A sudden stratospheric warming is coming(severe-weather.eu)
severe-weather.eu
A sudden stratospheric warming is coming
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/sudden-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-collapse-effect-forecast-february-march-united-states-europe-fa/
4 comments
Very in depth article but the short of it is that there will be colder than usual weather across northeast usa and Canada as well as slightly colder than usual in Northwest Europe. This will occur most likely in March.
KagiAI summary:
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) is forecast to displace the Polar Vortex and potentially shake the weather patterns in the coming weeks. The Polar Vortex behaves like a very large cyclone, covering the whole north pole down to the mid-latitudes. Rossby Waves (a pair of strong high and low-pressure systems) deflect energy upwards into the Stratosphere as they break, temporarily pausing its strengthening or weakening its circulation. The influx of energy into the Stratosphere creates a major disruption and warming, completely collapsing the upper stratospheric Polar Vortex. The forecast for the 30mb pressure level in the Stratosphere shows a complete collapse of the upper and middle Polar Vortex. The pressure pattern analysis for the weekend shows a strong lower core of the Polar Vortex bringing very cold air over the Midwest and the eastern United States. The temperature anomaly also shows the strong, abnormally high temperatures surrounding the Vortex, weakening it further. The expected pressure pattern post-SSW is high pressure over the polar regions and low pressure in the lower latitudes, prompting a low-pressure response over the eastern United States and Europe. The temperature anomaly from the CFS ensembles shows this cold extension from Canada down over the Midwest and into the eastern United States. An interesting fact is that the Polar Vortex can reach over 50km/31miles in altitude, making it a powerful force in the atmosphere.
https://labs.kagi.com/ai/sum?url=https://www.severe-weather....
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) is forecast to displace the Polar Vortex and potentially shake the weather patterns in the coming weeks. The Polar Vortex behaves like a very large cyclone, covering the whole north pole down to the mid-latitudes. Rossby Waves (a pair of strong high and low-pressure systems) deflect energy upwards into the Stratosphere as they break, temporarily pausing its strengthening or weakening its circulation. The influx of energy into the Stratosphere creates a major disruption and warming, completely collapsing the upper stratospheric Polar Vortex. The forecast for the 30mb pressure level in the Stratosphere shows a complete collapse of the upper and middle Polar Vortex. The pressure pattern analysis for the weekend shows a strong lower core of the Polar Vortex bringing very cold air over the Midwest and the eastern United States. The temperature anomaly also shows the strong, abnormally high temperatures surrounding the Vortex, weakening it further. The expected pressure pattern post-SSW is high pressure over the polar regions and low pressure in the lower latitudes, prompting a low-pressure response over the eastern United States and Europe. The temperature anomaly from the CFS ensembles shows this cold extension from Canada down over the Midwest and into the eastern United States. An interesting fact is that the Polar Vortex can reach over 50km/31miles in altitude, making it a powerful force in the atmosphere.
https://labs.kagi.com/ai/sum?url=https://www.severe-weather....
Cool i didn't know kagi had this feature.
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Thanks for the summary, I read this long article and at the end I was not sure I understood what it says.
the news has said that March went "out like a lion" a lot lately. This may be the 6th year out of the last 7. I like having notice this early though.
I found the explanations of how the polar vortex really "works" worth a read.
>A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming, collapsing the Polar Vortex
I kept reading and reading and kept wondering and wondering when the heck the conclusion would come.
It was very disappointing that it wasn't going to be a total global collapse of the environment spawing hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, volcanos, zombies and all kinds of end-of-the-world stuff. I'm so bitterly disappointed.
I kept reading and reading and kept wondering and wondering when the heck the conclusion would come.
It was very disappointing that it wasn't going to be a total global collapse of the environment spawing hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, volcanos, zombies and all kinds of end-of-the-world stuff. I'm so bitterly disappointed.
This website reads a little alarmist.
Might be that reading "collapsing the Polar Vortex" and having no background knowledge gives you the impression. (As is it did for me) But on deeper reading its more of an interesting deviation and a good heads up not to expect normal weather patterns.
How so? I read the entire page and it's just rational and level-headed predictions made using the information at hand.