> If china is in a great depression, then so is the rest of the world
And how did you arrive at this conclusion? US seems fine right now with record low unemployment, strong dollar, and increased factory activities. While detachment from China is already in progress, with China's export slumped 7.5% in May, which is atrocious since that number is compared from a year ago when China was in lockdown. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7po.... Fact is, the world is moving away from China, and it seems to be doing ok, but China is suffering from double digit decline in real estate/export/retail.
> The anti-china nonsense hasn't changed since the early 2000s with gordon chang
Yes, discount everything logical because of one pundit who is too early. Nevermind most of the business leaders this year have mentioned moving business/factories out of China as a long term plan.
> Watch the money
No, watch all the multinationals pull factories out of China. watch the increasing panic from normal Chinese citizen online video with respect to foreclosure/job loss/unemployment. then watch the money.
1.) China's unemployment rate is no where near comparable to europe's. China considers one employed if one has worked at least ONE hour a week. or if their family have land to farm.
2.) There's nothing comparable to what's happening to China right now, except for the Russia sanctions, where an entire economic engine (export, 25% of GDP) is being ripped out or shut down, by companies pulling factories out of China
3.) Blackstone and IMF have been plenty wrong before. also, there's no chance they don't at least use some part of the data from the Chinese's National office of statistics.
China IS in a Great Depression. The government is making the numbers seem a little bit better, but with 21% official youth unemployment rate - definitely higher since netizens have found that only 20% of this year's graduate has secured jobs, and 50% - 70% reduction in real estate listing prices, when real estate is 30% of China's economy and how local governments mostly gets funded, we will see retroactively that China entered its Great Depression in 2022.
China's PPP should reduce in half this year. It has seen massive layoffs from every industry (average 22% decline in revenue across all industries). It has seen 50% reduction in wages, even in stable positions like government offices. It has seen unpaid wages for anywhere from a few months up to a year!!
This is reinforced by 50% in price cuts in real estate listings in tier 1 cities, 10X increase in real estate inventory this year, and 90% physical retail decline
Meanwhile, China's solar industry is in rapid decline, dropping 40% in market cap y/y, due to overcapacity, falling price margins, bans on goods from China's Xinjiang region, and increased non-Chinese solar growth - US's solar industry seem to be on the rise. China's solar industry should follow similar trends as its electronics industry, with massive pullout of factories to other countries, and eventually only mostly servicing China's internal markets.
that's not how economics works. if that's the case, you would not see the Chinese governments (federal and local) doing desperate things to collect more revenues like:
- issuing massive traffic/parking tickets a year after, to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars, to commercial and normal drivers
- banks preventing normal withdrawals of money. often, deceased's children can't withdraw their parents savings, even with all the official documentations
Harvard Business Review will do a case study on Disney on how to best avoid tackling a new customer segment and piss off/insult your core users at the same time
here's the thing, humanity got lucky. there was a nonzero chance that china and the dictatorships could have triumphed. if China didn't botch the chance to overtake US in 2008 with a capable dictator. if China got its hands on many advanced US military technologies. if Russia didn't botch the Ukraine invasion. if covid didn't have a vaccine, except one that China developed.
I'm sure most of us are aware of the gulags that China ran in 2022, in the most prosperous city like Shanghai, with welded doors, lack of food, arbitrary killing of pets, moving their own citizens against their wills to camps or cells with no running water and unsanitary conditions. with cries in tall buildings from families in the middle of night for food. If. you haven't seen these things, go watch it online. Imagine if somehow China succeeded, and that's most of humanity's fate.
Actually US and China is disengaging, and we can already see what would happen if trade were to stop tomorrow, by what's happening now.
China June 2023: Massive reverse migration by laborers back to countryside, Shanghai population down 135k compared to 2021 https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3215126/s.... Physical retail closures up to 80%. Entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. Real estate prices dropping 30-50% in tier 1 cities. Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing having 50k+ used homes for sale in span of 2 months. Shipping containers pile up 7 stories in every port https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3210870/c....
One government sponsored number, vs multiple numbers pointing to China's economic decline, which multinationals check in order to gauge the real health of China's economy. Multinationals know the real numbers, which is why they're all leaving.
China is no longer the "world's factory". It will stagnate for 10+ years, similar to Japan's lost decades, but with worser birth rate than Japan today. It reported 8M babies in 2022, low that was last reached in 1940s.
We've never seen a large portion (25%+) of a large modern economy vanish in a span of a few years. (factories moving out, which decreases downstream economic activities such as real estate and retail).
de-dollarization is mainly happening with China, and it's only because Chinese economy is crashing fast (50% real estate price cut in matter of months, 100k+ housing inventory for sale in major tier 1 cities, 80% factory order decline from foreign companies), and it needs to have access to dollar to pay back its huge debt - 400% debt to gdp, and Guizhou just became the first Chinese province to declare bankruptcy last month.
Also, China's economy is crashing hard. China is now entering its third year of its own Great Depression, with 30% unemployment rate, 90% unemployment rate for new grads (it's so bad, Guangzhou government just sent 300k youth to countryside for a program), 80% retail collapse (entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen), 50% real estate price collapse. Guizhou is the first province to declare bankruptcy ever.
According to the office for national statistics in China, for jan/feb of 2023 http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202303/27/t20230327_38464161..., car manufacturing profits is down 41%. non-metal products manufacturing profits is down 39%. chemicals manufacturing profits is down 56%. electronics manufacturing profits is down 71%!! In fact, all businesses have dropped 22% in profit. Not to mention the 1M+ SMB that failed in the last 2 years.
Apple, dell, hp, lg, Kyocera are all shifting manufacturing out of China. Apple by 50% by 2025, Dell by 2027. It is estimated that China's portion of worldwide phone production will drop from 90% to 50% by 2025, and worldwide laptop production 70% to 30% by 2027.
According to the office for national statistics in China, for jan/feb of 2023 http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202303/27/t20230327_38464161..., car manufacturing profits is down 41%. non-metal products manufacturing profits is down 39%. chemicals manufacturing profits is down 56%. electronics manufacturing profits is down 71%. In fact, all businesses have dropped 22% in profit.
That's data with existing businesses. It's been reported that within the last 2 years, China has had 1M+ SMB closures.
Go watch unbiased Chinese citizen videos like https://www.youtube.com/@laobaixing-CN, https://www.youtube.com/@China559, https://www.youtube.com/@user-ii2lv3iq9rhttps://www.youtube.com/@zgbx if you want the truths. But I highly doubt you speak any mandarin, or for that matter, pay any attention to recent events coming out of China. Since otherwise you would know about Apple, dell, hp, lg, Kyocera currently shifting manufacturing out of China. Or how Guizhou just became the first Chinese state to file for bankruptcy. Or how Chinese government just raised retirement age from 60 to 65.
Both Baerbock and Macron are just there to milk China for whatever China has left. They both know China is now entering its third year of its own Great Depression, with 30% unemployment rate (even food delivery jobs are scarce now), 90% unemployment rate for new grads (it's so bad, Guangzhou government just sent 500k youth to countryside for a program), 80% retail collapse (entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen), 50% real estate price collapse, 40% export collapse. CCP can't hide this kind of economic collapse when Germany companies are closely watching the sales figures of cars and luxury goods of its own stores in China.
"The rules are aimed at weaning the United States off dependence on China for EV battery supply chains and are part of President Joe Biden's effort to make 50% of U.S. new vehicle sales by 2030 EVs or PHEVs."
Japanese and European car manufacturers can just source batteries from somewhere else other than China, then problem solved. Car/electronics manufacturers are already moving out of China at a rapid pace this year anyways. According to the office for national statistics in China, for jan/feb of 2023 http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202303/27/t20230327_38464161..., electronics manufacturing profits is down 71% and car manufacturing profits is down 41.7%, due to slacking demand. Smart to move sourcing early anyways, it looks like China is starting to be confirmed to help Russia militarily https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-is-find...
Actually, it would appear that Chinese EV manufacturers have not much place to go. EV market in China peaked at 2021. With regards to Europe, BYD only sold tens(!!) of cars in Germany in 2023, compared to thousands of Tesla cars sold.
And how did you arrive at this conclusion? US seems fine right now with record low unemployment, strong dollar, and increased factory activities. While detachment from China is already in progress, with China's export slumped 7.5% in May, which is atrocious since that number is compared from a year ago when China was in lockdown. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7po.... Fact is, the world is moving away from China, and it seems to be doing ok, but China is suffering from double digit decline in real estate/export/retail.
> The anti-china nonsense hasn't changed since the early 2000s with gordon chang
Yes, discount everything logical because of one pundit who is too early. Nevermind most of the business leaders this year have mentioned moving business/factories out of China as a long term plan.
> Watch the money
No, watch all the multinationals pull factories out of China. watch the increasing panic from normal Chinese citizen online video with respect to foreclosure/job loss/unemployment. then watch the money.