"In 1839 [...] the United States had already defeated Britain’s navy in two wars"
This statement is wrong and trivially falsifiable. Perhaps the author meant that the U.S. had by that point won some naval battles against the British?
Backup snapshots of what though? The defects aren’t being introduced through code changes, they are inherent in the model and its tooling. If you’re using general models, there’s very little you can do beyond prompt engineering (which won’t be able to fix all the bugs).
If you were using your own model you could maybe try to retrain/finetune the issues away given a new dataset and different techniques? But at that point you’re just transmuting a difficult problem into a damn near impossible one?
LLMs can be miraculous and inappropriate at the same time. They are not the terminal technology for all computation.
Non-deterministic behaviour doesn’t help when trying to reason about the system. But you could in theory eliminate the non-determinism for a given input, and yet still be stuck with something unpredictable, in the sense that you can’t predict what new input will cause.
Whereas that sort of evaluation is trivial with code (even if at times program execution is non-deterministic), because its mechanics are explainable. Things like only testing boundary conditions hinge on this property, but completely fall apart if it’s all probabilistic.
Maybe explainable AI can help here, but to be honest I have no idea what the state of the art is for that.
The fatal problem with LLM-as-runtime-club isn’t performance. It’s ops (especially security).
When the god rectangle fails, there is literally nobody on earth who can even diagnose the problem, let alone fix it. Reasoning about the system is effectively impossible. And the vulnerability of the system is almost limitless, since it’s possible to coax LLMs into approximations of anything you like: from an admin dashboard to a sentient potato.
“zero UI consistency” is probably the least of your worries, but object permanence is kind of fundamental to how humans perceive the world. Being able to maintain that illusion is table stakes.
I use em dashes—chiefly to express parenthetical thoughts—all the time. Sadly, there’s no foolproof system for identifying machine-generated text. Happily, it means one less thing to worry about.
It’s a reasonable hypothesis, but you’d need to experiment to validate it. It’s easy to imagine how prolonged exposure to bed rest or microgravity may trigger heart muscle remodelling in a way that intermittent bouts of lying down would not.
The really great thing about electric cars is that people are actually adopting them, in part because they are better than the machines they are replacing; therefore their environmental benefits can actually be realised.
If you think you have a real solution apart from the fact that nobody wants to adopt it, then what you actually have is a fantasy. It’s far easier to imagine a paradise than to construct one.
I would caution against using “Qui bono” as a heuristic; you will end up believing in a lot of BS using that as a tool. It can only ever be a piece of evidence alongside others. I benefit immensely from sunlight, but that doesn’t mean I am implicated in the rotation of the earth.
In this particular case, there are many natural experiments we can conceive of that demonstrate why fasting alone is highly unlikely to significantly impede “normal” aging in humans in the lab. That’s before we get to how effective it could actually be as a treatment.
And while we’re following the money, there are many powerful entities that would love a “free” aging cure to juice their demographics…so why don’t they use it?
Sorry dang. I appreciate the work you do keeping HN on point, so you have my personal thanks for that. I suspect the job is getting harder and I don’t want to contribute to the problem.
I’ve been flagged twice now in one day. I’m not sure if my comments have become less substantive over time, or if the world has. But after ten years of commenting on here, I think the time has come for me to find a new hobby.
I don’t really see this as a controversial statement. All countries are likely to face the issue of shrinking population this century, and they’re going to have to try all sorts of schemes to keep the wagon on the road.
When China faced a population explosion, it didn’t create a complex mix of incentives and marketing to nudge people into having smaller families: it outlawed larger families. It seems reasonable to suggest that is a policy lever they will reach for again in the face of another demographic crisis. What am I missing?
Yeah but we got a lot more stuff and experiences than single breadwinner households of the past. We’re not optimising for free time spent in material poverty.
This statement is wrong and trivially falsifiable. Perhaps the author meant that the U.S. had by that point won some naval battles against the British?