Wagner leader says war in Ukraine has backfired, warns of Russian revolution(washingtonpost.com)
washingtonpost.com
Wagner leader says war in Ukraine has backfired, warns of Russian revolution
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/24/yevgeniy-prigozhin-war-backfired-revolution/
3 comments
I'm not so sure that Putin is able to have Prigozhin eliminated any more. The man has thousands of troops that are clearly loyal to him rather than Russia, and the regular Russian army does not seem to be able to perform at the same level as Wagner (even if you subtract all of Prigozhin's puffery, it still looks like regular Russian MoD underperforms compared to Wagner).
Supposedly Wagner troops are showing up in Sudan the last few weeks. I think Prigozhin is not intending to go back to Russia, until he can go with a few thousand troops (like Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon). He probably expects to leave Ukraine before Russia loses, then come back to Russia (with thousands of battle-tested troops) in the ensuing chaos.
Putin may or may not see what he's up to. He might have been hoping to exhaust Wagner's troops in Bakhmut precisely to prevent this from happening. Regardless, I don't think Putin wants to reprimand if he can't enforce it, and right now with Prigozhin surrounded by his own troops, I don't think Putin can enforce it. Even less so once Prigozhin is in Sudan.
Plus, a lot of the regular army (e.g. Surovikin) are rumored to like Prigozhin better than Putin. If forced to choose between them, I don't think at this point that Putin can count on them choosing him.
Supposedly Wagner troops are showing up in Sudan the last few weeks. I think Prigozhin is not intending to go back to Russia, until he can go with a few thousand troops (like Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon). He probably expects to leave Ukraine before Russia loses, then come back to Russia (with thousands of battle-tested troops) in the ensuing chaos.
Putin may or may not see what he's up to. He might have been hoping to exhaust Wagner's troops in Bakhmut precisely to prevent this from happening. Regardless, I don't think Putin wants to reprimand if he can't enforce it, and right now with Prigozhin surrounded by his own troops, I don't think Putin can enforce it. Even less so once Prigozhin is in Sudan.
Plus, a lot of the regular army (e.g. Surovikin) are rumored to like Prigozhin better than Putin. If forced to choose between them, I don't think at this point that Putin can count on them choosing him.
[deleted]
Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia?
Putin is using them as a battering ram, and is presumably not bothered by leaving their corpses in a burn pit to preserve the Russian Army
Putin is not too different than Stalin...the penal units Stalin forced to walk into German minefields had a 90% loss rate...but they weren't regular Red Army so who cares?
Putin is using them as a battering ram, and is presumably not bothered by leaving their corpses in a burn pit to preserve the Russian Army
Putin is not too different than Stalin...the penal units Stalin forced to walk into German minefields had a 90% loss rate...but they weren't regular Red Army so who cares?
> Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia?
Looting and the allure of being on top of the pyramid after?
Looting and the allure of being on top of the pyramid after?
unlikely...they are still Russian nationals and Putin can take action against their families if they try to grow brains (another tactic borrowed from Stalin)
in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? the US? Putin would empty the silos
in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? the US? Putin would empty the silos
> they are still Russian nationals
This is the case for most revolutions. They’re invasions otherwise.
> who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow?
Again, revolutionaries tend to manage this. Often seizing stuff along the way.
This is the case for most revolutions. They’re invasions otherwise.
> who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow?
Again, revolutionaries tend to manage this. Often seizing stuff along the way.
> in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow?
Their existing stocks until they capture Russian state stocks on the way (either by force, or by corruption—money works on corrupt quartermasters, and Prigozhin has a lot), or by turning local troops and the supplies they control to the cause.
But, yeah, outside anti-Putin governments aren’t impossible sponsors, especially if he has some early success. Enemy of my enemy can go a long way to making strange bedfellows.
Their existing stocks until they capture Russian state stocks on the way (either by force, or by corruption—money works on corrupt quartermasters, and Prigozhin has a lot), or by turning local troops and the supplies they control to the cause.
But, yeah, outside anti-Putin governments aren’t impossible sponsors, especially if he has some early success. Enemy of my enemy can go a long way to making strange bedfellows.
I agree with your analysis. It hardly matters what the general public in the West thinks about the situation in Russia anyway—this is just a weak PR trick in the hopes that it reduces aid to Ukraine—which is not likely to happen. Those poor Russian people. They deserve better.
> Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated?
Prigozhin may be an important tool in the common authoritarian tactic of avoiding any single subordinate from having a dominant powerbase, which would explain tolerating (or even encouraging, subtly) the apparent factional divide between Prigozhin and Shoigu.
Prigozhin may be an important tool in the common authoritarian tactic of avoiding any single subordinate from having a dominant powerbase, which would explain tolerating (or even encouraging, subtly) the apparent factional divide between Prigozhin and Shoigu.
[deleted]
> Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated?
Might fear an attempt to do so would be the thing that set off said revolution.
Might fear an attempt to do so would be the thing that set off said revolution.
It's just my theory as a retired combat officer. I could be 100% wrong but this is 100% what I would do in Putin's situation. I watched the videos of the outbursts and it's on the outrageous side. It seemed silly to me to be honest.
One thing is for sure; we will find out the truth together.
One thing is for sure; we will find out the truth together.
Just a canary to detect high level dissenters. Putin is cheka, if he can get anything done, its filtering out the opposition airing grievances by the window and silencing them.
he's clearly in a feud with the Russian DoD, but he's way off thinking that failing to commit the children of the elites' to combat will result in a "revolution"
in fact its the opposite...look closer to home
no one on the Harvard or Yale rowing teams died in the Civil War...they didn't even put on uniforms (and if anyone asked them to, they could pay someone else to go in their place)
fast forward to Vietnam when we decided the elite should fight too...the nation ripped itself apart
fast forward again to the pointless quagmire of Afghanistan...all volunteers, mostly from poor backgrounds...no meaningful public dissent for twenty years
back to Russia, they already have 500k fresh recruits who will soon be ready to deploy...no riots so far
in fact its the opposite...look closer to home
no one on the Harvard or Yale rowing teams died in the Civil War...they didn't even put on uniforms (and if anyone asked them to, they could pay someone else to go in their place)
fast forward to Vietnam when we decided the elite should fight too...the nation ripped itself apart
fast forward again to the pointless quagmire of Afghanistan...all volunteers, mostly from poor backgrounds...no meaningful public dissent for twenty years
back to Russia, they already have 500k fresh recruits who will soon be ready to deploy...no riots so far
no one on the Harvard or Yale rowing teams died in the Civil War
Don't know know about the rowing team per se, but one of the most important buildings at Harvard is Memorial Hall, which was built to memorialize Harvard students who died in the Civil War fighting for the Union[0].
More info on those casualties[1]:
The walls of the Memorial Hall Transept hold 28 white marble tablets bearing the names of 136 Harvard associates who fell on behalf of the United States Army and Navy during the Civil War. The youngest, Sumner Paine, class of 1865, fell at Gettysburg on July 3, 1863, two years before his intended graduation. The Paul Joseph Revere (plaque 5) listed is the grandson of the famous Paul Revere.
(And, if you look at the names listed on the plaques, you'll see "Revere" isn't the only prominent family-name represented).
And, another even more central building, is Memorial Church, which was built as a memorial to graduates who died fighting in World War I[2] and which also commemorates casualties of WWII and other later wars.
[0] https://websites.harvard.edu/memhall/home-2/buildings/histor...
[1] https://websites.harvard.edu/memhall/home-2/buildings/memori...
[2] https://memorialchurch.harvard.edu/history-0
Don't know know about the rowing team per se, but one of the most important buildings at Harvard is Memorial Hall, which was built to memorialize Harvard students who died in the Civil War fighting for the Union[0].
More info on those casualties[1]:
The walls of the Memorial Hall Transept hold 28 white marble tablets bearing the names of 136 Harvard associates who fell on behalf of the United States Army and Navy during the Civil War. The youngest, Sumner Paine, class of 1865, fell at Gettysburg on July 3, 1863, two years before his intended graduation. The Paul Joseph Revere (plaque 5) listed is the grandson of the famous Paul Revere.
(And, if you look at the names listed on the plaques, you'll see "Revere" isn't the only prominent family-name represented).
And, another even more central building, is Memorial Church, which was built as a memorial to graduates who died fighting in World War I[2] and which also commemorates casualties of WWII and other later wars.
[0] https://websites.harvard.edu/memhall/home-2/buildings/histor...
[1] https://websites.harvard.edu/memhall/home-2/buildings/memori...
[2] https://memorialchurch.harvard.edu/history-0
Not sure about the Harvard rowing team... https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/03/blue-gray-and...
Note that the first person they mention was on the rowing team.
Off to war, from Harvard
Among the first enlistees in the 20th was the patrician Caspar Crowninshield ’60, the rugged lead oar of his College crew team and the sixth from his family to graduate from Harvard. His thoughts turned somber on the train ride south. “I could not help feeling sad as I looked around,” he wrote, reflecting on how “few might ever return.”
Union enlistments: 1,358 College, 608 Medical School, 387 Law School, 285 Lawrence Scientific, 54 Divinity, 23 Observatory, 1 Killed or died of wounds, 110 Died from disease, 63 Died from accidents, 3
Off to war, from Harvard
Among the first enlistees in the 20th was the patrician Caspar Crowninshield ’60, the rugged lead oar of his College crew team and the sixth from his family to graduate from Harvard. His thoughts turned somber on the train ride south. “I could not help feeling sad as I looked around,” he wrote, reflecting on how “few might ever return.”
Union enlistments: 1,358 College, 608 Medical School, 387 Law School, 285 Lawrence Scientific, 54 Divinity, 23 Observatory, 1 Killed or died of wounds, 110 Died from disease, 63 Died from accidents, 3
> fast forward to Vietnam when we decided the elite should fight too
That's the opposite of what happened with Vietnam, with its limited draft with broader exemptions [0] than previous 20th Century wars.
[0] For a particularly class-specific example, the student deferment by the time of Vietnam extended as long as you were a full-time student making satisfactory progress, and could be kept up until you passed draftable age; in Korea, a qualified student could defer induction until the end of the current term only.
That's the opposite of what happened with Vietnam, with its limited draft with broader exemptions [0] than previous 20th Century wars.
[0] For a particularly class-specific example, the student deferment by the time of Vietnam extended as long as you were a full-time student making satisfactory progress, and could be kept up until you passed draftable age; in Korea, a qualified student could defer induction until the end of the current term only.
>they already have 500k fresh recruits who will soon be ready to deploy
Source?
Source?
I want to believe it as well but my military instincts kick in because this is exactly what I would do if I was Putin. Create a "woe as me" narrative. Look everyone at all the disfunction in my operations. It's horrible I tell ya, horrible! Putin will never win in the media but he can sabotage it with stories of weakness like this.
Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated? He could easily have done it already. I don't know if this is the case but in a war where you can't win in the media it would be a smart move. One of the smartest.