Eric Rosenfeld Talking LTCM, Ten Years Laterpaul.kedrosky.com9 points·by john7·17 jaar geleden·1 comments
john7·16 jaar geleden·discussNo, Bayesian decision theory does not allow you to reason in that way.Suppose the amounts in the envelopes are A and B. A Bayesian would say:Prob(I have A) = 1/2 and Prob(I have B) = 1/2The expected gain from switching is:Prob(I have A)x(what I'd gain from switching = B-A) + Prob(I have B)x(what I'd gain from switching = A-B)which is: 1/2 x (B-A) + 1/2 x (A-B) = 0
john7·16 jaar geleden·discussWhy not to read more books:http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/schopenhauer/arthur/lit/chap...
john7·17 jaar geleden·discussHaving someone else do my laundry for about a dollar a pound. No more buying detergent, waiting around, having to find change if you don't have your own washer/dryer, loading/unloading, folding, etc.