Tesla Executive Leaves for Waymo(wsj.com)
wsj.com
Tesla Executive Leaves for Waymo
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-executive-leaves-for-alphabet-self-driving-car-unit-waymo-1526160814
128 comments
How does Uber not have experience operating a physical business? They actually have customer support etc (Google has it for minimal products).
Answering the phone is very different than operating a local physical products company. Mechanical failures, repairs, accidents, charging the vehicles, vandalism, etc. etc.
Think about how hard it is for consumer companies to sell to enterprises. Microsoft is terrible at consumer. Google is terrible at enterprise.
This is a much bigger leap than consumer -> enterprise. Uber and Waymo both have a lot to learn here. That’s why I think companies like Avis etc are potential unorthodox acquisitions that we will see.
Think about how hard it is for consumer companies to sell to enterprises. Microsoft is terrible at consumer. Google is terrible at enterprise.
This is a much bigger leap than consumer -> enterprise. Uber and Waymo both have a lot to learn here. That’s why I think companies like Avis etc are potential unorthodox acquisitions that we will see.
> Microsoft is terrible at consumer.
care to explain more?
care to explain more?
IE, Messenger, Hotmail, Windows, Skype are all examples of products in the #1 position that Microsoft mismanaged and lost. Microsoft’s success in coming from behind is even worse: Windows Phone, Zune, Spaces (!)
There are minor exceptions. Xbox was incubated in a different group and only survived because they kept Microsoft’s crazy ideas out. Even there Xbox is falling behind PS under Satya.
In Enterprise, Microsoft is incredible. Azure is serious competition for AWS. Teams will take share in the slack category. Office is a monster business.
There are minor exceptions. Xbox was incubated in a different group and only survived because they kept Microsoft’s crazy ideas out. Even there Xbox is falling behind PS under Satya.
In Enterprise, Microsoft is incredible. Azure is serious competition for AWS. Teams will take share in the slack category. Office is a monster business.
I'm sorry to say - you are a bit disconnected.
IE reincarnated as Edge
Hotmail -> Outlook (one of the best if not the best)
Windows (Hugely popular. Windows 10 is the best so far)
Skpye (Unreasonable baby cries)
Xbox one, Hololens - going good so far
IE reincarnated as Edge
Hotmail -> Outlook (one of the best if not the best)
Windows (Hugely popular. Windows 10 is the best so far)
Skpye (Unreasonable baby cries)
Xbox one, Hololens - going good so far
What is Edge?
I see. Objectively, it has a long way to go in ways of adoption before it can be deemed a success.
I would not ride a non-Waymo vehicle out of concern for my safety. I’m a software engineer and am not impressed by the available information about their competitors development practices.
WSJ uses Tesla articles to keep their old money media play alive, news at 11. Hackers need not attend.
Is working for Elon just awful? I heard SpaceX people flock to Virgin Galactic because of this.
It's harder work, if that's what you're asking. People who wish for more work/life balance do tend to migrate to Virgin Galactic, etc. Of course, less lucrative stock options and less exciting work.
I think there's an added risk to the stock option from Tesla - the company's future is very volatile - bubble based on Musk's persona
Huge upside potential, too. Musk is really good at spotting opportunities and taking risks. The downside is he often doesn't know how to leave well enough alone and he takes risks. I think SpaceX does so well because Gwynne Shotwell helps balance Musk's risk taking.
Tesla could go bankrupt (as GM and others have) or it could be worth a huge amount of money if they crack automation and scale (and there are good technical reasons why they might actually do that... traditional automakers have not exhausted the trade space).
Tesla could go bankrupt (as GM and others have) or it could be worth a huge amount of money if they crack automation and scale (and there are good technical reasons why they might actually do that... traditional automakers have not exhausted the trade space).
You can see a clear correlation between the amount of Tesla stock being shorted and the number of negative Tesla press that shows up on sites like Hacker News / Reddit. It's surprising how blatant it is.
I can’t believe it, but I guess “correlation doesn’t imply causation” needs to be said on a site that is nominally for hackers.
Also the possibility of confusing (reversing) cause and effect
The prior is assuming of course given the input that WSJ is biased towards negative press against Tesla in general along with the massive short amounts already, it would be in whoever's interest to try and ensure that they can bring as much volatility to the situation in order to make a profit.
Tesla has been losing executives. VP of finance, Chris Lattner (autopilot), Kelty (batteries).
On the upside, no COO means no chance for Tesla to lose one any time soon.
Chris Lattner was at Tesla for the blink of an eye
Yep, couldn't stand it longer. Says something about how bad working for Musk is.
see the interview with his first wife:
As we danced at our wedding reception, Elon told me, "I am the alpha in this relationship." I shrugged it off, just as I would later shrug off signing the postnuptial agreement, but as time went on, I learned that he was serious.
...the will to compete and dominate that made him so successful in business did not magically shut off when he came home. This, and the vast economic imbalance between us, meant that in the months following our wedding, a certain dynamic began to take hold. Elon's judgment overruled mine, and he was constantly remarking on the ways he found me lacking. "I am your wife," I told him repeatedly, "not your employee." "If you were my employee," he said just as often, "I would fire you."
And no matter how many highlights I got, Elon pushed me to be blonder. "Go platinum," he kept saying, and I kept refusing.
If that's how he managed his wife imagine what his execs deal with.
*https://www.marieclaire.com/sex-love/a5380/millionaire-start...
As we danced at our wedding reception, Elon told me, "I am the alpha in this relationship." I shrugged it off, just as I would later shrug off signing the postnuptial agreement, but as time went on, I learned that he was serious.
...the will to compete and dominate that made him so successful in business did not magically shut off when he came home. This, and the vast economic imbalance between us, meant that in the months following our wedding, a certain dynamic began to take hold. Elon's judgment overruled mine, and he was constantly remarking on the ways he found me lacking. "I am your wife," I told him repeatedly, "not your employee." "If you were my employee," he said just as often, "I would fire you."
And no matter how many highlights I got, Elon pushed me to be blonder. "Go platinum," he kept saying, and I kept refusing.
If that's how he managed his wife imagine what his execs deal with.
*https://www.marieclaire.com/sex-love/a5380/millionaire-start...
Sounds vaguely like Sauron. “Will to dominate all life.”
That is a textbook abusive relationship. Pathetic.
Well, the guy claims he needs to be in a relationship to be happy. Not the healthiest thing.
>If I'm not in love, if I'm not with a long-term companion, I cannot be happy," he told Rolling Stone. "I will never be happy without having someone. Going to sleep alone kills me. It's not like I don't know what that feels like: Being in a big empty house, and the footsteps echoing through the hallway, no one there -- and no one on the pillow next to you. F--. How do you make yourself happy in a situation like that?"
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/elon-musk-personal-...
>If I'm not in love, if I'm not with a long-term companion, I cannot be happy," he told Rolling Stone. "I will never be happy without having someone. Going to sleep alone kills me. It's not like I don't know what that feels like: Being in a big empty house, and the footsteps echoing through the hallway, no one there -- and no one on the pillow next to you. F--. How do you make yourself happy in a situation like that?"
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/elon-musk-personal-...
[deleted]
What a creep.
Celebrity gossip is probably out of scope. But:
- Personal lives aren't really a reflection of how someone runs a business.
- He filed for divorce before starting a new relationship. If he'd done worse, presumably we'd be reading about it. That says a lot about his character.
- For his childrens' sake, it's probably better to live independent and stable lives rather than fighting constantly.
- HN is growing large enough that Elon might want to start posting here (as he does on Twitter), so it's probably not too helpful to incite a crowd into jeering at one side of a story.
- Personal lives aren't really a reflection of how someone runs a business.
- He filed for divorce before starting a new relationship. If he'd done worse, presumably we'd be reading about it. That says a lot about his character.
- For his childrens' sake, it's probably better to live independent and stable lives rather than fighting constantly.
- HN is growing large enough that Elon might want to start posting here (as he does on Twitter), so it's probably not too helpful to incite a crowd into jeering at one side of a story.
Why would we want Musks pr campaign to spread to hn?
I'm glad he landed at Google, doing super cool stuff with Tensorflow+Swift.
Also Jim Keller.
What on Earth is going on at this company?
Nothing. They’re just the focus of the media. Like shark attacks a few years back.
Their stock is highly shorted.
I'm half tempted to start asking the authors of these pieces to declare any positions they have in the stock.
I'm half tempted to start asking the authors of these pieces to declare any positions they have in the stock.
The people of import who are shorting TSLA (Chanos etc) aren't exactly working on a journalist's salary.
More importantly, the short interest has been high for ages, and TSLA has received a ton of positive press in that time, as well.
More importantly, the short interest has been high for ages, and TSLA has received a ton of positive press in that time, as well.
I'm not convinced the journalists themselves are shorting anything (though I'd still like to know), but I don't think it's an accident that journalists are getting tips over silly minor crap like someone taking a well-earned vacation.
In other words, I really don't think this kind of press silliness is accidental and "random Tesla guy takes vacation" isn't usually a hot news story.
In other words, I really don't think this kind of press silliness is accidental and "random Tesla guy takes vacation" isn't usually a hot news story.
Where there’s smoke there’s fire.
~ Goes into Gossip Mode ~
Is Elon Musk like "doing too much"?
Boring Company Tesla SpaceX Dating Grimes
~ ends gossip territory ~
I wonder if Google offer more pay or a "safer legacy"?
Is Elon Musk like "doing too much"?
Boring Company Tesla SpaceX Dating Grimes
~ ends gossip territory ~
I wonder if Google offer more pay or a "safer legacy"?
Or less stress. Or a mixture of all.
It's not exactly a secret that Elon is tough to work for. Think pointy haired boss who also happens to be a celebrity.
I think it's also likely a bit of a problem that, unlike pointy haired boss Elon isn't completely clueless. He knows enough to be very dangerous to his employees. As in he knows and (is correct about) what is physically possible, as well as "big picture business" possible. Whereas, he is not so good at the management aspects...
Fiscal reality is catching up with them. When people on /r/teslamotors (it's normally a non-stop pep rally about Tesla, sort of like t_d is for Trump) are able to be upvoted for presenting critical thoughts about Tesla's financial state you know something is happening. Also: see https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/
It would be sad to see them go but at the same time it seems like they sorta did their job: they have ignited lust for electric vehicles in the general public. Car manufacturers have responded and are shifting their production plans accordingly.
It would be sad to see them go but at the same time it seems like they sorta did their job: they have ignited lust for electric vehicles in the general public. Car manufacturers have responded and are shifting their production plans accordingly.
Or the person got a deal he couldn’t refuse. That happens in the tech space.
The analogy "a deal he couldn't refuse" includes a threat as well as an incentive. Or at least it has since the 70s.
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/an-offer-he-cant-refuse....
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/an-offer-he-cant-refuse....
I did not write that because of this particular issue alone.
Since they are a public company you can actually read their financials on the interwebs.
Since they are a public company you can actually read their financials on the interwebs.
Are there statistics out there that show Tesla's retention rate is higher than other tech companies or is it just hyped more?
The number of high level executives that have left in the past year is definitely abnormal.
Chief Accountant, Eric Branderiz
CFO, Jason Wheeler
Treasurer and VP of finance, Susan Repo
Sales chief, Jon McNeill
Musk’s cousins, Lyndon and Peter Rive
Autopilot lead, Chris Lattner
VP of Autopilot, Jim Keller
Battery executive, Kurt Kelty
Diarmuid O’Connell, VP of business
Matthew Schwall, Director of field performance
Unsurprising, Tesla is going downhill fast... If a recession occurs before they get their shit together, they will vanish.
Surely they’re going downhill as their Model 3 production rate accelerates /s
People leave companies, no news here.
I can’t imagine it’ll be too hard to find someone to replace this role. Is Elon or JB Straubel dead? No? Carry on.
People leave companies, no news here.
I can’t imagine it’ll be too hard to find someone to replace this role. Is Elon or JB Straubel dead? No? Carry on.
A bunch of high-level executives leaving a company in a short span is always a bad sign. These executives were all privy to data that outsiders do not have access to, and it seems that they all decided that the data is bad enough to jump ship despite apparent signs that the ship is righting itself.
It could also mean that the project they were leading is transitioning into a phase that they're no longer interested in working on.
Same thing happened as Waymo started ramping up a year or so ago and nobody was freaking out about that.
Same thing happened as Waymo started ramping up a year or so ago and nobody was freaking out about that.
Same thing happened to Theranos...time will tell whether Tesla is a Theranos or a Waymo.
Personally I wish Elon would focus on The Boring Company and SpaceX. Tesla just isn’t going to matter that much in the long run, it’s never going to solve our transportation problems in the way TBC can.
I’d rather see 500,000 new homes in (or within 10 minutes of) San Francisco and cars just won’t make that possible.
I’d rather see 500,000 new homes in (or within 10 minutes of) San Francisco and cars just won’t make that possible.
Tesla does not exist to solve just transportation issues. It exists to drive down the cost of utility scale battery storage to allow for renewables alone to supply power to grids.
You’re entirely right, but he’s taken the long path to get there due to overdesign and it’s just eating up too much of his time. The model X was a fiasco and the 3 isn’t looking much better. He’s solving too many minor design issues and not shipping enough cars.
The design has nothing to do with it. They simply grossly mismanaged the entire logistics and manufacturing part of the business. They hired way too many way too fast, they ignored the advice of generations of car manufacturers (particularly in regard to automation), they expanded their supplier base (and all the bloat that goes with it) way too fast, etc. During all that, they paid merely average, they worked their employees into the ground, they wasted an incredible amount of cash, they ignored significant problems with their automatic driving capability, etc.
Why? It's wasn't because Elon was dicking around with design details, it was hubris.
Keep in mind, this is a company that is _fifteen years old_ now, and still has huge trouble in their bread and butter, manufacturing and logistics. These are all issues that should have been sorted out 5+ years ago _before_ they built out at break-neck speed. But, hey, Elon and the other leaders thought they were smarter than everyone. They thought they, unlike every other car company in history, could just wing it.
Why? It's wasn't because Elon was dicking around with design details, it was hubris.
Keep in mind, this is a company that is _fifteen years old_ now, and still has huge trouble in their bread and butter, manufacturing and logistics. These are all issues that should have been sorted out 5+ years ago _before_ they built out at break-neck speed. But, hey, Elon and the other leaders thought they were smarter than everyone. They thought they, unlike every other car company in history, could just wing it.
It’s my understanding that the Model 3 ramp is the fastest cold ramp in auto production history. “Not looking much better” doesn’t describe the situation.
Considering the QC on the Model 3 has been extremely subpar, being the "fastest cold ramp in auto production history" really just makes Tesla look like the prime example of why you don't do a fast cold ramp.
If Musk had been willing to wait one more year to begin commercial production, the Model 3 could have been amazing. Instead, it's a 90s era Kia with a body and a better-looking body.
If Musk had been willing to wait one more year to begin commercial production, the Model 3 could have been amazing. Instead, it's a 90s era Kia with a body and a better-looking body.
Besides fit and finish, multiple sources have showered praise on the quality of the skateboard (battery, power components, motor, suspension, etc). Fit and finish will improve, and major issues can be corrected in the field post delivery.
Tesla didn’t have a year to wait. That’s why you sell to fanatics and those passionate first. Early adopters are more forgiving. I’ll worry if quality isn’t high after the preorders are cleared out.
Tesla didn’t have a year to wait. That’s why you sell to fanatics and those passionate first. Early adopters are more forgiving. I’ll worry if quality isn’t high after the preorders are cleared out.
Fit and finish are the hardest parts of the process to improve. The skateboard is generally machined and put together by heavily automated/standardized processes. Fit and finish can be automated, but the final quality control steps are done by hand.
Fit and finish is also the most important elements to most buyers. Nobody cares if the skateboard has oodles of praise if the dashboard panels are misaligned and the window makes a squeaking noise and Bob next door has a much cheaper car with a much nicer interior.
Fit and finish is also the most important elements to most buyers. Nobody cares if the skateboard has oodles of praise if the dashboard panels are misaligned and the window makes a squeaking noise and Bob next door has a much cheaper car with a much nicer interior.
[deleted]
It's not.
Did they openly state that as their goal? Because all Li-on batteries in the world can power the US for about an hour.
EDIT: Can anyone of the downvoters please explain what I said wrong? Are we expecting a ten thousandfold increase in battery production? Or are they not going to use batteries like they would in cars?
EDIT: Can anyone of the downvoters please explain what I said wrong? Are we expecting a ten thousandfold increase in battery production? Or are they not going to use batteries like they would in cars?
Li-Ion batteries are on a manufacturing learning curve like photovoltaic, but a few years behind.
Remember the confident predictions a few years back that photovoltaic could never be cost effective? I do, because I was one of them and I was totally wrong. I even knew the trends but somehow felt confident they couldn’t continue.
Remember the confident predictions a few years back that photovoltaic could never be cost effective? I do, because I was one of them and I was totally wrong. I even knew the trends but somehow felt confident they couldn’t continue.
On top of that, Tesla is not innovating on batteries; they aren't even making them themselves. The only thing I know of is replacing 18650 cells with 21700 cells, which are a few percent larger, but not as large as 26650 cells.
Let's be real, Tesla exists to make (or attempt to make) Elon Musk very very wealthy. He isn't hiding that fact, his recent compensation deal demonstrates exactly how he is treating the company like a "lottery ticket"-esque stock option play.
I'm not sure he is as "open" about this apparent motivation as you seem to think. He literally tweeted[1] "Lori, this is ridiculous. Creating a rocket company has to be one of the dumbest and hardest ways to “make money”. If it was about money, I’d just do another Internet company."
1: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/976414452106055680?lang=...
1: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/976414452106055680?lang=...
He was already very wealthy. There are much easier ways to leverage your wealth when you have a lot that require less effort and certainly a lot less risk. Whatever his motivations, I find the idea that "get rich" is one of them sort of ridiculous.
You think "get rich" is not one of his motivations? At all? Why would he lobby for a compensation plan that could be worth $200 billion?
"If the options fully vest, Musk could wind up owning a 28 percent stake of Tesla, which could be worth nearly $200 billion."
Dude is a brilliant sleight-of-hand artist, he's got all his sycophants focused on the "saving the world" thing, meanwhile he's picking pockets and stealing watches right off their wrists.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/21/17147678/elon-musk-tesla-...
"If the options fully vest, Musk could wind up owning a 28 percent stake of Tesla, which could be worth nearly $200 billion."
Dude is a brilliant sleight-of-hand artist, he's got all his sycophants focused on the "saving the world" thing, meanwhile he's picking pockets and stealing watches right off their wrists.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/21/17147678/elon-musk-tesla-...
So increasing Elon Musk’s wealth and power is just a nice side effect?
People should be compensated for their results, no?
Musk is tied up with all kinds of government contracts and subsidies that he uses Barnum-esque celebrity tactics to win.
I find it amusing that his fans reach for these “law of the jungle, apex predator” metaphors to describe him. He’s like the villain of an Ayn Rand novel who has somehow passed himself off as John Galt.
I find it amusing that his fans reach for these “law of the jungle, apex predator” metaphors to describe him. He’s like the villain of an Ayn Rand novel who has somehow passed himself off as John Galt.
Never said he shouldn’t.
The idea that Tesla’s purpose is primarily anything but a Musk power play is a testament to the brand and cult of personality he’s worked dutifully to create and maintain.
The idea that Tesla’s purpose is primarily anything but a Musk power play is a testament to the brand and cult of personality he’s worked dutifully to create and maintain.
I’ve said previously he’s the least worst billionaire. If power, status, and wealth are side effects of positive influence on a global scale, why should that be discouraged?
We are all flawed characters, some more than others. Yet, we all have our parts to play. I can appreciate his positive influences while admitting he’s probably terrible to work for and has a diasterous personal life.
We are all flawed characters, some more than others. Yet, we all have our parts to play. I can appreciate his positive influences while admitting he’s probably terrible to work for and has a diasterous personal life.
He’s rich from PayPal, a company notorious for closing their customers’ accounts using phony pretexts so they could steal the money. He turned around and used that fortune to live fat off government contracts and subsidies, dressing it up as “disruption” to his duped groupies.
All of these billionaires are despicable crooks, but at least some of them don’t insist, like Musk, that we constantly applaud them.
All of these billionaires are despicable crooks, but at least some of them don’t insist, like Musk, that we constantly applaud them.
Pretty much every time I’ve tried to say anything negative about Musk someone comes along and tries to sell me a line about him not caring about money. Then I ask why he keeps demanding so much of it, and they claim he wants to live on Mars. Cult indeed.
There’s faith that big rockets somehow are the missing link to living on Mars. Otherwise reasonable people hang up their skepticism in favor of ignoring the evidence that Musk craves money and power, in favor of believing that he has a master plan to save the world. It’s infuriating, and ironically in a few years they’ll be the first screaming bloody murder when he fails to live up to their impossible dreams. Of course by then he’ll have enough money that he won’t need to care, and rockets working LEO rather than Mars.
I guess it’s easier praying that a billionaire has a vision to save us from ourselves without us having to make any sacrifices, than it is to do the hard work of saving ourselves.
There’s faith that big rockets somehow are the missing link to living on Mars. Otherwise reasonable people hang up their skepticism in favor of ignoring the evidence that Musk craves money and power, in favor of believing that he has a master plan to save the world. It’s infuriating, and ironically in a few years they’ll be the first screaming bloody murder when he fails to live up to their impossible dreams. Of course by then he’ll have enough money that he won’t need to care, and rockets working LEO rather than Mars.
I guess it’s easier praying that a billionaire has a vision to save us from ourselves without us having to make any sacrifices, than it is to do the hard work of saving ourselves.
The Boring Company is a sign of someone who doesn't understand the problem.
Hyperloop and Loop both suffer from the same basic problem: high fixed infrastructure costs with very low throughputs. Higher speed naturally comes with a penalty to capacity [1], but since capacity (at high speeds) is generally invariant with respect to the size of the train and the number of people per car, you can recuperate a lot of capacity by stuffing as many people as you can. Except Hyperloop and Loop are envisioned with single-digit loading, which is basically PRT-level--trash tier in terms of capacity, particularly with regards to price of infrastructure.
Okay, let's move to boring. The only suggestions for lowering prices are a) making tunnels smaller (i.e., make it incompatible with repurposing for other infrastructure, particularly if the venture turns out to be a white elephant) and b) maybe making the actual boring costs be lower. But boring the tunnels isn't the predominant cost of a tunnel--it only costs about $50 million or so to bore a mile of tunnel. That's about a third the cost of actually building a subway [2]. The big cost is the large underground stations. Okay, you say, you need smaller stations, so those would cost less--but because your capacity is so bad that you're going to need many more stations to make up for the throughput. Having run the numbers for single-occupant vehicles, you need about 100× the number of stations to match the capacity of a regular subway line, and the rounding there is flattering to Loop.
If The Boring Company were serious about making tunneling cheaper, they should be bidding for the tunneling subcontracts of current public infrastructure projects. The fact that they're pitching a different transit system instead suggests a form of bait-and-switch.
[1] Essentially, your problems grow with the square of velocity, so multiplied by the linear improvement with velocity, you end up with total throughput running proportional to O(1 / v).
[2] The cost of building a subway is generally only about $300 million a mile. Some subways (cough MTA cough) cost up to $1 billion a mile, but making better TBMs isn't going to make a meaningful dent in those high prices.
Hyperloop and Loop both suffer from the same basic problem: high fixed infrastructure costs with very low throughputs. Higher speed naturally comes with a penalty to capacity [1], but since capacity (at high speeds) is generally invariant with respect to the size of the train and the number of people per car, you can recuperate a lot of capacity by stuffing as many people as you can. Except Hyperloop and Loop are envisioned with single-digit loading, which is basically PRT-level--trash tier in terms of capacity, particularly with regards to price of infrastructure.
Okay, let's move to boring. The only suggestions for lowering prices are a) making tunnels smaller (i.e., make it incompatible with repurposing for other infrastructure, particularly if the venture turns out to be a white elephant) and b) maybe making the actual boring costs be lower. But boring the tunnels isn't the predominant cost of a tunnel--it only costs about $50 million or so to bore a mile of tunnel. That's about a third the cost of actually building a subway [2]. The big cost is the large underground stations. Okay, you say, you need smaller stations, so those would cost less--but because your capacity is so bad that you're going to need many more stations to make up for the throughput. Having run the numbers for single-occupant vehicles, you need about 100× the number of stations to match the capacity of a regular subway line, and the rounding there is flattering to Loop.
If The Boring Company were serious about making tunneling cheaper, they should be bidding for the tunneling subcontracts of current public infrastructure projects. The fact that they're pitching a different transit system instead suggests a form of bait-and-switch.
[1] Essentially, your problems grow with the square of velocity, so multiplied by the linear improvement with velocity, you end up with total throughput running proportional to O(1 / v).
[2] The cost of building a subway is generally only about $300 million a mile. Some subways (cough MTA cough) cost up to $1 billion a mile, but making better TBMs isn't going to make a meaningful dent in those high prices.
> if Boring co were serious...
Did you miss this one?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/04/16/bor...
Did you miss this one?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/04/16/bor...
Those are basically pitches for Loop/Hyperloop, not contracting tunneling for roads, rails, sewers, aqueducts, or other tunnel projects.
> The Boring Company is a sign of someone who doesn't understand the problem.
That rather depends what problem you expect it to tackle. I reframe everything Elon Musk does as testing/developing technologies for interplanetary colonization, which don't forget is SpaceX's very specific vision statement (http://www.spacex.com/about). Back in 2017 he specifically said "I do think getting good at digging tunnels could be really helpful for Mars" and went on to discuss the value of underground colonies in terms of access to ice, radiation protection etc.
That rather depends what problem you expect it to tackle. I reframe everything Elon Musk does as testing/developing technologies for interplanetary colonization, which don't forget is SpaceX's very specific vision statement (http://www.spacex.com/about). Back in 2017 he specifically said "I do think getting good at digging tunnels could be really helpful for Mars" and went on to discuss the value of underground colonies in terms of access to ice, radiation protection etc.
The boring company and by extension hypertube are pipe dreams compared to Tesla.
Care to bet a dollar on that? First tunnel nearing completion, will be open for demo rides.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-12/the-boring-...
(Pipe dreams, I see what you did there)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-12/the-boring-...
(Pipe dreams, I see what you did there)
Musk claims the tunnel is nearing completion. He hasn't made a deadline in several years at any of his companies, so its a good bet that "nearing completion" means "halfway done..."
His been working on this one since August and back in August he have a rought 9 month estimstes.. it seems he is going to miss it by a month. Honestly Elon musk always missed but he also always delivers.
This is a 2 mile test tunnel. We've had the technology to drill tunnels and transport people in them on tracks for more than a century.
The hard part is figuring out how to do it significantly cheaper (10x reduction) than current methods and they haven't presented any data on that yet.
The hard part is figuring out how to do it significantly cheaper (10x reduction) than current methods and they haven't presented any data on that yet.
The first Maglev track for demo rides was completed 25 years ago.
I will never understand why people care so much about execs. It's not like they are the ones actually building and testing stuff or developing the new technology.
Investors care because exec's have inside information and a mass exit is a bad sign.
In the case of individuals it's mostly just noise, but investing is often trying to read tea leaves slightly better than the next guy.
In the case of individuals it's mostly just noise, but investing is often trying to read tea leaves slightly better than the next guy.
It's because that's where the focus is directed by the companies themselves. How would you even know who the real people doing the work are without the company sharing that information? I think the execs would prefer people to assume they come up with all the ideas themselves rather than share the credit (and have their competitors know who to poach). I agree, though -- it's a shame people give Elon so much credit for the hard work of his nameless employees.
http://archive.is/03Zon, though there isn't much there.
When you work for very intelligent and driven people, they tend to be disgusted with incompetence or in my case lack of drive, which is the same thing, I noticed. It is completely counter to what they are. This happened to me when I did not have the same passion as one of my supervisors (as a remote contractor working for other clients as well) and did not want to put the same level of care/hours and extremism as this person had. The intelligence part was debatable but he has his skills etc but I know he was certainly obsessed with moving forward as fast as possible and was a standout in his company because of it. You cannot blame him for his drive as in the end it brings results and its who he is from the core. But of course, I disliked him and still do. Regardless, so what. He still is doing well I'm sure. Elon is probably the most amazing human being to ever have lived in terms of intellect/drive/passion/ability etc that I've heard maybe besides Ghengis Khan so of course he is going to be so much more like that to absolutely repel others not inline with his pace and vision. He could be no other way.
I read this again for some reason. I was the "idiot" in this scenario, not the "genius". Please understand my ego is very minimal but I wrote this in such a way the first sentence could be misconstrued if someone stopped there.
Napoleon?
> When you work for very intelligent and driven people, they tend to be disgusted with incompetence.
When you work for jerks, you mean. As a society, we tend to tolerate jerks who get results, but let's not hide the fact that those people are still jerks, and that behavior should be seen as something to avoid rather than emulate.
When you work for jerks, you mean. As a society, we tend to tolerate jerks who get results, but let's not hide the fact that those people are still jerks, and that behavior should be seen as something to avoid rather than emulate.
I've been on both sides of this coin. If someone's very driven and puts everything into their work, they're hard to work with because they set an unreasonable bar for everyone. And likewise, for that person, if feels like everyone else is slacking and you're being held back.
Yes, exactly. The only difference is the visual. Imagine an impossible coin that looks like a pin on one side and when flipped, a large platter on the other where the surface area of a coin's side equals experience in perspective. Then it reverses financially so you have the money and empathy going at opposite sides like oil and water.
What evidence can you provide that Elon is highly intelligent and skilled?
Really appears to have quite mediocre ability to me. Has focused on some quite interesting problems, but mostly his ability seems like PR/marketing.
Really appears to have quite mediocre ability to me. Has focused on some quite interesting problems, but mostly his ability seems like PR/marketing.
Cofounded PayPal...started a reusable rocket company in SpaceX. Brought electric cars to the mainstream with Tesla...was in a PhD physics program at Stanford and dropped out.
Like, those results don't qualify to you as someone who is intelligent and skilled?
Like, those results don't qualify to you as someone who is intelligent and skilled?
Not “most amazing human being to ever have lived” as the parent poster suggested, no.
I guess this isn’t the place to suggest it, but really in success like PayPal there is a large element of luck at play. He maybe reasonably smart, but the way some people treat him like the most amazing person who has ever lived is ridiculous.
I guess this isn’t the place to suggest it, but really in success like PayPal there is a large element of luck at play. He maybe reasonably smart, but the way some people treat him like the most amazing person who has ever lived is ridiculous.
sure "most amazing" is debatable
but that's not what you said. You said he is mediocre. What made you say he is mediocre?
but that's not what you said. You said he is mediocre. What made you say he is mediocre?
Hyperloop?
I don’t see this (or any of his other ideas) as coming from someone with an abnormal level of intelligence.
He may have the ability to hire people who can execute well on ideas (though I also think that Tesla’s achievement are over-hyped). He may have good business sense, and the ability to raise money. But I don’t see him as having an amazing intellect... so I’d be interested in evidence that shows that...
I don’t see this (or any of his other ideas) as coming from someone with an abnormal level of intelligence.
He may have the ability to hire people who can execute well on ideas (though I also think that Tesla’s achievement are over-hyped). He may have good business sense, and the ability to raise money. But I don’t see him as having an amazing intellect... so I’d be interested in evidence that shows that...
Nice!
So you look at Elon's entire history of ideas, and the one thing that caught your eye first was Hyperloop?
Why did you name the Hyperloop? Is Elon working on a Hyperloop company?
Those things you mentioned "hire people who execute well on ideas", "good business sense", "ability to raise money". Those are medicore skills?
We don't know each other in person, but from online-chatting with you, you sound like you have good intelligence. Can you do any of those?
So you look at Elon's entire history of ideas, and the one thing that caught your eye first was Hyperloop?
Why did you name the Hyperloop? Is Elon working on a Hyperloop company?
Those things you mentioned "hire people who execute well on ideas", "good business sense", "ability to raise money". Those are medicore skills?
We don't know each other in person, but from online-chatting with you, you sound like you have good intelligence. Can you do any of those?
Hyperloop is a mediocre (well, actually bad) idea. It indicates that Elon is not some genius level engineer.
I think you underestimate the degree to which luck plays a role in the development of companies.
I think you underestimate the degree to which luck plays a role in the development of companies.
Hyperloop as presented is a good idea, but perhaps not great idea.
High vacuums are expencive to maintain and take longer to achieve after a leak, but would allow for faster speeds. They also force maglev or something like it to achieve those speeds which is expensive. It also forces you to carry an indecent air supply, and cooling becomes a significant issue.
At STP you just have a normal train which is limited to a few hundred miles an hour.
Between those extremes you need to deal with some air but you can compress it for passengers. Further, you can quickly pump down the air pressure using fewer pumps. You can fly / use ground effect avoiding the mag lev issues.
Heat is really the largest issue, compressing air heats it as does friction, and your passengers / equipment also generate heat. So, you would want the air kept at very low temperates.
Why not just use nag lev? You get faster speeds and as strange as it sounds lower cost per mile of track.
TLDR; Lots of useful trade offs.
High vacuums are expencive to maintain and take longer to achieve after a leak, but would allow for faster speeds. They also force maglev or something like it to achieve those speeds which is expensive. It also forces you to carry an indecent air supply, and cooling becomes a significant issue.
At STP you just have a normal train which is limited to a few hundred miles an hour.
Between those extremes you need to deal with some air but you can compress it for passengers. Further, you can quickly pump down the air pressure using fewer pumps. You can fly / use ground effect avoiding the mag lev issues.
Heat is really the largest issue, compressing air heats it as does friction, and your passengers / equipment also generate heat. So, you would want the air kept at very low temperates.
Why not just use nag lev? You get faster speeds and as strange as it sounds lower cost per mile of track.
TLDR; Lots of useful trade offs.
I think you underestimate the degree to which skills and intelligence plays in building a company that goes to space.
You said "What evidence can you provide that Elon is highly intelligent and skilled?"
You sound like a 100% rational person who looks at only hard evidence, instead of making rash assumptions based on emotions.
What evidence can you provide that Elon is mediocre?
You sound like a 100% rational person who looks at only hard evidence, instead of making rash assumptions based on emotions.
What evidence can you provide that Elon is mediocre?
You’ve posted this same question/comment, 3 times in this thread (and I’ve answered it below). You seem to be taking this somewhat personally.
I find it worrying that “Elon is a hyper-intelligent Superman” seems so closely tied up with individual identity in some cases... I guess creating hero’s sometimes makes the universe easier to deal with. But it has an overall negative effect on SV culture.
I find it worrying that “Elon is a hyper-intelligent Superman” seems so closely tied up with individual identity in some cases... I guess creating hero’s sometimes makes the universe easier to deal with. But it has an overall negative effect on SV culture.
No you seem to be the one taking this personally. The topics you mentioned "superman" "alien" "individual identity" "hero" "universe"... seems like you are off on a tangent? I have no idea what you are talking about.
Even if you ignore all his other achievements, the man sent his car to Mars. And people are still sitting there going "meh, not impressed. Hyperloop. Average intelligence. Medicore".
THAT attitude has an overall negative effect on SV culture.
Even if you ignore all his other achievements, the man sent his car to Mars. And people are still sitting there going "meh, not impressed. Hyperloop. Average intelligence. Medicore".
THAT attitude has an overall negative effect on SV culture.
Large teams of people did those things not a single individual.
1. You literally just said "He may have the ability to hire people who can execute well". He hired those large teams of people.
2. I never said he alone takes all the credit. I would never say that. All I am saying is, maybe Elon is not mediocre?
Maybe give the guy a break? The guy worked his ass off and ended up flying his car to Mars. Is asking you to admit "Elon is not medicore" too much to ask? At what point do we say "hey, may be we have been too hard on Elon. Maybe all this negativity about his intelligence being mediocre is a little too much?"
2. I never said he alone takes all the credit. I would never say that. All I am saying is, maybe Elon is not mediocre?
Maybe give the guy a break? The guy worked his ass off and ended up flying his car to Mars. Is asking you to admit "Elon is not medicore" too much to ask? At what point do we say "hey, may be we have been too hard on Elon. Maybe all this negativity about his intelligence being mediocre is a little too much?"
Mediocre means average, at least this is the way I mean it. I’m sure there are many things I could use to criticize him, but I don’t think I have.
I just not really agree that he’s super-intelligent or a genius. Most of it seems like PR and marketing..
I just not really agree that he’s super-intelligent or a genius. Most of it seems like PR and marketing..
“if you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that“ - B. Obama
It was unfortunately phrased (allowing opposing parties to misrepresent the statement). But I think it’s a reasonably accurate statement. Companies, and other forms of progress, don’t come from individual effort alone. This is particularly true of science based startups, and the way modern companies are formed and developed (which relies on lots or hiring, lots of external funding, not profit driven).
"it was unfortunately phrased"? Why don't you just own up to it. You phrased the statement, "it" did not phrase itself.
You said several times Elon has "mediocre intelligence". I asked you questions about it, and you repeatedly clarified and doubled down on that statement multiple times. I don't see where the misrepresentation is. It seemed we are both pretty clear on each other's position, no?
Now you are saying others are "misrepresenting the statement"? Come on. What part did I misrepresent?
All those factors of company success you mentioned, like hiring, getting external funding, are all things Elon was responsible for. You literally just listed those exact things as things Elon is good at.
Maybe give Elon a break? Is that too much to ask?
You said several times Elon has "mediocre intelligence". I asked you questions about it, and you repeatedly clarified and doubled down on that statement multiple times. I don't see where the misrepresentation is. It seemed we are both pretty clear on each other's position, no?
Now you are saying others are "misrepresenting the statement"? Come on. What part did I misrepresent?
All those factors of company success you mentioned, like hiring, getting external funding, are all things Elon was responsible for. You literally just listed those exact things as things Elon is good at.
Maybe give Elon a break? Is that too much to ask?
You appear to have misunderstood which comment I’m replying to. My parent comment is a reply to the following quote by Barack Obama: “if you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that“.
If you take the time to google that quote, you’ll find it’s been used in opposition campaigns. I guess to suggest Obama is anti-business.
His phrasing, allowed his comment to be misrepresented, which is unfortunate.
If you take the time to google that quote, you’ll find it’s been used in opposition campaigns. I guess to suggest Obama is anti-business.
His phrasing, allowed his comment to be misrepresented, which is unfortunate.
what made you decide Elon has medicore ability? Because I am curious how one would arrive at that conclusion.
I don't know if he's super smart of mediocre and I think it's hard to judge from afar. But he does seem to make some bad decisions, like:
- The Boring Company - betting on self-driving tech - getting kicked out of Paypal - sleeping on his factory floor - trying to run 3-4 companies at once - SolarCity - claiming he wants to overengineer the tolerances on his cars - an iPad instead of a dashboard
Basically, I just see a lot of his decisions are not well thought out. His main skill seems to be getting people to give him money.
- The Boring Company - betting on self-driving tech - getting kicked out of Paypal - sleeping on his factory floor - trying to run 3-4 companies at once - SolarCity - claiming he wants to overengineer the tolerances on his cars - an iPad instead of a dashboard
Basically, I just see a lot of his decisions are not well thought out. His main skill seems to be getting people to give him money.
the departure of one pretty low level executive makes valid news now?
Waymo has established a multi-year technology advantage over Uber. The best objections to Waymo winning are three-fold:
1) Google doesn't have the user-facing apps - The reality is that Google has a far larger surface area than Uber to consumers. They own Calendar, Maps, Assistant, Android, Gmail and each of these can be entry points into self-driving. "I see you have an appointment in 15 minutes, want me to order you a cab?"
2) Google doesn't have experience operating a physical business - This is something they will have to learn. Google has the choice of partnering/purchasing if needed to build fleet operations companies. There are some unorthodox acquisitions to consider here (Avis?). However, Uber and Lyft do not really have this experience either.
3) Google doesn't have a great track record of incubating new businesses - Amazon has a far stronger track record than Uber of bringing up new lines of business.
With the mismanagement of Uber over the past years, Uber is at significant risk of missing the next technology wave, the way traditional taxi companies missed the last shift. Uber might be holding the equivalent of second-generation taxi medallions as the third generation takes off.