I didn't realize Ello was so young! One of my kids went from barely a reluctant reader to a proficient reader near the start of your lifetime then, I am deeply grateful we had tried so many things. Massive props.
In sum, the author proclaims that without human death, nothing people do has a time limit so people wouldn't have any incentive to do.
But this is false - even if we were a sovereign observer only, the universe is constantly changing and evolving, species go extinct, the seasons are never the same. And we are not just observers, we are also actors - we have opportunities to create today which will not be available in the future. You cannot create the Internet today, it already happened. You cannot spend arbitrary time traveling to and fro across the galaxy to talk to friends, the molten iron geyser you wanted to see at Betelgeuse will no longer be running by the time you get there. Perhaps time motivates us, but our death is not the only thing which limits time.
Already addressed: "While the family spells its last name with a B, the New York Times stylebook spells Hapsburg with a P, which brought no shortage of scolding emails upon publication."
My understanding is that it's an expected value based on coverage in each of the ensemble scenarios, not quite as simplified as "how many scenarios was there rain in this forecast cell".
At least for the US NWS: if 30 of 100 scenarios result in 50% shower coverage, and 70 out of 100 result in 0%, this is reported as 15% chance of rain. Which is exactly the same as 15 with 100% coverage and 85 with 0% coverage, or 100 with 15% coverage.
Understanding this, and digging further into the forecast, gives a better sense of whether you're likely to encounter widespread rainfall or spotty rainfall in your local area.
Why? Well, I really admire Jonas Heitala's documentation of his journey to find a layout that fit his aesthetic: https://www.jonashietala.se/blog/2023/11/02/i_designed_my_ow... . My layout isn't as extreme, it's still qwerty-ish, but I've been heavily inspired by his thorough analysis.
Super minimal finger travel. I have a 34-key layout personally, and while I give up the F-keys, everything else is not very difficult to access and I really love how little my fingers move.
It's OSS and self-hostable. And it's got a great UI and the most joyous technology I've ever had the pleasure of using. https://zulip.com/self-hosting/
I mean, we're already having democratized geoengineering: Make Sunsets (https://makesunsets.com/) allows you or anyone else to fund deploying high-altitude clouds for geocooling.
Note also that, on Linux, RSS is not guaranteed to be accurate: "For making accounting scalable, RSS related information are handled in an asynchronous manner and the value may not be very precise." [1]
A well reasoned article that fundamentally downplays both the pace of innovation and the exponential increase in capabilities per dollar happening over time. AI is rapidly accelerating its improvement rate, and I do believe its capabilities will continue growing exponentially.
In particular, GPT-2 to GPT-4 spans an increase from 'well read toddler' to 'average high school student' in just a few years, while simultaneously the computational cost of training less capable models goes down similarly.
Also worth noting: the article claims Stripe, another huge money raiser, had an obviously useful product. gdb, sometime-CTO of stripe and its fourth employee, is now president of OpenAI. And, most of all, the author doesn't remember how nonobvious Stripe's utility was in its early days, even in the tech scene: there were established ways to take people's money and it wasn't clear why Stripe had an offering worth switching to.
For an alternate take, I think https://situational-awareness.ai provides a well reasoned argument for the current status of AI innovation and growth rate, and addresses all of the points here on a general (though not OpenAI specific) way.
I don't think this is correct. As far as I understand it, Elon/SpaceX did attempt a previous investment in satellite internet, but it had died long before Starlink came to be in 2014.
I am curious why you avoid ads - personally I view them as a tremendous good for the world, helping people improve their lives by introducing them to products or even just ideas they didn't know existed.