Ask HN: How do YOU choose which business ideas to work on?
8 comments
> Every couple of months or so I get really annoyed when I see that someone built something I already thought of but dismissed as not good enough of an idea/problem or as a waste of time.
Don’t pay too much attention to what other people have done. Most people with an idea will never see it to completion [1]. And even if there are large companies already in a space there are very few winner-take-all markets. Even companies like Apple have small competitors (e.g., Framework).
Also, not every idea needs to be original. Most companies copy or improve on others’ ideas. Google, Microsoft, Oracle, Apple, and Amazon might have pioneered new markets once they were already big, but they certainly started out as iterative improvements (or better marketing) over existing products.
[1] in fact, one of the best things you can do is reach out to people who already tried and failed at an idea and see if you can learn about why. Or if they are still in business, reach out to former employees. A lot of people will be surprisingly candid with you.
Don’t pay too much attention to what other people have done. Most people with an idea will never see it to completion [1]. And even if there are large companies already in a space there are very few winner-take-all markets. Even companies like Apple have small competitors (e.g., Framework).
Also, not every idea needs to be original. Most companies copy or improve on others’ ideas. Google, Microsoft, Oracle, Apple, and Amazon might have pioneered new markets once they were already big, but they certainly started out as iterative improvements (or better marketing) over existing products.
[1] in fact, one of the best things you can do is reach out to people who already tried and failed at an idea and see if you can learn about why. Or if they are still in business, reach out to former employees. A lot of people will be surprisingly candid with you.
An idea's existence doesn't mean you can't build it. It's a good sign that it's been validated. Since you're not shooting for the moon, even more so.
I would pick something you're interested in, which you can do for a long time. That'll sustain you when you can't get customers or your product misses the mark.
I would pick something you're interested in, which you can do for a long time. That'll sustain you when you can't get customers or your product misses the mark.
Acquaint yourself with the Pareto principle, you will find it's evident in so many aspects of life, particularly in business. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
The one I’m most excited about, that has the most realistic path to revenue.
I mull on ideas for months before going all in on them. Some years. I try to take every idea to its logical conclusion in my head, I obsess over it.
Then when the time comes I commit to that one idea and that one idea only. So far I’ve built about 7 projects. All relatively small (months)
My success so far has been to sell one project for about a fifth of my yearly salary but I only spent a week building it, winning multiple “startup” competitions, and now building a tool that I’m going to monetise via subscriptions.
I mull on ideas for months before going all in on them. Some years. I try to take every idea to its logical conclusion in my head, I obsess over it.
Then when the time comes I commit to that one idea and that one idea only. So far I’ve built about 7 projects. All relatively small (months)
My success so far has been to sell one project for about a fifth of my yearly salary but I only spent a week building it, winning multiple “startup” competitions, and now building a tool that I’m going to monetise via subscriptions.
It’s easy - if you didn’t do it, you haven’t done it.
There is no point in asking others “how” they do it.
Whatever reasons make you do it or procrastinate are the most relevant for you.
There is no point in asking others “how” they do it.
Whatever reasons make you do it or procrastinate are the most relevant for you.
My goal is not build the next unicorn, just a profitable business that could sustain me.
In that case, reselling physical goods manufactured by others is the simplest thing that might work.
For example, stand on a bustling corner with your hotdog cart (around lunch time of course). More people eat hotdogs than buy JavaScript frameworks and more people will gladly pay three bucks for a hotdog and a Mountain Dew than for a bookmark manager.
a very limited budget
If you are undercapitalized for your business idea, start a business where you are not. Running out of money is how businesses fail.
a waste of time.
Having ideas is almost always a waste of time. Ideas where the first step is spending money are usually a waste of money as well. Having ideas is easier than doing something and spending money is the easiest thing to do because shopping avoids rejection and it’s nearly impossible to fail at shopping.
Good luck.
In that case, reselling physical goods manufactured by others is the simplest thing that might work.
For example, stand on a bustling corner with your hotdog cart (around lunch time of course). More people eat hotdogs than buy JavaScript frameworks and more people will gladly pay three bucks for a hotdog and a Mountain Dew than for a bookmark manager.
a very limited budget
If you are undercapitalized for your business idea, start a business where you are not. Running out of money is how businesses fail.
a waste of time.
Having ideas is almost always a waste of time. Ideas where the first step is spending money are usually a waste of money as well. Having ideas is easier than doing something and spending money is the easiest thing to do because shopping avoids rejection and it’s nearly impossible to fail at shopping.
Good luck.
This is sobering…
To help me with something similar, I score my ideas against a number of measures and questions. It's helped me choose something to build over the last 6 months or so.
They are;
### Idea Validation - Is this - Unworkable (consequences for the user are serious if not addressed) - Is this - Unavoidable (something the user needs to do) - Is this - Urgent (and needs to do now, number 1 thing) - Is this - Underserved (MVS isn't served) - What is the Minimal Viable Segment - Is this - Blatant and Critical? - Is this - Latent and Aspirational? - What are the - Dependencies - What are the - External Factors - Could there be a - Backlash - Is the timing good - Is this - Discontinuous - Is this - Disruptive - Is this - Defensible - Describe the - Before / After - Is this - Gain / Pain > 10 - How big could it be 1 - 10 - Founder / Market fit (am I an expert?) 1 - 10 - How sure are you that this is solving an acute problem & do I have personal experience 1 - 10 - Have a new insight (maybe counterintuitive insight) 1 - 10 - Has this only recently become possible? - Are there network effects - How frequent a problem is this - Is this a 0 to 1 idea - Can this be a monopoly - Can it make money - Could I work on this for 10+ years - Could I build this
### Value Prop Statement - This is for (target customer) - who is dissatisfied with (existing solution) - due to (key unmet needs) - We offer (venture name & product category) - That provides (benefits of solution - not better, faster, cheaper)
They are;
### Idea Validation - Is this - Unworkable (consequences for the user are serious if not addressed) - Is this - Unavoidable (something the user needs to do) - Is this - Urgent (and needs to do now, number 1 thing) - Is this - Underserved (MVS isn't served) - What is the Minimal Viable Segment - Is this - Blatant and Critical? - Is this - Latent and Aspirational? - What are the - Dependencies - What are the - External Factors - Could there be a - Backlash - Is the timing good - Is this - Discontinuous - Is this - Disruptive - Is this - Defensible - Describe the - Before / After - Is this - Gain / Pain > 10 - How big could it be 1 - 10 - Founder / Market fit (am I an expert?) 1 - 10 - How sure are you that this is solving an acute problem & do I have personal experience 1 - 10 - Have a new insight (maybe counterintuitive insight) 1 - 10 - Has this only recently become possible? - Are there network effects - How frequent a problem is this - Is this a 0 to 1 idea - Can this be a monopoly - Can it make money - Could I work on this for 10+ years - Could I build this
### Value Prop Statement - This is for (target customer) - who is dissatisfied with (existing solution) - due to (key unmet needs) - We offer (venture name & product category) - That provides (benefits of solution - not better, faster, cheaper)
Choose the one you won't get bored for the longest time. It is a lonely road.
Every couple of months or so I get really annoyed when I see that someone built something I already thought of but dismissed as not good enough of an idea/problem or as a waste of time.
I know: execution is what matters, ideas are worthless, but still, it doesn't make it any less frustrating.
If you had dozens of ideas right now, and a very limited budget to validate them, how would you choose which idea to work on?
My goal is not build the next unicorn, just a profitable business that could sustain me.