I hate all this biometric scanning on all sides. As an American it makes me not want to visit the EU to avoid being scanned, and I'd understand the other way too if an EU member was visiting the us.
In the US there have been notorious mistakes of using biometrics to falsely recognize an unknown criminal. Does this happen in the EU too?
It's probably too late but we should try to get rid of this.
How many years till it works and it's in service for regular missions? SpaceX says just a few more test flights hopefully, it's years later from earlier optimistic completion dates and they made progress of course, but it's not close.
I'd say 4-5 years. It's huge and impressive and has lots of development work left.
Tesla is another crazily overpriced stock but first my pointless take on spaceX.
(1) SpaceX has a huge number of restricted shares coming onto the market soon as this thread has discussed.
(2) SpaceX has incredible tech (reuse, internet, engines, scale, reliability), yet in the past week Japan demonstrated a rocket hovering and landing, and China launched a rocket to space and caught it/landed it. So SPCX tech is incredible, but China has basically done everything SpaceX has done except relaunch and launch reliably at scale.
Those aren't trivial things but I see within a couple of years there will be competitors doing what SpaceX has been doing. Matching the reliable launch will likely take longer. No one has anything like Starship and their fantastic engines, but that's not done yet. Let's not forget about upcoming space internet competitors. I put all this together and see they are crazily overvalued and still has potential to be do well too. I kept wanting to short it and short Tesla too, but Tesla has been stubbornly resisting me.
Tesla's PE is down to 357 at the moment. It has hovered around 400. Incredibly profitable and trustworthy (for non EVs) Toyota has a PE of 9.x. Nine! GM is 28, and Chinese companies are making the best EVs but more importantly have better battery and drivetrain tech in the field and faster charging. They are blocked from the US but apparently Canada will now allow them. Tesla doesn't have anything over them, including price. Tesla makes great cars, Musk is awful. I have an over 10 year old tesla and it is still a great car.
Tesla's future worth is because of meme stockness, optimus robots (which they still have been demoing with human remote control misleadingly), battery storage, xAI (eventually they'll do something worthwhile, right, more than illegal removing the clothes off people videos? at least they are making something off selling their extra inference capacity), and robotaxis.
robotaxi tech would cool if it worked, every few months Musk embarasses himself by announcing it's going nationwide by the end of the year or something similar that never happens. But is this going to make billions? Doubtful, and Waymo will be there to drive it down to not be that profitable. And waymo actually does 500k rides per week in 10 cities. Does tesla do 500 a week yet?
So Tesla is overvalued, and also, a miracle could occur and they could come up with software to make the robot do something useful - they are still overvalued even with that. They just don't have that great robot brain. Maybe LLMs will solve that eventually.
But tesla is at 350 PE, they need a reduction of about 15 times in stock price to get to a reasonable PE of 23. Their sales went up last quarter but they were behind their all time high sales and Musk destroyed their reputation. Let's say tesla is only 10x overpriced based on PE. So they should lose 90% of their stock price!? It's a meme stock but it should go down.
I know someone whose garmin watch refused to charge after a few years, not sure if it was caused by sweat. Mine is starting to get wonky after a few years. I keep worrying I'll plug in some time and it will stop. anec-data is not that reliable of course.
I didn't but that's the case. More likely there was a limited chance to evaluate the issue and something like they had a limited time launch window, no replacement ready and it tested good. "Just put a little butter on it, it's fine".
Yep, I was thinking the exact same thing. Write something, get your llm to rewrite it to "standard Steve Yegge form" to hide your identity. If we all do the same we are probably safe.
I am strongly against asking an llm to weigh the pros and cons of important life decisions. Flipping a coin or throwing bones on the floor is just as good at making an important decision. No one can know, you can't predict the future. Do what excites you. I was so excited to go to grad school, you find your people. Maybe you love it, maybe you get tired of it. That was a good decision for me, but could be the worst for someone else.
Both experiences would help your future employment. I'd encourage grad school unless the Amazon job was something particularly special and perfect. Amazon might be willing to defer your job for a year while you get a MS.
Will your grad school work be done in a year resulting in the equivalent of an MS, or are you looking at a phd or longer timeframe? Shorter timeframe is better, then you can torture yourself again by looking for a job after the MS. Are you studying something you like, is it relevant with today's AI craze or not? Do you feel excited and passionate, do you care about getting an MS?
No one can predict what the job market will be in a year, will we be in a widespread depression? More likely it will be like today, economy ok but unclear future as the world muddles through. Even if you go there now, amazon could lay you and your division off and you'd be scrambling for a new job to stay in the US (presuming you aren't a us citizen). Or maybe your grad school work would make you more employable (or you work on something at amazon that is hot), depends on the area.
I was excited to go to grad school and was glad I went because my undergrad wasn't an especially great school. Then I went to big tech after grad school years passed. If you are excited about grad school and it's not a many year commitment then I'd go that. If you are hot to come to Seattle or where-ever, and you are paid enough to live there, and/or Amazon offers you a job working in something that excites you then do that. No easy answers in life.
This feels like a wishy-washy answer but everyone has to decide for themselves.
This is a clever trick to get you to enter your real name. ;-) I entered mine, I was on the page kind of, there was some kind of exaggeration of me as the last one. I was surprised someone else in my family who is a kind of actual famous person was not found. It seems to have a lot of recency bias based on that.
I was expecting to find out that lots of men killed in the war led to many more women working after the war, and that's what could be interpreted/guessed from these pictures.
But looking at wikipedia, it's complicated. A lot of different estimates of deaths. I think a lot more men died in ww2 in the Soviet military, from Wikipedia, about 20 million men (see total war deaths by age group table) and 6 million women. The official counts of the dead were supposed to have underreported deaths by a lot.
Looking at different estimates in wiki, about 10 million military dead and almost 20 million civilian dead.
We'll figure out how to make it much much cheaper to produce the compute needs we have today with tokens. The question is will how many new use cases arise that need much more - clearly we aren't meeting needs (price stays high) but how much more do we need, 100x, 10x, 10^6 x?
Look at electricity, the world of 1900 could not create enough electricity or even conceive of how to add enough to meet 1950s needs. But we made it incredibly cheaper to produce, but also created a lot more, and boy do we have so much more use of electricity now. And it's not that expensive for a human to pay for their needs (not free, its not cheap for poor people but it's still gotten cheaper).
If you don’t count people of different races, nationalities, origin, then you can pretend there are only white people. You don’t know if there are any marginalized people gathered in say an extremely poor neighborhood, because they are all people.
I see it as a way to pretend there’s just white people.
Space data centers need years of time to design, build, and deploy, 5-10 at least, and that's after they solve their multiple very difficult or impossible problems. How will they cool them? There are just simple ideas like giant structures to radiate the heat away, but you say you need to put lots of mass in orbit?
It must have lots of leaks, threat vectors, ways to run arbitrary code, because web browsers have lots of complex capabilities and the largest and most advanced software companies in the world keep finding problems in their own systems.
occasionally a major site that I subscribe to blocks me with cloud flare. It was either nyt or a similar news site I subscribe to. I couldn't even get to any 'give me feedback' page because cloudflare was blocking. When cloudflare decides to block you, it should give you a contact page for that website so you can send them an email or tell them.
I work around this by using my phone connection with phone chrome.