It's amazing how quickly Fable went from 'Game-changing model that needs to be banned' to 'Yeah it's alright, but OpenAI is also just as good and there are a couple of good open weight alternatives that are equivalent for almost everything'
The hype cycles are shortening, perhaps we really are reaching some kind of plateau this time (famous last words)
If you use the offline-only models (I use the Nvidia one and it's great) and put it in offline mode it is. I've used it for 6 months and haven't paid anything
Interesting, so point 2 means that a lot of the hardware being installed now won't be able to run the frontier models of 2029? How does that change the demand for compute/models in the future, I can imagine that even if OpenAI/Anthropic have a moat in 2029 there will be so much older hardware and such a hangover from that investment boom that there will be very little installed capacity that can run it
It's just much more thorough and spins up a lot of subagents to basically do a lot more E2E testing. Not necessarily smarter, imo you could get the same result with a lesser model by procedurally prompting, but a lot more compute and orchestration.
Fable feels like a slightly more advanced 4.5/4.6 (less verbose than 4.7 and 4.8) with more adversial work checking. And a lot more compute to be more thorough from the first prompt. I feel it would be possible to get pretty much the same results with 4.6 with enough back and forth iterations. It kind of makes sense to me that this is the 'magic' behind Mythos and its cyber capabilities too. Just a massive iterative loop and really going into a lot more detail on edge cases.
It feels to me like Fable is just a slightly more advanced Opus 4.8 (or 4.6?) but with this 'adversarial' self-challenging/checking of work and a more compute to really hunt down edge cases or to spin up many sub agents using lesser models. That's what makes it feel like a big jump, but I think the results wouldn't be so different if you manually challenged 4.6 with enough iterations of logs, screenshots, and follow up questions.
The hype cycles are shortening, perhaps we really are reaching some kind of plateau this time (famous last words)