NotAnEconomis23

2년 전discuss

Fertility and intelligence is only half of the picture. (an important piece, though) What about intelligence and life expectancy of the individual and of children? Also, what about other types of intelligence? IQ, EQ, etc? While very complicated, a multigenerational sampling with more information is really required. There is so much more to this picture, than a negative fertility correlation.

NotAnEconomis23

3년 전discuss

Agreed. Transitory inflation, lol.

NotAnEconomis23

3년 전discuss

Employment is a lagging indicator. Waiting until bank failures cause employment to crater is too little, too late.

I agree that many of the bank stocks are probably over valued. They're not going to rebound quickly.

The Fed can't control inflation. They can try to influence demand of goods and services by controlling interest rates, QE, etc. They cannot make up for the commodities supply deficiencies cause my Russia/Ukraine conflict. (Reduced supply of grains, oil, metals, etc.) Reduced supply also increases inflation.

We just had a run on the deposits of several banks. Next is a run on the stocks for the banks. (Financial institutions make up 7% of GDP) There are many institutions and retail investors who just received a message from Yellen and Powell that their investments are not safe. Even the big banks are falling. Migrating deposits to large banks will not stop the run on financial equities. It is already having a cascading effect on the broader market.

NotAnEconomis23

3년 전discuss

Go for it. How do you know if this is the bottom? It's catching a falling knife.

NotAnEconomis23

3년 전discuss

What the Fed isn't doing is assure the greater market that the fundamentals of why the banks failed will be fixed. The Fed screwed up by raising interest rates too quickly. Don't just assuring depositors that their money is safe, assure everyone that the money in their 401ks (which invest in banks) is also safe. Publicly come out and pause interest rates. Admit that there is a strong possibility of lowering interest rates in the short to medium term future. There are massive ripple effects of moving cash, and retirement accounts. The Fed MUST get off their high horse, admit they made mistakes, and be transparent about getting help from industry experts. Without eating humble pie, the Fed will capsize the economy.

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