Should I develop Windows metro style apps?
8 comments
It's anyone's guess how successful W8 will be in the long run. Windows market share on the PC is still nearly 90%. The big question is, how will it do in the tablet market?
If you look at the WP7 case, it's not promising. Even after nearly two years, WP7 doesn't even have 5% market share. Sales aren't sufficient to support most developers.
That said, it's an earlier phase in the development of the tablet market. It's quite possible that MS will fare better here. One reason WP7 didn't do so well is that all of the other hardware manufacturers (excluding Apple, obviously) had already jumped on the Android bandwagon and were doing well there. The same can't be said of the tablet space at this point.
Every non Apple hardware manufacturer wants to have a real horse in the tablet game. It could be argued that the Android tablets were an opportunity for manufacturers to get their game in order for W8 (this, and mobile experience, for those that develop phones). There will be a ton of marketing money behind W8 in the coming year, driven, in part, by all of the hardware partners that MS works with.
MS has a great development tool chain. They also have excellent UX research backing W8 and the experience is likely to be much better on W8 for the average tablet user.
My guess is that by the time W9 ships, MS will have significant market share and they will have sorted out most of the kinks with W8. It's early days right now and there are likely to be some bumps. This will be a bit like Vista vs. W7. The first version was pretty good for what it was and they nailed it in the second release. The difference is that this time, the "first version" is quite good, given the significant departure from the past.
If you've got Windows experience, I would say, go for it. In particular, if you've done any Silverlight or WPF, the learning curve is mostly behind you. If not, you've got several avenues to approach it: HTML/CSS/JS or C#/XAML, or even C++ with XAML or DirectX. There will be a learning curve, of course.
If you're looking for a new opportunity, to be honest, I can't think of anything else on the near horizon that compares. It could be, meh, but it could also be huge. Good luck.
If you look at the WP7 case, it's not promising. Even after nearly two years, WP7 doesn't even have 5% market share. Sales aren't sufficient to support most developers.
That said, it's an earlier phase in the development of the tablet market. It's quite possible that MS will fare better here. One reason WP7 didn't do so well is that all of the other hardware manufacturers (excluding Apple, obviously) had already jumped on the Android bandwagon and were doing well there. The same can't be said of the tablet space at this point.
Every non Apple hardware manufacturer wants to have a real horse in the tablet game. It could be argued that the Android tablets were an opportunity for manufacturers to get their game in order for W8 (this, and mobile experience, for those that develop phones). There will be a ton of marketing money behind W8 in the coming year, driven, in part, by all of the hardware partners that MS works with.
MS has a great development tool chain. They also have excellent UX research backing W8 and the experience is likely to be much better on W8 for the average tablet user.
My guess is that by the time W9 ships, MS will have significant market share and they will have sorted out most of the kinks with W8. It's early days right now and there are likely to be some bumps. This will be a bit like Vista vs. W7. The first version was pretty good for what it was and they nailed it in the second release. The difference is that this time, the "first version" is quite good, given the significant departure from the past.
If you've got Windows experience, I would say, go for it. In particular, if you've done any Silverlight or WPF, the learning curve is mostly behind you. If not, you've got several avenues to approach it: HTML/CSS/JS or C#/XAML, or even C++ with XAML or DirectX. There will be a learning curve, of course.
If you're looking for a new opportunity, to be honest, I can't think of anything else on the near horizon that compares. It could be, meh, but it could also be huge. Good luck.
Take this for the anecdotal account and speculation that it is.
My father loves his Vista/Windows 7 gadgets - and that's what I see as the big idea behind Metro on Windows. Microsoft has been pushing this kind of approach for a long time (since 1999 with HTA's).
I suspect that they've got user data to show that adding a sandbox around these will make sense in the long run.
As for flopping, it depends on whether you mean in the press or in enterprise. I expect Metro Apps to be hugely successful in the workplace over the long term - Microsoft has a single toolchain which will work from cloud to desktop to mobile - there's going to be demand for those skills.
To put it another way, if Metro apps get 10% acceptance in the Windows community that's a bigger market than Linux and perhaps OSX.
My father loves his Vista/Windows 7 gadgets - and that's what I see as the big idea behind Metro on Windows. Microsoft has been pushing this kind of approach for a long time (since 1999 with HTA's).
I suspect that they've got user data to show that adding a sandbox around these will make sense in the long run.
As for flopping, it depends on whether you mean in the press or in enterprise. I expect Metro Apps to be hugely successful in the workplace over the long term - Microsoft has a single toolchain which will work from cloud to desktop to mobile - there's going to be demand for those skills.
To put it another way, if Metro apps get 10% acceptance in the Windows community that's a bigger market than Linux and perhaps OSX.
The iOS/mac app store is a bit of a crapshoot from what I hear these days with developers either making very significant sums of money or not very much at all. I'd expect the Windows store to be similar when it comes out. If you manage to get promoted on the front page or something similar, you'll get a huge amount of exposure which should translate into a huge number of sales.
Microsoft's more or less going all in with it, and when they do that, within a couple of years they tend to get things right [or at least force them into tons of places] (xbox, azure, SharePoint, etc). The store's going to be on hundreds of millions of desktops and other devices, so while it may be a case of needing to convince people to sign up for the store, I think that it'll gain traction pretty quickly.
WP7 apps supposedly do better on average, and though that's probably largely marketing hype, it's also likely related to the fact that there arent x hundred thousand apps on WP7. When Windows 8 hits, there won't be x hundred thousand apps in the store either, so there's a window where if you're ready to go, you'll have a decent advantage (though this will get slimmer with every day) even if only a small number of people (comparatively) sign up for the store.
All in all, if you're quick to market, there's a bundle of cash to be made. If you take longer, the money's still there but it'll be riskier (and related to how promoted / lucky / app-store-SEOd you are). These are true whether or not the windows store is a flop - but considering the money that's in it for Microsoft, they'll be pushing it as hard as they can.
If you really want to hedge your bets and your ideas are compatible, make it mostly web-based with a Metro front-end. If Metro does get pulled or locked down too much, then the real alternative will be a larger shift to the browser for applications imo. You can also more easily double dip at some point in the future and appeal to a broader audience while still getting the app store cash.
Microsoft's more or less going all in with it, and when they do that, within a couple of years they tend to get things right [or at least force them into tons of places] (xbox, azure, SharePoint, etc). The store's going to be on hundreds of millions of desktops and other devices, so while it may be a case of needing to convince people to sign up for the store, I think that it'll gain traction pretty quickly.
WP7 apps supposedly do better on average, and though that's probably largely marketing hype, it's also likely related to the fact that there arent x hundred thousand apps on WP7. When Windows 8 hits, there won't be x hundred thousand apps in the store either, so there's a window where if you're ready to go, you'll have a decent advantage (though this will get slimmer with every day) even if only a small number of people (comparatively) sign up for the store.
All in all, if you're quick to market, there's a bundle of cash to be made. If you take longer, the money's still there but it'll be riskier (and related to how promoted / lucky / app-store-SEOd you are). These are true whether or not the windows store is a flop - but considering the money that's in it for Microsoft, they'll be pushing it as hard as they can.
If you really want to hedge your bets and your ideas are compatible, make it mostly web-based with a Metro front-end. If Metro does get pulled or locked down too much, then the real alternative will be a larger shift to the browser for applications imo. You can also more easily double dip at some point in the future and appeal to a broader audience while still getting the app store cash.
Windows 8 development via JavaScript, HTML, CSS is also surprisingly easy, especially if you have a strong web development background. If you have a web-focused application in mind, it really don't see any harm in dabbling with a Metro app build to see how it plays out.
You're kind of asking the question wrong. In my mind it should be "Is it worth investing time and energy in developing Windows apps".
Metro apps are a mix of HTML/CSS/JS along with the existing frameworks for the deeper function stuff. The existing frameworks for the deeper stuff are used throughout the eco system. They apply to much more than just Metro apps. So even if Metro apps fail, you'll still have a useful knowledge base to develop plain old Windows apps, or web apps.
Metro apps are a mix of HTML/CSS/JS along with the existing frameworks for the deeper function stuff. The existing frameworks for the deeper stuff are used throughout the eco system. They apply to much more than just Metro apps. So even if Metro apps fail, you'll still have a useful knowledge base to develop plain old Windows apps, or web apps.
I would say you shouldn't. It all depends on what type it is to be honest. I would target windows 7, mac, and linux and ignore windows 8 for now.
Would it be worth your time if it flopped? I think you should do it if you really want to.
nope
I'd like to have your opinion on this one:
Since, in my opinion, the mac app store is growing rather saturated and I don't have cocoa knowledge, would I be better off developing Windows metro apps? What is your opinion about windows 8? Will it be worth investing time and energy in developing metro style apps or will it rather flop? I know you can't really foresee what's going to happen, all I ask is your personal opinion/view on the future of Windows.
Greetings Daan