A persistent bias in prediction markets is pricing very non likely events as slightly more likely than they are. ie; a 1% event priced at 4%, etc, because people like to bet long shots.
Whether there is enough of a predictable bias there to snag enough low return high probability bets to beat the vig and not shift the markets I have not looked into in any way,but it is a known bias with them.
The real money to be made in prediction markets is being the ones with the actual knowledge which is arguably why they are useful and why for some topics, people find them abhorrent.
Location: US
Remote: Preferred
Willing to relocate: Possibly
FT?: Open to FTE for right opportunity, but prefer contracts (PT/FT flexible, C2H)
Technologies: Ruby/Rails, Python, Ops (Heroku/AWS/Docker), CI/CD, API Design, System Architecture, thoughtful experimentation. Some: React, IoT, bit o elm, ML, LLM ops and automation.
Senior/Staff Engineer with a deep focus on backend, ops, and architecture. Can also get in there and knock out frontend features if nec, but don't prefer architechting there. I build durable, scalable systems and have a knack for mentoring teams and leading projects.
I solve problems at every level of abstraction—from the 10,000-foot view down to the code you don't have to write. My first career as a social worker and policy statistician means I never forget the 'who' and 'why' behind the technology. I've been building for the web since '95 and have worked at every stage of startup, plus solo consulting.
I have a special love for complex system design, wrangling crappy third-party APIs, and hunting down really weird bugs. I can step in as a PM in a pinch, but I'd rather work with your great PMs.
Also open to short-term engagements around a specific issue (performance bottlenecks, test suite optimization, a particular stuck feature, etc) at a weekly rate.
I'm looking for a team that genuinely believes their work is making the world a bit better (or even... a lot!)
I hope this is corect - i do agree it has been a long and slow migration path and migrating is fairly easy - migrating python 2 to 3 code was fairly easy as well anyone could do it in their codebase, it remains a big deal and possibly very impactful to make such breaking changes to the behavior of primitives in mature ecosystems. How many gems does the average rails app have, okay they all need to be updated and they sohld be being updated for other reasons, I remain skeptical of how smooth the change is going to be over all ecosystem wise but time will tell.
I agree it has been a well advertised and loudly migration path and timeframe for it
FT?: Open to FTE, but prefer contracts (PT/FT flexible, C2H)
Technologies: Ruby on Rails, Python, Ops (Heroku/AWS/Docker), CI/CD, API Design, System Architecture, thoughtful experimentation. Some: React, IoT, bit o elm, ML, LLM ops and auotmation.
Senior/Staff Engineer with a deep focus on backend, ops, and architecture. I build durable, scalable systems and have a knack for mentoring teams and leading projects.
I solve problems at every level of abstraction—from the 10,000-foot view down to the code you don't have to write. My first career as a social worker and policy statistician means I never forget the 'who' and 'why' behind the technology. I've been building for the web since '95 and have worked at every stage of startup, plus solo consulting.
I have a special love for complex system design, wrangling crappy third-party APIs, and hunting down really weird bugs. I can step in as a PM in a pinch, but I'd rather work with your great PMs.
I'm looking for a team that genuinely believes their work is making the world a bit better (or even... a lot!)
Senior/Staff full-stack dev (lean more towards devops->backend than backend->frontend, but I can still sling some React components together and reduce your JS payload size). Technical Lead.
I excel at figuring out how to solve problems at all levels of abstraction (including what level of abstraction you should use), getting a solution in place, and then figuring out the feedback loops to iterate on that solution. Sometimes the most impactful code is the code you don't write.
I've been programming on the web since 1995, had a first career as a social worker and policy statistician, and have worked full-time as a coder for almost a decade now at all stages of startup as well as done solo consulting.
Especially enjoy API and system design, integrating with crappy systems, user research, and really weird bugs. Make a decent PM in a pinch, but would prefer you have great PMs. Enjoy mentoring and light mgr/people stuff.
Will give you more looks if you can tell me why what you are doing makes the world better, but you've got to really believe it.
Full on musk junta coup huh? Didnt have that on my bingo card exactly. Guess we'll really get to see if theres any rule of law in the US anymore or if its all completely as hollow as its looked for a long time.
I wish they picked different descriptors than various ox with turbo mini preview etc and some of them shockingly different (o1 preview versus o1 regular for example) just give us three or four buckets of combos of cheap and fast and good :p it’s to the point where I have to look up prices and abilities and decide on a model for every use case and realize I made a mistake in the one I was using the day before.
Senior/Staff full-stack dev (lean more towards devops->backend than backend->frontend, but I can still sling some React components together and reduce your JS payload size). Technical Lead.
I excel at figuring out how to solve problems at all levels of abstraction (including what level of abstraction you should use), getting a solution in place, and then figuring out the feedback loops to iterate on that solution. Sometimes the most impactful code is the code you don't write.
I've been programming on the web since 1995, had a first career as a social worker and policy statistician, and have worked full-time as a coder for almost a decade now at all stages of startup as well as done solo consulting.
Especially enjoy API and system design, integrating with crappy systems, user research, and really weird bugs. Make a decent PM in a pinch, but would prefer you have great PMs. Enjoy mentoring and light mgr/people stuff.
Will give you more looks if you can tell me why what you are doing makes the world better, but you've got to really believe it.
Disappointed they didn't even mention intentional data poisoning - we simply have no idea what trapdoors are being laid in training data yet to be ingested...
The strangest and worst job market I’ve ever seen. Negotiated going to contract only instead of full layoff but literally having trouble even getting interviews.
Know three good devs with over 15 years experience that are all pushing 6-9 months with no offers.
No one seems to know why it is so hard but universally across the board don’t know anyone who isn’t struggling even getting callbacks.
Senior full-stack dev (lean more towards devops->backend than backend->frontend, but I can still sling some React components together and reduce your JS payload size). Lately I've been loving Stimulus Reflex and playing with a lot of micropython/ESP32/IoT stuff.
I excel at figuring out how to solve problems at all levels of abstraction (including what level of abstraction you should use), getting a solution in place, and then figuring out the feedback loops to iterate on that solution. I'm the senior engineer that knows that most coding is coming to an understanding of what problem you are trying to solve. Sometimes the most impactful code is the code you don't write.
Trying to change the world, still parsing the source code. I've been programming on the web since 1995, had a first career as a social worker and policy statistician, and have worked full-time as a programmer for almost a decade now.
Especially enjoy API and system design, integrating with crappy systems, user research, and really weird bugs. Make a decent PM in a pinch, but would prefer you have great PMs.
Will give you more looks if you can tell me why what you are doing makes the world better, but you've got to really believe it in your heart.
I don't know why this was downvoted - i would agree that by and large people are falling in line and daring to speak up less than I've ever seen in 10+ years...
Senior full-stack dev (lean more towards devops->backend than backend->frontend, but I can still sling some React components together and reduce your JS payload size). Lately I've been loving Stimulus Reflex and playing with a lot of micropython/ESP32/IoT stuff.
I excel at figuring out how to solve problems at all levels of abstraction (including what level of abstraction you should use), getting a solution in place, and then figuring out the feedback loops to iterate on that solution. I'm the senior engineer that knows that most coding is coming to an understanding of what problem you are trying to solve. Sometimes the most impactful code is the code you don't write.
Trying to change the world, still parsing the source code. I've been programming on the web since 1995, had a first career as a social worker and policy statistician, and have worked full-time as a programmer for almost a decade now.
Especially enjoy API and system design, integrating with crappy systems, user research, and really weird bugs. Make a decent PM in a pinch, but would prefer you have great PMs.
Will give you more looks if you can tell me why what you are doing makes the world better, but you've got to really believe it in your heart.
Have no idea about cost. I don't have much of an ethical problem with killing and eating humanely and sustainably raised and cared for animals for a reasonable degree of those things, factory farming and assembly line slaughterhouses are not that. Better for the environment seems a no brainer given the ecological costs of the amount of meat we eat. I can't imagine it will be the same as in no difference at all, or undetectable, maybe it will even always be more delicious, but I think it's reasonable to think that for lots and lots of dishes with meat in it, it would pass a blind taste test.
Raw steak, maybe not. Beef stew or chicken curry or a burger - def...
I'm having trouble remembering a single time a very high profile CEO has been fired from a company that for all intents and purposes is running laps around competition at the moment...
I assume more info will come out, but it sounds more like a major ethics breach than a business only decision or even a "contentious relationship with the board" decision...
Whether there is enough of a predictable bias there to snag enough low return high probability bets to beat the vig and not shift the markets I have not looked into in any way,but it is a known bias with them.
The real money to be made in prediction markets is being the ones with the actual knowledge which is arguably why they are useful and why for some topics, people find them abhorrent.