflicts taking place is because they aren't on the evening news.
That's a little unfair. They're rarely covered on submission/popularity-driven news sites, either. People tend not to care unless it figures into their usual political arguments. I notice this a lot with terrorism: people in the US seem to think it's mythical because it doesn't happen to them very often, even if it's unfortunately common globally. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents,_Ja...
By the way, there's a lovely book on the subject: http://www.amazon.com/Who-Hates-Whom-Well-Armed-Intractable/...
That's a little unfair. They're rarely covered on submission/popularity-driven news sites, either. People tend not to care unless it figures into their usual political arguments. I notice this a lot with terrorism: people in the US seem to think it's mythical because it doesn't happen to them very often, even if it's unfortunately common globally. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents,_Ja...
By the way, there's a lovely book on the subject: http://www.amazon.com/Who-Hates-Whom-Well-Armed-Intractable/...
You beat me to it. While the resource to person ratio for our current population may be somewhat sustainable, that does not take into account the output of humans, such as trash, waste, unnatural pollutants, and (sorry, but it's pertinent) carbon gases.
So while humans may be fine at our current population, the earth and its other tenants are not fine. Humans are the most destructive force in nature, and the less of them there are the better, for our own survival as well as the rest of the planet.
Add the impending climate change into the mix (once again, our fault), which will most likely bring droughts and famine, and your resource-to-person ratio drops significantly, making the human population as it is now dangerously high.
I really think dropping human population is a good thing. It will mean less conflicts and resource contention in the next 300 years as deserts spread and oceans rise.
So while humans may be fine at our current population, the earth and its other tenants are not fine. Humans are the most destructive force in nature, and the less of them there are the better, for our own survival as well as the rest of the planet.
Add the impending climate change into the mix (once again, our fault), which will most likely bring droughts and famine, and your resource-to-person ratio drops significantly, making the human population as it is now dangerously high.
I really think dropping human population is a good thing. It will mean less conflicts and resource contention in the next 300 years as deserts spread and oceans rise.
who will go to mars, if there will be not enough to fill earth?
Thanks for the link, I would have never known without Wikipedia...out of all places. /s
Sperm count falling by one third in 25 years is much scarier, suggests a horrible trend for us. As for overpopulation, people usually had /have a lot of kids because of high mortality rates.
By the way, who is going to work so that pension check gets to you ;) ?
Sperm count falling by one third in 25 years is much scarier, suggests a horrible trend for us. As for overpopulation, people usually had /have a lot of kids because of high mortality rates.
By the way, who is going to work so that pension check gets to you ;) ?
Great movie about this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men
Seriously though what is the problem, we have large complex societies and fertility drops dramatically. There's a natural limit and Malthusian ethics of genocide and eugenics are unnecessary. Good news all around.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men
Seriously though what is the problem, we have large complex societies and fertility drops dramatically. There's a natural limit and Malthusian ethics of genocide and eugenics are unnecessary. Good news all around.
Malthusianism has been debunked since before any of us were born. Humans are on average wealth producing.
I would be interested in learning whether this issue is universal for all men, or specific to men of certain demographics. Anyone have any insight?
The study was preformed on sperm banks in France. This means the results probably generalize to all developed/industrialized nations. What would be nice would be some studies to look for this effect in other societies. It would certainly help dial in on root causes.
"...much of the effect could be caused by changes in how sperm quality is measured.. the World Health Organisation’s manual on the subject has been revised four times since it was first published in 1980..."
"...a continuing investigation of Danish conscripts, is notable for having been established with a consistent method of measurement from the start. Its data show no changes over the years. And Dr Rolland and Dr le Moal admit that, despite the apparent drop in sperm counts they found, there was no increase in the number of infertile men during the period of their study."
I haven't actually dived into this new study to see if the authors accounted for these factors. Even if they did, it seems odd that the one study which has maintained the same method of measurement is the one that shows no changes.
[0] http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/2156787...