European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies(wcd.copernicus.org)
wcd.copernicus.org
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/
9 comments
The issue with climate change is exactly that: change. Doesn't matter if it get colder, dryer, wetter, warmer than it used too. It is a huge undertaking to change the built environment to handle conditions that were once seen as exceptional. Houses, streets and waterways are normally replaced/adjusted on the scale of multiple decades or even centuries. Significant climate change is affecting areas everywhere on a single decade timescale. So infrastructure is now outdated much more quickly, and needs to be replaced/upgraded at a higher pace. This if hugely expensive and will lead to more waste and more emissions. And that is just for the built world on which we have a lot of influence. The natural world doesn't always have the ability to adjust; lots of habits are suffering and species are going extinct.
Sufficient impact to require rebuilding houses or other buildings on a single decade scale?
I cannot see that sort of rapid rebuilding anywhere I know. I live in a house that is about 60 years old. I have friends who live in houses centuries old. Not come across anyone who needs to change very much to cope with climate change, apart from things to reduce emissions (mostly installing heat pumps can be difficult)
The built environment also needs to handle a lot of variation anyway.
I can certainly see a drastic impact in some places: low lying land (I would be very worried if I was Dutch or Maldivian. I might be quite worried if I was living in Norfolk) , but its not everywhere.
I cannot see that sort of rapid rebuilding anywhere I know. I live in a house that is about 60 years old. I have friends who live in houses centuries old. Not come across anyone who needs to change very much to cope with climate change, apart from things to reduce emissions (mostly installing heat pumps can be difficult)
The built environment also needs to handle a lot of variation anyway.
I can certainly see a drastic impact in some places: low lying land (I would be very worried if I was Dutch or Maldivian. I might be quite worried if I was living in Norfolk) , but its not everywhere.
Anyone living in a flood plane will have had to have made changes or not be insured.
Flash flooding is getting worse in the UK, partly because of climate change (look at how wet February was for south east UK) but also because a lot of urban areas are being paved over.
but to a throw away comment:
> installing heat pumps can be difficult
Yes, yes they can be, but also they also are not the cheapest way to save carbon.
Insulation makes a much bigger impact, that includes external wall insulation, and better glazing. its up to 2x cheaper.
Flash flooding is getting worse in the UK, partly because of climate change (look at how wet February was for south east UK) but also because a lot of urban areas are being paved over.
but to a throw away comment:
> installing heat pumps can be difficult
Yes, yes they can be, but also they also are not the cheapest way to save carbon.
Insulation makes a much bigger impact, that includes external wall insulation, and better glazing. its up to 2x cheaper.
There is crazy housebuilding and development in the UK. An entire housing estate was built where I used to live on land that is known to flood. They built pumps to offset it.
Nonetheless, very few places are affected with a decade. The vast majority of people live in places that will not be badly enough to need rebuilding any time soon.
I am hoping that this is a UK problem and the rest of the world is mostly not as crazy. Not that I have high hopes of that.
> Yes, yes they can be, but also they also are not the cheapest way to save carbon.
Cost effective solutions are not profitable, so are not backed by lobbying and marketing.
Nonetheless, very few places are affected with a decade. The vast majority of people live in places that will not be badly enough to need rebuilding any time soon.
I am hoping that this is a UK problem and the rest of the world is mostly not as crazy. Not that I have high hopes of that.
> Yes, yes they can be, but also they also are not the cheapest way to save carbon.
Cost effective solutions are not profitable, so are not backed by lobbying and marketing.
> Sufficient impact to require rebuilding houses or other buildings on a single decade scale?
> The natural world doesn't always have the ability to adjust; lots of habits are suffering and species are going extinct.
To me this is the much bigger issue than us humans adapting. For us to adapt it demands a lot of labour, and associated costs, it will make life harder but it's doable.
Nature doesn't have this ability, animals can't get together in an assembly and find technological fixes to support them living in their environment when it changes, they either move to another area where they are adapted to (if it exists) or they die.
To me this is the much bigger issue than us humans adapting. For us to adapt it demands a lot of labour, and associated costs, it will make life harder but it's doable.
Nature doesn't have this ability, animals can't get together in an assembly and find technological fixes to support them living in their environment when it changes, they either move to another area where they are adapted to (if it exists) or they die.
Precisely this. Earth's 'normal' extinction rate is often thought to be somewhere between 0.1 and 1 species per 10,000 species per 100 years. A mass extinction event is when species vanish much faster than they are replaced. This is usually defined as about 75% of the world's species being lost in a short period of geological time - less than 2.8 million years.
The current rate of extinction is between 100 and 1,000 times higher than the pre-human background rate of extinction. What we're going through will be an extinction event on a timescale and severity that will be closer to the Permian or Cretaceous extinction, which resulted in the species death of 95% and 78% respectively, and caused by apocalyptic scenarios; meteors and volcanos effectively suffocating the planet. Never before has a single species been responsible for such destruction on Earth.
I suspect humanity will survive whatever future is yet to come. I just hope we managed to preserve a substantial percentage of natural diversity through that process.
The current rate of extinction is between 100 and 1,000 times higher than the pre-human background rate of extinction. What we're going through will be an extinction event on a timescale and severity that will be closer to the Permian or Cretaceous extinction, which resulted in the species death of 95% and 78% respectively, and caused by apocalyptic scenarios; meteors and volcanos effectively suffocating the planet. Never before has a single species been responsible for such destruction on Earth.
I suspect humanity will survive whatever future is yet to come. I just hope we managed to preserve a substantial percentage of natural diversity through that process.
Yes, but mass extinction is the result of our greater land usage and resource overexploitation, not climate change (in that it would be happening even if climate change was not).
This also makes it harder for many species to adjust to climate change and habitat loss as it is much harder for them to migrate.
This also makes it harder for many species to adjust to climate change and habitat loss as it is much harder for them to migrate.
Not strictly accurate; it's the major part of it, but climate-change driven species loss is a real threat and at some point will likely outpace the rate of loss due to land/resource exploitation.
Ocean biodiversity loss is almost certainly harmed by overfishing and toxic run-off from rivers/lakes don't get me wrong, but it's also hugely impacted by rising sea temperatures. Ocean biodiversity increases exponentially with sea surface temperature up to about 20-25 C (68-77 F). Beyond that threshold, biodiversity drops off due to the limits of aerobic metabolism. Temperatures that make it hard for cold-blooded sea creatures to breathe have likely been among the biggest drivers for shifts in the distribution of marine biodiversity.
Desertification, caused partly by human agriculture and the removal of soil-retaining plant matter but mostly due to climate change, is also a major cause of species loss and it's occurring across much of the planet - especially Africa and Central Asia. Those animals that can't rapidly migrate to cooler/wetter climates are ripe for extinction.
Ocean biodiversity loss is almost certainly harmed by overfishing and toxic run-off from rivers/lakes don't get me wrong, but it's also hugely impacted by rising sea temperatures. Ocean biodiversity increases exponentially with sea surface temperature up to about 20-25 C (68-77 F). Beyond that threshold, biodiversity drops off due to the limits of aerobic metabolism. Temperatures that make it hard for cold-blooded sea creatures to breathe have likely been among the biggest drivers for shifts in the distribution of marine biodiversity.
Desertification, caused partly by human agriculture and the removal of soil-retaining plant matter but mostly due to climate change, is also a major cause of species loss and it's occurring across much of the planet - especially Africa and Central Asia. Those animals that can't rapidly migrate to cooler/wetter climates are ripe for extinction.
Tottaly agree. The world around us is changing, climate change is the main one which has impact on nearly anything
This sounds great for GDP!
It’s not. Projections say that global gdp will shrink 18% by 2050 because of climate change [1].
[1] https://www.swissre.com/media/press-release/nr-20210422-econ...
[1] https://www.swissre.com/media/press-release/nr-20210422-econ...
That seems mostly to be talking about rising sea levels etc.
I read GP as talking about the positive impact on GDP of rebuilding, and with the intent of pointing out that GDP is a flawed metric.
I read GP as talking about the positive impact on GDP of rebuilding, and with the intent of pointing out that GDP is a flawed metric.
I forgot about this and had a busy week, but yes you nailed it. The other commenters are also right in pointing out the obvious flaws of GDP with or without meaning to, but you understood the spirit of the comment.
I think the key part is reminding people that it’ll be worse if we don’t act. The work of adapting won’t be cheap but it’s positive work in the right direction, boosting GDP when it would otherwise be falling chaotically.
Not really. It means spending money rebuilding things just to maintain productivity is instead of investing in productivity multipliers.
It’s the difference between going into debt for medical school versus going into debt to pay the high interest your loan shark demands after you ran up gambling debts.
It’s the difference between going into debt for medical school versus going into debt to pay the high interest your loan shark demands after you ran up gambling debts.
You may want to familiarize yourself with the parable of the broken window.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
datbn(2)
Summary:
More ice melt => More fresh water in the Atlantic => cold surface anomalies in winter => sub-polar winter storms => heatwaves in Europe in summer
Mostly not predicted as models do not have fine enough grid resolution to show the movement of freshwater into the Atlantic, which happens via "narrow" channels.
More ice melt => More fresh water in the Atlantic => cold surface anomalies in winter => sub-polar winter storms => heatwaves in Europe in summer
Mostly not predicted as models do not have fine enough grid resolution to show the movement of freshwater into the Atlantic, which happens via "narrow" channels.
Actually, quite a few of this is predicted just not with full certainty. One thing people forget is that Europe is very warm compared to most of Northern America which for the same latitude features much harsher temperatures in the winter.
Most of Northern Europe isn't like most of Siberia or Canada (e.g. Berlin where I live is at the same latitude as Newfoundland. Toronto is almost 9 degrees further south. Winters are mild here, summers quite hot and humid.
The reason for that is the gulf stream which works by hot water flowing towards the arctic, cooling down there and then flowing back. So, we get a lot of hot tropical sea water that keeps things warm. What happens if the arctic water has a lot less ice in it and warms up?
People have of course modeled that and one possible outcome is a mini ice age in Europe. Another possible outcome is accelerated melting of what remains of glaciers and return of some tropical flora and fauna that as evidenced by fossil remains, used to be common in Northern Europe. It all depends. Both have happened in the past. It's hard to predict based on a sample of one. And technically the dumping of epic amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere has not happened at this scale and speed before.
One thing is certain, summers are getting quite toasty in Southern Europe. It's slowly turning more arid, dry, and hot and it isn't that nice of a vacation destination because of it. 32 degrees Celcius is pleasant. 42 degrees just isn't.
Most of Northern Europe isn't like most of Siberia or Canada (e.g. Berlin where I live is at the same latitude as Newfoundland. Toronto is almost 9 degrees further south. Winters are mild here, summers quite hot and humid.
The reason for that is the gulf stream which works by hot water flowing towards the arctic, cooling down there and then flowing back. So, we get a lot of hot tropical sea water that keeps things warm. What happens if the arctic water has a lot less ice in it and warms up?
People have of course modeled that and one possible outcome is a mini ice age in Europe. Another possible outcome is accelerated melting of what remains of glaciers and return of some tropical flora and fauna that as evidenced by fossil remains, used to be common in Northern Europe. It all depends. Both have happened in the past. It's hard to predict based on a sample of one. And technically the dumping of epic amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere has not happened at this scale and speed before.
One thing is certain, summers are getting quite toasty in Southern Europe. It's slowly turning more arid, dry, and hot and it isn't that nice of a vacation destination because of it. 32 degrees Celcius is pleasant. 42 degrees just isn't.
>The reason for that is the gulf stream
Or, perhaps not:
The Source of Europe's Mild Climate
For context this is mostly from Richard Seager from back in 2002
https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/people/seager/
https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf
and there's still a consensus forming, but he has the chops and he has a point .. there are comparisons to be made to the Pacific North West and being on the trailing edge (spin wise) of a large continental mass.
Or, perhaps not:
The Source of Europe's Mild Climate
The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth
For context this is mostly from Richard Seager from back in 2002
https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/people/seager/
https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf
and there's still a consensus forming, but he has the chops and he has a point .. there are comparisons to be made to the Pacific North West and being on the trailing edge (spin wise) of a large continental mass.
Both can be right. The heat budget of the NE Pacific ocean, without an equivalent to the Gulf Stream, may well explain the milder winters in Seattle, but the NE Atlantic's heat budget is still "goosed" by the Gulf Stream and mixing. The paper's argument doesn't engage that argument. It deals with atmospheric changes postulated as a consequence of freshwater anomalies caused by arctic melting.
Sure.
The main point of interest here is that for a very long time the gulf stream alone has been the accepted common wisdom for a warm Europe.
It's interesting that there's other credible factors, particularly with talk of potential gulf stream collapse.
The main point of interest here is that for a very long time the gulf stream alone has been the accepted common wisdom for a warm Europe.
It's interesting that there's other credible factors, particularly with talk of potential gulf stream collapse.
Europe is to Eurasia what the Pacific NorthWest is to North America.
Sigh, considering how bad journalists are at nuance - especially those that don't consider themselves as journalists but still wield the 4th Power of Broadcast - I can't wait (/s) until we have to "explain ourselves" about how it "contradicts" our previous meme about excess freshwater from melt being expected to at least slow down the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic, leading to a weaker Gulf Stream, and therefore a colder Europe (as emphasized to the point of ridiculousness in The Day After Tomorrow apocalyptic movie)... by "forgetting" the emphasis on summers.
Will at least be an opportunity to explain how Science actually works, and about chaotic systems I guess...
----
Still, one immediate question is how this impacts the rest of the year, since there's an (on the surface) obvious feedback loop here... (an answer to which might or might not be forthcoming...)
Will at least be an opportunity to explain how Science actually works, and about chaotic systems I guess...
----
Still, one immediate question is how this impacts the rest of the year, since there's an (on the surface) obvious feedback loop here... (an answer to which might or might not be forthcoming...)
> and about chaotic systems
Surely you mean complex adaptive systems.
Surely you mean complex adaptive systems.
That movie The Day After Tomorrow had a really cool visualisation for all that. The movie was released exactly 20 years ago...
More heatwaves, more AC, more ice melt.
Summary: there have been warmer summers in Europe lately, much warmer in Northern Europe and Iceland. That seems to explain additional ice melt.
Nothing surprising, but nice detailed wind patterns and one more brick in our understanding of climate change.
Nothing surprising, but nice detailed wind patterns and one more brick in our understanding of climate change.
So.. as an individual living in the northen part of Europe, can I expect a nice summer then?
That depends on your definition of "nice". I'd prefer not to break 40C myself. The buildings here are absolute crap for dealing with heat too (eaves? shade? airflow? Who the hell needs that?)
We've been breaking 40 C numerous times these past two months... look for better buildings if you can.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-01-25/making-your-h...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/home-design-changing-...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-01-25/making-your-h...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/home-design-changing-...
Buildings in northern Europe are just not built for ventilation, AC and dealing with heat. It’s not a matter of looking, that’s just not how people build here (just like people in Israel don’t build building that handle cold weather well).
> Buildings in northern Europe are just not built for ventilation, AC and dealing with heat.
Luckily, because of the cold, buildings are well insulated so at least they can seek some cover inside. Granted, it won't reach 40C anyways, but at least houses are built properly over there so it helps a little.
Luckily, because of the cold, buildings are well insulated so at least they can seek some cover inside. Granted, it won't reach 40C anyways, but at least houses are built properly over there so it helps a little.
It doesn't work that way, exactly because the buildings are well insulated they keep warmth for much longer during summer.
Back in July 2018 we had a month of hot weather in Stockholm (you probably experience it, saw in another comment you moved Sweden -> Spain), temperatures reaching 30C for multiple days and "tropical nights" (air temperature >= 20C during the night), even as a native Brazilian I could not bear how hot my house got, it wouldn't cool down during the night and the next day it'd heat up again. It got to a point where I couldn't sleep and there was a shortage of fans for sale, super basic fans were going for 100€ in the 2nd hand market.
Back in July 2018 we had a month of hot weather in Stockholm (you probably experience it, saw in another comment you moved Sweden -> Spain), temperatures reaching 30C for multiple days and "tropical nights" (air temperature >= 20C during the night), even as a native Brazilian I could not bear how hot my house got, it wouldn't cool down during the night and the next day it'd heat up again. It got to a point where I couldn't sleep and there was a shortage of fans for sale, super basic fans were going for 100€ in the 2nd hand market.
No, it does work that way. The issue is that without AC our buildings will eventually get so warm insulation does not help.
Buildings would not cool down anyway during night in Stockholm due to the very short nights and Stockholm bring by a lake, we do not have cool nights. The only solution is insulation plus AC.
Buildings would not cool down anyway during night in Stockholm due to the very short nights and Stockholm bring by a lake, we do not have cool nights. The only solution is insulation plus AC.
Heatpumps would help as well.
> It doesn't work that way, exactly because the buildings are well insulated they keep warmth for much longer during summer.
Goes both ways, doesn't it?
Lots of houses in Sweden have basement/cellar floors as well, and if you have good insulation, you manage to keep more of that below-ground coldness around, compared to if air blew freely through the house. At least that was my experience.
> you probably experience it
Fortunately not, moved away from my home country in 2012 already :)
Goes both ways, doesn't it?
Lots of houses in Sweden have basement/cellar floors as well, and if you have good insulation, you manage to keep more of that below-ground coldness around, compared to if air blew freely through the house. At least that was my experience.
> you probably experience it
Fortunately not, moved away from my home country in 2012 already :)
At least in Finland modern apartment blocks are really the worst, much worse than 100 year old wooden houses. Usually they are built to maximize constructor profits, with bad floorplan that makes that any kind of airflow through the apartment by opening windows impossible. No AC of course, and concrete walls which preserve lots of heat.
They need to start building differently.
This is already happening, but I don't know to what extent (especially over multiple countries), but we moved into our extremely well insulated house (thing 3 layers of glass) in the Netherlands mid 2020. Heating happens using a ground source + heat pump, cooling using just the ground source and passive pumping, ventilation is centralised and uses heat exchange.
During some 30/35+ waves of the last few summers we kept it below 23 degrees Celsius inside, even over many days of heat.
During some 30/35+ waves of the last few summers we kept it below 23 degrees Celsius inside, even over many days of heat.
How do you handle light? I'm in Hilversum and the houses are just ovens.
Until recently I lived in Ireland and people looked at me like I had 3 heads when I talked about air tightness, deciduous trees in front of south facing windows, and eaves/awnings - the idea that you might not _want_ as much light as possible baffled the dinosaurs in planning.
I hope the Netherlands is better but I still see an awful lot of windows with no protection from sunlight. Eaves are perfect (and deciduous trees) because you can angle them such that you get light in the winter but shade in the mid-day summer sun.
Until recently I lived in Ireland and people looked at me like I had 3 heads when I talked about air tightness, deciduous trees in front of south facing windows, and eaves/awnings - the idea that you might not _want_ as much light as possible baffled the dinosaurs in planning.
I hope the Netherlands is better but I still see an awful lot of windows with no protection from sunlight. Eaves are perfect (and deciduous trees) because you can angle them such that you get light in the winter but shade in the mid-day summer sun.
And we do. The issue is all old homes that need to have AC installed.
I've spent few months in Andalusia and can't say their apartment buildings are better suited for heat than one I live in Poland. Yes there are more curtains and AC, but it is not related to the building, you can have them in northern apartment too.
As a person who moved to Spain (Barcelona though) from Sweden, I agree. Houses here have basically no insulation what so ever, unless they're built recently. During the summer, it's almost impossible to escape the heat unless you have AC inside. Meanwhile, in Sweden you can usually just enter any house and can be sure that there is at least is a temperature difference compared to outside just because of way better insulation.
At least in Israel apartments are much better ventilated than in Germany - there are usually multiple directions with windows (e.g. windows on 3 air directions, so you can open all the windows and get good circulation), a lot of apartments in Germany have only 1-2 air directions and the rooms are not setup for good air circulation. Also windows tend to be much bigger and open up more conveniently in Israel (in Germany because windows open inwards if you have anything on the way you can’t easily open the window, you have to first remove everything from the window sill - in Israel windows often slide or open outwards).
It’s subtle differences and when its super hot (40c) you need AC anyway, but upper 20s/low 30s still feel ok in a well ventilated apartment and not so much with one built for keeping the cold out (like in Germany).
It’s also much more common to have functional window shades (like these http://alumgo.weebly.com/uploads/1/4/6/7/14671210/7800745_or...) in Israel than in Germany. In homes I’ve mostly only seen the cheap kind of shades or curtains in Germany, and these aren’t very good.
It’s subtle differences and when its super hot (40c) you need AC anyway, but upper 20s/low 30s still feel ok in a well ventilated apartment and not so much with one built for keeping the cold out (like in Germany).
It’s also much more common to have functional window shades (like these http://alumgo.weebly.com/uploads/1/4/6/7/14671210/7800745_or...) in Israel than in Germany. In homes I’ve mostly only seen the cheap kind of shades or curtains in Germany, and these aren’t very good.
Sure.
All the same, with interesting times ahead it'll be a case of choosing to suffer through, changing locations, or rebuilding | renovating to adapt.
All the more interesting as the northern European climate for the next decade isn't exactly locked in and known for certain yet.
All the same, with interesting times ahead it'll be a case of choosing to suffer through, changing locations, or rebuilding | renovating to adapt.
All the more interesting as the northern European climate for the next decade isn't exactly locked in and known for certain yet.
Shutters and window shades can be added easily enough, and the high-mass of many buildings here gives decent heat inertia to keep things cooler during the day.
Also, can't you run some heat pumps in reverse and use them as air conditioners?
So there might be a natural path to taming the problem as heating systems are replaced for end of life reasons.
So there might be a natural path to taming the problem as heating systems are replaced for end of life reasons.
Yes, air source heat pumps (mini or multi split systems) in particular.
Unfortunately most houses in northern Europe are obsolete and plumbed for radiators so people tend to opt for systems that heat water instead of upgrading to something that offers cooling as well.
Unfortunately most houses in northern Europe are obsolete and plumbed for radiators so people tend to opt for systems that heat water instead of upgrading to something that offers cooling as well.
[deleted]
I don't think you have to worry about it breaking 40C, I don't think that temperature has ever been recorded in for example Sweden.
Though, Swedes would still suffer it temperatures reach 30C as it's still above average highs.
Though, Swedes would still suffer it temperatures reach 30C as it's still above average highs.
> I don't think you have to worry about it breaking 40C, I don't think that temperature has ever been recorded in for example Sweden.
No, it seems you're right. The highest temperature ever recorded was 38C in 1933. It hasn't been broken since then.
No, it seems you're right. The highest temperature ever recorded was 38C in 1933. It hasn't been broken since then.
Get your fireworks ready, we might be in for a surprise soon given the weather trend.
Here in Berlin I’d much rather the traditional 25c summers over the 35c+ summer of ’22 (fortunately ’23 summer was relatively mild and rainy). I do appreciate the mild winters tho!
The mild winters are problem so:
- the risk of temp drops after plants started to sprout -> bad harvests
- snow is a great water reservoir, having the snow as rain leads to floods, results in lower ground water levels and droughts -> bad across the board and also impacting agriculture
- the permafrost in the alps is melting -> mountains litterally fall apart
And we see all that already for years now.
Edit: As rain goes rather quickly into rivers, and from there into the sea, it also compounds the fresh water issues mentioned in the article. Melting snow does so much slower, meaning it goes into ground water. Not having snow anymore really disrupts the water cycle in regions that had snow before.
- the risk of temp drops after plants started to sprout -> bad harvests
- snow is a great water reservoir, having the snow as rain leads to floods, results in lower ground water levels and droughts -> bad across the board and also impacting agriculture
- the permafrost in the alps is melting -> mountains litterally fall apart
And we see all that already for years now.
Edit: As rain goes rather quickly into rivers, and from there into the sea, it also compounds the fresh water issues mentioned in the article. Melting snow does so much slower, meaning it goes into ground water. Not having snow anymore really disrupts the water cycle in regions that had snow before.
- overwintering pests and diseases
That was one hard sentence to parse.
> (the risk (of temp) drops) after (plants started to sprout)
The risk drops, why does it cause bad harvests? Otherwise, what is the "temp"?
The presumably intended reading:
> (the risk of (temp drops))
is nonsensical on a different level: risk always exists. It's the change that's interesting.
> (the risk (of temp) drops) after (plants started to sprout)
The risk drops, why does it cause bad harvests? Otherwise, what is the "temp"?
The presumably intended reading:
> (the risk of (temp drops))
is nonsensical on a different level: risk always exists. It's the change that's interesting.
There could still be a lot of improvement in both summers and winters in more north of Europe. And hopefully we could nuke something in some way that would balance out the sun so that summers wouldn't be constant light and winters completely dark. It is just depressing. It is unclear what our ancestors were thinking moving here. Probably forced.
You forgot the (/s) I hope ?
This is just about geometry...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-being-wobbly-...
So if you were ridiculously reckless and wielded enormous power, you could try to reduce Earth axial tilt so that there are no more seasons. Problem : this also makes the equator even hotter and poles even colder.
(With even more effort you could try to increase the tilt even more, I'm not certain about all the implications, but it seems to roughly swap equator and poles ??)
Without that kind of (did I mention reckless ?) power, our future instead seems to be of the opposite of what you are asking for : in a bad case scenario, we might end up the current Ice Age (that we lived in for the last 2.6 Ma, and which roughly corresponds to the oldest known tool industry that pretty much separates us from other animals), returning the Earth into its (more) normal state, which also involves the equators and maybe even the middle latitudes being uninhabitable for Humans and maybe even for mammals in general.
So we might face a bleak future where our descendants are trying to survive in weird jungles (?) of the Siberian coast and Antarctica, where, unlike the current jungles, summers are indeed "constant light and winters completely dark". I have some doubts about whether any civilizations can rise in these conditions...
This is just about geometry...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-being-wobbly-...
So if you were ridiculously reckless and wielded enormous power, you could try to reduce Earth axial tilt so that there are no more seasons. Problem : this also makes the equator even hotter and poles even colder.
(With even more effort you could try to increase the tilt even more, I'm not certain about all the implications, but it seems to roughly swap equator and poles ??)
Without that kind of (did I mention reckless ?) power, our future instead seems to be of the opposite of what you are asking for : in a bad case scenario, we might end up the current Ice Age (that we lived in for the last 2.6 Ma, and which roughly corresponds to the oldest known tool industry that pretty much separates us from other animals), returning the Earth into its (more) normal state, which also involves the equators and maybe even the middle latitudes being uninhabitable for Humans and maybe even for mammals in general.
So we might face a bleak future where our descendants are trying to survive in weird jungles (?) of the Siberian coast and Antarctica, where, unlike the current jungles, summers are indeed "constant light and winters completely dark". I have some doubts about whether any civilizations can rise in these conditions...
thriftwy(2)
So do the ticks!
If by "nice" you mean the usual 20°C most of the time but with regular heat waves of 35-40°C from May to September, sure!
What do you consider to be north?
So, as the nordic countries have experienced a cold winter this year, we are destined for a hot summer in europe?
Besides the very northern parts it hasn't been cold. Spring flowers bloomed last week in Denmark.
Stockholm was cold this winter and I would not say we are very northern.
It might have felt colder than usual since there were a few really cold days and the years prior were very warm, but...
December 2023 in Stockholm was pretty much _average_
https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.203578.1706190685!/image/t...
And January a bit below average:
https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.204720.1708930291!/image/t...
February is on track on being above average with a record early spring.
December 2023 in Stockholm was pretty much _average_
https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.203578.1706190685!/image/t...
And January a bit below average:
https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.204720.1708930291!/image/t...
February is on track on being above average with a record early spring.
Here in Lithuania we had one day below -20c this winter. Usually we have at least one or two weeks like that. Now the snow has melted and it's spring, feels around 6 weeks too early.
It was pretty cold in Oslo and that is not very northern.
Its 6 degrees in Oslo right now - in February.
I was posting it because there was -20 during winter. But now I checked [0] and it seems that anomalies are even further north.
[0] https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
[0] https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
didn't oslo always been warm bc of ocean currents?
Ocean currents and winds, but January and February have traditionally been the coldest months.
[deleted]
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Weather =|= climate. Or one cold day doesn't make winter. Nor does one hot day make summer.
That applies in both directions and that was a response to someone saying it was warm in Copenhagen. I definitely do not doubt climate change but a warn winter in Copenhagen or a cold one in Oslo/Stockholm isn't climate, that is weather.
E.g. In Poland this has been the warmest February on record.
>Nor does one hot day make summer.
You're not from the UK.
You're not from the UK.
Depends on your definition of summer: if you apply your expectations from an August holiday in southern France to August in the UK, that is your fault!
We had a handful of extreme cold days, but they were compressed in-between a late arrival of the winter and a too warm and early spring.
"The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however". This frighten me a little
Are we getting an Azolla event?
Earths history has had many extraordinary climate changes, we already know of events like Permian–Triassic extinction.
I appreciate many people feel an obligation for humanity to minimise its effect on climate change, but the way I see it, change is constant. If we don’t cause an extinction event, earth will do it just fine without us.
The best result for humanity is if we get off this rock asap and improve our technology. The quicker we do this the better. If we have to ruin earth and its beautiful climate in the process, so be it.
I appreciate many people feel an obligation for humanity to minimise its effect on climate change, but the way I see it, change is constant. If we don’t cause an extinction event, earth will do it just fine without us.
The best result for humanity is if we get off this rock asap and improve our technology. The quicker we do this the better. If we have to ruin earth and its beautiful climate in the process, so be it.
That's makes no sense.
Is the climate nicer and grass really greener on Mars?
Is the climate nicer and grass really greener on Mars?
I know Starship is a one big spaceship, but how maby people exactly do you want to evacuate from Earth?
> The best result for humanity is if we get off this rock asap and improve our technology. The quicker we do this the better. If we have to ruin earth and its beautiful climate in the process, so be it.
This is completely delusional; even if we nuked our planet with our complete arsenal as "efficiently" as possible, earth would STILL be more human-habitable than Mars.
This is completely delusional; even if we nuked our planet with our complete arsenal as "efficiently" as possible, earth would STILL be more human-habitable than Mars.
What an idiotic philosophy.
> If we don’t cause an extinction event, earth will do it just fine without us.
But we are, clearly.
> If we don’t cause an extinction event, earth will do it just fine without us.
But we are, clearly.