China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html
2 comments
https://archive.ph/BwFJw
Why do both China and the US consider it to be a punishment of the counterparty to limit Chinese exports to the US?
"How dare you make it hard for us to sell stuff to you, we'll show you by making it even harder for ourselves to sell you stuff" feels weird.
I get details matter and make the difference, so my question is: what are those details?
"How dare you make it hard for us to sell stuff to you, we'll show you by making it even harder for ourselves to sell you stuff" feels weird.
I get details matter and make the difference, so my question is: what are those details?
While some details may matter (like strategic industries), they may also not matter because the bigger picture is which country will dominate global politics in the 21st century. China is on the rise while the US decided to get on the struggle bus
China is absolutely guaranteed to be the global hegemon going forward. The last week sealed it.
China has major liquidity and economic issues, as well as a demographics bomb, and their biggest market for the manufacturing that drives their economy just said "no thank you". They are not situated to replace the US. When the US is done gun-footing itself, we will still be in a better position going forward than China, although I agree we are probably going to have to accept a loss of hegemony.
China is the largest manufacturing hub on the planet and exports globally. At 14% or so the US is certainly their largest direct customer.
China has essentially stated it believes it can belt tighten and go forward with the rest of the world as customers longer than the US can go forward without direct imports from China, should the US eventually get its manufacturing back on track, so be it.
China has essentially stated it believes it can belt tighten and go forward with the rest of the world as customers longer than the US can go forward without direct imports from China, should the US eventually get its manufacturing back on track, so be it.
What does belt tightening look like? How many more highways to nowhere can they build to pump their GDP? Can they accept a 10% drop in exports? I doubt many could, especially the country most reliant on exports.
You underestimate the importance of imports as a lubricant to the service economy. Sure you don't need the next new gadget, but many service jobs depend on your wanting it.
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> my question is: what are those details?
Raw materials versus finished products.
Raw materials versus finished products.
Because it is a punishment for both sides.
Trade is not zero sum: both sides of a deal typically get something they want.
Conversely: cessation of trade prevents both sides getting what they want.
In this case the US wants to have their cake and eat it too: they require Chinese imports to continue, but they want to turn the faucet down to a trickle.
China needs the faucet on at full throughput, there is no practical difference to them between a trickle and “off”, so that’s their poker hand, and they’re playing it.
I think Trump’s team overestimated the importance of the US market to China, and they underestimated the impact on their own economy.
They don’t hold any cards right now, as they like to put it.
Trade is not zero sum: both sides of a deal typically get something they want.
Conversely: cessation of trade prevents both sides getting what they want.
In this case the US wants to have their cake and eat it too: they require Chinese imports to continue, but they want to turn the faucet down to a trickle.
China needs the faucet on at full throughput, there is no practical difference to them between a trickle and “off”, so that’s their poker hand, and they’re playing it.
I think Trump’s team overestimated the importance of the US market to China, and they underestimated the impact on their own economy.
They don’t hold any cards right now, as they like to put it.