Tesla is heading into multi-billion-dollar iceberg of its own making(electrek.co)
electrek.co
Tesla is heading into multi-billion-dollar iceberg of its own making
https://electrek.co/2025/10/20/tesla-heading-into-multi-billion-dollar-iceberg-of-own-making/
341 comments
This is kinda a hilarious coincidence, because I just watched a podcast with Andrej Karpathy, the guy who was running their autopilot program back when the sage "fully autonomous in one year" predictions kicked of their 15+ year long run (and counting).
These days he's moved on to predicting 10 years for AGI and is, I shit you not, citing his 15 year track record of making accurate predictions (timestamped link below if you want have a laugh).
https://youtu.be/lXUZvyajciY?si=3PyVM476W6k3n-DR&t=181
These days he's moved on to predicting 10 years for AGI and is, I shit you not, citing his 15 year track record of making accurate predictions (timestamped link below if you want have a laugh).
https://youtu.be/lXUZvyajciY?si=3PyVM476W6k3n-DR&t=181
Just to balance this article.
HW3 owner. Car drives really good on FSD as for 5 years old car , it’s not even close to anything that was on the market , I still receive updates .
Any short trip or long trip when I’m lazy I simply turn it on, and it works perfect 99% of the time. Both highway and local roads.
When I’m in the gym and it’s raining or snowing , I press the button and car actually comes to me. It used to be broken now they fixed it. It recently also start to park itself after fsd route is over. How awesome is that for a 5 years old car ??
Why should I be upset ? Do I want free hardware ? Sure . Is $7k I paid a fair price ? Yeah . go check modern offering from any other company . They charge you comparable price for way less functionality. In the world where bmw tries to charge you every month for heated seats , I think it’s a fair price.
Oh yeah , I live in New York , I use fsd almost daily for 5+ years . In this very busy setup 0 accidents . Which is rare even for an experienced human driver.
HW3 owner. Car drives really good on FSD as for 5 years old car , it’s not even close to anything that was on the market , I still receive updates .
Any short trip or long trip when I’m lazy I simply turn it on, and it works perfect 99% of the time. Both highway and local roads.
When I’m in the gym and it’s raining or snowing , I press the button and car actually comes to me. It used to be broken now they fixed it. It recently also start to park itself after fsd route is over. How awesome is that for a 5 years old car ??
Why should I be upset ? Do I want free hardware ? Sure . Is $7k I paid a fair price ? Yeah . go check modern offering from any other company . They charge you comparable price for way less functionality. In the world where bmw tries to charge you every month for heated seats , I think it’s a fair price.
Oh yeah , I live in New York , I use fsd almost daily for 5+ years . In this very busy setup 0 accidents . Which is rare even for an experienced human driver.
AI and focus on Self-Driving has been the biggest failure and blindspot for Tesla (Musk). So much of the strategy evolved around that, its a big reason why I pulled my investment. I invested because they were growing fast, had a pretty good product and had very high marin despite massive investment charging, service and verticial integration. And their next generation product should have been a reusable platform that could delvier a basic van, basic suv and basic pickup, all from the same assembly line. After that focus on a cheaper smaller electric car.
I thought it made a lot of sense to focus on a well functioning Level 2 System that they owned themselves. Make highway driving, start-stop traffic and such easy as possible. Make the car helpful and easy to use.
But then Tesla started focusing on making complex navigation and remote summening a feature when tons of basic stuff didn't work very well yet. For example, automated parking, 360 view, detection of features like shadows and such. Why not focus specifically on the actual dangrous problem looking around blind corners and installing a sensor suit that can help humans with the problem.
Promsing Full Self Driving with existing hardware and selling that when they had not proven that it could work was idioitc and I always felt like it was a liability. They should have been sued over this a while ago.
Initially Tesla messaging was save, nice software, fun to drive and green, and it then became half baked software, don't drive it and risky.
When it came out that Musk said they should build a cheaper next generation car, because Self-Driving would collapse the car market by 80% I knew the company had completely lost its way.
I thought it made a lot of sense to focus on a well functioning Level 2 System that they owned themselves. Make highway driving, start-stop traffic and such easy as possible. Make the car helpful and easy to use.
But then Tesla started focusing on making complex navigation and remote summening a feature when tons of basic stuff didn't work very well yet. For example, automated parking, 360 view, detection of features like shadows and such. Why not focus specifically on the actual dangrous problem looking around blind corners and installing a sensor suit that can help humans with the problem.
Promsing Full Self Driving with existing hardware and selling that when they had not proven that it could work was idioitc and I always felt like it was a liability. They should have been sued over this a while ago.
Initially Tesla messaging was save, nice software, fun to drive and green, and it then became half baked software, don't drive it and risky.
When it came out that Musk said they should build a cheaper next generation car, because Self-Driving would collapse the car market by 80% I knew the company had completely lost its way.
> It’s unclear why would Tesla sell a subcription to something that doesn’t even exist
No I’d say it’s pretty clear
No I’d say it’s pretty clear
I feel like Tesla would have been significantly more competitive with the non-EV market if they had gone in a completely opposite direction with regard to fancy technology.
Give me a boring ass 90s control layout with the electric drive train and I'm much more interested. Make the car kind of ugly too. On purpose. I don't need a GPU farm inside my car. I'm not running a robotic taxi company. I just want to go get some groceries.
I've worked on cars long enough to realize I don't want a chip using a leading edge semiconductor node in my vehicle somewhere. I live in a pretty nasty climate. A car sitting in a Texas parking lot in July will get to temperatures that the engineers probably didn't think possible. There's always something that starts to break once you cross into that 150F temperature level. I want semiconductors that were engineered to run in the basement of hell 24/7/365. 28nm and thicker sizes. I don't want 3nm gates in my car. There's no way these chips would last 10 years.
Give me a boring ass 90s control layout with the electric drive train and I'm much more interested. Make the car kind of ugly too. On purpose. I don't need a GPU farm inside my car. I'm not running a robotic taxi company. I just want to go get some groceries.
I've worked on cars long enough to realize I don't want a chip using a leading edge semiconductor node in my vehicle somewhere. I live in a pretty nasty climate. A car sitting in a Texas parking lot in July will get to temperatures that the engineers probably didn't think possible. There's always something that starts to break once you cross into that 150F temperature level. I want semiconductors that were engineered to run in the basement of hell 24/7/365. 28nm and thicker sizes. I don't want 3nm gates in my car. There's no way these chips would last 10 years.
Somebody sued Tesla at a UK consumer court because FSD was advertised as delivering fully automatic driving soon. It was based on Consumer Rights Act, which states that goods must match their advertised description. Tesla ended up paying back the full purchase price + interest and legal fees in return for him dropping the case. It seems Tesla lawyers know they are in a bad position with this. The company has just promised way to much to early. Which was totally unnecessary imo. The car were pretty cool products and would have sold well if they just called it driver assist system or something similar.
I have zero sympathy for any Tesla owner that believed anything from Elon's mouth. That's your own fault.
Tesla has shown time and time again to be hostile to its own customers in a variety of ways.
Tesla has shown time and time again to be hostile to its own customers in a variety of ways.
Not to engage with the hyperbole angle here, but just to call out the spin in the headling:
Tesla has shipped 8 million cars total. Maybe 70% of them (including mine) have the HW3 computer that the article claims won't do FSD. Of those, maybe 10% (I'm one) actually purchased the FSD product[1]. So figure like 500k cars actually affected.
If the cost to Tesla of a HW4 upgrade is less than $2000 (it's likely *much* less, this isn't particularly fancy hardware and it requires no sensor or other upgrades, it's just a board swap), then we're looking at "sub-billion" and not "multi-billion-dollar iceberg".
It's a $1.4T company. If everything falls out like Electrek[2] expects, it might rise to "Really very notable recall". Hardly a Titanic collision.
[1] As opposed to renting it, for which there would be no remedy. You can't sue for a rental product that you claim doesn't do what you wanted. If you didn't want it, why did you pay for it? At most you get the first month's fee refunded.
[2] Electrek has been expecting Tesla to fail for like seven years now.
Tesla has shipped 8 million cars total. Maybe 70% of them (including mine) have the HW3 computer that the article claims won't do FSD. Of those, maybe 10% (I'm one) actually purchased the FSD product[1]. So figure like 500k cars actually affected.
If the cost to Tesla of a HW4 upgrade is less than $2000 (it's likely *much* less, this isn't particularly fancy hardware and it requires no sensor or other upgrades, it's just a board swap), then we're looking at "sub-billion" and not "multi-billion-dollar iceberg".
It's a $1.4T company. If everything falls out like Electrek[2] expects, it might rise to "Really very notable recall". Hardly a Titanic collision.
[1] As opposed to renting it, for which there would be no remedy. You can't sue for a rental product that you claim doesn't do what you wanted. If you didn't want it, why did you pay for it? At most you get the first month's fee refunded.
[2] Electrek has been expecting Tesla to fail for like seven years now.
The time to address this productively was when “Autopilot” and “Full Self Driving” were announced. Tesla and Musk have been misleading customers for a decade now, and the FTC and other regulatory agencies have done next to nothing about it. I’m not expecting a serious crackdown at this point, but I’m also constantly shocked at the folks who still buy into this fever dream.
I'm a 2024 Tesla Model 3 owner and my car drives me everywhere nearly flawlessly, thousands of miles. For all this I pay something like $500 per month for the lease, including FSD.
It's a miracle product to me, and the comments here about Tesla (not the ones about the story, which are reasonable!) are just so far removed from my personal experience with the product.
It's a miracle product to me, and the comments here about Tesla (not the ones about the story, which are reasonable!) are just so far removed from my personal experience with the product.
As expected, based on it's actions and promises, over it's history.
There is a good choice of EVs from various manufacturers.
There is a good choice of EVs from various manufacturers.
For a minute I thought this is an moon-shot to stop climate change by building real icebergs.
I really hope hacker news does not also turn into a Bash-Elon-Club like electrek.co (used to love that blog). But this comment section does not bode well.
Meanwhile in Europe, they've been selling FSD forever, and (until very recently?) there has been virtually no difference from the basic Autopilot package - and not the shiny FSD beta that we see on YouTube from other countries.
I had a company Tesla (with "FSD") for a couple of years, and as much as a liked the car, I've been wondering when the European class action case will start...
I had a company Tesla (with "FSD") for a couple of years, and as much as a liked the car, I've been wondering when the European class action case will start...
> Tesla needs to offer all HW3 owners a $5,000 loyalty discount, that goes on top of all other incentive program, when upgrading to a new car.
Is it just me, or does that seem backwards? If I purchased something with a specific feature, or promised future feature, and 5 years later it's still nowhere to be seen, I don't want a coupon for "my next purchase", why would I buy from the same place after they already lied to me before? The only acceptable solution would be to get back the extra money spent for that feature.
Is it just me, or does that seem backwards? If I purchased something with a specific feature, or promised future feature, and 5 years later it's still nowhere to be seen, I don't want a coupon for "my next purchase", why would I buy from the same place after they already lied to me before? The only acceptable solution would be to get back the extra money spent for that feature.
It’s shocking that this hasn’t happened sooner. At its height the cost was over $10k and at that point Tesla had all but doomed its cars by removing sensors they deemed unnecessary.
It’s also appropriate to point out: Waymo and others have been doing this for years. Tesla is a fraud.
It’s also appropriate to point out: Waymo and others have been doing this for years. Tesla is a fraud.
They really should have just marketed the software "as-is" to whatever extent that is allowed by law. I guess they didn't because deployed automobile software is probably not allowed to be considered experimental.
Still, comms that framed it like: "This software purchase upgrades your car with state-of-the-art autonomy capabilities from our AI team, as we approach full self-driving" would have been more honest, still exciting to consumers, and avoided over-promising.
Still, comms that framed it like: "This software purchase upgrades your car with state-of-the-art autonomy capabilities from our AI team, as we approach full self-driving" would have been more honest, still exciting to consumers, and avoided over-promising.
The whole FSD promise was such a scam from the start (or self-delusion on Tesla’s part, if you want to be charitable) that it would be nice to see them feel real consequences from it.
I like Tesla but its def the new "never preorder ur game based on the latest viral video " vibe atm
Altman, Amodai and Musk seem to have no problem outright lying about the capabilities they have or the potential of what they're working on, in order to drum up hype. It sounds cool in the moment but it gets so old so fast. And with real costs in this case.
Are the cameras or other sensors different in HW4 vs. HW3? The compute unit might be quite easy to upgrade, but cameras probably aren't.
Electrek missed the boat
Tesla is now a robotics company, and their car business is now a rounding error of their future potential. Their robotaxi business is also not really important either.
See Tesla will now be building fully autonomous robots. This will allow Elon Stark to lock on to multi-trillion dollar revenues that are just around the corner once they dial in these last few bolts of the Optimus bot. Forget everything about the cars and the taxi. Those are outdated and irrelvant. Fill you head with visions of Tesla bots being everywhere all the time doing everything for you. By the end of 2026 there will be 100 million Tesla bots sold. So the stock is grossly undervalued. Go buy the stock please god buy the stock how the fuck is tesla ever going to fill the boots of a $1.5T company with collapsing revenue and the veil of empty promises slipping off.
Tesla is now a robotics company, and their car business is now a rounding error of their future potential. Their robotaxi business is also not really important either.
See Tesla will now be building fully autonomous robots. This will allow Elon Stark to lock on to multi-trillion dollar revenues that are just around the corner once they dial in these last few bolts of the Optimus bot. Forget everything about the cars and the taxi. Those are outdated and irrelvant. Fill you head with visions of Tesla bots being everywhere all the time doing everything for you. By the end of 2026 there will be 100 million Tesla bots sold. So the stock is grossly undervalued. Go buy the stock please god buy the stock how the fuck is tesla ever going to fill the boots of a $1.5T company with collapsing revenue and the veil of empty promises slipping off.
I would think the hw3 to hw4 retrofit would be easy. just swap out the FSD computer under the front and swap out the cameras. I'm sure they could make a kit that is compatible with the existing camera harnesses (if they are different). Also they would need to make a way to retrofit the bumper cam housing on older models.
If they offered this for sale for $8k including the FSD license for older hw3 teslas that don't have FSD it might offset some of the cost to bring up the people who already paid the $8k on HW3.
If they offered this for sale for $8k including the FSD license for older hw3 teslas that don't have FSD it might offset some of the cost to bring up the people who already paid the $8k on HW3.
> It’s unclear why would Tesla sell a subcription to something that doesn’t even exist, but it is not helping build confidence with customers.
Money
Money
My EU Car was produced in Germany, in May 2024, with HW3. Already largely obsolete.
Ok, so I imagine that the fine print of the $5k FSD addon has something like "This is a beta and may or may not delivered in full"
or something similar.
I can't imagine that they made it easy enough for someone to take them to court for non-delivery of FSD, which we knew wasn't going to be possible.
or something similar.
I can't imagine that they made it easy enough for someone to take them to court for non-delivery of FSD, which we knew wasn't going to be possible.
Good thing it's not a car company, so a reboot is easy.
As far as Wall Street is concerned, none of this really matters.
Tesla stock (P/E over 250) is priced as if Telsa is the largest auto manufacturer, the biggest robotaxi company, the dominant robot producer and the leading AI service provider.
Meanhile; back in reality, none of this is even close to being true.
Logic simply cannot explain it --- so the fallback is a conspiracy of some sort. One that Wall Street must have a stake in.
Tesla stock (P/E over 250) is priced as if Telsa is the largest auto manufacturer, the biggest robotaxi company, the dominant robot producer and the leading AI service provider.
Meanhile; back in reality, none of this is even close to being true.
Logic simply cannot explain it --- so the fallback is a conspiracy of some sort. One that Wall Street must have a stake in.
Pity that BYD is banned in this country, thanks to Biden, and now Turnip.
But as for Musk, I always thought something was absolutely not right with him. I thought of him as a pandering populist with feudalistic tendencies. And I lost what little credibility with him back in 2015/6 with him screaming from Twitter about the flooded cave rescuer was a pedophile.
I also remember him launching the first starlink SATs, without any permission. Flooded the LEO with thousands of space junk. I'm just waiting for a Kessler syndrome event.
And come to find out, he also defrauded customers on FSD on teslas.
Basically, stay as far away as you can from anything musk. It will come toppling down. And when it does, all the devices will come with it. (Think of when IoT companies shut down, and equipment is now landfill)
But as for Musk, I always thought something was absolutely not right with him. I thought of him as a pandering populist with feudalistic tendencies. And I lost what little credibility with him back in 2015/6 with him screaming from Twitter about the flooded cave rescuer was a pedophile.
I also remember him launching the first starlink SATs, without any permission. Flooded the LEO with thousands of space junk. I'm just waiting for a Kessler syndrome event.
And come to find out, he also defrauded customers on FSD on teslas.
Basically, stay as far away as you can from anything musk. It will come toppling down. And when it does, all the devices will come with it. (Think of when IoT companies shut down, and equipment is now landfill)
While this might sound like a lot”
It would add up to a lot of money for Tesla, but for customers? Some of these people paid $15.000 years ago for something that hasn’t been delivered, and now, they would be able to get $10,000 ‘back’, only if they commit to spending way more again, in the hope to eventually get what they bought years ago, or, more likely, in the hope of eventually being able to subscribe to get the features they already paid for years ago.