VFX is 250K for 5 shots. Total VFX budget is 500K. And total post production is 10 Mil. Or ~14% of the whole budget. These days I bet it's probably double or triple that.
There is a diff between extinction and stagnation.
Wall St wasn't bailing on Netflix shares in 2022 cuz they thought Netflix would turn into Napster. When subscriber numbers don't grow it's a signal of reaching the max number of subscribers on the planet who can afford to pay monthly for content
Netflix execs for years had been braying about how the internet has billions upon trillions of people. But if your subscriber counts start strugling to increase once it reaches 250 mil that's a sign of hitting people who don't have cash left in the pocket. After that peak is reached it doesn't matter how superior your tech stack or business strategy is to the competition.
It's sort of like AT&T. No one believes AT&T is going to shutdown and no one believes AT&T is going to find new customers. Cuz they have already captured those who can pay.
Growth investors will go look for other shares to buy.
More like an overwhelmed super power drowning in the info tsunami, confused and loosing its collective mind. With no architecture in sight to reduce the info overload just increase it.
It depends how fucked up the rest of the world gets. As long as the rest are blundering about, killing each other, energy/trade flows keep getting disrupted the US can coast. The time to start sweating is when there is peace and China, India et al start realizing they don't need the US for too much. That's when the party ends.
Not really. AI has lot of kinks to work out. So hiring is happening on that front. Lot of other factors caused over hiring and correction - covid - central banks lowering and raising interest rates - govts increasing/decreasing spending - wars - china/russia disconnection etc
Finance innovation has outpaced technical and creative innovation. So most companies are dominated by financial engineering.
Any firm with offices located across the world are making cash just moving it around faster than you can make it with a product. And profitably. Taking advantage of exchange rates, interest rates, tax rates, subsidy, tariff differences etc etc is a more sophisticated process these days than anything you see in a factory.
The chimp troupe hasn't su4vived as long as it has, with out discovering a whole bunch of tricks to prevent Schismogenesis. We do it unconsciously. Next gen will do it consciously.
Trump or whichever panderer will get the like/view/clicks anyways
Since platforms signal to everyone popularity or engagement = quality. And no one is proposing anything better. As content/noise explodes with everyone broadcasting, the pressure will keep growing for mechanisms that generate signals of quality. If the mechanisms are poor, random and chaotic things will keep Emerging out of these systems.
Microtargeting is an added bonus for the attention seekers and panderers. You can regulate micro targetting and it won't reduce the things that get propped up by the algos.
There is a reason radio spectrum is regulated. If everyone broadcasts without any coordination all you get is massive noises where no one can hear anything anyone else is saying. And that's pretty much what's happening now. Mechanisms to increase signal and reduce noise are half baked.
More accurate to say FB and any platform that uses Like/View/Follower/Click counts as a Signal of High Quality to the entire population automatically has no control over what emerges.
People have been talking about this for 15+ years now, without proposing an alternate Signal of Quality.
It's probably not possible if you give everyone, as social media did, the ability to Broadcast to the whole planet. For free.
No one had this ability in the past. You had to buy spectrum or a news paper or TV studio or satellites etc.
So we have everyone broadcasting contributing massive noise and a highly unreliable mechanism to Signal quality.
We can crucify Zuck but it won't change the fact no one is proposing alternate info flow architecture for the net.
Dont worry about the macro trends. Its a distraction. Just move to where ever the cash is. The cash is always moving. Like water searching for level. This is what the average tech worker from the rest of the world has done to survive. Moving to South Korea or Dubai is better than driving for Uber.
Thanks will check it out. But these books are usually overloaded with the creative and tech side of the struggle and gloss over where the cash comes from and how it's kept flowing to keep the lights on.
Maybe I am watching too many series on drug lords but Game studios feel like money laundering operations. How do you even give a group 100-200 mil and say ok go make something for 3 years or whatever with no guarantee it will work?