Startup that Predicts Success of Other Startups(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
Startup that Predicts Success of Other Startups
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/18/technology/18vc.html?ex=1360990800&en=b4de6ef1f784e0b7&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all
17 comments
Silly idea:
1. take every email exchange you've had with past YC companies whose outcomes are now known. Good=bought, IPO, etc., Bad=no longer exists (with exceptions for folks like Kiko?)
2. train a bayesian filter on the set
3. Apply to the rest with as yet unknown outcomes
4. Publish the results :D
1. take every email exchange you've had with past YC companies whose outcomes are now known. Good=bought, IPO, etc., Bad=no longer exists (with exceptions for folks like Kiko?)
2. train a bayesian filter on the set
3. Apply to the rest with as yet unknown outcomes
4. Publish the results :D
We do plan to try this with the applications one day. I'm not super optimistic, but it's worth trying.
What about a futures market that offers non-voting shares in startups (or Vegas-style wagers)? Startups relevant to the traded instruments can accrue some percentage of the option price. This gives you predictive power and funding. There must be some major pitfalls that I can think of, other than startups deliberately going belly up to cash out negative wagers :)
One aspect of Ycombinator is, I guess, that of a prediction market with people trading in early attention and uptake.
They'd be de facto public. The SEC wouldn't like it.
“Give us some information, and we’ll give you some idea of what the company will be worth in five years”
Which makes me think have they run the software on their own company? But it makes for interesting reading. A quick look around it appears to be positioning itself as doing all things to all parties:
- dating site for startups & engineers
- business reporting (analysts) for VC's
- euro-style-facebook for engineers & entrepreneurs
"... We provide business competition, event, networking and mailing list functionality for real-world groups that support startup communities. For investors, we're building technology to help inform their decisions. ..." [0]
Interesting to see Harj [1] there (with a low id) and ycombinator listed as a Startup but not a direct competitor. [1] Is uNoodle trying to do too much at once? There is another problem with this approach. Startups make new things using Ideas so new that historical data points are no real predictors of success. So how predict such Startups are going to succeed?
Make no mistake, though. The real target for these guys is to set themselves up as middle men for VCs. Mini-blood suckers.
[0] http://younoodle.com/about.php
[1] Not very surprising due to the number of Oxford & Entrepreneur alumni ~ http://younoodle.com/profile.php?id=23
[2] http://younoodle.com/group.php?id=74
Which makes me think have they run the software on their own company? But it makes for interesting reading. A quick look around it appears to be positioning itself as doing all things to all parties:
- dating site for startups & engineers
- business reporting (analysts) for VC's
- euro-style-facebook for engineers & entrepreneurs
"... We provide business competition, event, networking and mailing list functionality for real-world groups that support startup communities. For investors, we're building technology to help inform their decisions. ..." [0]
Interesting to see Harj [1] there (with a low id) and ycombinator listed as a Startup but not a direct competitor. [1] Is uNoodle trying to do too much at once? There is another problem with this approach. Startups make new things using Ideas so new that historical data points are no real predictors of success. So how predict such Startups are going to succeed?
Make no mistake, though. The real target for these guys is to set themselves up as middle men for VCs. Mini-blood suckers.
[0] http://younoodle.com/about.php
[1] Not very surprising due to the number of Oxford & Entrepreneur alumni ~ http://younoodle.com/profile.php?id=23
[2] http://younoodle.com/group.php?id=74
"If it says we’ll fail, and it’s right, that’s something of a paradox"
It is a paradox only if you assume that the quality of the product makes or breaks a company (not to mention their "AI" could be right only accidentally, in this particular case). It is weird that they believe that, given that "their algorithm uses sophisticated modeling pertaining to how social capital and networks can affect an organization’s performance".
It's an entertaining idea, but I doubt how they got to score such a PR hit with no substance whatsoever.
It is a paradox only if you assume that the quality of the product makes or breaks a company (not to mention their "AI" could be right only accidentally, in this particular case). It is weird that they believe that, given that "their algorithm uses sophisticated modeling pertaining to how social capital and networks can affect an organization’s performance".
It's an entertaining idea, but I doubt how they got to score such a PR hit with no substance whatsoever.
Good point. The product may be a success, while the company as a whole is a dog. If their product works as well as it should, they should be able to use it in reverse to tweak startups according to what the box says will increase their chances.
Hmm. I see a world where VCs and other investors use "the box" to pick the companies they invest in. I also see a world where startups use "the box" to adjust their companies "box score" to present to investors. In the end, "the box" may be a self-fulfilling AI system.
Hmm. I see a world where VCs and other investors use "the box" to pick the companies they invest in. I also see a world where startups use "the box" to adjust their companies "box score" to present to investors. In the end, "the box" may be a self-fulfilling AI system.
This looks like a social network for entrepreneurs, many of which lack programming ability and are seeking junior people who can implement the technical details of their vision.
Coders: don't be fleeced of your valuable skills. If these people had good connections, foresight, understood technology or valued programming then they wouldn't "Need someone with coding skills" ( http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=989 ), be "on the lookout for web design jobs" ( http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=16 ) or "have leet skillz" ( http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=4 ). That's just the founders' alumni ( http://www.younoodle.com/group.php?id=2 ).
Coders: don't be fleeced of your valuable skills. If these people had good connections, foresight, understood technology or valued programming then they wouldn't "Need someone with coding skills" ( http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=989 ), be "on the lookout for web design jobs" ( http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=16 ) or "have leet skillz" ( http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=4 ). That's just the founders' alumni ( http://www.younoodle.com/group.php?id=2 ).
the first guy is currently learning rails in order to make a start on his first startup, but appreciates that ultimately he 's gonna be rather disadvantaged trying to code something complex with no experience.
the second guy is not "on the lookout for web design jobs", he wants to find people that are cuz he has too many people asking him if he knows anyone that can do it.
the third guy was joking, i assume. he co-founded the site, after all..
the second guy is not "on the lookout for web design jobs", he wants to find people that are cuz he has too many people asking him if he knows anyone that can do it.
the third guy was joking, i assume. he co-founded the site, after all..
hmm, if this was true then why do you see members like http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=288 (Founder of HotorNot)
http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=557 (Partner in Founders Fund)
http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=11 (CTO of Yelp)
http://www.younoodle.com/profile.php?id=455 (CTO of Mochi Media & contributor to pylons)
Do these guys fall under the 'entrepreneurs, who lack programming ability who are seeking..."?
Do these guys fall under the 'entrepreneurs, who lack programming ability who are seeking..."?
Hey! Quote fairly. "many of which lack programming ability".
“Give us some information, and we’ll give you some idea of what the company will be worth in five years”
Ridiculous. One of the silliest things I've ever read in NYTimes. Kedrosky was being way too kind on them.
As for their algorithm, it's probably along the lines of how connected you are on their site.
How did they score funding from Max Levchin? One of the cofounders worked at Slide. http://younoodle.com/about.php So I doubt it's due to their amazing AI alone.
It's just a social network, folks. You can make your own on Ning or Facebook.
A better predictor would probably be someone's comments here on N.YC.
Ridiculous. One of the silliest things I've ever read in NYTimes. Kedrosky was being way too kind on them.
As for their algorithm, it's probably along the lines of how connected you are on their site.
How did they score funding from Max Levchin? One of the cofounders worked at Slide. http://younoodle.com/about.php So I doubt it's due to their amazing AI alone.
It's just a social network, folks. You can make your own on Ning or Facebook.
A better predictor would probably be someone's comments here on N.YC.
If they just predict every start-up to fail, statistically, they would be 90%+ accurate :P
Predicting the success of a start up is probably just as hard as predicting where the market is going to go tomorrow (if not harder). There are too many variables in play. I think this is just a PR stunt; it definitely created enough buzz!
Predicting the success of a start up is probably just as hard as predicting where the market is going to go tomorrow (if not harder). There are too many variables in play. I think this is just a PR stunt; it definitely created enough buzz!
Funny =) Article says 90% aren't home runs - I'm curious: what's the expected rate of profitable exits (non-loss exits)? Is there enough activity in the vc-backed space / volume in the startup space to classify investments in tech startups on a mutual fund-like scale of risk vs growth expectation or is everyone, to massively oversimplify it, playing roulette hoping for another google?
I read that 1 out of 10 VC-funded start up succeeds, on average. I am assuming "succeed" means profitable exit.
Activity wise, there certainly are enough data to pull a reasonable sample size to create a model. However, the tricky part is to identify the right variables. In my opinion, unlike the stock market, the variables to start-up success is much difficult to quantify. Would love to see their theory behind their model though!
Activity wise, there certainly are enough data to pull a reasonable sample size to create a model. However, the tricky part is to identify the right variables. In my opinion, unlike the stock market, the variables to start-up success is much difficult to quantify. Would love to see their theory behind their model though!
Look at that pile of uneaten dogfood!
I think their PR firm is the real news! Getting them on the nytimes homepage. bestpr.net is them.
“So far, we haven’t run ourselves through it,”
Then why should anyone else?
Then why should anyone else?
They really lost me with this claim.
I have a hard time believing that anyone that would build such a thing could resist running it on themselves.
I don't know these guys, but if it were me:
Run software on self. It says I'm going to fail. There's a bug in the software! Tweak, tweak. Run software on self. It says I'm going to fail. There's a bug in the software! Tweak, tweak...
I have a hard time believing that anyone that would build such a thing could resist running it on themselves.
I don't know these guys, but if it were me:
Run software on self. It says I'm going to fail. There's a bug in the software! Tweak, tweak. Run software on self. It says I'm going to fail. There's a bug in the software! Tweak, tweak...
At best, they'll have 20/20 hindsight. These guys haven't been to the School of Hard Knocks yet!
Sounds very bogus.
Its as bogus (or not) as you believe statistical machine learning is.
There are plenty of things that are not bogus at all, but are very bogus for given applications.
ummm, they have seed funding? Amazing! If there is one thing I know its that you can't predict what passion can and will accomplish. I've been coaching gymnastics for over 20 years and I've come to realize that people with heart can and do beat out the most talented, accomplished, educated... "sure winners" time after time. If they've found a way to predict talent and passion I'd love to see it. And of course if your team "gels" - the whole can be much more than the sum of the parts. I'll try to keep an open mind but just look at the Superbowl - who won... And if its possible to predict the success of a business - they really wouldn't need startup funding - they could just play the stock market. p.s. - if this is a simple case of marketing/PR - Good Job Guys...
if this worked why make it public and not use it for them selves?
doesn't everyone know failure feed success? So them problem is more how to increase your chance of success, not tell you Yes, No if you will succeed
doesn't everyone know failure feed success? So them problem is more how to increase your chance of success, not tell you Yes, No if you will succeed
Ok, so they're trying to be like a hedge fund for startup companies.
With what data are they building their models?
With what data are they building their models?
Something like this could be a self fulfilling prophecy. Then the momentum would just build.
Can someone with a login please copy the contents of the article?
Get your own login. NYT is free & doesn't spam you.
user: RasberryIce
pass: abcdefgh
for future reference: bugmenot.com
for future reference: bugmenot.com
[deleted](1)
the AI thing is really good linkbait im amazed so few people spot it for what it is
What makes the problem more complicated still is, founders can change. E.g. when we meet someone who seems smart and energetic but a bit timid about starting a company, we have to ask ourselves if the guy's intrinsically timid, or just put off by the weirdness of the idea, like we were before we started Viaweb.