PredictionBook: a hidden gem I just discovered(predictionbook.com)

PredictionBook: a hidden gem I just discovered

http://predictionbook.com/

1 comments

Too bad there's so much spam in there, along the lines of "I predict that this week I will go to the gym". Should be moderated more intensely to make it more interesting.

ivank15 lat temu

The short-term personal predictions you mention are very useful (at least for the person making them), because you can use them to calibrate yourself faster. (If you want to get better at predicting, waiting 10 years for a 2021 prediction doesn't help as much.) It can also be fun to put estimates on other people's personal predictions based on their historical underconfidence/overconfidence.

It has been suggested that these personal predictions should be in a separate category, and that might happen.

Also, these articles on PB might be of interest:

http://lesswrong.com/lw/7z9/1001_predictionbook_nights/

http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8dx/predictionbook_a_sh...